Do these guys believe momentum exists in football?

If not, how do you explain the Bears season?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Cutler sucks.

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"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

Considering each team comes in with their own complex playbook, I would find it hard to believe momentum exists as much as the playbook is well implemented with the right talent. With the Bears, defense has a complex playbook with the right pieces. When those pieces execute, they are able to force more turnovers than any other team in the league, thus explaining this season. Momentum probably exists more from a defensive perspective than from an offensive perspective as on the offensive side, there are very few coordinators doing exotic things to build momentum, with the exception of Seattle and San Fran this year.

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At last the light, even after the darkest dawn.

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Proud member of the white guy grievance committee

It aint the six minutes. Its what happens in those six minutes.

Most of the hosts are extremely negative about the Bears even when they are playing well. Most of the hosts in this town speak out their asses on a regular basis.

Probably you get momentum playing bad teams and lose it playing good ones

Guys like bernstein don't like to talk about it because it can't be measured. But I think anyone who has competed in anything at any level understands that confidence plays a part. And when bad shit starts happening, it isn't difficult to get into a bad frame of mind where you are just waiting for the next bad thing to happen.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I don't believe in momentum, but I do believe in confidence being at least somewhat relevant. That said, I don't believe it's worth discussing as a fan, because it's next to impossible to know how their confidence impacts the game and certainly doesn't offer any sort of predictability on the game's outcome.


I think it's probably more true that better teams are more confident than worse teams, and that matters more.

Clearly.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I don't know why, but it makes me feel good when you consistently don't understand me!


We can discuss why it's not worth talking about. That's ok. I'm surprised you didn't know that since you always know what I'm REALLY thinking!

You started your post making a statement about momentum, and then said it wasn't worth discussing.

It's the holidays. Don't get so upset.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Not one bit, imaginary CSFMB! I said I don't believe in momentum. Then I said I do believe in confidence, but don't believe confidence is worth discussing because it's impossible to know what impact it has. Did you get that?

Keep up or go away! Can I talk to JORR now?

Wow. Another post.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Apology accepted. Thanks, Rick. You'll get 'em next time maybe.

I don't think this is worth discussing.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Nothing personal Bucky. I wonder where this ranks on the FavreFan thought scale. Safe statement, or DB worthy?

I'm sure that's true, and for good reason. Ultimately, you're as good as your results say you are. We can call losing "choking" and call winning "momentum", but they're really just winning and losing. Good teams win. Bad teams lose.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

So how do we explain the Giants? We know they are a good team, but for some reason, they always have a stretch where they look like the Cardinals. Even now, a certain fat, stupid, and ugly fan base is scared to death of them in the playoffs.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Bernstein's biggest problem is he completely disregards the emotional side of sports. Players are not robots.

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In reality, I think momentum is merely misunderstood, but it clearly exists. Momentum is not the idea that something that happened previously is continuing. It's that something happened which started the momentum and it will continue until another force stronger than it shuts it down. Imagine a rock on a hill. It will be stationary. If I go and push it, then it goes down until it meets resistance that stops it. The NFL, and sports in general, have the same thing. It could be great QB play that starts the momentum, or "inventing the Wildcat" or Adrian Peterson going crazy. Something happened that has started a positive movement of the team. It's different than a team that is good continuing to be good. There is a specific reason for the momentum. Now, it may be stopped, but that's kind of the point. When it's stopped, you either return to where you are, or you get into negative momentum, which is just a state in which whatever you are doing is not working.

A perfect example of momentum was the six game stretch that Grossman had where he was an MVP candidate. This clearly was not who Grossman was as he never got close to that again, but something happened that allowed him to do that. Eventually, it was stopped, and momentum was gone.

Momentum is often confused with "They won last week, so they'll win this week" when in reality it means "What they are doing is working now, so they'll likely see it work in the next game".

This is what happened with the Bears. The defense had momentum, but eventually teams did enough to counter them, and injuries also happened which made the things they were doing not work as well.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I agree with most of that.

A racehorse is a relatively dumb animal. One can often become sour if he is raced over his head and gets his brains beaten in. But if brought along properly, which includes building confidence by putting him where he can actually win, he has a chance to step up and beat horses he once could not compete against.

If you following racing you will often see a maiden race (for horses who have never won) that features a bunch of very lightly raced horses- those with one or two starts- as well as some making their first ever starts, and there will be one horse with a lot of experience, maybe 10 or twelve losing starts, often with many seconds. These horses usually are favored and they seldom win. It isn't because they are physically incapable of traveling faster than the others. They are often the fastest horse in the field.

What has usually occurred is that a trainer and jockey have tried to use the horse to grab as much money as possible without having to move up a class. Eventually the connections decide it is time for the horse to win, but when asked to pass the last horse, he won't. Or if he is on the front, he will wait. He has been taught to lose. And that is the heart of it right there. To some degree winning and losing are habitual.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

, yea somewhat intentional. That wasn't intended to be thought provoking on any level.

Clearly.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

This is all just a way to say a team is playing well. Looking backwards, that's ok. But trying to use it to predict anything renders it useless.

Randomness, matchups, schemes, playcalling and talent are so much more important than confidence or momentum, that it's not worth talking about either of the two, IMO.


Here is a good read on momentum: http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/11/20/ ... -a-myth-2/

At a very basic level, everything in sports can be explained by "playing well" or "playing bad" but as fans we look for higher level reasoning. So, while what you say may be technically correct, it is as useless as you seem to admit before.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I agree, but trying to find higher level reasoning in randomness can also be a big waste of time.

What do you mean randomness? I don't think the momentum the Vikings currently have, or the momentum the Bears defense lost is randomness.

What is your infatuation with "it's not worth discussing" while discussing things? If you feel this is a waste of time, then find a topic worth discussing.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Didn't the Bears defense get their mo mo back last week since they scored and won? If so, how did they get it back before that game since they lost so much in the weeks before? And why didn't the Bears get the big mo when they beat the Vikings a few weeks back? And why did the Vikings get momentum after losing to the Bears?


I do feel certain topics are a waste of time and I like discussing why I think they are a waste of time... specifically if other people are wasting their own time when it's useless. If that doesn't make sense to you, I can't help you.

It's not a universal thing. The Bears did not get it back last week. They still are in a pretty bad free fall. They happened to win. That's the problem with people talking about momentum. They act like it must exist always. It's just like luck. Luck can exist, but luck doesn't always exist. When the Patriots win by 50 points, they weren't lucky. When the Seahawks win on a terrible call at the end of the game, they were lucky. The same is true of momentum. It doesn't always exist, but it can and does exist.
The problem is the topic, which you find to be a waste of time to discuss, is something you are discussing. It doesn't make sense to me. There are a lot of topics I don't feel are worth discussing and I don't discuss them.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!