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PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2011 8:42 pm 
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Keyser Soze wrote:
The Arizona Fall League is a hitters paradise. There were 7 home runs hit in that game. That's why most teams shy away from sending their top pitching prospects to the AFL because they're afraid they'll get shell-shocked.

The Nats sent Stras there didn't they?

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2011 8:50 pm 
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They did but that was a case of him not pitching all summer because he signed late. Still logged a total of 19 innings with a 4.26 ERA


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2011 9:27 pm 
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Urlacher's missing neck wrote:
Vitters hit 2 bombs to kick off the Arizona Fall League. Not a damn thing wrong with that. Great to see. This is usually a very solid league of prospects.

I haven't given up on Vitters yet. He's still to young and the light may still go on.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 9:39 am 
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Vitters...you guys don't disappoint

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 11:26 am 
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good dolphin wrote:
Vitters...you guys don't disappoint


The Cubs let their bad minor leaguers toil in the minor leagues.

The White Sox start them at second base.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 11:30 am 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
The Cubs let their bad minor leaguers toil in the minor leagues.

I get what you are saying about Beckahm, but this statement is 100% false;

Campana, Diamond, Shark, D.J. LeMahieu, Coleman, Justin Berg....
And that is just guys who played with the Cubs in 2011.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 11:33 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
The Cubs let their bad minor leaguers toil in the minor leagues.

I get what you are saying about Beckahm, but this statement is 100% false;

Campana, Diamond, Shark, D.J. LeMahieu, Coleman, Justin Berg....
And that is just guys who played with the Cubs in 2011.

Which of those do you consider bad minor leaguers?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 11:34 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
The Cubs let their bad minor leaguers toil in the minor leagues.

I get what you are saying about Beckahm, but this statement is 100% false;

Campana, Diamond, Shark, D.J. LeMahieu, Coleman, Justin Berg....
And that is just guys who played with the Cubs in 2011.


I was sacrificing accuracy for humorous cadence.

You forgot Colvin.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 12:09 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
The Cubs let their bad minor leaguers toil in the minor leagues.

I get what you are saying about Beckahm, but this statement is 100% false;

Campana, Diamond, Shark, D.J. LeMahieu, Coleman, Justin Berg....
And that is just guys who played with the Cubs in 2011.


I was sacrificing accuracy for humorous cadence.

You forgot Colvin.


I got it. I was going to respond with something about Chris Getz before the joke was deflated

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 12:36 pm 
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Ugh. I'd have rather they kept Chris Getz compared to Teahan and his $15million.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 7:33 pm 
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Lake had a nice day in the fall league. 3-4 with a HR. Carpenter threw 2 scoreless as well. Vitters looks to have had the day off but went in at the very end to play defense.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 7:49 pm 
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Urlacher's missing neck wrote:
Lake had a nice day in the fall league. 3-4 with a HR. Carpenter threw 2 scoreless as well. Vitters looks to have had the day off but went in at the very end to play defense.



Top 5 Cubs Shortstop Prospects

Matt Swain on 02.16.10 at 7:20 PM | no comments |

4. Junior Lake, 20, A Peoria


An enigma wrapped in a riddle, Lake was seen as Castro's equal after the 2008 season, when they were teammates in Arizona. They both hit fairly well and were seen as possible breakouts. Castro did, Lake didn't.


After a season with 18 BBs and 138 Ks, it may strike you as odd that Lake is any kind of prospect still. And it is odd. But the kid has some serious ability. In batting practice, he crushes line-drives. In the field, he shows an almost unmatched throwing arm from shortstop along with excellent athleticism. He's got a skinny frame and a face that looks 16 years old.


Of course, all that said, he needs to produce. And it's doubtful if he ever will. He got a bad reputation in Peoria last year for being lazy and making dumb plays in the field, and had some serious problems communicating with the coaching staff. He swings at anything and everything, and doesn't apologize for it.


With a .248/.276/.365 line, it's easy to want to just write off Junior Lake. But if somehow the light goes on, he has the capacity to make you look silly for doing so.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 7:53 pm 
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Vitters was 0-4 with 2 K's.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 7:55 pm 
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He hit very well in Daytona and made it up to AA. He has some size on him for being 21. 6'3 215. Overall this year he hit .280 with 12 Hr and 58 Rbi. 109 k's and 19 walks. There is still potential.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 8:01 pm 
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Breakout Season for Jeff Beliveau

Matt Swain on 08.10.10 at 10:34 AM | no comments |

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When the Cubs tabbed lefty reliever Jeff Beliveau with their 18th round pick in the 2008 draft, it certainly wasn't based on his college stats.

In his junior year at Florida Atlantic, Beliveau was 5-4 with a 4.58 ERA and 78 Ks in 76.2 IP, which are respectable. Amazingly though, he also issued 77 walks.

I'll repeat that for emphasis: in the Sun Belt conference, Jeff Beliveau walked more than a batter per inning. AND got drafted.

To start his pro career it was more of the same, as he doled out 28 BBs in 34.2 IP for Boise. Armed with a low-90's fastball and a true swing-and-miss curveball, it was clear from the beginning that Beliveau's main nemesis would be his lack of command.

And here just two years later, Beliveau has seemingly vanquished it permanently.

Year Age Tm Lev W L ERA IP WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2008 21 2 Teams A--Rk 2 1 2.80 35.1 1.557 6.6 0.3 7.4 13.2 1.79
2009 22 Peoria A 5 4 3.54 96.2 1.262 7.2 0.5 4.2 10.9 2.60
2010 23 2 Teams A+-A 3 1 2.68 53.2 1.193 6.5 0.8 4.2 13.8 3.28
3 Seasons 10 6 3.15 185.2 1.298 6.9 0.5 4.8 12.2 2.54


Over his last 18.2 IP, Beliveau has struck out 35 batters while walking only 6. He's managed this year to maintain his dominace in missing bats while cutting his walks by about 3 per 9 innings over his 2008 season.

At 23 he's a little old for his league and is in a pitcher friendly environment, so I do reserve concerns that these stats are misrepresenting his real performance, but there's definitely reason to be cautiously optimistic about his showing this year.

Its been a big breakout for Beliveau, who now figures to be a big piece of the Cubs bullpen future. He's still at least a season away, and there's always the possibility that his control problems rear their head again, but for now he's certainly put himself on top of the Cubs relief prospect heap.


This LH looks interesting. Also in the Arizona Fall League

2011 stats: 2011 24 2 Teams 2 Lgs AA-A+ 53 games 74.1 IP ERA 1.57 WHIP .928 K's 89 BB 19


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 8:06 pm 
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Beliveau was off my radar. He had a tremendous season though. If you can pitch like that in AA you can probably pitch like that in AAA and get a shot at the show.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 8:43 pm 
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Urlacher's missing neck wrote:
Beliveau was off my radar. He had a tremendous season though. If you can pitch like that in AA you can probably pitch like that in AAA and get a shot at the show.

Just goes to show they need a GM who can build through the system, unlike Hendry. That's why I want Freidman. I doubt he'd leave Tampa though.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 08, 2011 12:20 am 
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Because I feel some ownership of this thread, and it's not run my mults or idiots, here you go.

Bob Engle drafted Halladay and Carpenter in Toronto. With Seattle, he signed 16-year-old Felix Hernandez. Remarkable scout

I thought this was my guy Tim Wilken? It would seem Bob Engle, who's been mentioned here previously, could be responsible for some of these successes. Don't get me wrong, I want Wilken to be a baseball genius. But this was an interesting tweet. Say what you will about the FaceTwat Universe, but it's the way many things are now communicated. :cry:

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 08, 2011 9:19 am 
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Bob Engle was the scouting director and Wilkin was the crosschecker when those guys were drafted. Wilken was named scouting director after those picks.

The crosschecker has a big say in who is ultimitely drafted but the scouting director gets the credit.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2011 10:54 am 
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Brett Jackson batting .355 (11-for-31) with 1 HR, 2 2Bs in 7 G w/Team USA. Jeff Beliveau 6 Ks, 0 R in 3 IPs over 2 games

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2011 8:00 pm 
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In case anyone is bored....a story on Dunston jr.

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/articl ... c&c_id=chc

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2011 8:04 pm 
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Urlacher's missing neck wrote:
In case anyone is bored....a story on Dunston jr.

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/articl ... c&c_id=chc


Darkside thinks this article is extremely average at best.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2011 8:52 pm 
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Urlacher's missing neck wrote:
In case anyone is bored....a story on Dunston jr.

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/articl ... c&c_id=chc

Nice read - thanks!


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 15, 2011 10:00 am 
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Vitters hitting .401 with 2 HR, 10 RBI and a 1.074 OPS though 9 games in AFL.

At least the kid (just turned 22) still has a pulse.

He's also listed as an OF now as they've been playing him in 3-4 different positions since he doesn't have much of a glove at 3rd base.

Cashner has hit 100 MPH.

Jeff Beliveau kicking ass: 1 ER in 17.1 IP with 6 BB and 20 K's.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 15, 2011 10:27 am 
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cpguy wrote:
Vitters hitting .401 with 2 HR, 10 RBI and a 1.074 OPS though 9 games in AFL.

At least the kid (just turned 22) still has a pulse.

He's also listed as an OF now as they've been playing him in 3-4 different positions since he doesn't have much of a glove at 3rd base.

Cashner has hit 100 MPH.

Jeff Beliveau kicking ass: 1 ER in 17.1 IP with 6 BB and 20 K's.


I was looking through the AZL stats and couldn't find anything on Beliveau. If those stats are correct that is awesome but 17.1 is a hell of alot of innings for a reliever to pitch in just 9 games. That is damn near like a starter throwing to CG's 2 straight starts.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 15, 2011 10:47 am 
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Urlacher's missing neck wrote:
cpguy wrote:
Vitters hitting .401 with 2 HR, 10 RBI and a 1.074 OPS though 9 games in AFL.

At least the kid (just turned 22) still has a pulse.

He's also listed as an OF now as they've been playing him in 3-4 different positions since he doesn't have much of a glove at 3rd base.

Cashner has hit 100 MPH.

Jeff Beliveau kicking ass: 1 ER in 17.1 IP with 6 BB and 20 K's.


I was looking through the AZL stats and couldn't find anything on Beliveau. If those stats are correct that is awesome but 17.1 is a hell of alot of innings for a reliever to pitch in just 9 games. That is damn near like a starter throwing to CG's 2 straight starts.

My bad, that was his FSL stats. Sorry.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:41 am 
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By John Arguello, October 22, 2011 at 11:03 pm
Brett Jackson
Worried about who the Cubs might give up for compensation? This is the summary of all the prospect lists I have done so far and will give you an idea of the prospects in the Cubs system. I'm not a big fan of ranking prospects, but I do understand that it gives people some idea. Please understand, though, that while Ben Wells is 7th and Chris Rusin is 25th, Rusin has a far better chance of reaching his potential than Wells does. It's just that his potential is much less.

Some pitchers, Dae Un Rhee or Jeffrey Antigua, are ranked lower because of their high risk factor but they each have the potential to be at least a #3 starter -- the same as Trey McNutt who ranks 6th. The same goes for a position player like Junior Lake, who has a lot of natural ability but is much less likely to be a solid regular than say, Josh Vitters. Prospects who still have big questions to answer were generally ranked lower but could move up quickly once those questions are answered.

Pitchers with starting potential are generally valued higher than relievers, since relief is always a fall back for prospects that don't make it as starters.

So, for all those reasons, lists are difficult to make. There are so many variables. This list is compiled from a combination of personal observations, research, and outside opinions. In the end, though, lists are made to be up for debate...so debate away.

