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Thursday Night Games
15-7-1 in the tourney
For the first time all year, I feel like I'm in the old groove. But these lines are really tight. I would not recommend anyone taking last week's winnings and scaling their bets up across the board. Scale them back and save your money to go to war on one or two games. There are a few decent plays, though. Just don't overbet. For the rest of the games, I'm going to use a 1-5 scale with a 3 being an average size bet.
Texas AM -2 vs. Memphis 2*
I played Texas AM at -2 and I believe that was the right number to play them. I predicted the line would move to 3 and it has. Memphis might be the right side at +4 or more, but it would be hard for me to play them because their leading scorer Douglas-Roberts probably won't be much of a factor if he plays at all. Lean under because Calipari does have a history of slowing games down when he's playing scared. And I think he's probably a little scared here as this is the toughest matchup his team has had since before Christmas. Under might be worth a little look if you don't like a side, but I don't like playing side and total in the same game.
Tenn +5 vs. OSU 3***
Tenn moneyline 1/2 *
I'll take UT at 5 or better. I will even put a little on the moneyline for UT to win outright. OSU is a very soft favorite here and I think there is a good chance Tennessee wins outright. This is not a good matchup for Ohio State or, more specifically, for Greg Oden. Tennessee's big guys, Crews and Chism, will pull Oden away from the hoop because they (particularly Chism) is a threat to shoot the jumper and even a trey. Tenn. shoots so much from outside, and if Oden gets pulled away from hoop area, then OSU will lose its rebounding advantage. But the main reason I like UT is that the conditioning of the Buckeye kids is not good. I've seen these guys look gassed in the few games this season that they've played uptempo teams. Oden in particular is not suited for this kind of game. Go back and look at the tapes of the game when they played Florida and the first time they played UT. In the FLorida game, the whole team was gassed and in the UT game, they were gassed and Oden was the worst, bent over, clutching his knees and clearly not in peak condition. OSU can't have gotten so much more physically in condition playing the slow teams in the Big Ten. Besides, conditioning is done in the summer and through October...not in March. Tennessee wins by wearing people down. They are deep and they will run you at a fast pace the entire game. They want to make the game a frenzy. Their bad defense will give OSU a lot of points. But if the Vols are shooting well, I can foresee them actually pulling away in this game as OSU gets gassed in the 2nd half. If the Vols aren't hitting their shots, then of course they could get beat. But even so, I expect it to be close. I don't believe either one of these teams are good enough to be final four teams. OSU's record merited a #1 seed, but I don't think they truly are one of the top four teams in the tourney. Their performance against the best teams on their schedule this year (and I don't put Wisky on that list) don't merit making them a top four team in this tourney. My top five are Gtown, UCLA, Florida, KU, UNC, and TAM. So in a game of two teams like that, you have to take the dog or nothing. I have the Vols outright in my brackets in this game and I fully expect them to win this game. I'm taking the points and putting some on the moneyline. The line is five most places now and you might even get more before tip. Good night Big Ten.
UCLA -3 vs. Pitt 2*
I missed the boat on this one at -2 and hate not getting the best number. The matchup here is kind of quirky. Pitt is a little bigger, but UCLA a little faster. I'm not crazy about laying 3 here, but Pitt looks so weak to me at times and might just get exposed here. I would not lay 3.5 though. This line is tight and 3 is the top end of what I would pay for UCLA.
My opinion on the SIU-KU game is that SIU keeps it close for awhile and I'd consider an action bet on SIU +5.5 if I could get it for the first half. I think KU pulls away late and it finishes around the number. No bet for the game.
Back tomorrow with Friday's plays. If I were making the bets right now (and I'm not) I would be making a possible 4* play on the UNC-USC under, a 2* on UNLV and a 1 or 2** on Butler first half, depending on the number I get. I expect the UNC-USC total to climb a little more and when it gets to 152 or 3 or so, I'll come over the top on the under before tip.
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