3-1 yesterday on straight plays
18-8-1 NCAA Tourney

Sorry guys tied up today. I see we don't agree today. I don't like that, but gotta go with what I believe. I am using my 1-5 star system again in which a 3*** is my standard bet. That does not mean it's 3 units...it means it's the same essential bet I've been making most of the season. I have one of those today and a few a bit smaller. My favorite play of the day is:

USC-UNC UNDER 152-1/2 3***
I was waiting to see how high this would climb. If this got to 154 or so, I was prepared to step out and increase my bet size on it. At 152-1/2, I'll keep it a standard play. Floyd will have some kind of "special" defense for Carolina...probably trying to contain Lawson by doubleteaming the ball, pressuring the ball and certainly trying to eliminate transition points. He has to know he's not going to win a track meet with these guys. USC is a solid defensive team, holding opponents to under 40% shooting. And Carolina isn't far behind. These teams will match up with each other pretty well and with USC trying to keep this a half court game, I see the defenses rising to the occasion. Carolina is a great team when they score in transition. If they have to play a half-court game, they aren't nearly so dominant. Thus, I also like...

USC +9 , 2**
If Floyd is successful and the Trojans execute their defensive schemes and keep this a half court game, then I like their offensive efficiency in the half court every bit as much as I like Carolina's. In fact, if USC can limit UNC to less than 10 points in transition (not an easy feat) the Trojans might just be in this to the wire or even win.

UNLV +4, -120 2**
UNLV-Oregon UNDER 141 2**
Similar thinking here. When Vegas plays with energy (which they do most of the time) they are a very good defensive team. They will try to score in transition off of the defense but are patient when they are in their half court offense. They have a great defensive center in Joel Anthony (who alternates with Gaston Essengue). If Kevin Krueger is "on" UNLV wins the game easily. Oregon is almost always an undisciplined team and although they have great talent this year, UNLV matches up well with them. I think the total of 141 is simply too high for the kind of game I expect this to be. I have never been a big Ernie Kent fan and like Kruger to outcoach him here with a defensive scheme to stop Brooks' penetration and keep the Ducks from shooting a high % from long-range. If you do those two things, and make it a half court game, then just like the USC scheme above, I like the dog to keep the pace down and execute at a greater efficiency in the half court. If the Ducks score 10 or less points in transition (which will be difficult to achieve) I will be shocked if they win this game.

Georgetown -6-1/2, 2nd half 2**
Believe Gtown wins this game (down 8 at the half). Everything went right for Vandy and the big guy hasn't passed go yet. This will essentially give me +1-1/2 for the game.

North Carolina - 8 2nd half, 2**
Another favorite trailing at half. Down 9 at half, this sets up an 11 pt. middle. If form holds, Tarheels win but don't cover.

Glad I took the Heels. USC gave it all up and lost a piece of the middle by 1 pt. Big swing there. And why did UNLV foul with 0.5? Turned a miracle cover into a miracle push. 3-2-1 brings the tourney record to 21-10-2.

Oh. And did I say I thought Tim Floyd was a good coach? I retract it all. Good coaches do NOT lose their cool and get technical fouls by throwing shit on the floor down 6 with a minute to go. That's nutjob material. All the FTs and possession after the T was what cost this cover. Tim cost me $$ big time tonight and spoiled a very rare middle.

I'll bet you want to choke Tim Floyd for costing you that middle Coast. Ass hole. That game wasn't over. Down 6 with 40 seconds. Stranger things have happened. He throws shit on the court.

I was writing it above the same time you were, Beardown. Strangle is one word for it.

Yeah. I had nothing on it but I was rooting for you. What a jerk Floyd is. Do you ever see coaches do that? With the game that close? Never. Maybe down 20 you'll see a coach go nuts for the hell of it. But how does his team look at him when he does that. He's out of control.

Saturday is tough. Don't know what I will do, if anything. I DO know I will be on Georgetown and Florida on Sunday. I may step out on Florida, depending on the #.

Florida -6.5 o/u 141.5

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Leans today to Memphis, Memphis over, UCLA and UCLA under, but I'm not playing any of those. Just one small play today on a first half total. If there is a margin in these games at half, I'll be considering 2nd half plays. I think both games will be close, so if one team has spurted to a first half lead, I'll be looking for value on the other side at halftime.

