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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2012 10:41 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
And if he goes to The Belmont he'll cakewalk. People mistakenly believe that's a closer's race because it's such a long route, but it really favors speed because every jock in the race figures he's got a long time to catch the leaders. You get a strong horse on the engine and it's bye-bye, Charlie.

Don't tell Smarty Jones that.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2012 10:44 am 
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What do you all think about Zetterholm? He has won his last 3 races. Of course, it wasn't against the same competition, but that is nothing to sneeze at, either.

Quote:
The bay son of multiple graded stakes winner Silver Train ran his win streak to three races with a 2 ¼-length victory in the $73,000 Patsyprospect Stakes at Aqueduct on April 6.

It marked the stakes debut for Zetterholm, who settled at the back of a five-horse field before making a four wide rally past the field, catching favored Sportswriter in the final 70 yards to hit the wire in 1:37.75 for the one-mile event.

Zetterholm debuted for former trainer Stephen DiMauro last November at Calder Race Course, finishing 11th of 12 in a 6 ½-furlong open maiden sprint. He was moved to the barn of Rick Dutrow Jr. and switched to New York-bred company for his first start of 2012, where he ran second over Aqueduct’s inner track.

The Anthony Grey homebred then reeled off back-to-back wins at a mile and 70 yards for Dutrow, breaking his maiden by 1 ¾ lengths on February 4 and making another last-to-first move in his first try against winners in a March 4 allowance.

Three New York-breds have won the Preakness, the last being Funny Cide in 2003.

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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2012 10:49 am 
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spmack wrote:
What do you all think about Zetterholm? He has won his last 3 races. Of course, it wasn't against the same competition, but that is nothing to sneeze at, either.



Never ran in a graded stake. Time for a mile was slow. I'd pass.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2012 10:55 am 
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http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbFree ... de=D&c=USA

Free past performances.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2012 11:03 am 
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Thanks Vince....that is outstanding.

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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2012 11:16 am 
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spmack wrote:
I'm the same guy who won 270 bucks on Shackleford last year too. :wink:


Love Shackleford. Love Caleb's Posse even more, as I had an exacta on them in the Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile Race last year. :thumright:

Caleb's Posse came out of nowhere to win. I usually never remember the names of horses, but in that case, I remember both. 8)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIqHLanenlQ


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2012 11:34 am 
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Ed_from_Lisle wrote:
spmack wrote:
I'm the same guy who won 270 bucks on Shackleford last year too. :wink:


Love Shackleford. Love Caleb's Posse even more, as I had an exacta on them in the Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile Race last year. :thumright:

Caleb's Posse came out of nowhere to win. I usually never remember the names of horses, but in that case, I remember both. 8)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIqHLanenlQ

Nice.



I went back to the past 24 races, and only 4 times did the favored horse not at least show, including Barbaro who sent to the glue factory :cry: :D

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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2012 12:54 pm 
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http://www.drf.com/news/beyer-bodemeist ... -preakness

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At Pimlico there is only one reason to question Bodemeister, and it has nothing to do with his talent. The colt has crammed his whole five-race career into the span of four months, and the exertions may have taken a toll on him. After the Derby, trainer Bob Baffert said, “I was worried that he might be wiped out and stay in the back of his stall for three days and sulk.” But Baffert believes his colt has bounced back and is ready to run at the level he did in the Derby
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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2012 5:55 pm 
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Bodemeister is trained by the Thibs of horse racing!!!!Way to many races in a short span of time..so I'm throwing him out. ^ races in 5 months ...so I think that Went the Day Well and I'll have Another and Teeth of the Dog in Tri and exacta boxes with a WP bet on Went the Day Well good luck :D

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PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2012 9:19 am 
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Guys from NY Daily News


JERRY BOSSERT
Bodemeister 7
Daddy Nose Best 8
Creative Cause 6

RUSS HARRIS
Bodemeister 7
I’ll Have Another 9
Creative Cause 6

DAVE LITTLE
Bodemeister 7
Creative Cause 6
I’ll Have Another 9

MIKE LIPACK
Bodemeister 7
Went The Day Well 5
Creative Cause 6

JOE LODS
Teeth Of The Dog 2
I’ll Have Another 9
Bodemeister 7

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PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2012 11:08 am 
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Jerry Bossert at NY Daily News


Quote:
1. TIGER WALK
Trainer: Ignacio Correas IV
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux

LAST THREE STARTS
4-7 Wood Memorial 4-5
3-3 Gotham Stakes 4-9
2-4 Withers Stakes 3-5

Winless from three starts this year but wasn’t embarrassed when fourth in the Wood Memorial. Worked a bullet four furlongs on Sunday over this strip in :47.60 and picks up Desormeaux, who has won this race twice, but still looks a cut below these. This will be Correas’ first Preakness starter.

2. TEETH OF THE DOG
Trainer: Michael Matz
Jockey: Joe Bravo

LAST THREE STARTS
4-7 Wood Memorial 3-3-1/4
2-4 Maiden 1-head
1-7 Maiden 2-3/4

The most lightly raced horse in the field with just four starts and only a maiden win to his name but did show some promise when third in the Wood Memorial. The colt scratched out of last Saturday’s Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont for this. Bravo is winless from three Preakness mounts while this will be Matz’ second starter. His first, Barbaro, was fatally injured in this race in 2006.

3. PRETENSION
Trainer: Christopher Grove
Jockey: Javier Santiago

LAST THREE STARTS
5-5 Canonero II 1-neck
4-7 Illinois Derby 9-13-1/4
3-3 Gotham Stakes 5-9-1/4

Although New York bred, this colt trains in Maryland and is coming off a victory in the local prep. In fact, he’s the lone horse in the field to have a start at Pimlico, but seems overmatched as his prior two tries against graded company resulted in-off-the-board finishes. This is Santiago’s first Preakness, while Grove trained Norman Asbjornson to an 11th-place finish last year.

4. ZETTERHOLM
Trainer: Rick Dutrow Jr.
Jockey: Junior Alvarado

LAST THREE STARTS
4-6 Patsy Prospect 1-2¼
3-4 Allowance 1-½
2-4 Maiden 1-1¾

Enters the Preakness having won three in a row, but all have come against New York-bred competition. This will be his first graded stakes try and he’s trying the best of his age group. Will need to step it up for Dutrow, who won this race in 2008 with Big Brown, while this will be Alvarado’s first Preakness mount.

5. WENT THE DAY WELL
Trainer: Graham Motion
Jockey: John Velazquez

LAST THREE STARTS
5-5 Kentucky Derby 4-2-1/2
3-24 Spiral Stakes 1-3-1/2
3-3 Maiden 1-1-1/4

Had two-race win streak snapped when fourth in the Derby, but may have had the most trouble as the colt was flying late, beaten just over two lengths in his first start with blinkers. Motion and Velazquez are each 0-for-4 in the Preakness, finishing a close second last year with Animal Kingdom.

6. CREATIVE CAUSE
Trainer: Mike Harrington
Jockey: Joel Rosario

LAST THREE STARTS
5-5 Kentucky Derby 5-3
4-7 Santa Anita Derby 2-nose
3-10 San Felipe 1-3/4

According to Trakus, which measures the exact distance a horse ran, this gray colt ran the farthest in the Derby when fifth after a wide trip. With a smoother journey Saturday, who knows, as he was only beaten three lengths in the Derby. This will be the first Preakness starter for both 71-year-old Trainer Harrington and the 27-year-old Rosario.

7. BODEMEISTER
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith

LAST THREE STARTS
5-5 Kentucky Derby 2-1-1/2
4-14 Arkansas Derby 1-9-1/2
3-10 San Felipe 2--3/4

May have put in best losing effort in Derby history, setting the pace through wicked fast fractions, only to be run down late by I’ll Have Another. The question that remains is what’s left in the tank. Baffert feels confident to wheel him back in two weeks to try to give the Trainer his sixth Preakness title while Smith is seeking his second.

8. DADDY NOSE BEST
Trainer: STEVE ASMUSSEN
Jockey: Julien Leparoux

LAST THREE STARTS
5-5 Kentucky Derby 10-11-1/2
3-25 Sunland Derby 1-3/4
2-18 El Camino Real Derby 1-nose

Was a wiseguy horse in the Derby off his big win in the Sunland Derby, but never fired. Julien Leparoux, who was aboard this colt in the Sunland Derby, replaces Garrett Gomez this time around. Leparoux has been aboard the colt for all four of his career wins. Asmussen has won the Preakness twice, while Leparoux is seeking his first.

9. I’LL HAVE ANOTHER
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez

LAST THREE STARTS
5-5 Kentucky Derby 1-1-1/2
4-7 Santa Anita Derby 1-nose
2-4 Robert Lewis 1-2-3/4

Stepped up with the biggest win in his career when taking the Derby to remain undefeated this year and has been training steadily at Pimlico since May 7. Showed the ability to race close to the pace in California this year, which he may need to do to keep Bodemeister honest early. This will be the first Preakness starter for O’Neill and Gutierrez.

10. OPTIMIZER
Trainer: Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Corey Nakatani

LAST THREE STARTS
5-5 Kentucky Derby 11-12
4-14 Arkansas Derby 9-20-1/2
3-17 Rebel Stakes 2-3/4

Has lost nine in a row since breaking his maiden on the grass in his debut at Saratoga, but is trained by Lukas, who has won this race five times in his Hall of Fame career, the last coming in 1999 with Charismatic. Switches to Nakatani, who is 0-for-3 in the Preakness, but Lukas has called this colt his Belmont Stakes horse.

11. COZZETTI
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Jose Lezcano

LAST THREE STARTS
4-14 Arkansas Derby 4-9-3/4
3-10 Tampa Bay Derby 3-3-3/4
1-21 Kittens Joy 4-5-1/4

After winning the Preakness last year with Shackleford, Trainer Dale Romans will try to saddle his second winner with Cozzetti, who owns just a maiden win to his credit from seven starts. Was no match for Bodemeister in the Arkansas Derby and appears overmatched in this spot. This will be Lezcano’s first Preakness mount.

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PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2012 11:17 am 
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Playing the role of IB, is Jerry Brown from Thoro-Graph speed charts.

Posted by Ray Kerrison of the NY Post.


Quote:
BALTIMORE -- The Preakness Stakes usually is the easiest and simplest classic race to handicap, but this year’s running on Saturday has turned into a “very complicated” race.

That’s the verdict of Jerry Brown, proprietor of the Thoro-Graph speed charts, whose opinion we always seek at this time, two weeks after the Kentucky Derby. He has taken the 3-year-old crop apart, pinpointed the contenders and unmasked the pretenders.

“Going into the Derby, the current crop looked average in terms of ability but deep,” Brown said Tuesday from his New York headquarters. “But coming out of the Derby it looks average or less in terms of ability and not so deep.

“The winner, I’ll Have Another, is mediocre and Bodemeister’s race looked better than it actually was. He’s getting credit for hanging on for second after a fast pace, when in fact he ran his last half-mile in 52 seconds and change. He held on for second because so few horses were actually doing any running behind him.”

Even so, Brown said he believes three horses stand out in the Preakness because they are, on their best days, faster than anything else in the race. The horses are Bodemeister, I’ll Have Another and Creative Cause.

“If one of these three run their best, they’ll probably win,” said Brown. “Creative Cause was extremely wide in the Derby and on his best is as good as the other two.”

Well, what’s so complicated? “There are reasons to believe that all three horses might not fire,” Brown said. “Bodemeister will be making his sixth start of the year, his third start in five weeks and he’s coming off two top efforts. There’s a reason why horses don’t win the Triple Crown. When they make their third start in five weeks off two good efforts, they very often don’t run well. He’s in exactly that situation.”

Brown said he is wary of I’ll Have Another.

“He has a history of soundness problems,” he said. “That’s why they stopped on him so early when he was two years old. Then, in the winter, he was on the vet’s list at Santa Anita getting shock wave therapy for his back, which is not a positive“This horse has been given a lot of time between all his races, at least four weeks, but now he has to come back for the first time in two weeks. Whether he’ll be able to throw his best shot again is anybody’s guess.”

Brown said he is puzzled by Creative Cause’s program.

“Mike Harrington [his trainer] decided to take him back to California after the Derby, then bring him back to Baltimore,” he said. “On top of him having just two weeks rest, that horse has had two cross-country plane trips in between, so there’s no telling whether he will be able to fire.”

Brown said he thinks Went the Day Well might get a piece of the money but he’s looking at him as a prospect later in the year.

“He was aimed for the Derby, he ran his race and they may get the same effort again but not an improved one,He needs to improve. A nice horse down the road.” he said.

Is there a dark horse in the Preakness? Brown suggests Zetterholm, the long shot saddled by New York’s man-about-town, Rick Dutrow Jr.

“Zetterholm’s dam [Holy Wish] has thrown five consecutive really good horses and they all got better with age,” Brown said. “Zetterholm is improving rapidly. At this point, he’s probably a few lengths off these other horses but it would only take one more forward move to put him right there.

“The fact that Dutrow took him out of a much softer spot last week to run in the Preakness makes me think he thinks this horse is going to run the race of his life.”

Zetterholm has won three straight races — a maiden, an allowance and a small New York-bred stake. His speed figures have improved with every race.

Brown’s sum-up: “I think there’s a good chance one of the top three will win, but I can’t figure out which one it will be, so I’ll probably key a long shot and try to figure out how to hit the exotics.”

