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Hatchetman
PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2013 8:52 pm 
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I would guess guys who always hit the ball in the same place must have slightly lower BABIPs. Haven't researched this.

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Terry's Peeps
PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2013 8:53 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2013/05/08/bernstein-hawk-has-to-be-right/

By Dan Bernstein-
CBSChicago.com Senior Columnist


Show me the “hang wif’em” percentage, and we’ll talk. They keep hitting the ball hard, and the other team always has a man there. That’s just bad luck, since there’s no way opponents could possibly position their defenses based on data indicating where a player is likely to hit a certain pitch.


That's correct isn't it? We know that over enough attempts the batting average on all balls in play is near .300. Theo Epstein is likely the only one capable of outsmarting such randomness.


Hasn't Dan talked about players abnormally high or low BABIP and being lucky or unlucky?

Tomorrow at 5 Dan.

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Keyser Soze
PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2013 9:09 pm 
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I read somewhere that the actual batting average for balls in play is .292. BABIP "assumes" a .300 avergae because science loves round numbers.
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good dolphin
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 8:17 am 
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Keyser Soze wrote:
I read somewhere that the actual batting average for balls in play is .292. BABIP "assumes" a .300 avergae because science loves round numbers.


I haven't researched the equation so I am truely interested in the answer to this question: if the BABIP is .292, then how can it ever be argued that a strikeout is the same as any other out? It would seem that the other out would be superior because of its potential.

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Hatchetman
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 8:21 am 
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the potential from an error or advanced runner is roughly canceled out by the risk of a double play.

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good dolphin
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 8:26 am 
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Hatchetman wrote:
the potential from an error or advanced runner is roughly canceled out by the risk of a double play.


I'm talking about the roughly 30 percent chance that it will be a hit. On the micro level you say an out is an out. On the macro level shouldn't there be more of a stigma against the high strike out group as, if they were making contact instead of striking out, they would most likely be getting on base more.

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Hatchetman
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 8:29 am 
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well all those homers would now be long fly outs too.

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Rod
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 8:40 am 
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good dolphin wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
the potential from an error or advanced runner is roughly canceled out by the risk of a double play.


I'm talking about the roughly 30 percent chance that it will be a hit. On the micro level you say an out is an out. On the macro level shouldn't there be more of a stigma against the high strike out group as, if they were making contact instead of striking out, they would most likely be getting on base more.


Right. There is some cognitive dissonance in various SABRmetric stats. But people like bernstein just grab whichever one suits the point they want to make at a given time without giving it much thought.

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Hatchetman
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 8:46 am 
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Again, everyone gets bogged down in the minute details. OK, maybe strikeouts are a little worse either way. The big picture is, does this guy suck or not? Right now the Sox have shitty players at almost every position. That is the problem. You don't need Bill James to tell you that.

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