Current Odds to Win the Big Ten:
Michigan +185
Wisconsin +285
Ohio State +500
Penn State +500
Iowa +1000
Purdue +1800
Michigan State +2500
Minnesota +3000
Northwestern +3000
Illinois +3000
Indiana +3000

I will take one unit on Penn State @5/1. They have to play Michigan, Illinois and Mich. State on the road. They have Iowa, Wisky and OSU at home. Penn State's chances to win the Big Ten might just come down to one game -- winning at Michigan on Sept. 22. I think they will be favored in all the rest. So I'll take the 5/1 odds for a season bet that hinges greatly on one road game in which they will be dogs of 7 or less points...

I agree with you that Penn State is probably the best option on that board. You are however putting a lot of faith in an unproven quarterback and a team that quite frankly, besides one year, has been middle of the pack for the past 7 or so years. It looks like most years they end up 5-3.

I just have a hard time seeing any team unseating Michigan for the Big Ten title. They will find a way to lose a game and knock themselves out of BCS contention but they have to be good. If they drop out, then Wisconsin should find a way to fall into that spot.

If I had to make a pick here, I would go with Ohio State as I said in the other thread, they seem to reload as good as anyone in the country.

In my opinion, the factor that is most important for success of any college football team is quarterback play. With a few exceptions, new quarterbacks struggle in their first full season of starting. Teams with erratic QB play don't go far. That puts Michigan a step above the rest and is a major advantage for Purdue as they both have high quality returning QB's.

As for Purdue, the stars are aligned with almost everyone returning from an 8 win season last year, an already record setting QB(single season passing yards), and the best offense in the league. The problem is the defense may not improve enough to contend for the title.

Question: What if there is a 3 or 4 way tie? Does every bet pay out?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

By the way, Penn State also plays Purdue at home. I already have that chalked up as one of the two "guaranteed, drinks for everyone if they win,run around town naked screaming" games for Purdue so it's pretty safe to assume that Penn State will win that game.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

1. Michigan - Lost most of their talent on defense and teams tend not to win championships without great defenses. Loaded offense.
2. Wisconsin - Are undersized up front defensively and have a weak LB core. Have a young, inexperienced QB, limited WR talent, and their O-line didn't play like outweighed everyone they faced by 50 lbs. Great backfield and secondary.
3. Ohio State - lost most of their talent on offense from last year and its tough to win the conference with a first year starter at QB. Great defense.
4. Penn State - Anthony Morelli is still a huge question mark and their running game is unproven. Solid defense.
5. Iowa - Why are they listed here? Completely rebuilding at almost all key positions. Great coaching?
6. Purdue - Defense will be abysmal. Offense is loaded with Tiller type weapons.
7. Michigan State - Rebuilding year without Stanton. Great coach.
8. Minnesota - Unproven QB and weak defense. Should feature a solid running game again.
9. Northwestern - Garbage this year. Great RB and great DE.
10. Illinois - Way too young still. Lots of talent though.
11. Indiana - Forgot they were in the Big Ten...

Rick, I thought PSU was the best bet on the board. That does not mean I think they are going to win it. Michigan is clearly the odds-on favorite and I think they will win it. I just think there is value in PSU at 5/1.

Now for the prediction that Dr. Ken and Mr. Reason and other Illini fans will not like: Illinois will have a winning season and go to a bowl.

The Illini two-deep has better talent than 5 other schools. Juice and Benn could be the 2nd best passing tandem in the league behind Henne and Manningham. The Illini defense will be much better. Though their record was bad last year, the Illini outgained its Big Ten opponents. Turnovers were a killer. The question will be whether Zook can coach this team to its potential.

My predicted order of finish:
1. Michigan
2. Penn State
3. Ohio State/Wisconsin
5. Iowa
6. Illinois
7. Purdue
8. Michigan State/Northwestern
10.Indiana
11.Minnesota

Coast, I agree with your assessment of the Illini at about 6. However, if this is actually true -



- then, brace yourself and let me take a sip of this Kool-aid here, then I would put the Illlini in the top 3 of the league.

HOWEVER, as much as I'd love to believe it, I do not think that statement is true. The Illini will be able to run the ball and play defense. They did it very well last year and they have more talent this year. Their inability to throw the ball cost them victories last year against Wisconsin, Penn State, and possibly Ohio State in consecutive weeks all on the road. Don't laugh, mistakes in the passing game cost them at least 2 if not all 3 of those games.

So, if the Illini really had an effective passing attack, they could really do some damage this year. But, I think Juice is probably still a year away and will just make too many mistakes - dropping them to the middle of the pack.

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You know me like that.

Curtis Painter and Dorien Bryant will both be 1st or 2nd all Big Ten. Curtis Painter will statistically have better numbers than Henne, but if Michigan has the season that is expected of them, he'll take first team.

Juice Williams is not a good quarterback, but he is a very good football player. You can't fix the complete lack of accuracy that he has over an off-season. He will be as dangerous as Antwaun Randle El was running the ball but he just flat out is not good at throwing the ball right now. He will improve, but it is going to take a while. He is still a dangerous QB and effective but I don't think next year is going to be his year to shine. He'll be improved next year, but the biggest jump made by almost all QB's is from their sophomore to junior years.

The Illini will be improved and should make it to a bowl. I however don't see them or Iowa being ahead of Purdue.

