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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 10:57 am 
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Bagels wrote:
i know this is an insider article (i'm not a subscriber ) but you don't really even need to read it, just the fact someone would even think to write an article like this

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs ... ce-history

I don't know, hypESPN having the article doesn't mean that much.


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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 12:52 pm 
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It was written before the game last night and based on their play over their last 50 games it wasn't a terrible question. They had only lost 4 games and they weren't trying in 1 of them. Some may argue they don't try most games.



After two nail-biters in the Eastern Conference finals, the Miami Heat blew out the Indiana Pacers 114-96 in Game 3, thanks to LeBron James pummeling Paul George in the post and Udonis Haslem forgetting how to miss a jump shot.Because of a little phenomenon I like to call the "Permanence of the Last Game," we tend to believe the latest game portends the rest of the season. After a Game 2 loss, the sky was falling in Miami. After a Game 3 rout and ahead of Game 4 on Tuesday, the Heat have us thinking about their place in NBA history.But really, how does this Heat squad look when we line it up against the all-time greats?So far, it ranks right up there with the very best.To recap: The Heat are a preposterous 47-4 since early February. Like round numbers? No team has ever been better in a 50-game stretch than the Heat; only the 1966-67 Philadelphia 76ers and the 2006-07 Dallas Mavericks have matched it.The 50 or so sample of games is not entirely arbitrary, because midseason steal Chris Andersenjoined the team right around that time. In fact, the Heat are 49-5 when Andersen has played this season. How good is that record? It's a 74-win pace in a standard 82-game season.That's right, better than the juggernaut Chicago Bulls team that went 72-10 in the 1995-96 regular season.There's more: After Sunday's win in Indiana, the Heat became the first team in NBA history to win five consecutive postseason road games by double digits. They've won 23 of their past 24 road games dating back to the regular season. What's even crazier is that this team hasn't lost consecutive games in almost five months, not since the Jan. 8 and Jan. 10 losses to Indiana and Portland.For perspective, five months ago Rudy Gay was still playing for the Memphis Grizzlies, and the Los Angeles Lakers had only reset their season four times at that point.With all of this in mind, it makes plenty of sense that people are wondering if this Heat team has a chance to be the best team ever. But right now, is it on track to be better than the 1995-96 Bulls?Not quite.To anchor our discussion, we'll need a handy guide to walk us through NBA history. Luckily, we have one courtesy of Per Diem founder John Hollinger, who joined the Grizzlies' front office in December. A few years ago, he devised a system to rank the best Finals teams since the NBA-ABA merger. Using criteria that awards points based on regular-season and postseason performance (measured by average point margin and win-loss records), Hollinger rated 70 NBA finalists dating back to the merger. For all of the gory details about the system, check the sidebar.So, what were the best teams? Hollinger's system ranked the top three like so:(Note: The figures in parentheses are regular-season record, postseason record, average score margin in regular season, and average score margin in postseason.)1. 1995-96 Chicago Bulls: 327.9 points. (72-10, 15-3, plus-12.2, plus-10.6)2. 1986-87 Los Angeles Lakers: 301.5 points. (65-17, 15-3, plus-9.3, plus-11.4)3. 1985-86 Boston Celtics: 301.1 points. (67-15, 15-3, plus-9.4, plus-10.3)This more or less conforms to the conventional wisdom. As you can see, the 1995-96 Bulls squad ranks far and away the best team since the merger, and that jives pretty well with how we remember the squad that steamrolled through the league.But where does this Heat team fit in with all of that?Let's dive in.

Where do the Heat currently rank?

The Heat have been so dominant this season that even without playing another game, they'd rank in the top 20 among this group of Finals teams. The Heat already check in with 242 points, which is good for 17th, just above the 1999-2000 Lakers and behind the 2006-07 Spurs.Erik Spoelstra's crew has reached that point total because it won 66 games in the regular season and has lost only two postseason games so far, which is important because the Hollinger formula docks teams for every postseason loss on the ledger. That 1999-2000 Lakers team lost eight games en route to its title, including two in the first round to the Sacramento Kings.What's also key for this Heat team is its postseason average point margin. So far, it's beating teams by an average of 11.7 points -- and if that holds, it would be even better than the top-ranked 1995-96 Bulls (plus-10.6 points). It's a stroke of poetry that the 2012-13 Heat handed the Bulls their worst postseason loss in franchise history in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinals.

What would it take for the 2012-13 Heat to beat the 1995-96 Bulls?

