So are you implying that Dave is misusing DVOA or DYAR? Or are you saying they are invalid statistics to bring up in contrast to volume stats? Do you have similar disdain for the WAR stat for baseball?

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Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

I'm just disdaining the drive by stat-dumping without adding the eye test to the equation in football. It'd be like going to every baseball thread about a guy and posting his WAR and then cutting off every response stating the player is better or worse than that by redirecting back to his WAR and saying "You must not understand WAR." Yes, I get Yards Above Replacement and Value Over Average. They're interesting concepts but I still think giving an individual rating to someone in football when their production hinges so much on what 21 other guys and 2 sets of coaches do isn't going to do anything more than give a vague appraisal of a player. I get why WAR works in baseball, because so much of it is independent of other players and there's 162 chances to accumulate data, maybe someday they'll figure it out in football. To me DVOA and DYAR are like OBP and WHIP, a step in the right direction statistically, but far from authoritative. Maybe in 5 years they'll get to ERA+ or FIP or OPS+ or UZR level of stats, but I don't think the advanced stats we have now are that great.

I get a little pissy about the Marshall issue because I've been involved in far too many "debates" that descend into someone telling me that dividing one number by another is gay. I certainly don't begrudge someone having legitimate methodological problems with FO; I think they do a good job adjusting for the chaos inherent in the game, but individual football stats will always be subject to some noise. Good post.

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The Bulls haven't done anything wrong, and they're not going to do anything wrong.

your dismissal of Fitzgerald's season basically makes that argument (and I agree with your assessment of Fitzgerald, although Andre Roberts has seen a big increase in production under the same situation).

Statistics are great. They provide depth of perspective on players and the game. I think what is really lacking in the sports world is a person who can adequately take the stats and analyze them...put them in proper context rather than just baldly stating a number .

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Brandon Marshall leads the NFL in receptions (101), is second in receiving yards (1342) and tied for third in receiving TDs (9).

I hope one day we can live in a world where stupid football people don't rely on flawed stats like this and accept the new modern way of looking at things.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Pretty much half of Cutler's stats.

Not sure it can happen in football like it can in baseball. To much chaos. Not enough plays, not enough games. Nearly impossible to isolate individual players in football for statistical purposes, like you can in baseball.

But we do agree in theory.

So you think Marshall is pretty overrated?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I don't know who's rating him where, and I'm not sure where I rate him. Further, whether he is overrated or not doesn't really interest me as a fan.

Dave in Champaign has chronicled in pretty good detail that the advanced statistics are not kind to Marshall. It's no different than how the advanced statistics put down the triple crown.

I'll put it another way. Do you agree with the advanced statistics that say that Brandon Marshall is not as good as his old school numbers indicate?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Uh oh.

I think Math just turned heel on Bucky Chris.

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I have absolutely no understanding of the advanced stats, how they are calculated, what they mean, etc. They have no value to me, so agreeing or disagreeing with him wouldn't make any sense.


I also don't know that it's worth arguing whether he is a top 5 WR (which old school says), or top 10-15 (advanced stats say). I don't see any value wasting time debating between the two. Who cares? It's a nominal distinction that doesn't really provide any value to me.

I also don't think advanced stats put down the Triple Crown at all. It does a great job specifically taking into account those 3 categories, as well as more.

You spent a ton of time arguing between the first and second best player in the American League but this is above you? That's convenient.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Yea, I cared about that. Determining whether he is top 5 or top 15 just doesn't matter to me. Why is that convenient?

And I haver absolutely no understanding of advanced statistics in football, so what's the point in me even attempting to engage in that?

Advanced statistics considers batting average a flawed statistic that needs more added to it to be useful, and considers RBI to be virtually meaningless. Home runs are important though.

Even I know that.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

You got mad at other people for doing the same thing in baseball. It's fine if you want to ignore advanced statistics in football, but it seems hypocritical to get mad at people for ignoring them in baseball.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

If I wrote that, can you imagine how "mad" you'd think I am?


I have yet to see any value in football's advanced stats. Like I said, with how chaotic and random a game is, coupled with the small sample sizes, I've seen no benefit of the stats. I'm not trying to say they don't, I just don't know anything about them. I'm not afraid to admit I don't know something. Does that bother you?

Frame it however you want. You clearly did not agree with how many voters for AL MVP ignored what advanced statistics said. Now, you are choosing to ignored what advanced statistics say.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

As much as you misunderstood my "math" joke, I have never ever said advanced stats are always correct/right/valuable/better, in every situation, unequivocally.

I am absolutely choosing to ignore the NFL stats, because they aren't interesting to me at this point, and don't provide me any value. I can't discuss DYAR with my buddies. No one else around me is discussing it (other than Dave, who is the only person I've read/met). No one on the radio discusses it. Doesn't help me with fantasy. I don't believe teams use it (I don't know this for sure). So what value does it have for me to take the time to understand it right now? So I can properly slot a WR either 5 or 15? Who cares?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

That still makes me laugh out loud. Thanks for posting.

DVOA, DYAR, and many other advanced metrics that websites like Football Outsiders use are becoming pretty well known. They were fairly well known 2-3 years ago, and now the only reason not to know them or not find any value in them is to willingly do so. And you'd be wrong to think teams don't use them. Teams use them to varying degrees in every front office in the league, just like basketball and baseball teams do.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

I'm just saying I never come across it. I'd be interested to read about front office's using them, if you have any links. That's interesting.

Not a ton of detail, but: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap100000 ... statistics

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The Bulls haven't done anything wrong, and they're not going to do anything wrong.

I emailed the link to my friend who is a college scout for a pro team, and here is what he said:




Granted, it's just one guy and his team. But in following up with him, he likes it personally, but he feels they can't get too much out of it because of how much impact schemes/playcalling/surrounding talent, etc. have as opposed to stat driven sports like baseball.

That was a very ineffient TD. Had to waste all that energy stiff arming that guy in the face.

Best thread ever.

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The Bulls haven't done anything wrong, and they're not going to do anything wrong.