I like the Daddys and I'll Have Another.

I learned a lot about paddock handicapping from a guy named Philly Joe Takach.

At a real cheap harness track, I can turn a profit just watching the post parades without even looking at a program. You've got a lot of horses that are dead lame going to the post and often just one or two that stand out and sometimes they're huge odds.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

1 - daddy long legs 30-1
2 - optimizer 50-1
3 - take charge indy 15-1
4 - union rags 9-2
5 - dullahan 8-1
6 - bodemeister 4-1
7 - rousing sermon 50-1
8 - creative cause 12-1
9 - trinniberg 50-1
10 - daddy nose best 15-1
11 - alpha 15-1
12 - prospective 30-1
13 - went the day well 20-1
14 - hansen 10-1
15 - gemologist 6-1
16 - el padrino 20-1
17 - done talking 50-1
18 - sabercat 30-1
19 - i'll have another 12-1
20 - liaison 50-1

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I'm really intrigued by Trinniberg. But from the sounds of it, he will be the horse leading for the first half and then flame out at the end.

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Arlington and the horsemen reached agreement. Derby is on in Illinois.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I might be overrating this horse, but I'm making my own line for the race and I'm figuring if they ran it 100 times, Bodemeister would win about 30. His Arkansas Derby reminds me of the Santa Anita Derby that Sunday Silence won prior to his Derby. That puts him at a little more than 2-1. A bet for me has to be plus 50%, for example, a horse I think is 2-1 is a bet at 3-1, a horse I think is even money is a bet at 3-2, etc. I think Bode is a nice overlay at 9-2. There might be some other good overlays here too though.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

This chick at my job is like a real life Sarah Phillips , and she likes Daddy Nose Best, Creative Cause, and I'll Have Another.

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I can imagine a scenario where Trinniberg wins, which is more than I can say about a couple of the horses.

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Fire Phil Emery

Any horse that gets a lead can win under the right conditions. They're gonna have to get to where he's gonna be. I'm guessing Bode blows by him and Hansen around the 3/8.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Sure. You catch a hard rail, maybe a couple of the other speed horses break poorly, jockeys lay off expecting a 45 second half mile and get a 48, who knows. I'm not expecting it and I expect him to start running in reverse with two furlongs to go but if you had me choose between Trinniberg and, say, Done Talking, I wouldn't hesitate to choose the former.

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Fire Phil Emery

I dont think you can get away with cheap fractions anymore at the Derby. With all the speed bias in pedigrees these days, horses want to be closer to the lead.

The last horse I think of winning completely on the front was War Emblem and he still went 47 to the half and 111 4/5 to the 6 furlongs. (That was what, 10 years ago?)

Not sure if Don's Piracy has seen this thread or not, but this is what he wrote in another thread, today.

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If you were doing a pace analysis on this race based on all the speed in here, I'm guessing you would come up with something like 47, 1:10, 1:35, 2:00-4/5.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Yeah, those are the numbers I came up with, too.

138 years the first Dead Heat Union Rags and Gemologist

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

You can use 2:00.80... we're living in the decimal era.

I totally agree with the fields being almost always full 20 horses, there are always a couple whose best shot is to wire the field and they keep the race honest.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

Eddie Olczyz on Waddle and Silvy just now:

If its a wet track go with El Padrino

If its a dry track, go with Union Rags or Daddy Nose Best

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Here is how I will be betting the derby:

$.50 trifecta partial wheels

10/4-5-6-11-12-14-16/3-4-5-6-8-11-12-14-15-16-18 = $35

5/4-6-10-11-12-14-16/4-6-10-11-12-14-16 = $21

4/5-6-10/5-6-10-11-12-14-16 = $9

6/4-5-10/4-5-10-11-12-14-16 = $9

$1 exacta box 4-5-6-10-16 = $20

$6 win on 12

Total = $100

In short: I want Daddy Nose Best to win, with Dullahan as a second choice. If Union Rags or Bodemeister win I still have some cheap exactas or trifectas possible. I can get a few exactas with El Padrino winning, and I have six bucks on Prospective. If any horse besides from those six wins I'm toast.

I also want one of those six to come in second, though if Daddy Nose Best or Dullahan wins I'll also take Hansen or Alpha to come in second.

Finally, if Daddy Nose Best wins I have 11 different horses that can come in third for the trifecta. In other words, I'm really trying to set myself up for a big score if I can hit this on the head and don't want to leave too many horses out of what can be a fluky third place position.

Good luck tomorrow.

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Fire Phil Emery

IB,

Your breakdown for the horses was freaking fantastic. So much so that I printed it out and will be bringing it to Arlington. I'm going to use it for info, but I'm still not sure which way I'm leaning yet. So, don't worry, I won't blame you for any lost wages.

Great stuff and very well written. I look forward to your recap of the Derby and your previews of the Preakness and Belmont.

+2. This little shooter is making the 6 block trek to Arlington OTB now to put $20 on a $1 boxed exacta 4-6-10-15-16. Good luck to all

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

Thanks for the kind words, but full disclosure: my Derby record is not good. Really hoping this is the year I crack the nut. Cautiously optimistic headed into today.

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Fire Phil Emery

Yeah that's great stuff IB. I was leaning towards Daddy but now it's cemented (hope I don't jinx him). I'm still working on my tri but I'm leaning towards Take Charge Indy and Bodemeister. Good luck!

I've studied IB's post quite a few times over the past 3 days.

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I'm at Arlington, and I have to say how crappy their offering of races is today. A lot of scratches in a field that only had 6 horses to start. Pa. Thetic.

This is their sport's Super Bowl and while I know the Derby isn't here, I still expect a better field than what we're getting given it's the Chicagoland market.

Days like this make me wonder how long AP will be around. Not very fun to bet on horses with even to worse than even odds.

I just got back from The Turf Room in North Aurora. I only had to wait in line for two minutes to place my wagers.

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Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Took me longer to park at Crestwood OTB than it did to walk in and place bets. $10 each on Daddy Long Legs and Union Rags to win.

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It was from the horsemen's strike. Owners were boycotting until Thursday morning. I agree the card sucks (which is why I didn't go today) but there's a reason.

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Fire Phil Emery

Long line with one teller outside Luck Magee's in Niles. Black late model Benz with Illinois Blackhawks plate "O" in the front parking spot. It's gotta be Olczyk, right? Fritzy is gonna pissed that Eddie grabbed his spot!

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Im using twinspires to bet. Not planning on betting a lot but Tora picked a horse she likes and I want to put something on the locally owned horse

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I think Eddie O did the Rangers-Caps game this afternoon in DC. Maybe his wife?

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."