I argued this point elsewhere and most respondents disagreed. I just wanted to elaborate a bit more on why I think they can win and see what you all think.

Premise 1: You do not need to have the most talented roster in the league to win it all, unlike the NBA.
Evidence: Baltimore, 2012

Premise 2: The Bears have significantly upgraded the roster in critical areas. And by "upgraded," I mean they have become average in areas where they have been below average. I'll try and summarize this below by using four grades: excellent, above average, average, and below average.

QB: above average
RB: above average
WR: above average
TE: average
OL: average
DL: above average
LB: average
CB: average
S: average
ST: above average

With that kind of roster, and seeing how you arguably do not need the most talented roster to win, why can't the Bears win it all this year? Of course this assumes the new coaching staff will use everyone the right way and so on...which I don't see a reason to doubt, at least not at this time. Thoughts?

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Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
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2013 CSFMB ROY

I agree, they are contenders ..assuming Briggs,Tillman don't fall apart.
Cutler is average IMO but most importantly the o-line is now average. I think Cutler is gone after this season.
I think the bears win 10-11 games n make playoffs.

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What that says to me is that you're saying they have no real weaknesses but they have no real strengths either. Don't you kind of need to be really good at one aspect of the game to be a legit contender? Also, what has Cutler done with the Bears that makes him "above average". He seems pretty average to me.

I want to believe that this team will contend this season but I just don't see it. Sure, you don't need to be the most talented team but you have to be great at something and this team isn't, in my opinion.

Red denotes questionable conclusions.

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"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014

Good points.

I guess what I'm proposing is that, yes, you can be average and win it all in the NFL.

If you look at the most recent previous winners, like the Giants, Packers, Steelers, and Ravens, I do not recall any superhuman traits on those teams except for the QB play of Rodgers, and perhaps the DL play of the Giants. But in both cases, it's not like anyone took a look at the rosters of both teams and immediately declared that they were contenders. Didn't the Packers barely make it into the playoffs anyway the year they won? I think they won an elimination game (for GB) against the Bears in the last week of the season to make it in. The Ravens weren't all that impressive last season either, on both sides of the ball.

So I do agree that it's preferable to at least excel at some positions on both sides of the ball, but I just don't think it's necessary given the modern day parity of the NFL. It just seems like if you've got some "guys," and the Bears have several, then you've got a chance.

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Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY

I think Marshall by himself elevates the WR crew, and I do expect Jeffery to develop further. And they may add a rookie to the mix, so then you've got Marshall, Jeffery, Bennett, and the rookie. But I see your point.

Cutler is statistically average, but I believe he is the difference between a playoff spot and irrelevance. I do not recall a single SB team in the past 2-3 years that did not have a QB who could make plays, and Cutler can make plays. I think your average QBs are folks like Palmer, Kolb, Cassel, Vick, etc. I do believe Cutler is a notch above those guys, which is the only reason the Bears have been in the playoff mix the past 2-3 years while the Cardinals, Raiders, Chiefs (except for a year, I think) have been largely irrelevant.

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Successful calls:

Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY

Tough schedule, but this team could win 10 or 11 games.

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We don’t have a trillion-dollar debt because we haven’t taxed enough; we have a trillion-dollar debt because we spend too much. — Ronald Reagan

two Pro Bowl corners gets you average...tough crowd

You give equal weight to each position. In reality, QB is several times more important than most of the positions. Those SB teams that you mentioned all had great runs by their QB. Three of the four have top QB to begin. If you get a run like the aforementioned QB out of Cutler, you are playoff bound. I don't think you will get that production.

Don't overrate the signings of Bushrod and Slauson. This OL is still slightly below average.

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This is true, but these teams had upper-tiered quarterbacking and superior coaching. Too early to tell whether the Bears have both, one or none.

I agree. Especially when it comes to the OL. Definitely not average yet.

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Palmer, Cassell, Kolb, and Vick are not average. They are bad. Cutler is almost the epitome of average since he's been in the league.

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Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

If Lovie was still around, I would have bumped the CBs up, but I think there are too many unknowns with a new DC for me to trust that the superb CB play will continue in what should be a modified defensive scheme.

You're right about the QB being more important than other positions. I'll group some of the top QBs this way:

Group 1

Brees
Rodgers
Brady
P. Manning

Group 2

Big Ben
E. Manning
Ryan
Flacco

Of course there are guys like RGIII, Luck, and so on, but since they're still raw I'm not sure where I'd put them, but we all know they are good and probably will be good for a long time.

Now, my point is we all know Cutler is nowhere near the first group, but I really don't think the gap between him and the second group is that considerable. My argument is that Cutler is capable of having as statistically productive a season as any of those guys in the second group.