The horse of the future? “Dullahan,” Brown said. “He ran third in the Derby, but if I was making a future book, I’d have Travers written all over him.”


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PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2012 5:53 pm 
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With all due respect to Jerry Brown, I think Bob Baffert earns the benefit of the doubt. Bodemeister could easily have skipped the Preakness. If Baffert thinks he's ready to run, he probably is. Five races since January isn't really Herculean.

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PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2012 7:12 pm 
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As for the Preakness: if Bode is better than even money I'm betting him. If he's not, and IHA is better than 3-1 I'm betting him. If neither of those are true I'm probably sitting this one out, unless Creative Cause is crazily priced. I'm not betting a ton anyway, because I'm not sure this race is really beatable.

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PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2012 3:38 pm 
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Mostly Chalks at Pimlico :( Pick 3 .50 paid $2.50.......$1 Tri $5 ....pick 1-2-3 $5 WTF!!!!!!!

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PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2012 5:18 pm 
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Exacta and trifecta boxes with I'll Have Another, Bodemeister, and Creative Cause.

Chalk, I know. We'll see.


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PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2012 5:24 pm 
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8)

Too bad I didn't key I'll Have Another.


Last edited by Ed_from_Lisle on Sat May 19, 2012 5:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2012 5:28 pm 
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Affirmed and Alydar Part II

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PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2012 5:30 pm 
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Unreal. Never thought hav nother could run it down even in the stretch. What a finish!

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PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2012 5:32 pm 
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Can't wait to see the Belmont.


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PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2012 10:42 pm 
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As my facebook friends can attest, I'm seriously considering driving to Belmont in three weeks. I'm sold. This could happen.

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PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2012 10:44 pm 
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If you owned a horse, what would you name it?


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PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2012 10:46 pm 
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Spaulding wrote:
If you owned a horse, what would you name it?

I'm far too drunk to answer that question without excessive profanity.

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PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2012 10:47 pm 
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Spaulding wrote:
If you owned a horse, what would you name it?

DG Hussy.

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PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2012 10:51 pm 
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Glad I didn't bet it, but it was a really good race. IHA was very impressive in this one. With the slow pace, I thought Bode had it locked up by the time they got to the final turn -- was expecting maybe even a hand ride. Maybe IHA responds to the crowd noise! I am really looking forward to the final leg between these two.

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PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2012 10:55 pm 
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newper wrote:
Glad I didn't bet it, but it was a really good race. IHA was very impressive in this one. With the slow pace, I thought Bode had it locked up by the time they got to the final turn -- was expecting maybe even a hand ride. Maybe IHA responds to the crowd noise! I am really looking forward to the final leg between these two.

I told everyone around me the race was over with a half mile to go. Bode pulled away from Creative Cause and I only felt more certain. Just a fantastic effort from IHA in every regard.

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PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2012 10:55 pm 
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Coming Fast

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PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2012 10:59 pm 
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Irish Boy wrote:
I'm far too drunk to answer that question without excessive profanity.


That'd be good!

I'd name my horse Spankyizabutt.


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PostPosted: Sun May 20, 2012 6:05 am 
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newper wrote:
Glad I didn't bet it, but it was a really good race. IHA was very impressive in this one. With the slow pace, I thought Bode had it locked up by the time they got to the final turn -- was expecting maybe even a hand ride. Maybe IHA responds to the crowd noise! I am really looking forward to the final leg between these two.


I didn't really think the pace was slow. Only in comparison to the Derby. I'd say under 48 to the half was an honest pace the way that track was yesterday. Like you, I thought he was home free. It was at about the eighth pole where I thought Bode begn shortening stride a bit and I thought IHA had a shot to catch him.

It looks like Bodemeister is likely out of the Belmont. A bad style caught up with him. Going on the front is the toughest way to win. Realistically, his best distance may be a mile. I think the worries about so many races in a relatively short period were unfounded as the horse still looks great, but I do think circumstances probably caused them to just let him run on the front rather than teach him to relax off the pace. Put them on the engine too many times and it's usually tough to get them off of it.

Anyway, it was a great race by I'll Have Another and he deserves his due. I still think Bodemeister is the better horse, but I feel dumb saying it. Sort of like Easy Goer and Sunday Silence.

I think Dullahan and Union Rags are the only horses standing in the way of a Triple Crown.

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PostPosted: Sun May 20, 2012 9:16 am 
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Spaulding wrote:
If you owned a horse, what would you name it?



This was a name of a horse: Hoofhearted :lol:

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