1.Brett Jackson, CF (AAA): All-around skills, Good OBP, strikes out too a bit too much
2.Javier Baez, SS-3B (A-): Tremendous bat speed, power potential, good defense despite throwing yips
3.Matt Szczur, CF (A+): Among fastest in system, developing power and defense, needs more patience
4.Jeimer Candelario, 3B-1B (DSL): Ranks with Baez among the top hitters in the system, defense a concern
5.Reggie Golden, RF (A-): Ron Gant type potential, good power, arm for RF, contact an issue.
6.Trey McNutt, SP (AA): Righty, Mid 90s fastball, hard breaking ball, needs to regain command
7.Ben Wells SP (A-): Righty, A heavy 93-94 mph sinker is legit out pitch, rest of repertoire still raw
8.Josh Vitters, 3B, IB, OF? (AA): Natural hitter but relative lack of defense, power, and discipline hold him back. Has the arm to play RF if Cubs decide to try him there.
9.Rafael Dolis, RP (AA): Upper 90s fastball, filthy slider, mediocre command
10.Chris Carpenter, RP (AAA): See above, though Carpenter throws even harder.
11.Dan Vogelbach, 1B, (A-): Top power potential in system, short stroke, weight a concern
12.Dillon Maples, SP (hasn't played) : Righty, potental power front line starter but needs to work on delivery and command before he gets rated higher.
13.Marco Hernandez, SS, (A-): Athletic SS with good bat, good speed and 15 HR potential
14.Logan Watkins, SS-2B-OF (A+): Gritty, athletic player who may stick at SS, Good OBP skills with speed.
15.DJ LeMahieu, 3B-2B (AAA): Contact hitter with improving defense. Needs to develop OBP skills and/or power
16.Ryan Flaherty, IF-OF (AAA): Intelligent, super-sub type with decent OBP skills Long swing could be an issue. Already 25 years old.
17.Welington Castillo, C (AAA): Solid defensive skills, excellent arm and improving offense
18.Zeke DeVoss, 2B-OF, ( A-): Extremely fast player with outstanding OBP skills and potential for some gap power. May stick at 2B.
19.Gioskar Amaya, 3B-2B (A-): Outstanding hitting prospect, one of the top 5 pure hitters in the organization, has gap power, defense needs work, possible tweener
20.Pin-Chieh Chen, CF(A-): Another very fast player and hitter who makes hard contact, small frame, no power potential. Lots of range in CF.
21.Jeffrey Beliveau, RP (AA): Tough lefty reliever with good chance to make team this spring
22.Dae Un Rhee, SP (AA): TJ survivor with great change who’s throwing in the mid 90s again. Has been inconsistent with command. Breakout candidate for 2012.
23.Junior Lake, SS-3B (AA): Toolsy player with less discipline than Vitters. Has boom or bust potential.
24.Jae-Hoon Ha, OF (AA): Excellent arm and solid tools across the board, lacks plate discipline
25.Chris Rusin, SP (AAA): Finesse lefty with great command, more of a 4th, 5th starter.
26.Nick Struck, SP (AAA): Bulldog mentality, average to above average stuff but locates well
27.Eric Jokisch: SP (AA) Another finesse lefty, similar to Rusin in size and command
28.Jeffrey Antigua: SP (A+) Young lefty with better stuff than Rusin or Jokisch, plagued by inconsistency
29.Steve Clevenger: C (AAA) Solid contact hitter. Lefty bat likely ensures him a long career as backup.
30.Dustin Geiger: 3B (A) Good bat and has power potential. Very solid defense at 3B. Still growing, will need more discipline at higher levels


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:47 am 
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By John Arguello, October 17, 2011 at 1:58 pm

Yesterday we talked about the Arizona Fall League but today the focus is on three lefties who are also playing excellent baseball this fall: Bryan LaHair, Brett Jackson and Jeff Beliveau.

Bryan LaHair is tearing up the Venezuelan League, hitting 4 HRs in 5 games while batting .381 and posting a 1.482 OPS. While the pitching isn't anywhere near major league quality, the league is an interesting mix of major leaguers, both former and current, and upper level minor leaguers, so it isn't as if LaHair is doing this against kids.

Just a little further north in Panama, Brett Jackson hit .412 with 1 HR for Team USA and displayed the all-around skills that has Cubs fans excited to have him in the lineup. His slash line in 34 ABs was .412/.462/.588. He also stole a base.

Lefty Reliever Jeff Beliveau also impressed for Team USA. Beliveau was 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA. He had one walk in 4.1 innings versus 7 Ks. Teams batted just .188 against him.

Depending on what the Cubs do this offseason, all 3 players have excellent shots at making the 2012 Cubs opening day roster.

LaHair and Jackson would provide the Cubs with some sorely needed OBP and slugging from the left side, particularly if Carlos Pena departs. If Pena stays, it's possible LaHair could join Jackson in the OF, giving the Cubs three lefties who can provide them with some much needed patience and power.

Beliveau has to be the favorite to take John Grabow's spot as the 3rd lefty in the bullpen behind Sean Marshall and Jeff Russell.

It appears that from AZ to Panama to Venezuela, Cubs prospects are beginning to deliver on the big stage.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 30, 2011 9:50 am 
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By John Arguello, Friday at 12:20 am

In case you aren't familiar, ZiPS is a projection system that forecasts player performances for the coming season and beyond. If you want a more technical description, here's one courtesy of Fangraphs,

(ZiPS is) the work of Dan Szymborski over at Baseball Think Factory, the ZiPS projections uses weighted averages of four years of data (three if a player is very old or very young), regresses pitchers based on DIPS theory and BABIP rates, and adjusts for aging by looking at similar players and their aging trends.

While Epstein may not have used this particular model in Boston, it's certain that he does use some sort of projection system to assign value to players (as he put it) for what they will do in the future rather than what they have done in the past. Here are the ZiPS projections for some of the current Chicago Cubs. Keep in mind, though, that these projections are based on general patterns and cannot account for individual improvement. It only measures tangible information and the projections assume a full or near full season for each player as a starter.

Among the highlights (and lowlights):

Hitting Stats

■A slight dropoff in power for both Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez. Both are projected to hit 21 HRs.
■It projects Starlin Castro to have pretty much the same year he had in 2011.
■Bryan LaHair as an above average offensive player with an OPS+ of 107. As far as traditional stats, it has him hitting .262 with 24 HRs and 77 RBI.
■Brett Jackson has a right around league average 99+ OPS. Traditional stats include a .254 avg with a .335 OBP, 16 HRs and 22 SBs
■It projects Tony Campana to have a .273 avg (.317 OBP) with 44 SB
■They have Josh Vitters hitting .260 with 14 HRs but with a woeful .297 OBP.
Pitching Stats

■Matt Garza: 12-9, 3.52 ERA and 181 Ks.
■Interestingly it pegs both Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano as league average pitchers (96+ ERA). They have each as .500 (ish) pitchers with an ERA of about 4.25.
■Andrew Cashner is the only pitcher besides Garza whom ZiPS projects to be above league average. They have his ERA at 3.76 and splitting the year between the bullpen and the rotation.
■Trey McNutt projects to a 5-7 record and a 4.95 ERA
■Nick Struck is at 6-10 with a 5.29 ERA, but unfortunately, there's no projection for Chris Rusin.
■Chris Carpenter is projected to shuttle between the rotation and the bullpen (do they know something the rest of us don't?), and an ERA of 5.11 overall.
■Amongst the relievers, Marshall, Marmol, and Wood project as above average.
■Jeff Beliveau has the best ERA of the rookies with 4.24. Fellow lefties John Gaub and Scott Maine project to 4.35 and 4.37 ERAs respectively. Beliveau and Gaub project to over a strikeout per inning while Maine is just under that mark.
■Rafael Dolis projects to have a 5.04 ERA
Comps

■Starlin Castro comps are ..1) Derek Jeter 2) Robin Yount 3) George Brett. Now that's pretty good company. We have actually made the comparison with the first two right here on this site.
■Bryan LaHair's best comp is Greg Walker
■Brett Jackson's first comp is Bernie Williams. I'll take that.
■Tony Campana's first two comps are Willie Tavares and Willie McGee. That is far better than I would have expected.
■For some reason, Steve Clevenger's first comp is...Steve Clevenger. That doesn't help. I'm assuming that's a typo. His second comp is none other than AJ Pierzynski.
■DJ LeMahieu's best comp is Julio Franco
■You don't want to know Tyler Colvin's comps. They're all fringe major leaguers.
■Josh Vitters comps are former Cubs farmhand Casey McGehee and Wilson Betemit. You'd expect more from a #3 pick overall.
■Pitching comps were nothing to get excited about. I'll let you guys look those up.
There's lots more interesting stuff to browse through, including a lot of stuff on Starlin Castro, who ZiPS projects as a consistent 5 WAR player in his prime with good OBP and slugging numbers.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 31, 2011 2:26 pm 
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How is Tavares a comparable of Willie Mc Gee?

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