If you frame it like that the answer is no, but that is true for just about any individual statistic so I don't really know why it is relevant.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

That's not true for touchdowns or QB rating?

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I wouldn't feel confident in either for one game. What if it was 1 touchdown to 0? Who won? I have no idea. What if the QB rating was off by 3 points? Who won? I have no idea.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

5/10 of those QBs on the yardage top 10 list, including the top 3, didn't make the playoffs last year.

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Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY

I don't think it's a perfect stat. It just means a lot more than you are willing to admit.

Call me crazy, but even though his team didn't make the playoffs, I think Drew Brees had a really good season.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I think his season was was more of a mixed bag than the stats imply. Yards have to be contextualized. You did acknowledge that it's not a perfect stat, but even then I think you're overrating yards as an indication of a successful season, or of a potent QB.

As for Brees, yes he threw for a ton of yards, but he also led the league in interceptions. The Saints trailed a lot last year, so he amassed over 5,000 yards trying to catch other up. Of course in other seasons he's put up similar numbers while building and extending leads, but not last year. Given the greater context within which Brees put up this numbers in 2012, I'd argue that his yardage total was rather unimpressive since much of it consisted of garbage time TDs.

Now to be fair, Brady is in that top 10 list as well, and his team led the league in scoring while making the playoffs. I think the disparity between the seasons of Brady and Brees demonstrates that yardage cannot be used as an independent measure of success.

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Successful calls:

Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY

Well put, Vegan.

I would only be willing to admit the following: given a large sample size, such as an entire season, I would probably take a QB with large yardage totals over one with smal yardage totals. Even that is imperfect, but I would probably concede that point.

However, within a smaller sample size such as a game, I would be willing to bet that there is no correlation between wins and yardage. And the original question was in regards to 400 vs 300 yards. Without additional data within the context of a small sample size, I would suggest that you are putting too much emphasis on yardage, Rick.

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I don't think anyone would argue that combining stats doesn't give you a better measuring stick but you seemed to say that yardage was pretty much worthless in this thread. In general, I'd be much more willing to roll with a QB who can put up high yardage numbers than those who can't or don't. Total touchdowns and td/int ratio is probably a better stat but it doesn't mean others aren't useful too.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

To be exact, I said it means little and is largely circumstantial. I still believe this to be true.

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http://www.footballperspective.com/corr ... with-wins/

Here is an article that shows the actual correlation of various passing stats and wins. The correlation between wins and adjusted net yards per attempt, passer rating, net yards per attempt, touchdowns per attempt, yards per attempt, completion percentage, interceptions per attempt, and sack rate are all more correlated with wins than passing yards. The only statistic that is less correlated is passing attempts, and the correlation difference between passing attempts and passing yards with wins is negligible.

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First of all, it's time for the standard "correlation does not equal causation".

Also, the discussion has always been about how well someone is playing when they are throwing for a lot of yards. You can play really well and lose. You can play really poorly and win. I'll take my chances with a QB who can throw for 400 yards if he needs to or is capable of it. It's worked pretty well for Green Bay and New Orleans and New England and Colts/Broncos.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Bernstein would be proud.

In this case, correlation does equal causation; I don't think anyone would argue that throwing for more touchdown passes or less interceptions is a good indicator of success and that the results would be causal.

I'm not sure what the argument is anymore. Passing yards are a poor overall indicator of performance and only work in context with other statistics. There are much better indicators. I'm out.

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Agreed.



But anyone can throw for 400 yards, I don't think that means a whole lot. What does 400 mean? Was much of it amassed while building a lead, while catching up, or what? It can go either way. And 400 seems kind of arbitrary. The Bears were down against the Vikings and Bengals, and Cutler threw in the high 200s to bring the Bears back in both games. Turns out his yardage was sufficient to win the game. What would an extra 200 empty yards spread out over the game done in any case?

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Successful calls:

Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY

There are many factors that could cause a team with a lot of passing yards to lose though. It could be an ineffective running game. It could be poor time possession. It could be your are outmatched and you have to hope you can outscore them. Still, when you have a quarterback, and you want him to do his job well, you would prefer he throws for a lot of yards. Now, maybe you gameplan for an alternative style, and you can probably win with a game manager, but if you have Peyton Manning or Drew Brees you don't tone down the offense because across the whole league you see less of a correlation with wins than with other statistics. Would the Saints be better if Brees went for 250 yards a game? Would the Colts be better if Peyton only threw passes less than 10 yards? I doubt it. Of course if you throw a bunch of interceptions then the yards matter less.
All qb statistics only work in the context of other statistics. That is what the link you posted proved. They combined statistics to get a better correlation to wins. You can't look at any statistic without context of others.
That is true. Touchdowns and td/int ratio matter more. That doesn't mean yards are of little use.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Just let me get the last post, Rick.

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The Bears would be significantly better with a higher powered offense that expects to throw for 350 yards in a game. That's why they fired Lovie. His offense "won" but wasn't good enough.

You just have to look up north to Green Bay. Do you really think they are concerned that Aaron Rodgers throws for too many yards? Maybe he should work on his yard per attempt which correlates more with winning! Then he can be better than Cam Newton and RGIII!

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Last post.

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He does both. He does in fact have a high yards per attempt.

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Never said teams should be "concerned" that their own QBs are throwing for "too many" yards. And again you yourself said you can throw for 350 and still lose. The goal shouldn't be yards, it is TDs, and however little or many passing yards picked up along the way are incidental to the ultimate goal.

_________________
Successful calls:

Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY

Not in 2012.

It's too early in this season to use stats like that.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Last post.

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Horrible day for Romo. Only threw for 210.

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This is what happens when defenses cannot hit receivers anymore.

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"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014

Big Ben threw for 404 on Sunday night.

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@ this thread.

Rick, having flashbacks to Last Word FavreFan?

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Fare you well, fare you well
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Seems like Bears fans are with Cutler too.

Right...Bears fans should definitely expect better from the QB of a 31-12 team over the past three years when he's started.

Come on, man...you can't be serious?

_________________
Successful calls:

Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY