florida st minus 3
the over (46)

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4-1 Bowls. No play on the McCoy bet as he didn't see action.

Notre Dame +4 , -115

With you but I have it at ND +3.5.

What are your thoughts on buying it up to 4? I'm not schooled in the philosophy of buying points and from what I have read opinions vary widely.

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regular season: 20-13-5 +6.00
bowls: 2-2 -0.03
season: 22-15-5 +5.97

Iowa +15.5 (-110)
Penn State/Houston under 56.5 (-105)
Virginia +3 (-105)
Notre Dame/Florida State under 47 (-110)

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The short answer is it rarely makes math sense to buy the half. Some people say never buy the half, and based on the math 98% of the time in all sports, they are correct. (I can point to certain situations in which there is a mathematical advantage to buy the half in college hoops. There used to be math advantages to buying on/off 3 and 7 in the NFL, but the books have changed that by increasing the cost to buy those halves)

Generally, the house has the advantage, though the exact % of the advantage varies depending on the sport, the point you are buying on/off and the juice. There are times though that the disadvantage is small and it is worth considering.

In my opinion, this is one of those times.

First, the math. Use the half point calculator that shows the push rates for every number in every major sport.
http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/h ... alculator/

If you type "NCAAFB" for the sport, the standard -110 price for the dog and the favorite, and the line of -3.5, you see that 2.51% of all college football games land on 4. So in essence, I would be buying the 1/2 point to get a push in 2.51% of the games. The appropriate price for this bet would be 116.70 to win 100.

I bought this bet for -115. So the advantage I gained gives me a net + expected value. So compared to someone holding a +3.5 -110 ticket, I have a slightly better bet since I paid 115 for a bet worth 116.70.

However, I could have bought ND at the reduced juice price of +3.5 -105. With that as the price, the fair price would have been $110.70. So my bet is not as good as if I had just taken the reduced juice. Viewed this way, I paid 115 for a bet worth 110.70.

So it's not a great bet to buy the half here, but it's not as bad as most.

There is another reason I did it -- to set up a better middle. A middle could come into play should the line drop before kick and I want to bet some back on the other side, or the game plays out in such a way that a halftime bet makes 4 a much better number than 3.5. If none of those things happen, I'm perfectly happy holding the +4.

Wash / Baylor O/U 80?

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I made a small play on under 80.5

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12/29: 1-0 +1.00

regular season: 20-13-5 +6.00
bowls: 3-2 +0.97
season: 23-15-5 +6.97

Iowa +15.5 (-110)
Penn State/Houston under 56.5 (-105)
Virginia +3 (-105)

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<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
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Well, it worked like a charm here. A push is better than a loss, but I had that one mentally chalked up as a win after the went up 14-0

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

regular season: 20-13-5 +6.00
bowls: 3-2 +0.97
season: 23-15-5 +6.97

Iowa +15.5 (-110)
Penn State/Houston under 56.5 (-105)
Virginia +3 (-105)
South Carolina -2.5 (-105)

_________________
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<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
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It's an embarrassing week to be from Iowa (the media giving way too much attention to the 1 percent of the state population who want to select a candidate based on who is more religious). But it's a good day for football with both of the state's teams in bowls.
Iowa State -1

12/30: 0-1 -1.10

regular season: 20-13-5 +6.00
bowls: 3-3 -0.13
season: 23-16-5 +5.87

Penn State/Houston under 56.5 (-105)
Virginia +3 (-105)
South Carolina -2.5 (-105)
Texas A&M -9.5 (-105)

_________________
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Waiting for the time when I can finally say
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Bowls 4-2-1
Illinois -2.5 vs. UCLA

12/31: 1-0 +1.00

regular season: 20-13-5 +6.00
bowls: 4-3 +0.87
season: 24-16-5 +6.87

Penn State/Houston under 56.5 (-105)
Virginia +3 (-105)
South Carolina -2.5 (-105)

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Waiting for the time when I can finally say
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I have been through a gang bang of assfucking losses over the past few days. I may not even make a play tomorrow.

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

5-2-1 in bowls.

Three Big Ten early games today...may have another one or two later

Penn State +7.5 (2 units on game, 1/2 unit on moneyline at +250)
Houston is in a classic let down spot as the team was thinking BCS bowl. Kids generally don't overcome that kind of disappointment very well in their next game. Fundamentally, Houston has played nobody with a good defense and were whipped by a mediocre So. Miss defense. CUSA is horribly weak defensively and the passing teams all take advantage of it. Houston had a great year taking advantage of bottom 20 defenses. PSU is in a different class entirely, has a good all-around D, and their pass D will be the best Houston has seen. This game also has one of my favorite long-time angles here -- take the underdog that is expected to outrush the opponent. PSU can run the ball, control clock and keep UH off the field. Also think the emotional edge is huge to a PSU team that has to feel disrespected and unloved, considering all that has gone on this year and the fact that they are a TD underdog to a CUSA team. Penn State outright.

Michigan State-Georgia UNDER 50 (1 unit)
Both teams have top ten defenses. Both teams like to run. Both teams stop the run.

South Carolina -2.5 (3 ok) vs. Nebraska (1 unit)
Comparable offenses but SC a much better D. Basic rule of bowl games -- you need a real strong special case to take a Big Ten team against the SEC. The record is not good and there's a reason. Speed. It's a rare Big Ten team that can match up with typical SEC team speed. Nebraska isn't even close to being special in the speed department. SC's speed advantage is with their defense. It will be interesting to see how Clowney may dominate the Husker offensive line and how much he is in the backfield causing havoc.

I'm glad the PSU number got to 7. Not only is this a letdown spot for Houston, they are going to get murdered in the trenches, where games are won and lost.

South Carolina rolls today. Nebraska was very average in a down year for the Big 10. Taylor Martinez cannot throw the ball, and he has no chance running against speed that he hasn't seen this year.

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Waiting for the time when I can finally say
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0-1 -1.05

regular season: 20-13-5 +6.00
bowls: 4-4 -0.18
season: 24-17-5 +5.82

Penn State/Houston under 56.5 (-105)
Penn State +7.5 (-108)
South Carolina -2.5 (-105)

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Waiting for the time when I can finally say
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Oregon -4 vs. Wisconsin
Another game where speed kills. Can Wisconsin's defense cover Oregon's playmakers? I don't think so.

Sorry guys if you followed on Penn State. I totally misread Penn State.

Unlike other sections of the board where few people admit they are ever wrong, in this section we are wrong nearly half the time and own up to our ignorance.

I knew the offense sucked. You can trace the decline of the PSU offense to Jay Paterno being named "co-offensive coordinator". Joe Pa isn't the first daddy to bring an unprepared kid in the family business and then watch the business decline. I didn't expect PSU to score a lot of points, but I did expect more success than they had.

But for the defense to suck like this is a surprise. Which tells us one of two things -- either Bradley can't coach worth a damn against passing teams like Houston or more likely, the players quit and don't want him to be the coach. Either way, he needs to be gone too.

The question is who would want this job? You have to replace a legend and inherit a team that has had lousy offensive coaching from a lawyer and a defense that quit. The idea they would get an NFL coordinator or a proven college coach is pretty hilarious. More likely they will get some guy from a lesser program or somebody who is one year away from getting fired in his current job. And you have an alumni base that just adds to the problem by defending the JoePa and wanting the insider Bradley to get the job. The alums likely won't be happy if an outsider comes in. No good coach of a major program with job security would want to step into this kind of situation, would they?

Big Ten laying its usual egg against the speed teams. Just put more on Oregon.

Is it safe to assume that you will be on the Hokies tomorrow?

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Waiting for the time when I can finally say
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not sure yet, Chus.

OK...this was one tough because I needed to be sure I was betting with my head and not just my love of the Tree.

Stanford-Okla State OVER 72.5

1/2: 2-1 +0.92

regular season: 20-13-5 +6.00
bowls: 6-5 +0.74
season: 26-18-5 +6.74

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Waiting for the time when I can finally say
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Yes. On what planet does Michigan deserve to lay 3 pts. to Frank Beamer with weeks to prepare? Not this one. MU might cover, but I think this is a fine bet.

Hokie +3

Bowls 8-4-1

Coast, thanks. Any thoughts on the total? I like the over but would be curious to here your thoughts.

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2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

I lean over because offenses can produce....but not playing it for 2 reasons having to do with how the clock tends to roll when these teams play. UM is so run-oriented, they tend to use clock. VT defense you would think would put up more resistance than some of the B10 conf teams Mich ran by and scored on. But VT controls clock even more--VT scored 6 pts/game less than Mich, but was 3rd in nation in time of possession, with 34min TOP/game-- nearly 3 min more/game than Mich. Lot of runs by 1 team and long drives by the other usually are not the recipe for overs. good luck.

The more I look at this game, the more I think under is the right side. Because I started out thinking slight lean to over, but on deeper analysis, I think under, I'm going to have just a half interest in the under.

Va Tech-Michigan under 53, 1/2 unit

Thank goodness you had another look at the game, I didn't. Now I am looking for Va. Tech to cover the 3 for a split. The games I watched they made more big plays, but tonight I was wrong. Coast thanks, now I am rooting in the Dawg!!

_________________
2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

if. I ever suggest betting on Beamer is an edge, somebody remind me of the bonehead moves he made tonight.

Bowls 9-4-2

Leaning towards clemson based on previews I read today. Have not followed or watched much of either team this season.

Any clemson or wv fans with more insight?