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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:36 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
immessedup17 wrote:
Curious Hair wrote:
That's it. I've seen enough. No more of this playing-not-to-win shit. It doesn't work here and it might not even work anymore with the new rules. Just sign major leaguers who can make this team semi-respectable again. Whatever they're trying, it's not working. I don't have the patience to wait another five years for it to maybe get better. JUST MAKE IT STOP, PLEASE.

You sound...not intelligent with this post. This is something whistler would have posted.


You're a big Cub fan. Are you really saying that's an unreasonable viewpoint?

Yes. Very.

First of all...you're already 2 years deep into Theo's plan...a plan that was agreed upon by the entire organization before he was officially brought on. This is the plan that caused Theo and Jed to come on board. Why would you just abandon the great strides the organization has taken? A sustained influx of players coming to the bigs from the minors helps keep an organization strong for a long period of time. Focusing on free agents give you 2007 and 2008. How did that work out?

I don't want a couple of 85-90 win seasons and maybe a wild card appearance or two. The other clubs in the NL Central are stacked...they have excellent organizations. You can't overpay a Robinson Cano or two and expect to win consistently.

I want to compete every year. And this is how you do it - a full rebuild.

Have you never heard of sacrifice or patience?


It's just not as easy as that. A couple 85-90 wins seasons is good. For most teams (pretty much every one except the Yankees) history doesn't support the thing you're wanting. Even the Cardinals, who I suppose might be your model, yeah, they've had a good run for about twelve or thirteen seasons, but the previous twelve or thirteen they were less than mediocre. You have to try to win whenever you can.

I do agree with you about the commitment to "Theo's plan". The thing is, this hiring of Epstein wasn't the typical hiring of a general manager. It was Ricketts' manifesto on how a team "should be built". Normally, shit isn't working, the guy gets bounced. This Theo thing is deeper than that. It's an all-around philosophy. That being the case, I think things would have to go really bad before Theo got the axe. But what I do think could happen is that Theo could be put in a position where he is forced to sacrifice Hoyer and assume the GM duties in name as well as in practice.

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:37 am 
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Northside_Dan wrote:
I fully expect if/when the Sox blow next year you are leading the charge for against Rick Hahn and whatever form of plan he's using.


I don't think anyone will need to lead such a charge. He'll likely be gone without some drastic improvement. That's usually the way it goes.

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:37 am 
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IMU, 84 wins might get you into the play in WC. We've seen 86 or 88 wins end up netting a division title, all very recently.

I do not think its wrong to expect a vast improvement considering the Cubs have lost almost 300 games over the course of the last 3 seasons.

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:39 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Northside_Dan wrote:
I fully expect if/when the Sox blow next year you are leading the charge for against Rick Hahn and whatever form of plan he's using.


I don't think anyone will need to lead such a charge. He'll likely be gone without some drastic improvement. That's usually the way it goes.


I don't think so. He'll get a 3rd year regardless of what happens.

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:42 am 
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Northside_Dan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Northside_Dan wrote:
I fully expect if/when the Sox blow next year you are leading the charge for against Rick Hahn and whatever form of plan he's using.


I don't think anyone will need to lead such a charge. He'll likely be gone without some drastic improvement. That's usually the way it goes.


I don't think so. He'll get a 3rd year regardless of what happens.


Possibly. He's been there a long time and Reinsdorf is known for foolish loyalty. But I would say that if that's the case, his leash will be very short in that next season. And I can't imagine how many empty seats will be in that park.

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:44 am 
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Northside_Dan wrote:
I fully expect if/when the Sox blow next year you are leading the charge for against Rick Hahn and whatever form of plan he's using.
If that plan is intentional losing with a payroll well below market while the team is the most profitable in baseball you better believe JORR and every other White Sox fan should be leading that charge.

The thing about the Cubs plan is that it likely isn't real. At some point, once Ricketts decides he is done extracting money from the Cubs by an artificially low payroll they will outspend the others in the division as a big market team should do. Yeah, the building of the farm system is good but it's not like you have to choose between paying what you expect a team like the Cubs to spend and building your farm system.

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:45 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Northside_Dan wrote:
I fully expect if/when the Sox blow next year you are leading the charge for against Rick Hahn and whatever form of plan he's using.


I don't think anyone will need to lead such a charge. He'll likely be gone without some drastic improvement. That's usually the way it goes.

No chance. They'll pin it on the hitting coach.


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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:47 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
The thing about the Cubs plan is that it likely isn't real. At some point, once Ricketts decides he is done extracting money from the Cubs by an artificially low payroll they will outspend the others in the division as a big market team should do. Yeah, the building of the farm system is good but it's not like you have to choose between paying what you expect a team like the Cubs to spend and building your farm system.


I really don't think the Cubs have committed to building a farm system other than proclaiming "we are building a farm system." There's no evidence that they've worked on the day-to-day work of developing players according to a comprehensive organizational philosophy. If it were easy, everyone would do it.

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:51 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
At some point, once Ricketts decides he is done extracting money from the Cubs by an artificially low payroll they will outspend the others in the division as a big market team should do. .


I don't believe Ricketts is just reaping in the profits from the Cubs. He bought the team for more than he wanted, the renovations aren't going anywhere near as fast as I'm sure his finance guys predicted, he hasn't had a big TV deal spike like other teams have had and the team has sucked to high hell so gate and concession revenue isn't what it was prior to him buying the team.

I think right now he's at best a mid market type owner who desperately needs the renovation/TV deals to pan out but also Theo's plan to improve the onfield product. Only then will he be able to make the type of payroll investments a lot of us expected when he purchased the team.

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:57 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
No, that's actually a pretty informed view.

You cant rebuild forever.

He's right to site the rule changes and he's right to expect a better team.

Not Whistler like at all


Which is why the Cubs approached international free agency like they did this past season. That was the blitzkreig at the sacrifice of their signing strength in the near future. They aren't aiming at 16-19 year old kids for the next several years like they did the past couple. I can guarantee you over the next year or so, most acquisitions will be aimed at nearly major league ready talent. The minor leagues are now stockpiled with prospects...think about how many fans have a reason to be excited about. If even a third of them become decent or better major league players for the Cubs...the 2015 Cubs are looking good. Can't you put up with a 74 win 2014 for the chance to compete for a chance at the playoffs yearly for following half decade plus?

If you're fine with 84 win seasons, that's cool. I'm not.



More than anything I'm pleased with what they have done with the pitching in the minors. In this year's draft they were pulling a lot of strong armed high floor guys that could see time in the majors soon. I think they expect a pretty large crop of ML talent by the 2015 season. And once these near ready prospects are up is when you will see the acquisition of major league talent. I expect them to begin flipping 2 or 3 prospects at a time for real talent that is beginning to get expensive.

I still think they are doing it the right way.

Option 1 - develop your own

Option 2 - trade quantity/quality of prospects for established talent






Option 3 - free agency.


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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:00 am 
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Northside_Dan wrote:
I don't believe Ricketts is just reaping in the profits from the Cubs. He bought the team for more than he wanted, the renovations aren't going anywhere near as fast as I'm sure his finance guys predicted, he hasn't had a big TV deal spike like other teams have had and the team has sucked to high hell so gate and concession revenue isn't what it was prior to him buying the team.
That is just accounting. It's like saying I'm not making money because I'm putting it into a house payment. They were still the most profitable team in baseball for at least a year and they still are quite profitable.
Northside_Dan wrote:
I think right now he's at best a mid market type owner who desperately needs the renovation/TV deals to pan out but also Theo's plan to improve the onfield product. Only then will he be able to make the type of payroll investments a lot of us expected when he purchased the team.
He could make the investment today if he wanted. He is choosing not to for a bigger payday down the line.

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:04 am 
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It's been a whole two seasons since the Cubs finally got rid of Jim Tallon, and some are ready to usher EpHoyer out already? Wow.

Again, I never thought for a second when they hired Sveum that he was their long-term guy - he was a stopgap while they started cleaning up the mess Hendry left them. Has everything gone 100% their way so far? No, but anyone who expected them to be contenders at this point is delusional.

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:06 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
That is just accounting. It's like saying I'm not making money because I'm putting it into a house payment. They were still the most profitable team in baseball for at least a year and they still are quite profitable.


Where is this information? My work filters are weird and having trouble finding this.


Boilermaker Rick wrote:
]He could make the investment today if he wanted. He is choosing not to for a bigger payday down the line.


Same as above. This is just speculation for now.

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:15 am 
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Northside_Dan wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
That is just accounting. It's like saying I'm not making money because I'm putting it into a house payment. They were still the most profitable team in baseball for at least a year and they still are quite profitable.


Where is this information? My work filters are weird and having trouble finding this.
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2013/03/27/forbes-rates-cubs-most-profitable-team-in-baseball/
Northside_Dan wrote:
Same as above. This is just speculation for now.
They had an operating income of $32 million in 2012.

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:21 am 
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I know that sounds like a big number that he's just putting in his pocket and I can't argue he's not with what information is public.

I think, and would like to believe, that a large amount of that money for 2012 was set aside in a Wrigley renovation account.

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:29 am 
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Northside_Dan wrote:
I think, and would like to believe, that a large amount of that money for 2012 was set aside in a Wrigley renovation account.
Even if that is true it is still him taking the profits of the artificially low payroll. He's just investing in something that will make him more money rather than keeping it in his bank account.

When he sells the Cubs he'll get that money back and then some. He may even get a return on his investment based on the increased revenue the renovations will provide. To put it another way, the Cubs are keeping an artificially low payroll and using it to build a hotel.

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:32 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
First, the seven year contracts followed by the regression of Rizzo and Castro and now the firing of Theo's handpicked manager. Is this the beginning of the end for TheoandJed?


It's always funny when a stereotype (hating a team more than liking your own) is confirmed over and over and over.
Move on the Cubs don't want to date you.

Other usual stalkers responses in 3...2.....1...... ah there they are.

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:45 am 
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JORR is hard on the Cubs, but I truly think he likes the Sox more than he hates the Cubs, which is more than I can say for other posters here.

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:53 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
]They had an operating income of $32 million in 2012.


That's fairly meaningless. They have huge debt and capital expenditure outlays planned. I'm sure they are cash-flow poor.

I think Dan had it spot-on. Ricketts can't afford to invest in both the major and minor league product the way a big market team/owner should. They are the A's.

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:00 am 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
]They had an operating income of $32 million in 2012.


That's fairly meaningless. They have huge debt and capital expenditure outlays planned. I'm sure they are cash-flow poor.

I think Dan had it spot-on. Ricketts can't afford to invest in both the major and minor league product the way a big market team/owner should. They are the A's.
That was their choice though. They are still keeping an artificially low payroll in order to make a big profit. It may be to pay down debt. However, it seems like it they are using it to build a hotel to make even more money.

You can do the accounting to fit however you want but the Ricketts are likely going to get the $32 million in artificially low payroll back and then some with how they are using it.

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:04 am 
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Is that a bad thing? Say that 32 million went straight into major league payroll. To what end? Maybe close to a .500 record and another 100k through the turnstyles?

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:15 am 
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Northside_Dan wrote:
Is that a bad thing? Say that 32 million went straight into major league payroll. To what end? Maybe close to a .500 record and another 100k through the turnstyles?
Normally, we'd have names for an owner who is keeping payroll artificially low to extract profit. In this case, it is considered a good thing because it is helping fund renovations designed to extract more profit.

It's up to the fan to decide if it is a good thing or a bad thing. The only issue is the same logic applies in 2016. Think about how many more hotels that Ricketts could build if they keep on with this strategy?

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:19 am 
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Minooka Meatball wrote:
I never thought for a second when they hired Sveum that he was their long-term guy


Can you please explain for those of us who don't know, how we can tell when Theo is lying and when he is telling the truth?

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:21 am 
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Curious Hair wrote:
JORR is hard on the Cubs, but I truly think he likes the Sox more than he hates the Cubs, which is more than I can say for other posters here.


I don't really hate the Cubs at all. But I can understand the Sox fan that does. Imagine if you were dating Brittney Spears and your buddy was dating Kathy Bates but most of the world seemed to believe your buddy had the hotter girlfriend.

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:25 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Curious Hair wrote:
JORR is hard on the Cubs, but I truly think he likes the Sox more than he hates the Cubs, which is more than I can say for other posters here.


I don't really hate the Cubs at all. But I can understand the Sox fan that does. Imagine if you were dating Brittney Spears and your buddy was dating Kathy Bates but most of the world seemed to believe your buddy had the hotter girlfriend.
The "Sox fans hate the Cubs more than they like the Sox" thing is just jealousy that White Sox fans have seen the team win the World Series and Cubs fans have yet to do so. It's the only possible explanation why anyone would think that.

Anyone who honestly thinks that any Sox fan would rather see the Cubs lose the World Series than the White Sox win it is quite frankly an idiot.

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:28 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Curious Hair wrote:
JORR is hard on the Cubs, but I truly think he likes the Sox more than he hates the Cubs, which is more than I can say for other posters here.


I don't really hate the Cubs at all. But I can understand the Sox fan that does. Imagine if you were dating Brittney Spears and your buddy was dating Kathy Bates but most of the world seemed to believe your buddy had the hotter girlfriend.
The "Sox fans hate the Cubs more than they like the Sox" thing is just jealousy that White Sox fans have seen the team win the World Series and Cubs fans have yet to do so. It's the only possible explanation why anyone would think that.

Anyone who honestly thinks that any Sox fan would rather see the Cubs lose the World Series than the White Sox win it is quite frankly an idiot.


I agree, but you have to admit there are plenty of Sox fans that have a chip on their shoulders when it comes to the Cubs. As I said though, it's well earned. You'd think the Cubs were the Yankees the way they are treated.

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:30 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I agree, but you have to admit there are plenty of Sox fans that have a chip on their shoulders when it comes to the Cubs. As I said though, it's well earned. You'd think the Cubs were the Yankees the way they are treated.
Many have a chip on their shoulder no doubt. However, it is still one of the dumbest things ever to think that they dislike the Cubs more than they like the Sox. In 2005, at the parade, I doubt many were saying "This is alright, but 2003 was my greatest baseball memory ever!".

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:30 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
]They had an operating income of $32 million in 2012.


That's fairly meaningless. They have huge debt and capital expenditure outlays planned. I'm sure they are cash-flow poor.

I think Dan had it spot-on. Ricketts can't afford to invest in both the major and minor league product the way a big market team/owner should. They are the A's.
That was their choice though. They are still keeping an artificially low payroll in order to make a big profit. It may be to pay down debt. However, it seems like it they are using it to build a hotel to make even more money.

You can do the accounting to fit however you want but the Ricketts are likely going to get the $32 million in artificially low payroll back and then some with how they are using it.


It's not really a choice if you have to keep expenses down to meet debt service covenants with your financing institutions so you don't go into violation.

Renovations to a crumbling facility aren't much of a choice either. I don't know the specifics of how they are building/financing the hotel but $1 spent on revenue producing assets of a longer-term nature might be a better investment for the organization given the current status of the on-field product. My issue is that they apparently aren't funded enough to do both.

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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:34 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Curious Hair wrote:
JORR is hard on the Cubs, but I truly think he likes the Sox more than he hates the Cubs, which is more than I can say for other posters here.


I don't really hate the Cubs at all. But I can understand the Sox fan that does. Imagine if you were dating Brittney Spears and your buddy was dating Kathy Bates but most of the world seemed to believe your buddy had the hotter girlfriend.

Awful comparison. This is what im talking about with Sox fans thinking they're better than they are.


In this analogy, the Yankees date Brittany Spears and the White Sox get Bonnie Hunt....at BEST


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 Post subject: Re: Breaking Bad
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:34 am 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
$1 spent on revenue producing assets of a longer-term nature might be a better investment for the organization given the current status of the on-field product.


I'm certain you're correct there, but I don't really think a fan should be concerned about the generational wealth of owners who have likely already established trust fund for children not yet born. It's not really something to lead cheers for.

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