That's not how I interpret the data, Beardown. Here we have a case in which a majority of bettors is on one side, yet the line is moving the other way. Some people call these "sharp" moves. I'm not saying all such moves are sharp or correct. But I'm hesitant to fade them.

You can go opposite any and all line moves, if you wish. But I'm more inclined to fade public moves (lines that are fueled by the majority) than moves fueled by the sharps.

To me, this was a red flag to not bet K-State. I didn't like DePaul either, so I passed.

F.uck. You were right Coast. Kansas State didn't care until 5 minutes left. 1-2 in NIT play. With one big loss.

10-8 NIT

Florida State +5
North Carolina State +7

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Florida State +5.5
OVER 151

I like your over tonight, Dolphin. This could be a good night for overs, using the Spring Solstice over angle. The theory here is that young females go into heat starting tonight, so the guys will want lots of chest-thumping efforts on offense and not too much later-needed energy wasted on defense. So you have that going for you. Which is nice.

Yes it was.

Tonight the dogs will howl

Syracuse +3.5 at Clemson
DePaul +7 at Air Force

Air Force -7

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Now that there are no more home games, do you think an underdog might actually cover (except for my De Paul play yesterday).

I was thinking about that yesterday when syracuse fouled with .01 seconds left so that they didn't cover.

_________________

Tuesday 3/27

Air Force +1.5
Miss. St. -1

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

I like Air Force.

I don't know what to say about MSU-WVU. WVU is all about shooting the three and they have played in MSG at least three times already this year.

Mississippi St -1.5 against West Virginia

Mississippi State seems to be one of those NIT specials. They are a young team who had problems early, got better as the season went on and are using the NIT as a springboard to a great sesaon next year. They are an athletic team with everyone being between 6-4 and 6-8. They play defense hard and have been playing well on O. WVU is an overachieving team. I don't like teams that rely on 3 point shooting when playing in a professional stadium. The perspective is different in a 20K stadium and it seems to throw them off. As I said before WVU has played in MSG this year so that may be diminished. However, I like the more athletic pressure D to prevail tonight.

Air Force +1 against Clemson

It's a battle of tempos. It seems to me that a slow it down team is more likely to impose its will on a fast paced team than the other way around. In addition Clemson is not a great fast paced team to begin with. AFA was the darlings of the early season and were absolutely horrible at the end. They seem to have regained that momentum. Clemson was also great prior to playing in the ACC. They never really recovered once they played big time competition.

Note on this game: It looks like Clemson is the overwhelming choice of bettors tonight...and yet that line has not moved. That should make you wonder why. Someone must like AFA other than me.

Yes Dolphin. There are some guys with deep pockets who like the Force. But I lean to Clem.

Miss State - West Va. UNDER 68, 1st half
This is a Final Four, after all. And I expect there to be a few nerves early. WVU hasn't had a game total this high all season. And their shooting away from Morgantown has been spotty at times. I've soured on full game unders. But this first halver looks appealing to me.

MSU-WVU OVER 75-1/2, 2nd half
Got the under in for the first half by 8. Now, will turn around and take OVER 75-1/2 2nd half. Pace has picked up and a foul fest is very possible.This gives us an effective game line of 135-1/2...a full 11 points under the closing game total of 146-1/2. Also, number should be 77.5 based on usual 47/53 splits. Seems like good value to me.

Clemson +2
Gotta do it. Not a good venue for the Flyboys, who seem to play 10 points better at home than they do on the road. Clem more athletic and stronger in the front; issue is whether they can defend through the shot clock and not give up layups or good looks at treys.

tough finish for MSU. Up 9 with 9 to go and they blow it.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Air Force -2-1/2, 2nd half
With AF down 8 at half, this sets up a 7.5 point middle across 0. Air Force doesn't abandon their system when theyre down. And Clemson's free throw woes could once again become a factor in the last 10 minutes. I don't think AF will win this straight up, but I do think it is going to go close to the wire. Clem is not a great finisher.

West Virginia +1
WV vs. Clemson under 64 ( 1st half )

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Clemson -4, 2nd half
They may not win, but I think they make the game interesting.

Nice call Chus on the Eers. That late Clem run gives me a 4-1 week and closes me out at 5-3 for the NIT. Now back to the important games........

The law of averages says that I was due.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way