Bob Ehalt from Thoroughbred Times with updated thoughts.
Quote:
Ragozin Insider: Dullahan, Paynter stand best chance
Posted: Friday, June 08, 2012 5:27 PM
by Bob Ehalt
That loud collective sigh of disappointment uttered by the racing industry over the retirement of I'll Have Another was no doubt deafening among a fraternity of handicappers.
Heading into Friday, the Belmont Stakes (G1) had an inviting choice to bet against in Triple Crown hopeful I'll Have Another. According to Len Friedman of Ragozin Thoroughbred Data, The Sheets indicated that the winner of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) had the third-best chance of winning the race.
In Friedman's opinion, 4-to-5 odds and only a 15% chance of winning mix even worse than oil and water.
Now, with I'll Have Another retired, Dullahan and Paynter still have the best chances of winning, but their wagering value has been completely skewered.
Dullahan was last seen running third behind I'll Have Another in the Derby while earning a 5 1/4. With a line of 5 1/4 - 4 3/4 - 6 in his last three races and five weeks rest, Dullahan is nicely positioned to move forward Saturday and assume leadership of the there-year-old division.
Unfortunately, he's not as attractive in his new role as the 9-to-5 favorite as he was at 5-to-1 or 6-to-1. Still, he rates as one of the main players in the exotics.
Paynter offers more risk and now a lesser-than-expected reward.
Bodemeister's stablemate has raced only four times. He started his career with a 7 1/4 then retreated slightly to an 8 while losing to I'll Have Another in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). On three weeks rest he notched a breakthrough figure of 2 1/4 while finishing second in The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial Stakes (G3). Running again on three weeks rest, this time in an allowance race on the Preakness undercard, Paynter figured to react to his 5-point top. Instead, he did what few horses are capable of doing, running virtually as fast with a 2 1/2.
Now, on three weeks rest, the rigors of two such demanding efforts just might catch up with him. At 8-to-1 odds, when I'll Have Another was set to race against him, and with extreme number power, there was incentive for overlooking a risky pattern and backing the notion that he's a good enough horse to once again do something special.
The more likely price of 7-of-2 is certainly less inviting, though his task, and everyone else's for that matter, became much easier without I'll Have Another to fear.
Union Rags seems the most suspect of the top contenders. He has plenty of number power, with a 3 1/4 both at two and three. But both of those races — the Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) — were at 1 1/16 miles. In the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby (G1), he regressed to a 7, and he then received only a 9 1/4 in the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby after a poor start.
"I can't believe how often people put too much emphasis on troubled trips," Friedman said. "Sure he had a bad trip, but he also ran a 9 1/4. That's not saying much."
Of the rest, Atigun offers the new version of value at 15-to-1 odds. With a line of 7 1/2 - 9 1/2 - 13 3/4 and five weeks rest, he seems poised for another forward move for trainer Ken McPeek, who won the Belmont in 2002 with Sarava - who paid $142.50.
Street Life has some appeal in the exotics off an 8 1/2 - a 2-point new top - in the Peter Pan Stakes (G2) at Belmont last month.
He's 8-to-1, as opposed to 12-to-1 in the original morning line, one more reason for some handicappers to let out a sigh.
The Belmont field, with Bob Ehalt's comments:
1. Street Life (Jose Lezcano) 8-to-1
Posted a 2-point new top of 8 1/2 in the Peter Pan.
2. Unstoppable U (Junior Alvarado), 20-to-1
Unlikely U is more like it with two races and nothing better than a 12 1/4.
3. Union Rags (John Velazquez), 3-to-1
Best figures (3 1/4) are at a mile and a sixteenth.
4 Atigun (Julien Leparoux), 15-to-1
Offers the best value with a 7 1/2 - 9 1/2 - 13 3/4.
5. Dullahan (Javier Castellano), 9-to-5
Has the best chance of winning with a 5 1/4 - 4 3/4 - 6.
6. Ravelo's Boy (Alex Solis), 30-to-1
Might move forward off an 11 1/2 - 9 1/4 - 15 1/2.
7. Five Sixteen (Rosie Napravnik), 30-to-1
Pretty slow with a 13 1/4 - 16 3/4 - 15 1/4.
8. Guyana Star Dweej (Kent Desormeaux), 30-to-1
Had a 9 1/4 but then bounced to a 16 1/2.
9. Paynter (Mike Smith), 7-2
Has number power with a 2 1/2 and 2 1/4, but will he react?
10. Optimizer (Corey Nakatani), 15-to-1
Is inching forward with a 10 - 12 - 12 1/4.
11. I'll Have Another - Scratched
12. My Adonis (Ramon Dominguez), 15-1
A 7 1/2 was promising, but he's paired 12 1/4 since.
For more information on Ragozin speed figures, go to /redirect.aspx?location=www.thesheets.com.
Bob Ehalt is a Connecticut-based Thoroughbred Times correspondent
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