Leash and Vegan, you are both reasonable about this, I agree. Let me demonstrate my case by using what I think is the critical game in the argument - the Minnesota game. That's the game that I believe Cutler would have won. That's the game where, on this board and everywhere else, I was told "it wasn't McCown's fault!" and "Trestman lost that game!"
Here's a breakdown of the Bears drives in that game. Mind you, Minnesota has the 31st ranked defense.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playbyplay?gameId=3312010163-and-out, punt
1 first-down, punt
INT, called back due to offsides. Perhaps McCown knew he had a free play. Don't know.
54-yard drive, FG
Punt
58-yard drive, FG
Punt
TD to Jeffery, 60 YAC
TD - pop-fly to Jeffery at the goal-line, very similar to the pass Cutler is being chided for
Punt
Fumble on Bears 19 - Turnover
Punt
Drive starts with :20, ball moves 2 yards, FG miss from 66
McCown fumble, recovered by Bears, punt
24-yard drive, missed FG
That's 7 punts. 7. 2 FGs. Two TD's largely due to Jeffery's abilities.
A turnover deep in Bears territory, and two others that were cancelled.
He was 2 for 10 on 3rd down.
The Bears were never in the red zone. All game. Not once.
McCown was sacked 4 times. I don't think Cutler has any 4 sack games this year. McCown is supposed to be better at evading pressure.
Again, all this against the 31st ranked defense.
How can you tell me "it wasn't McCown's fault!!", given that evidence??
How can you look at that performance, and say you want McCown to start on the road against Cleveland, who has a much better defense than Minnesota? How does this game show the offense moves the ball better with McCown?
McCown's throwing distance is limited. Not just down the field, but to the sidelines. When he has to throw to the sidelines, watch how long it takes for the ball to get there. Trestman has to limit the calls because of this. Other defenses, besides Dallas, can adjust to that.
Cutler had 2 regrettable turnovers yesterday, but still hung 31 points on a pretty decent defense despite them. The Cleveland defense held New England in check all day the week before, until a bad pass-interference call and an onside-kick recovery. And that was against Tom Brady.
I don't believe in momentum or hot hands or grooves. What happened against Dallas was not going to carry over to Cleveland. Cutler gave the Bears the best chance to win that game.
Where am I going wrong?
It may very well be the case that McCown restricts Trestman's playbook because of his limited arm, I'm just not astute enough to sense these things from watching the game. Look, I don't want to go back into each game and pick apart TD throws or long gains or whatnot. Let's just concede all stats: Cutler threw along TD to Jeffery in Cleveland, and McCown did the same against Dallas, end of story. It comes down to results, and so far based on the split records, it would seem the Bears are more or less as likely to win with Cutler as they are with McCown.
That there is minimal difference between the two in terms of results bolsters McCown's case more so than Cutler, because McCown is healthier, was taking starting reps in practice, etc. Therefore it seemed odd to replace him with a gimpy Cutler, in the middle of a playoff race, when the likelihood of winning doesn't chance much, if at all, when he starts. That's how I see it, but obviously Trestman believes winning chances are maximized with Cutler behind center.
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I don't think "haters" like me are all that off about the career of Jay Cutler. I hope he proves me wrong.