UCLA-Kansas UNDER 60, 1st half 2*
Kansas is the #1 defensive efficiency team in the nation and UCLA is #2. Total is pinched to the under a bit because of this. These teams have come out in each tourney game with defenses in focus. UCLA has held its three tourney opponents to just 19.3 points combined in the first half and their average total at the half is 49. The three KU games in the tourney have averaged 65 points, but none of the opponents were in UCLA's class defensively. And when KU did play one solid defensive team, SIU, the two teams combined for just 51 in the first half.

UCLA is doing the same thing they did last year during their run to the title game. They are locking opponents down. And KU has not allowed a single team all year to shoot over 50% amd teams shoot just 37.3% against them. They also outrebound opponents by 7.3/game. So with the way UCLA is struggling on the offensive end, they likely won't get many second chances. This is a HUGE game and even though these are great teams, it won't be a surprise to see these guys come out tight and play a defensive grinder early. Things might open up in the second half as they often do with these teams. And staying away from the game under keeps me away from a possible foul fest in a close game.

0-1 yesterday. First losing day of the tourney. Should have played all my leans.

Florida -7, -120 4****
A little more than the usual amount on the Gators. They have been in a few wars against teams that control tempo. Oregon will play even faster than Florida and I think this is the perfect matchup for the Gators. Can Catron and Leunen and match up with Horford and Noah? I don't think so. Gators also have the quickness in the backcourt to hopefully stymie Brooks' relentless drives to the rack.

Georgetown +4, -120 2*
I have Georgetown winning the whole thing and like their matchup here against Carolina. I will take JTIII over Roy, I'll take Hibbert's experience in the post over Hansborough and I'll take Jeff Green as the best player on the floor over all the over-hyped kids on the Carolina roster. Upset special. Outright babeeeee. That's what I think, but this is a bit smaller than the usual bet, so it's not like i think it's a L or anything........

Also putting a small piece parlaying Georgetown on the moneyline with Florida - for a 4/1 payoff.

Well that Flordia was one you probably didn't deserve coast. They fouled the kid with 1 second left to get you the cover. Takes the sting away from Floyd a little.

I suppose there are some who could argue that a last second FT is a bad beat/lucky win. But that would ignore what happened in the 40 minutes before that. Fla missed a lot of FTs down the stretch. Shouldn't have been that close to start with. I'll take it though. COmpensates for the lost cover on UNLV two nights ago vs. Oregon on a last second foul.

But what about the HOYAS!!!!!!!!! I love that team. Hard nosed D, a great outside shooter in Wallace, a big guy who can dominate against most, and an MVP type in Green who can score when you need one. Their D locked down Carolina down the stretch and their experience won out over the kids who were chucking up shots out of rhythmn. And JT III badly outcoached Roy Williams. Absolutely smoked him. Carolina just didn't find an easy shot down the stretch and that goes straight to coaching and execution.

Final Four Line opened at OSU -1, but I missed getting GT +1. Sharps pounded GT real fast. Was able to get down with 3*** on Georgetown ML. Line is moving fast and probably will be GT -1 tomorrow across the board and might be -2 or more by week's end. Will look to add to my position should OSU bettors push line back the other way.

Florida opened -3-1/2 vs. UCLA. I like the Bruins in that one, but will wait and see which way the wind is blowing. Will try to buy best number if I can.

My G'town at 25-1 ticket is looking pretty good now. If they beat the Luckeyes, then I will take the Fla/UCLA winner on the ML for a nice hedge.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

If Florida plays Georgetown there won't be a good money line for a Florida play. Flordia will be favored. It will probably be Georgetown +120 or +130 for your money line play.

But still nice bet Chus. I hope that 25-1 comes in for you.

I have a feeling that Georgetown OSU game will end up a pickem. I like Georgetown in that one for the same reason I liked them versus UNC, experience versus youth.

I LOVE UCLA for the straight up win and I will most likely LOVE them in the championship game.

I ended up taking the over in Florida versus Oregon which came in nicely with a couple of minutes left in the game. I went outside to call my son inside. Me neighbor engaged me in a conversation and would not let me out of it. Finally, I got back inside to see the second game already started. Talk about frustration.

yep. it looks like it's been a pretty good tournament for the boys.

If you look at the current odds to win the tourney, you can figure out who would be favored in any matchup...

Florida +165
Georgetown +345
UCLA +365
Ohio State +365

Final Four
23-11-2 in the NCAA Tourney
It's been a profitable tourney and I have three of my projected final four (Didn't plan on Ohio State making it this far). My brackets all have Georgetown beating UCLA in the final game and I like that as much as I did two weeks ago when I made the picks.

Georgetown PICK vs. Ohio State 4****
The line is now pick at most places. This line may be priced properly considering their power ratings, but I don't like the way Ohio State has been playing in the half court. And I expect this to be a half court game. I see the total rising as people expect this game to be high scoring, but that might be because these teams are coming off successive track meets. This game should be nothing like the open court UNC-GT, OSU-Tenn or OSU-Memphis track meets. If Joe Public keeps pounding the over and pushes this a few points higher today, I might come UNDER on this game too.

OSU showed me some issues in the way they played in the half court with Xavier. X outplayed them on both ends, but particularly when OSU played defense. X could not close the deal, but as discussed earlier, they should have won that game. OSU certainly will be well-prepared for GT's somewhat Princeton-like offense, but GT has been tremendously efficient in the half court. In fact, while we think about GT being a good defensive team, they are #1 in the nation in offensive efficiency, averaging 1.25 points per possession for the season. We may think OSU is great defensively because of how they played against Big Ten teams, but let's not forget this was a horrible year for Big Ten offenses. OSU showed so many holes defensively against Xavier in the half court game and against Tennessee in fast break opportunities. And let's not forget that Memphis had OSU by the short hairs also until that ridiculous intentional foul. GT's coach Thompson is having a great tournament and is showing he can outcoach the big names. I believe he will have a plan to exploit the Buckeyes' D. Oden vs. Hibbert should be a great matchup and which big guy gets in foul trouble first will be a major factor in this game. Georgetown is likely the "public" side today as people will remember what they did to "America's team", the Tar Heels. But the donkey sides sometimes win, too. Stay tuned for a possible small under play here. If this total goes to 133, I'll buy the limbo.

UCLA +3 vs. FLorida 3***
Florida has been unimpressive for most of this tournament, struggling vs. Purdue, Butler and Oregon. They have had huge assistance from the refs along the way. Forget last year's Gators team and focus just on this one. They have not been terribly impressive and based on this tournament alone, I think they are over-valued in this spot. UCLA may have played the best single game of the tournament in its waxing of Kansas. Their win over Pitt was very impressive too. It's all about the D for UCLA and Florida really hasn't seen a defense like this. UCLA's defense is Purdue times ten. Noah and Horford are not going to get those little uncontested jump hooks like they've been during much of the tourney. And after a year to consider what went wrong in last year's championship game, I suspect Howland will have a few new wrinkles on both ends of the floor. I get the better defensive team getting points. No opinion on the total here. I expect it to be a UCLA grinder style of game, but see no value in the number. I like UCLA to win this game outright but will play it with the points for my major bet on this game.

1* Georgetown ML/UCLA ML 3.94/1
I'm not actually going to put this in as one parlay bet that pays 3.58/1. If GT wins game one, then I will take the original GT outlay and the winnings and roll them into the 2nd leg UCLA ML play. Assuming the UCLA line stays where it is (+140 ML), betting these as two separate bets will return 3.94/1. It would be easier to set this up as an if bet, but most places won't allow the 2nd leg of an if bet to be larger than the winnings of the first leg....which prevents people from constructing a parlay as I'm doing here.

Lines bouncing around; GT goes to -1 and Florida goes to 3.5 then back to 3.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

OSU +1.5 (2nd half)

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Florida -4 (-120)

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

APB for C2C and Good, Dolphin.


I'm hoping GD is all over OSU.

sorry guys, was very busy today.

Ohio State +5, -120 2**
Under 65, 1st half 2**
If I were playing the moneyline, I'd have a lean to the Gators, but I think this is too many points to be giving an OSU team that has lost three games all year...all to #1 and #2 seeds on the road. Sure, I can understand the argument that FLorida is a "better" team, but they are not 4.5 points better. I also understand the argument that some make that they just want to pick the winner. I don't subscribe to that theory. Every point matters. AT pick, I'd play FLorida. At +4.5, I play OSU. This isn't the best bet I've made all year and it's not even a normal size bet of 3***. But I believe at this price, OSU is the play.

I think that OSU needs to make this a half-court game, but I don't really think they are going to play slow down. I think both teams will run their offenses. However, the history of these teams in the tourney is that the defenses show up early and the offenses go nuts in the second half. I think with the nerves of the Champ. game, these teams come out a little tight and do some early probing. I'm looking for another 25 point first ten minutes before the scoring opens up. Thus, I'll play under first half.

You could have been nice and said you would fade me...and then given your pick.

I got into my car to come home from work as they were handing out the trophy. I had to spend a long ride home listening to Billy Packer and John Thompson stroke Joakim Noah.