So while FavreFan is correct to point out Cutler's been the epitome of average since he's been in the league, he's still arguably in the same stratosphere as those group two guys, all of whom have had their fair share of up and down seasons. They've never been consistently great. If that's the case, then that's all the Bears really need: A guy capable of having a really fine season who can make a play when you absolutely need one.

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Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY

So once you take out the top 16 or so QBs in the NFL Cutler is pretty much as good as any of the group that's left.

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I just don't see it that way. I believe he can match anything Rivers, Manning, or Flacco have done statistically. I also subscribe to the theory that he hasn't had the requisite talent around him in Chicago to make it work. I still can't believe the Bears went to the NFL championship game with the following WRs:

Devin Aromashodu
Earl Bennett
Rashied Davis
Devin Hester
Johnny Knox

They were also a promising 7-2 the next season with a bad Roy Williams as the only significant WR "upgrade."

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Successful calls:

Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY

Veganfan put that out there in black & white...excelent points made!

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favrefan said:"Chris Coghlan isn't gonna pay your rent, Jimmy."

The Bears offense will be better. They certainly cant be any worse that they were with hacks like Tice, Lovie, & the rest of the genius offensive coaches who were there last year. The defense wasn't great last year & I believe that they will be no worse than last year. The Bears won 10 games last year with a garbage offense. With a real NFL offense for the first time in many years, they should be able to win at least 10 games. But the NFL works in strange ways...& the Bears schedule appears to be difficult.
For the first time in many years the Bears had a GM who actually addressed the positions that needed improvement. What a novel concept.
The Bears might be really fun to watch this year. I just hope Trestman can get through to Cutler. If not, Jay should be outta here next year.

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We don’t have a trillion-dollar debt because we haven’t taxed enough; we have a trillion-dollar debt because we spend too much. — Ronald Reagan

And if we take the assumption that the offense has to be better even not by a giant percentage then the aging defense is not on the field as much. B&B or Mac had a dumb thought yesterday saying the CB's can't replicate their performance. Specifically that Tillman can't cause as many fumbles. Just because Lovie is gone does not mean these guys are not going to ball punch and he is the best at it.

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Elections have consequences.

The only quibble I have with this post is the suggestion that the defense didn't do well last year. The Bears were actually fifth in yards given up per game and nearly tied for second in points given up at around 17 per game. Lovie could definitely coach defense, but his biggest asset was getting guys to buy in and play hard.

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Successful calls:

Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY

The Bears defense had the most take-aways in the NFL with 44. The 2nd place team, NY Giants, had 35. The Bears will likely suffer a considerable regression.

You know that Jets fans say the exact same thing about Mark Sanchez, right?

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You and I know both that Sanchez and Cutler are nowhere near to being close. Over his career, Sanchez has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, and his career QB rating is in the low 70s while Cutler is mid 80s.

I don't know if Sanchez hasn't had enough talent around him, but after five years I think we know that he pretty much sucks. Cutler isn't great, but he doesn't suck either. And I think you can win with a guy who is passable for the most part, and who has the potential to be very good from time to time.

Outside of future HOFers like P. Manning, Brady, Brees, and Rodgers, how does Cutler not match up to other Superbowl QBs?

Here are recent QBs who played a big role in leading their teams to the Superbowl:

E. Manning
Flacco
Gannon
Big Ben
McNabb
Warner (the older Cardinals version, not the Rams megastar)
Hasselback

My argument has been that Cutler can do as much if not more than all of the guys on this list.

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Successful calls:

Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY

Bears win Super Bowl and Cutler gets a Flacco type deal and I dont care because I got to see them win.

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To put it differently, my argument is you don't necessarily need a superstar QB to win it all. If all you need is a QB who can put pressure on the D, and is potent enough to erase big deficits from time to time, then I believe the Bears have that guy.

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Successful calls:

Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY

I'm with you Vegan.

But I'm still going to eat meat. Dealbreaker?

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Bears turnover ratio was a total fluke and will never happen again. That was worth 2-3 wins alone.

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Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

Hasn't it happened quite a bit in the last few years? Something that happens to the same to over the course of several years is a "fluke"? Interesting...

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Sure it may and likely will drop off that max but the players are still there with the skill. Or did they forget how to do that because Lovie is gone?

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Elections have consequences.

Bears turnover ratio during Lovie
-8
6
8
-1
5
-6
4
2
20

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Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

If the Bears regress in the TO department, it won't reflect well on the new DC. It wasn't just Lovie, but he did teach that pretty damn well.

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Successful calls:

Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY

not at all.

_________________
Successful calls:

Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY