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 Post subject: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 9:18 am 
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39-59 Did you ever expect them to be this bad? I expected them to finish in 3rd behind the Tigers and Indians, but not in last place and 20 games under .500 on the 25th of July. I predicted Peavy would get hurt and spend a month or more on the DL, that was easy enough, the guy had spent over a month on the DL in 5 of the last 6 seasons. I predicted Sale would not be as good as the strain of too many innings (120 additional over the season before) would have diminished his level of performance (which should be MORE of a problem in the next 2 months) and I predicted that Flowers would be a big flop, as he had struck out in 41% of his at bats the season before. Thinking he would be a good replacement for A.J. was foolish. But 20 games under?? Didn't think it would be this bad.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 9:36 am 
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In a short answer no. I expect this to be a team floating around 500 all year.

I do disagree with your assessment of Chris Sale. Wins and losses are not a good measure of a pitcher's success.
His WHIP is lower (1.023), His K's are up (10/9IP), ERA is a bit lower than last year. K/BB is up from last year. His 2013 is better than 2012.


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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 9:44 am 
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Don't worry, Steve. The White Sox will refill the canteen in 2014!

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 9:45 am 
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Bears.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 9:46 am 
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Hawkeye Vince wrote:
His 2013 is better than 2012.



No. The "when" matters. He hasn't been as effective in his games this season. It's not all just bad luck. It's game management too. Like thinking you should pitch to Cabrera.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 9:55 am 
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And away we go...

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 10:02 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
And away we go...


Again, Frank, and I'm not sure why this is so tough for you to grasp, there's a world of difference between saying a guy is pitching better than his record and saying he's having a good year. There's no way Sale has been better this season than last, although you might think so if you simply looked at his WHIP and some other ancillary statistics.

There's more to being a starting pitcher than "dominating" hitters. You would think with the whole "I wanted to pitch to Cabrera" thing would illustrate that. It's about having a plan and executing it. Sale has been better than last year in many situations this season, but too many times in key moments he has been worse and that is reflected in his W/L record.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 10:05 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
There's no way Sale has been better this season than last
I never said or indicated otherwise.

He was an All Star last year and this year, and both times he deserved it. You have to be having a good year to make the All Star team when you are voted in by the players or picked by the manager. He's having a good year. Thats all there is to it.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 10:11 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
There's no way Sale has been better this season than last
I never said or indicated otherwise.

He was an All Star last year and this year, and both times he deserved it. You have to be having a good year to make the All Star team when you are voted in by the players or picked by the manager. He's having a good year. Thats all there is to it.


Vince said it and I disagree. And I disagree with you in that I don't think he's having a particularly good year at all. It's really just philosophical. I was at that game Peavy won last Saturday. I guess you would say he had pitched better if he had lost 3-2. I just disagree with that thinking.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 10:15 am 
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Its ok that you are wrong, Orr. Its cool.

refill the canteen in 2014!!!!!

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 10:25 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
There's no way Sale has been better this season than last
I never said or indicated otherwise.

He was an All Star last year and this year, and both times he deserved it. You have to be having a good year to make the All Star team when you are voted in by the players or picked by the manager. He's having a good year. Thats all there is to it.


Vince said it and I disagree. And I disagree with you in that I don't think he's having a particularly good year at all. It's really just philosophical. I was at that game Peavy won last Saturday. I guess you would say he had pitched better if he had lost 3-2. I just disagree with that thinking.


Over time I've come to better appreciate your position, but I think one hangup that some of us may have, I know I do, is that in this rationale you're compelled to label bailout wins as good games.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 10:54 am 
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veganfan21 wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
There's no way Sale has been better this season than last
I never said or indicated otherwise.

He was an All Star last year and this year, and both times he deserved it. You have to be having a good year to make the All Star team when you are voted in by the players or picked by the manager. He's having a good year. Thats all there is to it.


Vince said it and I disagree. And I disagree with you in that I don't think he's having a particularly good year at all. It's really just philosophical. I was at that game Peavy won last Saturday. I guess you would say he had pitched better if he had lost 3-2. I just disagree with that thinking.


Over time I've come to better appreciate your position, but I think one hangup that some of us may have, I know I do, is that in this rationale you're compelled to label bailout wins as good games.


What do you mean by "bailout" wins? When a guy is taken out after giving up the lead and his teams scores the next half inning to get it back? Sure, that happens. Sometimes he'll leave with the lead and the pen will blow the game for him too. In the first case, he gets the win. In the second he gets a no decision.

To me, "game management" is illustrated perfectly by Brian McCann's grand slam at-bat against "Losing Pitcher" John Danks with two out last week. When you look at the numbers and fold them into his numbers for the entire season, it looks like he pitched a good game. I get tired of hearing "he pitched good enough to win". No, he didn't. If he had, he would have. Pitching good enough to win means allowing one less than the opposing pitcher(s). That's a starter's job. Nothing else.

But back to that McCann at-bat. That was the whole ballgame. All the "domination" of guys in different innings before and after that are immaterial. Here's the ballgame. Forget run support. This is Danks vs. McCann. And Danks managed poorly. He showed the guy all his pitches and finally put one where he could take it deep. It wasn't even a terrible pitch. Just not good enough. Danks wasn't good enough to put him away. But that's not true. We know Danks is good enough to put him away. He's showed us that by producing ancillary numbers that are more than respectable. What he isn't good at is managing a game. Pitching with a plan.

I've seen the majority of Mark Buehrle's starts over the years. He has a curveball, but he rarely throws it. It's a decent curveball and he can locate it fairly well. It's not something like what Kershaw throws, but it's okay. If he threw it a whole lot it probably wouldn't be. Fangraphs gives us the luxury of seeing a complete breakdown of pitch types. I've seen a game where Buehrle was in trouble late. He had thrown a lot of pitches and he got into a situation similar to the one Danks had with McCann the other night. Here's the ballgame. This batter. This pitch. Buehrle hadn't thrown a curveball all night. But he had two strikes on that hitter and the guy looked like he could go all night just fouling him off like Appling until he got one he could drive. This is the ballgame. Buehrle dropped that curve right over and walked off the mound. The batters knees buckled. That's game management. That's pitching. And that's what gets you a high winning percentage.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 10:56 am 
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During a long season, the manager has less impact per game. Maybe he can find one or two guys he can take under his wing and improve, but thats not why a manager is there.

A playoff run, game, Ws, it does make a difference. Better be thinking 3 steps ahead, at least. Some, like Bevington were 2 steps behind

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 11:29 am 
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Like JORR & Frank go back and forth with the good pitching stuff (I agree with Frank),one thing that sticks in my crawl is the fallacy of a manager not making a difference in EVERY game. That is total bullshit. When some hacker swings at a 3-1 pitch and hits into a double play with 1st and 2nd occupied,the manager could have asked for a bunt or given the red light (don't swing) from the dugout. A manager controls everything,from benching the WRONG guy on a particular day to leaving in a starter too long or removing too early.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:25 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

What do you mean by "bailout" wins? When a guy is taken out after giving up the lead and his teams scores the next half inning to get it back? Sure, that happens. Sometimes he'll leave with the lead and the pen will blow the game for him too. In the first case, he gets the win. In the second he gets a no decision.

To me, "game management" is illustrated perfectly by Brian McCann's grand slam at-bat against "Losing Pitcher" John Danks with two out last week. When you look at the numbers and fold them into his numbers for the entire season, it looks like he pitched a good game. I get tired of hearing "he pitched good enough to win". No, he didn't. If he had, he would have. Pitching good enough to win means allowing one less than the opposing pitcher(s). That's a starter's job. Nothing else.

But back to that McCann at-bat. That was the whole ballgame. All the "domination" of guys in different innings before and after that are immaterial. Here's the ballgame. Forget run support. This is Danks vs. McCann. And Danks managed poorly. He showed the guy all his pitches and finally put one where he could take it deep. It wasn't even a terrible pitch. Just not good enough. Danks wasn't good enough to put him away. But that's not true. We know Danks is good enough to put him away. He's showed us that by producing ancillary numbers that are more than respectable. What he isn't good at is managing a game. Pitching with a plan.

I've seen the majority of Mark Buehrle's starts over the years. He has a curveball, but he rarely throws it. It's a decent curveball and he can locate it fairly well. It's not something like what Kershaw throws, but it's okay. If he threw it a whole lot it probably wouldn't be. Fangraphs gives us the luxury of seeing a complete breakdown of pitch types. I've seen a game where Buehrle was in trouble late. He had thrown a lot of pitches and he got into a situation similar to the one Danks had with McCann the other night. Here's the ballgame. This batter. This pitch. Buehrle hadn't thrown a curveball all night. But he had two strikes on that hitter and the guy looked like he could go all night just fouling him off like Appling until he got one he could drive. This is the ballgame. Buehrle dropped that curve right over and walked off the mound. The batters knees buckled. That's game management. That's pitching. And that's what gets you a high winning percentage.


I see what you're saying, but I think " I get tired of hearing "he pitched good enough to win". No, he didn't. If he had, he would have. Pitching good enough to win means allowing one less than the opposing pitcher(s). That's a starter's job. Nothing else. " sort of puts equal responsibility on the pitcher's offense to create the one run differential against the opposing pitcher(s) of which you speak Would you agree? Nothing you said is incorrect, but I think you're placing a disproportionate amount of responsibility on the pitcher.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:53 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
I see what you're saying, but I think " I get tired of hearing "he pitched good enough to win". No, he didn't. If he had, he would have. Pitching good enough to win means allowing one less than the opposing pitcher(s). That's a starter's job. Nothing else. " sort of puts equal responsibility on the pitcher's offense to create the one run differential against the opposing pitcher(s) of which you speak Would you agree? Nothing you said is incorrect, but I think you're placing a disproportionate amount of responsibility on the pitcher.


And I understand what you're saying, but my view would be that the offensive you speak of is just numbers generated off the opposing pitchers(s) who are running their own "game management" within the context of the same game. And yeah, I also understand that all offenses aren't equal. But within the space of a single game with the better offense facing a pitcher who is supposed to be great (Chris Sale, for example) and Sale's offense facing a pitcher who is supposed to be ordinary (Erik Bedard, Jarrod Parker, etc.) the difference between the two offenses is razor thin at best.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 9:52 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
No one has ever been more wrong on this board than JORR and his view of W-L, Chris Sale, and "ancillary stats."


Except your arguments are weak. WHIP was the be all end all but the guy you said was the best starter ever isn't even in the top 200 in that category. You certainly didn't come up with the idea that "winning percentage is a bad stat" on your own. You're just parroting some shit you read.

My view of Chris Sale is right on. He's a pitcher with dominating stuff having a not so great season. Ancillary stats are just that- ancillary. The object of the game is not to produce the lowest WHIP. And anyway, it's pretty unscientific to compare the WHIP of pitchers who are facing hitters with different plate umps and hitter's backgrounds.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 10:09 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
And now we begin the part where you say I said stuff I never did. I assume you are referring to the Nolan Ryan discussions. Please find the post you think I made and quote it for the masses.

Thanks buddy!


You know exactly what you said. Do you really want me to find it? You're going to look stupid when I juxtapose it against your insistence that WHIP is the primary tool for judging pitchers. Why don't you just stop now. You don't know enough to argue this with me.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Fri Jul 26, 2013 9:56 am 
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JORR is dominating the dojo once again.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Fri Jul 26, 2013 9:58 am 
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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Fri Jul 26, 2013 9:59 am 
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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Fri Jul 26, 2013 10:20 am 
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Regardless of the argument, I love a good situational baseball story from the pitcher's perspective


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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Fri Jul 26, 2013 10:30 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
immessedup17 wrote:
And now we begin the part where you say I said stuff I never did. I assume you are referring to the Nolan Ryan discussions. Please find the post you think I made and quote it for the masses.

Thanks buddy!


You know exactly what you said. Do you really want me to find it? You're going to look stupid when I juxtapose it against your insistence that WHIP is the primary tool for judging pitchers. Why don't you just stop now. You don't know enough to argue this with me.

Yes, go find it. I already told you to; you don't need further permission from me. It is obvious you think I said something that I didn't. I want you to realize it.

So go back and find all of my posts on the subject. You'll see that a) I think Nolan Ryan eeks in to a Top 10, but best ever? No way. And b) I never said any stat, WHIP included, can be used by itself to determine a pitcher's skill. It is better than W-L though.


Okay, you said he was in the Top Ten of all-time and then posted a bunch of links, some suggesting her was the greatest ever.

immessedup17 wrote:
Nolan Ryan isn't GOAT? Fine. Not Top 5? Fine. Not Top 10? We'll talk but I probably disagree.

immessedup17 wrote:
WHIP. You can sort any regular season's WHIP leaders (and bottom feeders) and it makes complete sense. It is very closely related to a pitcher's overall skill...


Is WHIP really "closely related to a pitcher's overall skill"? Is Ryan's 274th ranked WHIP just an anomaly that doesn't prevent him from being in the Top Ten of all-time? Is Rudy May's skill the equivalent of Ryan's?

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Fri Jul 26, 2013 10:52 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
HAHA. Way to cut off my quote, you fucking tool.

immessedup17 wrote:
WHIP. You can sort any regular season's WHIP leaders (and bottom feeders) and it makes complete sense. It is very closely related to a pitcher's overall skill....and can be used, in conjunction with a few other "sexy stats"...to determine pitcher skill rankings...who'd you want to give the ball to.


Listen here, jerkwad, and stop talking in circles. Is WHIP closely related to a pitcher's overall skill? If it is, you're telling me Rudy May and Nolan Ryan are equal. Just back out of the thread slowly before you look any dumber.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Fri Jul 26, 2013 10:55 am 
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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Fri Jul 26, 2013 11:58 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
You're the one that had to manipulate a quote to get it to mean something different. My opinions and statements have not changed once.

You are wrong. Own it.
He did the same a few different times with me during the whole Chris Sale debate last week.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Fri Jul 26, 2013 12:25 pm 
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I guess both you dipshits misquoted yourselves in your own posts.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Fri Jul 26, 2013 12:29 pm 
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Nope. Try again, old timer.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Fri Jul 26, 2013 1:42 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Fri Jul 26, 2013 1:44 pm 
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Appropriate you show a guy getting 2 strikeouts while giving up 5 runs. Maybe the Mets win 6-5 and the guy pitches a good game according to Orr.

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