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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Fri Jul 26, 2013 1:48 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Fri Jul 26, 2013 1:58 pm 
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Elmhurst Steve wrote:
39-59 Did you ever expect them to be this bad? I expected them to finish in 3rd behind the Tigers and Indians, but not in last place and 20 games under .500 on the 25th of July. I predicted Peavy would get hurt and spend a month or more on the DL, that was easy enough, the guy had spent over a month on the DL in 5 of the last 6 seasons. I predicted Sale would not be as good as the strain of too many innings (120 additional over the season before) would have diminished his level of performance (which should be MORE of a problem in the next 2 months) and I predicted that Flowers would be a big flop, as he had struck out in 41% of his at bats the season before. Thinking he would be a good replacement for A.J. was foolish. But 20 games under?? Didn't think it would be this bad.


They are still not as bad as your call about the 'penalty play'. Brutal. Did the shame you felt from that terrible call, cause you to call in today under a different name?

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sat Jul 27, 2013 8:49 pm 
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Another bad game by Sale.

All those innings last year are catching up to him.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sat Jul 27, 2013 9:50 pm 
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Terry's Peeps wrote:
Another bad game by Sale.

All those innings last year are catching up to him.



I don't think the innings sre bothering him, he just didn't pitch as well as another lesser guy.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sat Jul 27, 2013 10:39 pm 
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That's stupid. If I had asked you at 5:30 tonight if you wanted Sale vs. the KC offense or Wade Davis vs. the Sox, what would you have said?

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sat Jul 27, 2013 11:36 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
I will take Sale on my team vs 29 of 29 other teams.

You're the one who thinks he is having a bad season. Not me.

If I'm a GM, I avoid any and all of the White Sox position players. They lost tonight's game. They've lost many games for Sale.


I'll take him on my team too. That has nothing to do with him having a bad season. Maybe Chus can confirm this, but I believe Sale was a -170 favorite tonight. That means he's supposed to win the game. He pitched well, just not well enough to win. The "anemic Sox offense" has scored 18 runs less than Kansas City. That's .18 runs per game. Davis just outpitched Sale tonight. I'm sorry you're upset about it.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sat Jul 27, 2013 11:37 pm 
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Kenny must be getting excited. They currently are slotted for the #3 overall pick. He'll have his choice of one helluva athlete!

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 12:16 am 
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Keeping Score wrote:
I'm not really a gambling man, but wouldn't that be the Sox were the ones who were a -170 favorite and not just Sale?


How is that possible with such an anemic offense? It had to be Sale, didn't it?

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 7:18 am 
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Keeping Score wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Keeping Score wrote:
I'm not really a gambling man, but wouldn't that be the Sox were the ones who were a -170 favorite and not just Sale?


How is that possible with such an anemic offense? It had to be Sale, didn't it?


We're gonna need to ask Chus. I have enough things going on that make me look like a dumbass, I don't need this thread being yet another.


Yeah, the line is for the Sox, but Sale and Davis are affecting it more than anyone else. In fact, when that line is made, I believe the only two guys we could be reasonably sure were going to be in the game, were the two starting pitchers.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 8:55 am 
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To be fair, as bad as Sale's record may be (6-10), his ERA is now a sparkling 2.69, lower than last year's 3.05. His walks to strikeouts ratio is better. His WHIP is just 1.01, also better. But in the end, more often than not, it's been just good enough to lose. Sure the team behind him is a poor one, but that isn't an excuse a great pitcher makes. In 1972 Steve Carlton went 27-10 (with a 1.97 ERA) on a Phillies team that went 59-97. Carlton could have whined about how bad his team was. Instead he just dominated most games he started and won the Cy Young award. On a good team he would have easily won 30 that season. That's an exceptional example of a really great pitcher on a really bad team overcoming adversity. I guess Sale isn't quite up to such a standard though. But he's good enough to say that if he were on a good team, his record might be a good one.....okay.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:15 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
http://www.reclinergm.com/phillies-top-20-individual-seasons1-steve-carlton-1972/

Quote:
The offense did not play like as 59-win offense when Carlton was pitching. He actually got decent run support (3.8 runs per game). By comparison, Cole Hamels got 3.6 runs per game this year for a 97-win team this year. Felix Hernandez got 3.0 runs per game this season.
When Carlton didn’t pitch, they scored only 3.0 runs per game a 21% drop from when he did. It might not seem like a lot, but if you think about Felix Hernandez and the historically bad Seattle offense, it gives you an idea how bad that is.
Add that 3.0 runs per game to some pretty bad starting pitching, and the Phillies lost the vast majority of the games he didn’t pitch, leading to the horrible overall record.
When the team scored 0-2 runs, Carlton had just a 9-7 record. When they scored 3-5, he was 13-3. Carlton was going to pitch 8-9 innings, and allow 1-2 runs every game, it was up to the offense whether that meant he got a win or not.
It’s also fluky because he never won more than 24 games for the rest of his career, even when pitching with explosive Phillies’ offenses.