I'm sure I'll be dismissed as a Purdue homer but I've seen ten years of Joe Tiller football and his teams are dangerous with a returning QB going into his junior and senior years. Purdue normally exceeds low expectations and has recently failed with high expectations.

If I'm wrong, then a coaching change is coming to West Lafayette. Purdue will be playing in a New Years day bowl game(it just may be the Outback bowl).

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Rick, I would like to think a coaching change is coming in West Lafayette, but Cowboy Joe has underperformed and survived already so many years that he apparently has some pictures of somebody..or the Purdue administration is comfortable with mediocrity. So I won't predict that any more. He's 2-3 years overdue to be fired already. Purdue has 18 starters back and that's a huge plus, but the defense (432 ypg) was abysmal...so having 9 starters back doesn't mean much. WHen Purdue had almost everyone back on D a few years ago and were expected to be great, they were horrible. Tiller's teams simply don't play D. Looks like another flashy O that can't stand up to the best defenses and no defense at all to stop even the lamest offenses. Looks like another season of betting Purdue overs. Illinois' defense will be much better than the Boilers'. And let's not forget that after two years of not playing Ohio State and MIchigan, Purdue has to play both this year...and every other of the top 5 teams except Wisconsin. And that's the difference in why I put Illinois ahead of Purdue. Too bad Illinois doesn't play Purdue this year. That would have been a deciding matchup for Bowl positions.

Isn't Purdue right about where they should be, 7 or 8 wins, and a bowl game? They are not Michigan or Ohio State, they don't reload every year.

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Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

I'll agree he underperformed the last two years. I still have no clue what happened Kyle Orton's senior year. #5 in the country and beating the hell out of teams. Then one fumble, one injury, and a season that ends poorly. 2005 became a rebuilding year very quickly once it was obvious that it wasn't working. The fruits of that rebuilding are shown this year.

As for the defense, it was a patchwork group filled with many first year players. They aren't going to dominate a game, but if the offense holds up it's end of the bargain, it won't need to. I think the defense will make improvements to the point of being middle of the pack in the Big Ten. They were terrible last year.

I try not to be too much of a Purdue homer but I have to have optimism for the next year simply for the fact that this is the most talented offensive unit Purdue has had under Joe Tiller. This offense is better than any offense with Brees or Orton. The only reason that they didn't put up big numbers last year was turnovers and a freshman kicker that was abysmal. This team has 3 NFL quality receivers, 2 RB's that are better than any in recent memory, and a QB who already broke Drew Brees's single season passing mark as a sophmore(with an extra game played).

I know that it's all speculation in the pre-season, but I won't be a happy little Boilermaker if we aren't putting up 30+ points a game. Plus, I actually like playing Ohio State at home. Purdue plays them very well, and Joe Tiller is 2-1 against OSU at Ross-Ade. The one loss coming on a 4 and 1 40 yard pass that still hurts a bit(during the 2002 OSU National Championship season).

Joe Tiller's days at Purdue are numbered, and I fully expect with a good season this year, a succession plan will be introduced with Joe possibly coaching one more year. If this season doesn't have at least 8 wins with a tougher schedule then we thank Joe for bringing our program from the cellar, but we move on.

Joe Tiller still goes down as the best coach in Purdue history for resurrecting a program that was dead for 25+ years.

Purdue will surprise a lot of people this year.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Ok. If 8-4, with three of those wins against MAC teams, and 4-4 in the Big Ten, is your idea of a "surprise", then I agree with you. There is one team on this schedule that will have a winning record that I have them beating (ND). And I'm not so sure about that.

You surely have them beating Iowa, which would make them 9-3/5-3. But I think they could lose one along the way they should not lose just as easily as they could beat Iowa. Purdue fans should be riding high on October 1 at 5-0. Then the pain begins with four losses in the next five games. We will see how Tiller keeps his team focused after that stretch......

Purdue
09/01/07 at Toledo W
09/08/07 vs. Eastern Illinois W
09/15/07 vs. Central Michigan W
09/22/07 at Minnesota W
09/29/07 vs. Notre Dame W
10/06/07 vs. Ohio State L
10/13/07 at Michigan L
10/20/07 vs. Iowa L
10/27/07 vs. Northwestern W
11/03/07 at Penn State L
11/10/07 vs. Michigan State W
11/17/07 at Indiana W



Classic Purdue fan. It's all about the O. I will be disappointed also, because I expect to be betting "over" on PU in several games. Maybe the better question for you is will you be disappointed if PU puts up 35 points and loses?

The other thing that will be interesting in the Big Ten this season is that all teams are playing 12 games on 12 consecutive weeks. No weeks off. Depth will be a much more significant factor this season because there won't be occasional weeks off to rest aches, pains and minor injuries and recharge batteries.

I would be happy with 3-0 wins for the whole year. I don't think the defense is good enough for that so I have to root that our strength truly is a strength.

I see the team going 9-3, but with wins over OSU, ND, and Iowa, but finding a way to lose to a team they should beat. Judging by past history, I can't predict a 10 win season for Purdue since it would be a first in the Joe Tiller era.

I love our chances against OSU for the reasons that I have specified. OSU struggles against Purdue in WL for some reason, even the year they won the National Championship.

I know it sounds like I am making big predictions, but even the most objective observer can't make an argument as to why Purdue doesn't go at least 7-5. We'll see how right my predictions are and if the offense doesn't work like it should, then I'll look bad on them, but this offense is positioned to be great. They would have been last year but sophmore QB Curtis Painter turned the ball over too much.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!