A miracle, pretty much. That is, under this system.Using the formula, we find that the Heat need about another 85 points to get to the 1995-96 Bulls' mark of 327.9 points. In order to reach that bar, the Heat would need to win every game from here on out by an average of 31.3 points. Yeah, 31.3 points. The Heat have beaten a team only twice this season by at least that amount (the Bulls on May 8, and the Bobcats on March 24).So even if the Heat slam the Pacers by 40 points in each of the next two games and trample the Spurs in four games by an average of 25 points, it still wouldn't put the Heat ahead of the 1995-96 Bulls team in this system. Why the enormous gap? Each win in the regular season is worth two points in Hollinger's system, so the Bulls' 72-10 record weighs heavily against this Heat team, which started a good, but not great 29-14 this season.Should we penalize the Heat for their relatively sluggish start to the season? Under this system, how a team finishes the regular season is just as important as how it starts, but it's understandable if you think otherwise (especially if you're a Heat fan).

Where do the 2012-13 Heat end up at their current pace?

The next two weeks will decide if the Heat can enter the "best ever" conversation. So far, so good. If the Heat win the rest of the playoffs with their average scoring margin this postseason (plus-11.7 points), they'll finish with a 298.5 point total, which puts them just a hair behind the top three teams (the 1986-87 Lakers and the 1985-86 Celtics finished with 301.5 points and 301.1 points, respectively).Even if the Heat lose a game and their average point margin drops to 10 points, their spot in the top five would be secured. If they need seven games to finish off the Pacers and the Spurs, they'd be virtually guaranteed to rank among the top eight.What would it take to place second to the 1995-96 Bulls? The Heat would have to win by 14 points on average the rest of the way -- which is not unthinkable, especially if Dwyane Wadecontinues to get healthier. But the Pacers (and potentially the Spurs) won't make it easy for the Heat. Speaking of the Pacers and the Spurs ...

What about the Pacers and the Spurs?

Despite the chatter these days, the Heat haven't raised the 2013 Larry O'Brien Trophy yet. The only team that has punched a ticket to the Finals, the Spurs, could be the last one standing. If they swept the Finals at their current winning margin of 10.1 points, where would that get them?Eighth, with 267.7 points. Who would they displace in the eighth spot? The 1998-99 Spurs (267.1 points). Calling it the best Spurs team ever would not be a stretch. However, if the Spurs win the title in seven games, it's more likely that they finish right around the 2007 champion Spurs, which finished 16th overall. That Spurs squad swept James' Cavaliers after finishing an identical 58-24 during the regular season and posting a 16-4 postseason record (oddly, they won by just 4.0 points on average).Of course, we can't forget about the Pacers. Under a fairly reasonable assumption that they'd need seven games to stave off the Heat and the Spurs while maintaining their average score margin (plus-1.1), the Pacers would check in at 163.1 points. Would that make them the worst champion on the board? Actually, no. The 1977-78 Washington Bullets finished with 162.6 points. The Pacers would just squeeze by.Ultimately, the Heat are still the favorite to win the championship if you look at the Vegas odds and our ESPN Forecast. They could carve out a spot in the "best ever" conversation in the next few weeks. But as the best ever? That title is probably safe with the 1995-96 Bulls

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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 2:00 pm 
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It is nice that this series is interesting after Memphis didn't show up to play the Spurs.

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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 2:03 pm 
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Mini Ditka wrote:
It is nice that this series is interesting after Memphis didn't show up to play the Spurs.

I was very surprised the Grizzlies didn't put up more of a fight vs. the Spurs. The next question. Will Lionel Hollins be offered a huge truckload of money by the Nets or Clippers to leave Memphis this summer? Needless to say, Hollins is very much in demand.


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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 2:04 pm 
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Keeping Score wrote:
Mini Ditka wrote:
It is nice that this series is interesting after Memphis didn't show up to play the Spurs.


Memphis showed up in 3 of the 4 games, 2 being OT. Quit hurting me.


Let me make that more precise. Zach Randolph didn't show up to play the Spurs.

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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 2:08 pm 
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I have to begrudgingly agree with MD here, whose thoughts on the Grizzilies' demise are more accurate than his signature.

OKC dispatched the Spurs last year 4-1, and it's hard to see them not doing the same to the Grizzilies had Westbrook stayed healthy. I like Memphis, but I don't think their regular season success translates well to post-season ball. They've got a bunch of nice players that superior stars tend to run over in the playoffs.

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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 2:13 pm 
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Nas wrote:
It was written before the game last night and based on their play over their last 50 games it wasn't a terrible question. They had only lost 4 games and they weren't trying in 1 of them. Some may argue they don't try most games.

The metric in the article itself, before the loss yesterday, had them 17th best. Then it extrapolates them beating the Pacers and the Spurs by the same amount of points as they beat the god awful Bucks and broken down Bulls. Pretty sketchy.


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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 2:15 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
I have to begrudgingly agree with MD here, whose thoughts on the Grizzilies' demise are more accurate than his signature.

OKC dispatched the Spurs last year 4-1, and it's hard to see them not doing the same to the Grizzilies had Westbrook stayed healthy. I like Memphis, but I don't think their regular season success translates well to post-season ball. They've got a bunch of nice players that superior stars tend to run over in the playoffs.


It was actually 4-2 because the Spurs won the first two at home. You have to remember that OKC beat the Spurs because of James Harden and their ability to make jump shots. Kevin Martin is a good player, but he's not the super sub type guy that Harden was. Harden was actually good enough to start, but it's a luxury OKC couldn't afford to bring an All-Star in off the bench. In my opinion OKC was foolish to choose Ibaka over Harden.

OKC probably beats Memphis with Westbrook, but it's certainly possible the Spurs could beat OKC this season since Harden is not playing.

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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 2:17 pm 
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It's a little premature to anoint the Heat as the greatest all time when they haven't won this year. It's sort of like Boers and Bernstein who will probably not give the Pacers credit if they can manage to beat the Heat. But it's like the Patriots who went 16-0 and lost the Super Bowl. You can be unstoppable in the regular season, but if you don't win the title you'll be remembered for that.

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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 2:20 pm 
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Losing Harden is never a good thing, but OKC still had the best record in the WC, and second best overall. Durant and Westbrook are very hard to beat, and I still see them as WC champs next year.

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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 2:22 pm 
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Mini Ditka wrote:
It's a little premature to anoint the Heat as the greatest all time when they haven't won this year. It's sort of like Boers and Bernstein who will probably not give the Pacers credit if they can manage to beat the Heat. But it's like the Patriots who went 16-0 and lost the Super Bowl. You can be unstoppable in the regular season, but if you don't win the title you'll be remembered for that.

They've only won 1 NBA Championship, even though the Heat has been to the NBA Finals the last 2 years. I think when LeBron James, Dwyane Wade & Chris Bosh had that idiotic pep rally following "The Decision" at American Airlines Arena, I remember they set a high standard back in 2010. Those 3 had the nerve to suggest they were going to win as many as 8 NBA Championships. As it stands now, they'll be lucky to win more than 2 titles if Wade's knee stays in one piece.


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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 2:34 pm 
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SHARK wrote:
They've only won 1 NBA Championship, even though the Heat has been to the NBA Finals the last 2 years. I think when LeBron James, Dwyane Wade & Chris Bosh had that idiotic pep rally following "The Decision" at American Airlines Arena, I remember they set a high standard back in 2010. Those 3 had the nerve to suggest they were going to win as many as 8 NBA Championships. As it stands now, they'll be lucky to win more than 2 titles if Wade's knee stays in one piece.


Well they've got one thing going for them, the most difficult piece that most teams fail to acquire: a superstar in his prime. So as long as they can keep building around him, I don't think it will matter much if we demote the Heat from a super-team to a very good team due to Wade's inevitable downfall. James, another legit baller, and a good supporting cast is enough to keep the Heat in the championship hunt for the rest of James' career.

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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 2:37 pm 
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I'm not saying this will happen. But if the Heat do not win this year or next year LeBron could join another team.

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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 2:39 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
I have to begrudgingly agree with MD here, whose thoughts on the Grizzilies' demise are more accurate than his signature.


Maybe you don't understand that fundamentalist Muslims behead people.

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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 2:42 pm 
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Mini Ditka wrote:

Maybe you don't understand that fundamentalist Muslims behead people.


I don't think you understand what stereotypes and bigotry are, or generalizations for that matter.

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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 2:44 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
Mini Ditka wrote:

Maybe you don't understand that fundamentalist Muslims behead people.


I don't think you understand what stereotypes and bigotry are, or generalizations for that matter.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beheading_ ... e_of_Islam

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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 2:49 pm 
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Why would you have an avatar of somebody violating Leviticus 19:28? You're worse than a Muslim extremist.


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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 2:53 pm 
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Mini Ditka wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
Mini Ditka wrote:

Maybe you don't understand that fundamentalist Muslims behead people.


I don't think you understand what stereotypes and bigotry are, or generalizations for that matter.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beheading_ ... e_of_Islam


Really? A Wiki article that has the following phrase in bold print:
Quote:
This article is written like a personal reflection or opinion essay rather than an encyclopedic description of the subject. Please help improve it by rewriting it in an encyclopedic style. (May 2013)


I don't want to prolong this discussion since we're in the wrong section, but this is about maturity and intellectual honesty. It's wrong to so glibly and recklessly paint broad strokes about others, as if you don't care about the veracity and reasonableness of what you say. It's too bad you can't see that, unless perhaps some turd in his underwear makes a Wiki entry about it for your perusal.

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Last edited by veganfan21 on Wed May 29, 2013 3:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 2:53 pm 
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KDdidit wrote:
Why would you have an avatar of somebody violating Leviticus 19:28? You're worse than a Muslim extremist.


So you're saying having an avatar of a guy with some tattoos is worse than supporting the beheading of non-Muslims?

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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 3:10 pm 
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Mini Ditka wrote:
KDdidit wrote:
Why would you have an avatar of somebody violating Leviticus 19:28? You're worse than a Muslim extremist.


So you're saying having an avatar of a guy with some tattoos is worse than supporting the beheading of non-Muslims?

Indubitably.


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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 3:21 pm 
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SHARK wrote:
I was very surprised the Grizzlies didn't put up more of a fight vs. the Spurs. The next question. Will Lionel Hollins be offered a huge truckload of money by the Nets or Clippers to leave Memphis this summer? Needless to say, Hollins is very much in demand.


Since BKN and LAC will look for "big name" coaches, if Hollins goes to either team I will guess it will be as a consolation prize. Phil Jackson is probably hoping a team with no stable management structure (e.g. a GM on the hot seat) will look his way.

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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 3:27 pm 
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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 3:33 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
SHARK wrote:
I was very surprised the Grizzlies didn't put up more of a fight vs. the Spurs. The next question. Will Lionel Hollins be offered a huge truckload of money by the Nets or Clippers to leave Memphis this summer? Needless to say, Hollins is very much in demand.


Since BKN and LAC will look for "big name" coaches, if Hollins goes to either team I will guess it will be as a consolation prize. Phil Jackson is probably hoping a team with no stable management structure (e.g. a GM on the hot seat) will look his way.

Phil Jackson isn't interested in coaching anymore. He's more interested in a front office position than coaching. As for the Nets & Clippers, they have a lot of $$$$ to play with and can break the bank to lure Hollins if they wanted. He doesn't have the resume that Phil has, but Lionel's done an outstanding job down in Memphis. I'm not sure the Grizzlies want to get into a bidding war financially.


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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 3:36 pm 
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SHARK wrote:
I'm not sure the Grizzlies want to get into a bidding war financially.


gee what gave you that idea...


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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 3:41 pm 
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Bagels wrote:
SHARK wrote:
I'm not sure the Grizzlies want to get into a bidding war financially.


gee what gave you that idea...

Lionel Hollins doesn't have a contract for next season down in Memphis, believe it or not. The Grizzlies would like to give him an extension, but I'm not sure they have the resources to possibly outbid the Nets and/or Clippers if they wanted to make a similar offer. It's the business of basketball.


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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 3:44 pm 
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I meant if PJ wanted to get back in the game as a VP of basketball operations. I wonder if the Nets regret signing King to an extension given that Jackson is now interested in a similar position somewhere, although I don't know how much geography factors into Jackson's thinking.

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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 3:48 pm 
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I don't think the King extension matters at all. The Nets would still happily fire him and hire Phil. But Phil isn't taking a job that offers zero roster flexibility and a 47 win team for the next three years.

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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 3:59 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
I don't think the King extension matters at all. The Nets would still happily fire him and hire Phil. But Phil isn't taking a job that offers zero roster flexibility and a 47 win team for the next three years.

That Russian owner in Brooklyn wants to make a big splash, complete with a brand new arena called the Barclays Center. I don't know if working for arguably one of the worst owners in team sports in Clippers' owner Donald Sterling is exactly what Phil Jackson would want to step into. Besides, there's no guarantee Chris Paul sticks around & there's a chance Blake Griffin might be traded.


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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 7:50 pm 
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KDdidit wrote:
Nas wrote:
It was written before the game last night and based on their play over their last 50 games it wasn't a terrible question. They had only lost 4 games and they weren't trying in 1 of them. Some may argue they don't try most games.

The metric in the article itself, before the loss yesterday, had them 17th best. Then it extrapolates them beating the Pacers and the Spurs by the same amount of points as they beat the god awful Bucks and broken down Bulls. Pretty sketchy.


It just gave the reader an idea of what it would take for them to move up from 17th and how unlikely it was for them to approach the Bulls. Bagels assumption was clearly wrong.

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PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 10:48 pm 
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SHARK wrote:
Besides, there's no guarantee Chris Paul sticks around & there's a chance Blake Griffin might be traded


Shark if you were the GM for the Clippers would you trade Blake Griffin?

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