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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:30 am 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
So if that was NYG and Pitt's "model" why did they sign them to long term big money deals? Because the "model" is to try to find a good QB.
I don't really understand. There isn't just one "model". You simply look at what is working effectively and try and copy or improve on that. It doesn't mean that others don't work too. I have no problem acknowledging that having a Super Bowl winning quarterback is another "model" for success. That is why NYG and Pitt, and now Baltimore did what they did.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:35 am 
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Nas wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
And both won with veteran QBs on big deals. So, what they hell are we arguing?
The model they used was to go young and try and win with a QB on a rookie deal. It worked pretty well. Other teams are doing it now. It's a lot more successful than keeping an average veteran QB for big money.
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
You have to draft a guy to put him on a rookie deal. What do you do then? Cut him loose? No, you pay him like NYG and Pitt and win more Super Bowls.
No, you keep him of course.
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
If Cutler proves good, you keep him while you start to develop your rookie and develop him into the next big money Super Bowl winning guy.
Proves good? How many years will we give him? At his age, is he suddenly going to become better than above average?


It's not a model.

Playing young, cheap, good QBs is only a model if you cut them once they demand an increase in pay at the end of the rookie deal, and draft a new, young, QB in order to perpetuate the young, inexpensive QB "model."

The atrophied, middling, expensive QBs you speak of were once cheap prospects themselves (Brady, Manning, Manning, Brees), but they've become expensive, older QBs because their teams were interested in the model of finding a good QB, playing him, and then locking him in for the next decade at whatever the cost.


It is a model. Draft pick vs veteran free agent. Draft a young QB and play him while he doesn't cost a lot and build the rest of your team with the savings.


Okay, sure. So what distinguishes the Cleveland model of drafting young QBs (Couch, Weeden, McCoy, et. al) from, say, the Colts "model" of ingeniously picking Andrew Luck? If the model is what is sought, then why have the Browns failed even while following the supposed model?

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:37 am 
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veganfan21 wrote:
Playing young, cheap, good QBs is only a model if you cut them once they demand an increase in pay at the end of the rookie deal, and draft a new, young, QB in order to perpetuate the young, inexpensive QB "model."

The atrophied, middling, expensive QBs you speak of were once cheap prospects themselves (Brady, Manning, Manning, Brees), but they've become expensive, older QBs because their teams were interested in the model of finding a good QB, playing him, and then locking him in for the next decade at whatever the cost.
Once again, there are multiple "models" of winning in the NFL. Going with a rookie QB is definitely a "model". Before, it used to be surprising when a QB played during his rookie year besides injury. Now, it's surprising when he doesn't. Go look at the first round QB picks in the NFL in the past few years and how many of them didn't play during the first year. I doubt there are many. We may see as many as 5 rookies starting at QB next year by the middle of the season. The teams that didn't draft QB's are the only ones who were interested in acquiring veteran QB's.

The NFL is changing. This isn't my original thought. Rookies and second year players play a ton.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:38 am 
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veganfan21 wrote:
Okay, sure. So what distinguishes the Cleveland model of drafting young QBs (Couch, Weeden, McCoy, et. al) from, say, the Colts "model" of ingeniously picking Andrew Luck? If the model is what is sought, then why have the Browns failed even while following the supposed model?


Because no model is Browns proof. Drafting a guy has been proven to be more effective than picking up a free agent. Obviously if Peyton Manning falls into your lap that is different but that doesn't happen often.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:44 am 
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Nas wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
Okay, sure. So what distinguishes the Cleveland model of drafting young QBs (Couch, Weeden, McCoy, et. al) from, say, the Colts "model" of ingeniously picking Andrew Luck? If the model is what is sought, then why have the Browns failed even while following the supposed model?


Because no model is Browns proof. Drafting a guy has been proven to be more effective than picking up a free agent. Obviously if Peyton Manning falls into your lap that is different but that doesn't happen often.


The question forwarded by BRick wasn't a draft vs free agent question. This is really academic, but my point is that playing a QB you picked in the draft isn't a "model," it's just the obvious thing to do when you find out that the QB is actually good. Maybe I'm missing something here if BRick is trying to imply that drafting a QB is better than picking up a FA, in which case I'd agree, but I do not agree with the idea that, since a lot of rookie QBs are having success around the league, therefore the Bears should draft one as well since it seems to be working for everyone else. There's some false correlation there that I can't get behind.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:01 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
The question forwarded by BRick wasn't a draft vs free agent question. This is really academic, but my point is that playing a QB you picked in the draft isn't a "model," it's just the obvious thing to do when you find out that the QB is actually good.
I don't think that is true. I don't think it was the obvious thing to do in Seattle or San Francisco. It seems obvious in hindsight though. Other teams didn't even wait for training camp to cut the veteran. Other teams didn't put an effort in to the veteran QB's on the market. I'll ask you this. If going with the young quarterback is not the new model of the NFL, how many QB's drafted in the first two rounds of next years NFL draft will not start a single game next year?
veganfan21 wrote:
Maybe I'm missing something here if BRick is trying to imply that drafting a QB is better than picking up a FA, in which case I'd agree, but I do not agree with the idea that, since a lot of rookie QBs are having success around the league, therefore the Bears should draft one as well since it seems to be working for everyone else. There's some false correlation there that I can't get behind.
It's working a lot better than keeping an average veteran QB.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:02 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
Nas wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
Okay, sure. So what distinguishes the Cleveland model of drafting young QBs (Couch, Weeden, McCoy, et. al) from, say, the Colts "model" of ingeniously picking Andrew Luck? If the model is what is sought, then why have the Browns failed even while following the supposed model?


Because no model is Browns proof. Drafting a guy has been proven to be more effective than picking up a free agent. Obviously if Peyton Manning falls into your lap that is different but that doesn't happen often.


The question forwarded by BRick wasn't a draft vs free agent question. This is really academic, but my point is that playing a QB you picked in the draft isn't a "model," it's just the obvious thing to do when you find out that the QB is actually good. Maybe I'm missing something here if BRick is trying to imply that drafting a QB is better than picking up a FA, in which case I'd agree, but I do not agree with the idea that, since a lot of rookie QBs are having success around the league, therefore the Bears should draft one as well since it seems to be working for everyone else. There's some false correlation there that I can't get behind.


I think more rookie QB's are better prepared because the college game has evolved into running more pro style offenses.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:07 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
The question forwarded by BRick wasn't a draft vs free agent question. This is really academic, but my point is that playing a QB you picked in the draft isn't a "model," it's just the obvious thing to do when you find out that the QB is actually good.
I don't think that is true. I don't think it was the obvious thing to do in Seattle or San Francisco. It seems obvious in hindsight though. Other teams didn't even wait for training camp to cut the veteran. Other teams didn't put an effort in to the veteran QB's on the market. I'll ask you this. If going with the young quarterback is not the new model of the NFL, how many QB's drafted in the first two rounds of next years NFL draft will not start a single game next year?
veganfan21 wrote:
Maybe I'm missing something here if BRick is trying to imply that drafting a QB is better than picking up a FA, in which case I'd agree, but I do not agree with the idea that, since a lot of rookie QBs are having success around the league, therefore the Bears should draft one as well since it seems to be working for everyone else. There's some false correlation there that I can't get behind.
It's working a lot better than keeping an average veteran QB.


Going with the best QB has always been the model, irrespective of age. Going with a young QB is not a model per se because it ceases to be a model once you find out the QB isn't any good, at which point you rightfully discard the young QB to find someone better, whether they're younger or older. It can only be model if youth and cheap deals were the essential ingredients of the model, but in this case the ultimate factor is talent.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:09 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
Maybe I'm missing something here if BRick is trying to imply that drafting a QB is better than picking up a FA, in which case I'd agree, but I do not agree with the idea that, since a lot of rookie QBs are having success around the league, therefore the Bears should draft one as well since it seems to be working for everyone else. There's some false correlation there that I can't get behind.


It's working a lot better than keeping an average veteran QB.


Are you saying, because Kaep/Wilson/Luck/etc., are having success elsewhere in the league, that the Bears' hypothetical 2014 rookie QB is more likely to be more successful than he would have been prior to the emergence of those QBs?

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:11 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
San Fran has Jim Harbaugh who is a genius and can do no wrong.
Except that it took Alex Smith to get hurt before Kappernik got a start. It was also a perfect storm of a bad Bears defense and a Cutlerless offense for Kap's first NFL start.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:22 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
Going with the best QB has always been the model, irrespective of age. Going with a young QB is not a model per se because it ceases to be a model once you find out the QB isn't any good, at which point you rightfully discard the young QB to find someone better, whether they're younger or older. It can only be model if youth and cheap deals were the essential ingredients of the model, but in this case the ultimate factor is talent.
No. This is false. First round QB's are virtually handed the job from draft day. Of course, we may see a "competition" but ultimately everyone knows who will win. These teams ignore "better" available quarterbacks and in many cases dump veterans.

Once again, how many QB's drafted in the first two rounds of the 2014 draft won't start at least one game if they are healthy? I'd be very surprised if it is more than 1.
veganfan21 wrote:
Are you saying, because Kaep/Wilson/Luck/etc., are having success elsewhere in the league, that the Bears' hypothetical 2014 rookie QB is more likely to be more successful than he would have been prior to the emergence of those QBs?
No, I'm saying that many teams are finding success playing rookies earlier rather than relying on the old school thinking that you have to have a "veteran QB" because you can't compete with a young QB. The NFL is changing. You'll see it in the 2014 NFL draft. There will be a lot of teams using a model that doesn't rely on a veteran QB.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:25 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
I don't think that is true. I don't think it was the obvious thing to do in Seattle or San Francisco. It seems obvious in hindsight though. Other teams didn't even wait for training camp to cut the veteran. Other teams didn't put an effort in to the veteran QB's on the market. I'll ask you this. If going with the young quarterback is not the new model of the NFL, how many QB's drafted in the first two rounds of next years NFL draft will not start a single game next year?


Starting your own draft pick QB is not the obvious thing to do when he shows NFL-ready skills and ability during practices? The whole point of drafting anyone is to eventually have them start for you, and for a very long time.

The only rookie QBs who will start next year are those that show they get it during practices and OTAs. They will be summarily benched if they don't get it, or if they suck, which is pretty much the same thing that will happen to veteran QBs as well. The model, if any, is finding a good QB, and not necessarily young and cheap ones that you can use while enriching yourself in other areas. There are too many variables at play to really make it a model.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:26 pm 
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Kaepernick sat for a year and a half. So, that one counts for us, right?

So, who are these wildly successful teams starting rookie QBs and winning championships?

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:27 pm 
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I thought Trestman was a QB guru. If he is, then why wouldn't they draft a QB high in the 2014 draft? Seems like dumping Cutler and drafting a future QB is the type of cost cutting move the McCaskey's would encourage.


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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:29 pm 
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Also, Tebow had to sit that first year before he led his team to the playoffs.

Never thought I'd see Rick arguing on behalf of going with Tebow.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:30 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
Going with the best QB has always been the model, irrespective of age. Going with a young QB is not a model per se because it ceases to be a model once you find out the QB isn't any good, at which point you rightfully discard the young QB to find someone better, whether they're younger or older. It can only be model if youth and cheap deals were the essential ingredients of the model, but in this case the ultimate factor is talent.
No. This is false. First round QB's are virtually handed the job from draft day. Of course, we may see a "competition" but ultimately everyone knows who will win. These teams ignore "better" available quarterbacks and in many cases dump veterans.



Yes, they are handed jobs since they are first round picks and better options than veterans, and then they are also benched, cut, or traded because they suck, despite being first round picks, young, and cheap. See Josh Freeman for a recent example, or someone like Matt Leinart. It's not a new model or trend or anything really...it's just finding the best guy to do the job.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:30 pm 
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Big Chicagoan wrote:
I thought Trestman was a QB guru. If he is, then why wouldn't they draft a QB high in the 2014 draft? Seems like dumping Cutler and drafting a future QB is the type of cost cutting move the McCaskey's would encourage.


Why the Hell didn't they let him pick one in last years draft?


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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:31 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
Starting your own draft pick QB is not the obvious thing to do when he shows NFL-ready skills and ability during practices? The whole point of drafting anyone is to eventually have them start for you, and for a very long time.
Huh? THAT IS WHY YOU PLAY THEM FROM THE START! :lol: Did you just switch sides or something.


veganfan21 wrote:
The only rookie QBs who will start next year are those that show they get it during practices and OTAs. They will be summarily benched if they don't get it, or if they suck, which is pretty much the same thing that will happen to veteran QBs as well. The model, if any, is finding a good QB, and not necessarily young and cheap ones that you can use while enriching yourself in other areas. There are too many variables at play to really make it a model.
We may approach 50% of the teams in the league starting QB's on rookie deals while veterans sit at home, or hold a clipboard next year. It's clearly a model.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:32 pm 
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Last year's draft sucked for QBs.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:33 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Kaepernick sat for a year and a half. So, that one counts for us, right?

So, who are these wildly successful teams starting rookie QBs and winning championships?
Well, we are talking about rookie deals though it has strayed some.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:34 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
Starting your own draft pick QB is not the obvious thing to do when he shows NFL-ready skills and ability during practices? The whole point of drafting anyone is to eventually have them start for you, and for a very long time.
Huh? THAT IS WHY YOU PLAY THEM FROM THE START! :lol: Did you just switch sides or something.


veganfan21 wrote:
The only rookie QBs who will start next year are those that show they get it during practices and OTAs. They will be summarily benched if they don't get it, or if they suck, which is pretty much the same thing that will happen to veteran QBs as well. The model, if any, is finding a good QB, and not necessarily young and cheap ones that you can use while enriching yourself in other areas. There are too many variables at play to really make it a model.
We may approach 50% of the teams in the league starting QB's on rookie deals while veterans sit at home, or hold a clipboard next year. It's clearly a model.


We've never argued whether good, rookie QBs should start or not. You've said it demonstrates some sort of new-age model of doing things, while I've said teams like Indy and San Fran have benefited from simply doing the obvious thing to do.

And simply repeating "it's clearly a model" doesn't make it so :D

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:35 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
The only rookie QBs who will start next year are those that show they get it during practices and OTAs. They will be summarily benched if they don't get it, or if they suck, which is pretty much the same thing that will happen to veteran QBs as well. The model, if any, is finding a good QB, and not necessarily young and cheap ones that you can use while enriching yourself in other areas. There are too many variables at play to really make it a model.
We may approach 50% of the teams in the league starting QB's on rookie deals while veterans sit at home, or hold a clipboard next year. It's clearly a model.


That's because 10-15 QBs in the league suck. Jay Cutler is not among that group so he's going to have a job. With 6-9 QBs in next year's draft you will see a lot of those guy start playing because they are replacing old draft picks that sucked. Of those 9, 6 of them will suck, 2 will be decent, 1 will great or thereabouts. Then those 6 teams with shitty drafted QBs will go back and draft a bunch more shitty QBs. That is not a model, it's just the nature of the NFL.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:36 pm 
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How many teams sign a veteran QB and win a SB the following season?

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:37 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
Yes, they are handed jobs since they are first round picks and better options than veterans, and then they are also benched, cut, or traded because they suck, despite being first round picks, young, and cheap. See Josh Freeman for a recent example, or someone like Matt Leinart. It's not a new model or trend or anything really...it's just finding the best guy to do the job.
"It doesn't always work" doesn't mean it isn't a model that is finding success.

Again, virtually every first round QB drafted in the past few years has started heavily in year one. Virtually every first round QB drafted next year will.

Oh, but the Bears have the luxury of having so few holes on the team they can pay two quarterbacks!

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:38 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
We've never argued whether good, rookie QBs should start or not. You've said it demonstrates some sort of new-age model of doing things, while I've said teams like Indy and San Fran have benefited from simply doing the obvious thing to do.
Virtually every high draft pick QB starts now. That's why you won't answer the question as to how many first or second round QB's next year won't start next year. Some may not get the start on day one though they all might.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:41 pm 
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Nas wrote:
How many teams sign a veteran QB and win a SB the following season?


Three teams come to mind since 2000:

Rams
Ravens (2000)
Saints


But, again, this is not a rookie vs free agent debate. That doesn't even merit discussion in my opinion.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:42 pm 
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Nas wrote:
How many teams sign a veteran QB and win a SB the following season?


Pittsburgh did it with Roethlisberger. The Chiefs are looking pretty good this year.

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:43 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
That's because 10-15 QBs in the league suck. Jay Cutler is not among that group so he's going to have a job. With 6-9 QBs in next year's draft you will see a lot of those guy start playing because they are replacing old draft picks that sucked. Of those 9, 6 of them will suck, 2 will be decent, 1 will great or thereabouts. Then those 6 teams with shitty drafted QBs will go back and draft a bunch more shitty QBs. That is not a model, it's just the nature of the NFL.
"The nature of the NFL" indicates it is a common practice used for success. How is that not a model?

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:44 pm 
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Last 17 QBs taken in the first round. How many are better than Cutler:

JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Matthew Stafford
Josh Freeman
Mark Sanchez
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Cam Newton
Christian Ponder
Blaine Gabbert
Jake Locker
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin III
Ryan Tannehill
Brandon Weeden

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 Post subject: Re: Cutler out 6-8 weeks
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:44 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
We've never argued whether good, rookie QBs should start or not. You've said it demonstrates some sort of new-age model of doing things, while I've said teams like Indy and San Fran have benefited from simply doing the obvious thing to do.
Virtually every high draft pick QB starts now. That's why you won't answer the question as to how many first or second round QB's next year won't start next year. Some may not get the start on day one though they all might.


I did answer that question above, here it is again:

Quote:
The only rookie QBs who will start next year are those that show they get it during practices and OTAs. They will be summarily benched if they don't get it, or if they suck, which is pretty much the same thing that will happen to veteran QBs as well. The model, if any, is finding a good QB, and not necessarily young and cheap ones that you can use while enriching yourself in other areas. There are too many variables at play to really make it a model.


I don't know what you are trying to prove by saying virtually every high round pick starts now. I've never argued otherwise, and I don't see the point of arguing whether they should or shouldn't. The best guy always rises to the top, whether they're old or young - and that is not a model.

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