He won 3 more Cy Young awards, and winning 24 games is pretty impressive. When you point out that he was 9-7 in games where his team scored 0-2 runs, it makes the argument that he was several levels above a guy who has gone 6-10 overall, not just in games that his team scored 0-2 runs. Look up Sale's record in those games only and get back to me Champ....

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Last edited by Elmhurst Steve on Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:18 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:24 am 
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Do you realize that Sale has now lost in 8 of his last 9 decisions?? Of course, that includes losses to such Powerhouse teams as the Royals, Astros and the Twins.....Easy to see how he might struggle in those games to win. :wink:

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:29 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Elmhurst Steve wrote:
Do you realize that Sale has now lost in 8 of his last 9 decisions?? Of course, that includes losses to such Powerhouse teams as the Royals, Astros and the Twins.....Easy to see how he might struggle in those games to win. :wink:

I am aware of it... MLB Quick Pitch had an entire segment about it this morning...and stressed that it was of no fault of Chris Sale.

I don't think even JORR would say Chris Sale has "struggled" this season. Now you're just spewing garbage.


I said he struggled TO WIN in those games. As much as he lost 8 of 9 of them, I would say it was appropriate.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:46 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
No, he didn't struggle to win them. He did his job. 1 ER over 9 innings.


No- he gave up 4 earned runs in 5 innings pitched against the Twins, 4 earned runs against the A's in 7 1/3 innings and in 3 of the other starts (included in the 1-8 run) he gave up 3 runs. You can't just take a start or two and say he did his job and didn't struggle to win, when the fact is he has struggled to win in those 9 decisions. He only won 1 of them. But you go ahead and cling to the last start where he only gave up 1 run in a complete game. No need to let facts get in the way of your argument.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:54 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
immessedup17 wrote:
I will take Sale on my team vs 29 of 29 other teams.

You're the one who thinks he is having a bad season. Not me.

If I'm a GM, I avoid any and all of the White Sox position players. They lost tonight's game. They've lost many games for Sale.


I'll take him on my team too. That has nothing to do with him having a bad season. Maybe Chus can confirm this, but I believe Sale was a -170 favorite tonight. That means he's supposed to win the game. He pitched well, just not well enough to win. The "anemic Sox offense" has scored 18 runs less than Kansas City. That's .18 runs per game. Davis just outpitched Sale tonight. I'm sorry you're upset about it.


The Sox opened at -160 last night. Action on the Sox brought the number as high as -170 or -175, but the number was bet down to -160 at first pitch.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:55 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
JORR - let's make it simple.

If before every game I could promise you your pitcher will throw a CG with only 1 ER would you take it?



Of course, but that's not the way the game is played. Performance is relative to the context of the game.

I think people have to readjust the way they view the game, as some condition has caused offense to return much closer to historical norms after a bubble of about 20 seasons. Most people think it's because PED usage has been reduced. I don't believe that to be the case. I suspect there have been changes made to the ball so that MLB can say, "See! They aren't juicing anymore!"

For example, in about 100 of the approximately 125 years of baseball, there were less than a handful of shortstops with the offensive production of Ernie Banks. Ernie was a special player. In the past twenty-five years there have been seasons where almost every team had a shortstop who produced like Ernie. Coincidentally, those seasons just happen to coincide with your entire life.

Just last night there were seven shutouts and seven one-run games. In light of that, Chris Sale's performance isn't quite as impressive, is it?

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 10:07 am 
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Chus wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
immessedup17 wrote:
I will take Sale on my team vs 29 of 29 other teams.

You're the one who thinks he is having a bad season. Not me.

If I'm a GM, I avoid any and all of the White Sox position players. They lost tonight's game. They've lost many games for Sale.


I'll take him on my team too. That has nothing to do with him having a bad season. Maybe Chus can confirm this, but I believe Sale was a -170 favorite tonight. That means he's supposed to win the game. He pitched well, just not well enough to win. The "anemic Sox offense" has scored 18 runs less than Kansas City. That's .18 runs per game. Davis just outpitched Sale tonight. I'm sorry you're upset about it.


The Sox opened at -160 last night. Action on the Sox brought the number as high as -170 or -175, but the number was bet down to -160 at first pitch.


Oddsmakers have given us a line of -170 that Steve's next call will be an absolute train wreck. I just bet my house and the kids' college funds on YES.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 1:40 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Elmhurst Steve wrote:
immessedup17 wrote:
No, he didn't struggle to win them. He did his job. 1 ER over 9 innings.


No- he gave up 4 earned runs in 5 innings pitched against the Twins, 4 earned runs against the A's in 7 1/3 innings and in 3 of the other starts (included in the 1-8 run) he gave up 3 runs. You can't just take a start or two and say he did his job and didn't struggle to win, when the fact is he has struggled to win in those 9 decisions. He only won 1 of them. But you go ahead and cling to the last start where he only gave up 1 run in a complete game. No need to let facts get in the way of your argument.

Every great pitcher has bad games. To have the numbers he has AND have had those bad outings...it tells you he is having a great overall year.

He has a sub 3.00 ERA in that 9 start stretch you're referring to.

He should be 6-3.


23 runs in 73 innings, so yes, just under a 3.00 ERA. But again, you look at Carlton's numbers (1.97 ERA) and you see what a truly exceptional starter does. Sale is very good. I'm not saying that he's a bad pitcher. I think he's quite good. But he's not good enough to overcome the handicap that comes with pitching for a lousy team like a guy like Carlton could. Carlton got good run support on a horrific team (59-97) because every time he started a game, his team knew he was going to dominate the competition and they were able to relax and they produced better than in other games, where the offense pressed. But even in games where they scored 0-2 runs for him he had a winning (9-7) record! Again, Sale is a very good pitcher, but he's not the kind of guy that can win regularly on a bad team. Great pitchers are able to overcome the challenge and win more often than they lose. Sale is 6-10.

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Last edited by Elmhurst Steve on Sun Jul 28, 2013 1:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 5:39 pm 
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JORR...

is this a bit?

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:27 pm 
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Darkside wrote:
JORR...

is this a bit?


What do you mean? I think I've offered many good explanations for why I believe a pitcher pitches the game he is actually in rather than some other theoretical game where his team scores more runs.

There isn't one person on this board who thought up the concept that a starter's winning percentage is meaningless. It's just something they read, accepted, and repeated.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:27 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Darkside wrote:
JORR...

is this a bit?


What do you mean? I think I've offered many good explanations for why I believe a pitcher pitches the game he is actually in rather than some other theoretical game where his team scores more runs.

There isn't one person on this board who thought up the concept that a starter's winning percentage is meaningless. It's just something they read, accepted, and repeated.

Ok thank you.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:38 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

There isn't one person on this board who thought up the concept that a starter's winning percentage is meaningless. It's just something they read, accepted, and repeated.

What does this even mean?

They didn't author the idea thast win loss can be a misleading stat?

Are you saying you invented the idea that wins matter?


You may disagree but people have laid out their case and it makes as most sense as yours

Its coming off like you believe you and your baseball opinions are on a higher level

I'm sure that's not the case but that's how its coming off


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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:40 pm 
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Nobody authored the concept of gravity either but we all read about it, accepted it and repeated it.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:55 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

There isn't one person on this board who thought up the concept that a starter's winning percentage is meaningless. It's just something they read, accepted, and repeated.

What does this even mean?

They didn't author the idea thast win loss can be a misleading stat?

Are you saying you invented the idea that wins matter?


You may disagree but people have laid out their case and it makes as most sense as yours

Its coming off like you believe you and your baseball opinions are on a higher level

I'm sure that's not the case but that's how its coming off



No. A starter's winning percentage has always mattered. It mattered long before I was born. It's simply become fashionable to state authoritatively that it isn't important and doesn't matter.

Winning percentage is a fact. What is "misleading" about a fact?

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 10:00 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Its coming off like you believe you and your baseball opinions are on a higher level


A higher level than who? People who tell me WHIP is the most important stat while insisting the guy with the 274th best WHIP is one of the ten best pitchers of all-time? Yeah, I'd say I'm on a higher level.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 10:02 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Everyone see Corbin's line today? He was so so bad.


Are you willfully ignorant of Ross' line?

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 10:09 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Its coming off like you believe you and your baseball opinions are on a higher level


A higher level than who? People who tell me WHIP is the most important stat while insisting the guy with the 274th best WHIP is one of the ten best pitchers of all-time? Yeah, I'd say I'm on a higher level.

I said more important, not most. As I've said six times now, no stat can be used exclusively. Not one.

Are you having trouble comprehending the six ways I've made that same statement.

Tool.


So let me get this straight. If it's "more important" doesn't that suggest that it should better reflect the performance of the individuals in question? What do you think is a better representation of the respective values of Nolan Ryan and Rudy May, their winning percentages or their WHIP? Tool.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 10:10 pm 
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And while you're at it, please explain why you think Tyson Ross deserved to lose today.

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 10:14 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
WHIP is more important. It is based on what a pitcher can control. W-L is not as much as it is.


Is it harder for a pitcher to "control" hits and walks in Colorado than it is in Los Angeles?

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 Post subject: Re: 20 games under .500
PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 10:14 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
What do you mean? I think I've offered many good explanations for why I believe a pitcher pitches the game he is actually in rather than some other theoretical game where his team scores more runs.

There isn't one person on this board who thought up the concept that a starter's winning percentage is meaningless. It's just something they read, accepted, and repeated.


I can't speak for the fine members of our community, but are you saying that it's unthinkable for someone to, with the minimal amount of guidance, arrive at the conclusion that you can give up five over six and win but give up one over eight and lose, and so it's not the most reliable statistic? I mean, I don't think it took some central authority for people to say that RBIs are largely a function of men on base other than yourself.

I don't think wins are entirely meaningless, as the fundamental objective of a game is to pitch better than the opponent does, but it shouldn't play a large role in assessing what a pitcher has done.

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