Does anyone (besides dumbass Terry Boers) think Kris Bryant is more likely to be Evan Longoria than Pedro Alvarez?

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

A lot of people really really really like Bryant.

It's easy to like guys who were drafted high. That's why they were drafted high. But in your entire lifetime how many third basemen as good as Longoria have come along? He's tracking to be the best one ever, for God's sake! I just think you have to be realistic. David DeJesus is better than most first round draft choices ever will be and nobody cares that he's gone.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

Yes, unlikely to be Longoria goo but this is what Epstein's actions are asking for. If we're not supposed to have high expectations for current ML roster then I'm having incredibly high expectations of his draft picks. He's sacrificed everything for these guys. History says shaky plan but what can I do? Theo isn't going anywhere with him allowing Tommy to pocket millions.

Hopefully he sucks so you can get more high draft picks
-Bucky Chris

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Disagree.

I mean, I think the expectations should be that some of the draft picks work out, not any specific one. I mean why not Almora instead of Bryant? The idea is to get a bunch and hope a few work out.

Right. It's a numbers game. But I don't think most fans are looking at it like that. I saw, I think it was cp guy, posted a lineup with every one of these guys top to bottom. That's a lineup you'll never see. Maybe Soler will be the centerpiece of a team and Bryant will be like Scott Brosius and Castro will be traded for a pitcher and they'll sign Matt Harvey as a free agent and win with that team in 2019. Who knows?

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

None of you are understanding my point. Look at the quote that I was referring to.


The 'restocking' process is longer and more difficult if you aren't picking at the top. If you want to truly restock like the Cubs have, you don't get highly touted prospects. Simple math.

So like I said, if the Cubs were mediocre, they don't get Bryant, baez, Almora, etc. They get worse players, making more difficult to restock... and even MORE difficult to hit on prospects. This isn't even a defense of "the plan," it's common sense.

As a fan, it's fun to think about all of the prospects hitting. I don't think anyone with half a brain expects them to all hit.

Not necessarily. They might get Michael Wacha.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

They get worse prospects.


You're arguing with me like I think prospects will be as good as they are drafted. Come on, dude. Give me a little benefit of the doubt.

They don't get worse prospects though. The Cardinals have drafted lower than the Cubs consistently and they have better prospects.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

You literally said "They get worse players" if they don't draft as high.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Because they are the best organization in the world, with some of the best scouts and some of the best development. And the Cubs had Jim Hendry and a shitty development system. So yea, I'm not arguing with you.

But drafting higher is definitely better than drafting lower. If the Cardinals were picking where the Cubs have for the last few years, they would be even scarier.


P.S. I know you're just being a dick, so I will probably stop arguing with you soon.

I meant prospects, and I already corrected that.

I have an expectation they all "work out". In the sense they're productive major leaguers or Epstein identifies they're overvalued/overhyped as a prospect and sells high.

I don't think that's realistic. Not sure even the Cardinals have every first rounder turn into a MLBer or trade piece.

Well the Cardinals also are focusing on a major league team. The Cubs only seem to care about the minor league talent. All the eggs are in the minor league basket so they better know what's up.

Just so everyone remembers this in the future: BAEZ IS NOT A THEO DRAFT PICK. I'm not trying to contradict you although you are incorrect.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Really good players are found throughout the draft . The cornerstone of the rebuild is that you have hired the very best professionals who have revamped the minor league system to first identify talent at the highest rate and second to develop that talent. Still, there is some pathological fear about not having a top of the draft pick.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

The other thing about the Cardinals is that they have a developmental system that works in perfect harmony. You can make the most of lower draft picks if you teach them well. Conversely, you can ruin top ones if you take a guy and pull him ten different ways through the minors. It's like an assembly line: it's a great way to build a car, provided your workers know what they're doing and aren't hung over all the time. But just like there can only be so many Albert Pujolses out there, there can only be so many great teachers. I know the Cardinals have a lot of them; I can't ascertain that for the Cubs' system.

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I just think you're overestimating the difference between top 5 picks and top 20 picks.

here is an interesting study on that question. needs to be updated though:

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/20 ... ks_and.php

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Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest