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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 12:16 pm 
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Epstein: Cubs moving in the right direction
President of baseball operations touts talent in system, progress being made
Phil Rogers
By Phil Rogers | Archive
2/17/2014 2:00 A.M. ET
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Cubs unveil new ST complex00:03:46Tom Ricketts and Theo Epstein talk about the Cubs' new Spring Training complex in Mesa, Ariz.
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MESA, Ariz. -- When Theo Epstein first agreed to talk to Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts in the fall of 2011, he knew he would be facing a huge challenge if he left the Red Sox to join the Cubs. But he had a plan to build an organization from the ground floor up, and as he heads toward his third season in Chicago, he remains a believer in the plan and swears that there is light at the end of the tunnel, not the familiar freight train.

Yet the Cubs' president of baseball operations knows only the team's most optimistic fans join him in celebrating the Daytona Cubs' 2013 Florida State League championship. Epstein's personal honeymoon period with fans might be over after 101- and 96-loss seasons at Wrigley Field, but he is convinced they'll view things differently once Javier Baez, Kris Bryant and other prospects start laying the organization's long-term foundation.

Epstein says there is "a tremendous amount of talent'' in the Cubs' system.

"We believe the Cubs are a special organization, that we're all going to be part of building something special,'' he said. "We're all here because we think we're part of something special.''

MLB.com: Where do you see the organization now as opposed to this time two years ago?

Epstein: I think we've made tremendous progress. … The prospects we have have gotten a lot of attention, and they're moving up the ladder. They're exciting, potential impact players. But just the general talent level, the organizational depth, is improving. We just went over all the (bullpen) arms we have in camp. There's no comparison between the quality of the arms now (and in 2012), the candidates to make the team and the depth behind them in Iowa. The people we have in place in this organization -- coaches, scouts -- I believe are impact people. I believe in the processes we have in place. It takes time to turn an organization around. It takes time to build impact talent and the requisite depth, but it's happening.

People in the organization really believe we're on the verge of something special. We understand that we're perceived otherwise, and that's our fault. We've been a last-place club the last couple of years. We're not protesting (the perception), but we have to earn our way into a point where we're championship contenders on an annual basis, and we think we're certainly moving in that direction.

MLB.com: What role will new manager Rick Renteria play?

Epstein: Ultimately to win, be the steward of a winning club, championship clubs. Obviously it's a process. We really trust Ricky to connect with players as human beings, to be on their side, to be consistent, to hold them to high standards and ultimately to get the most out of them. He's a great baseball guy, a great communicator. He's fully invested in what we're doing here. He believes in young players, that you can win with young players. I think he's the right guy to create the environment we need at the big league level, to establish a winning culture.

MLB.com: How significant is it to have a new Spring Training complex and a new academy in the Dominican Republic?

Epstein: The Dominican academy was a nice investment that has paid dividends for us with the edge it has given us signing some young Latin players over the last couple of years. The city of Mesa certainly stepped up for us, allowed us to continue this partnership and gave us a state-of-the-art facility that will also be a competitive advantage for us over the long run. Our players feel they have the best (Spring Training) facility in the business, and it can't help but raise your level of engagement, your work ethic. Walking around, everyone agrees that if you can't get better here, you can't get better anywhere. To have two out of our three facilities to be world class, certainly means a lot. We hope in coming years to finish it off and get the most important one done (in completing the renovation of Wrigley Field).

MLB.com: Most of your top prospects are position players. How do you view the pitching?

Epstein: Our arms are probably a little bit underrated. That said, we need probably twice as many as we have now. I think we've done a nice job through the last couple of Drafts, especially through some trades, of adding to that reserve, but we need to do a lot more. We're going to continue to draft primarily arms going forward; maybe not with the first pick (fourth overall). We'll see how that shakes out, but we're going to keep hitting that (pitching priority).

(But) look at our high-A rotation last year. It started out with a lot of organization guys, not a ton of prospects, and by the end of the year, you had Pierce Johnson, a sandwich pick in the 2012 Draft; C.J. Edwards, (who) we acquired in the (Matt) Garza trade; Ivan Pineyro, (who) we acquired in the (Scott) Hairston trade; and Corey Black, (who) we acquired in the (Alfonso) Soriano trade. That rotation didn't allow an earned run in the postseason and carried Daytona to a Florida State League championship. Pretty much that whole rotation will be at Double-A (Tennessee) this year. That shows the difference in pitching talent from last year to now, which bodes well, but the job clearly has not been finished with respect to our pitching talent and depth.

MLB.com: Is it hard to stay patient?

Epstein: We're all competitive. So you show up for the first day of Spring Training wanting to win. You don't ever plan on anything but grinding your way into contention, into a postseason opportunity. That's what's on your mind day in and day out when you come to the park. But in the front office, you have to also remove yourself from that and look at the big picture, how things evolve over course of several years, five years -- what the payroll and roster is going to look like long term. Being patient isn't hard, but it's not fun.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 12:49 pm 
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I still believe they are headed in he right direction.

New minor league facilities.
Approved changes to Wrigley that will increase revenues.
A highly rated minor league system (up to #4 by Baseball America).
A complete clearing out of all the old, bad contracts.
Supposedly the scouting and development have been improved, but that is tough to tell yet.

The problem is we are on manager #2, and there is very little in the way of talent on the major league roster. For this year, I hope a couple of the top prospects come up and show promise. But more importantly, Rizzo and Castro have to play better.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 12:54 pm 
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heading in the right direction when you bottomed out isn't really an accomplishement

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 12:57 pm 
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bigfan wrote:
heading in the right direction when you bottomed out isn't really an accomplishement


Pretty much by definition, if you bottom out, you are now headed in the right direction, don't you think? The other option is that you bottomed out and are flat lined.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:04 pm 
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The minor league players are moving in the right direction. We'll see about the big league team.

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Last edited by Mini Ditka on Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:05 pm 
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I don't understand the philosophy of not drafting pitching in the 1st round. Yes it's risky but that's where the vast majority of the top pitchers come from. I started working on this a little while back. I'm sure I missed a couple guys but you get the gist. This is about the draft so I left off international signs like Yu Darvish and King Felix.

CC Sabathia: 1-20
Jon Lester: 2nd round
David Price-:1-1
Matt Moore: 8th round
RA Dickey: 1-18
Dylan Bundy: 1-4
Justin Verlander: 1-2
Max Scherzer: 1-11
Chris Sale: 1-13
Justin Masterson: 2nd round
James Shields: 16th round
Jared Weaver: 1-12
Mark Appel: 1-1
Sonny Gray: 1-18
Jarrod Parker: 1-9
Tijuan Walker: 1-43
Cliff Lee: 4th round
Cole Hamels: 1-17
Matt Harvey: 1-7
Zach Wheeler-:1-6
Jose Fernandez: 1-14
Stephen Strasberg: 1-1
Gio Gonzalez: 1-38
Jordan Zimmerman: 2nd round
Adam Wainwright: 1-29
Shelby Miller: 1-19
Gerrit Cole: 1-1
Yovanni Gallardo: 2nd round
Mat Latos: 11th round
Homer Bailey: 1-7
Clayton Kershaw: 1-7
Zach Greinke: 1-6
Matt Cain:1-25
Madison Bumgartner: 1-10
Tim Lincecum: 1-10
Patrick Corbin: 2nd round
Archie Bradley: 1-7
Jonathan Gray: 1-2

I think Cliff Lee is the only one you can say is a bona fide ace that was drafted outside the first round though arguments could be made for Lester and maybe Latos. Where are they going to find their ace? Are they hoping to find one in the later rounds or are they going to make a trade as I do not think that guy is currently in the system nor will he be in the coming free agent market.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:05 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
(But) look at our high-A rotation last year. It started out with a lot of organization guys, not a ton of prospects, and by the end of the year, you had Pierce Johnson, a sandwich pick in the 2012 Draft; C.J. Edwards, (who) we acquired in the (Matt) Garza trade; Ivan Pineyro, (who) we acquired in the (Scott) Hairston trade; and Corey Black, (who) we acquired in the (Alfonso) Soriano trade. That rotation didn't allow an earned run in the postseason and carried Daytona to a Florida State League championship.

Our guys in Single A who likely will never play a day in the majors beat their guys in Single A who likely will never play a day in the majors.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:12 pm 
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Keyser Soze wrote:
I don't understand the philosophy of not drafting pitching in the 1st round. Yes it's risky but that's where the vast majority of the top pitchers come from. I started working on this a little while back. I'm sure I missed a couple guys but you get the gist. This is about the draft so I left off international signs like Yu Darvish and King Felix.

CC Sabathia: 1-20
Jon Lester: 2nd round
David Price-:1-1
Matt Moore: 8th round
RA Dickey: 1-18
Dylan Bundy: 1-4
Justin Verlander: 1-2
Max Scherzer: 1-11
Chris Sale: 1-13
Justin Masterson: 2nd round
James Shields: 16th round
Jared Weaver: 1-12
Mark Appel: 1-1
Sonny Gray: 1-18
Jarrod Parker: 1-9
Tijuan Walker: 1-43
Cliff Lee: 4th round
Cole Hamels: 1-17
Matt Harvey: 1-7
Zach Wheeler-:1-6
Jose Fernandez: 1-14
Stephen Strasberg: 1-1
Gio Gonzalez: 1-38
Jordan Zimmerman: 2nd round
Adam Wainwright: 1-29
Shelby Miller: 1-19
Gerrit Cole: 1-1
Yovanni Gallardo: 2nd round
Mat Latos: 11th round
Homer Bailey: 1-7
Clayton Kershaw: 1-7
Zach Greinke: 1-6
Matt Cain:1-25
Madison Bumgartner: 1-10
Tim Lincecum: 1-10
Patrick Corbin: 2nd round
Archie Bradley: 1-7
Jonathan Gray: 1-2

I think Cliff Lee is the only one you can say is a bona fide ace that was drafted outside the first round though arguments could be made for Lester and maybe Latos. Where are they going to find their ace? Are they hoping to find one in the later rounds or are they going to make a trade as I do not think that guy is currently in the system nor will he be in the coming free agent market.


You might not agree with it, but they have been ultra clear on the fact they will draft pitching later in vast numbers, hoping something sticks. So, I do think you understand it, you might not agree with it.

I am going to guess this years and next years pick, ends up being a pitcher!

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:15 pm 
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Keyser Soze wrote:
I don't understand the philosophy of not drafting pitching in the 1st round.


One of my friends had an entire discussion with Epstein about this at Wood's party or the Cubs Convention. He said Epstein kept telling him he could show him the numbers.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:18 pm 
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time to majors longer for a position player than a 1st round pitching prospect? Draft position players first, then as those players get close, draft 1st round pitchers who need a year or two or three in the minors at most.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:19 pm 
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I think the philosophy is to draft the best player available in the 1st round, no matter what position that is.

If at #4 this year, the best player available is a pitcher, then I would expect them to take him.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:19 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
I don't understand the philosophy of not drafting pitching in the 1st round.


One of my friends had an entire discussion with Epstein about this at Wood's party or the Cubs Convention. He said Epstein kept telling him he could show him the numbers.


One of the guys at work passed this type of analysis around, but I can't recall which stat site printed it. In any case, the evidence was overwhelming that pitchers bust out at a much higher rate than position players.

If I had to guess, the current Cubs brass hopes to hit it big with their excessive stock of infielders and then trade them for pitchers that show promise.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:20 pm 
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Hoyer interview replay coming up on 87.7 next segment.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:24 pm 
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bigfan wrote:
You might not agree with it, but they have been ultra clear on the fact they will draft pitching later in vast numbers, hoping something sticks. So, I do think you understand it, you might not agree with it.

I am going to guess this years and next years pick, ends up being a pitcher!

I don't agree with it or understand it. There's an old saying in baseball: grow the arms and buy the bats. Theo and Co are doing the oppposite.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:28 pm 
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Keyser Soze wrote:
bigfan wrote:
You might not agree with it, but they have been ultra clear on the fact they will draft pitching later in vast numbers, hoping something sticks. So, I do think you understand it, you might not agree with it.

I am going to guess this years and next years pick, ends up being a pitcher!

I don't agree with it or understand it. There's an old saying in baseball: grow the arms and buy the bats. Theo and Co are doing the oppposite.


So you do understand what they are doing "The Opp of growing arms and buying bats" ? but you dont agree with it

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:29 pm 
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Take the best player when possible. The rest works itself out.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:31 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Take the best player when possible. The rest works itself out.

They picked Almora over Appel and Bryant over Gray. We'll see how that works out.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:36 pm 
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Keyser Soze wrote:
I don't agree with it or understand it. There's an old saying in baseball: grow the arms and buy the bats. Theo and Co are doing the oppposite.

They've only had 2 drafts.
2012 1st round: CF, P, P
2013 1st round: 3B

They've traded for prospect pitchers in Vizcaino, Hendricks, Black and Edwards when trading veterans.

They took a chance on Arrieta and Strop when they traded Feldman.

So your narrative just isn't true.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:50 pm 
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Keyser Soze wrote:
I don't understand the philosophy of not drafting pitching in the 1st round. Yes it's risky but that's where the vast majority of the top pitchers come from. I started working on this a little while back. I'm sure I missed a couple guys but you get the gist. This is about the draft so I left off international signs like Yu Darvish and King Felix.

CC Sabathia: 1-20
Jon Lester: 2nd round
David Price-:1-1
Matt Moore: 8th round
RA Dickey: 1-18 not an ace
Dylan Bundy: 1-4 unproven, already had surgery
Justin Verlander: 1-2
Max Scherzer: 1-11 acquired via trade
Chris Sale: 1-13
Justin Masterson: 2nd round acquired via trade
James Shields: 16th round
Jared Weaver: 1-12
Mark Appel: 1-1 unproven
Sonny Gray: 1-18 unproven
Jarrod Parker: 1-9 not an ace
Tijuan Walker: 1-43 unproven
Cliff Lee: 4th round acquired via trade
Cole Hamels: 1-17
Matt Harvey: 1-7 unproven
Zach Wheeler-:1-6 unproven
Jose Fernandez: 1-14
Stephen Strasberg: 1-1
Gio Gonzalez: 1-38 acquired via trade
Jordan Zimmerman: 2nd round
Adam Wainwright: 1-29 acquired via trade
Shelby Miller: 1-19 unproven
Gerrit Cole: 1-1
Yovanni Gallardo: 2nd round past prime?
Mat Latos: 11th round
Homer Bailey: 1-7 not an ace
Clayton Kershaw: 1-7
Zach Greinke: 1-6
Matt Cain:1-25
Madison Bumgartner: 1-10
Tim Lincecum: 1-10
Patrick Corbin: 2nd round
Archie Bradley: 1-7 unproven
Jonathan Gray: 1-2 unproven

I think Cliff Lee is the only one you can say is a bona fide ace that was drafted outside the first round though arguments could be made for Lester and maybe Latos. Where are they going to find their ace? Are they hoping to find one in the later rounds or are they going to make a trade as I do not think that guy is currently in the system nor will he be in the coming free agent market.

A lot of those pitchers are not aces, unproven or acquired via trade. I may be missing some as well. But I get your overall point that the upper tier of aces (Verlander, Kershaw, Lincecum back in the day, Price, Hamels, Sale, Strasburg) are 1st round picks.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:55 pm 
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basic Sabrmetrics that was studied years ago. likely with that knowledge the market inequity might not exist anymore. i'm sure Fraudstein has the data to back it up.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 2:55 pm 
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Keyser Soze wrote:
immessedup17 wrote:
Take the best player when possible. The rest works itself out.

They picked Almora over Appel and Bryant over Gray. We'll see how that works out.

How did picking Appel work out for the Pirates?

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 3:26 pm 
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It worked out great. The Pirates ended up with Austin Meadows and he's better than who they would have drafted instead of Appel.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 3:37 pm 
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Keyser Soze wrote:
It worked out great. The Pirates ended up with Austin Meadows and he's better than who they would have drafted instead of Appel.

I'm fairly sure the Pirates didn't draft Appel in 2012 with the gameplan that their 2013 compensatory pick would be "their real target."

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 3:39 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Take the best player when possible. The rest works itself out.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 3:45 pm 
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Keyser Soze wrote:
immessedup17 wrote:
Take the best player when possible. The rest works itself out.

Fair enough.

The Cubs were not going to take a major league ready pitcher in 2012. No way the Cubs are going to start the major league clock on that type of player when there were still a couple of lost seasons to be had. And the Cubs weren't going to stash Appel in the minors for three seasons either.

So I guess there is some gray area.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 4:31 pm 
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so we have established that Keyzer understands it but doesnt like the Cubs plan. fair enough.

IMU, states take the best player, then the rest works itself out. Well, I agree with take the best player first, but they have been quite clear on drafting a number of arms in later rounds and then let it work itself out.

Look at the 2013 Draft. 11 of the top 15 picks. PITCHERS, 7 of the top 10, Pitchers.

I dont think I am breaking any news here. Its exactly what they said they would do? not sure why someone wouldnt UNDERSTAND it? Not agree with it, OK, but kinda easy to understand

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 4:43 pm 
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Shoot me.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 5:06 pm 
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Epsteins time as gm seems longer than two years


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 5:12 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Epsteins time as gm seems longer than two years

Interesting statement.

Because you don't agree with his analysis of progress made? Or just because the Cubs have been so bad for that time period?

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immessedup17 wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Epsteins time as gm seems longer than two years

Interesting statement.

Because you don't agree with his analysis of progress made? Or just because the Cubs have been so bad for that time period?

I think its more the drawn out negotiation for the trade.

But many have seemingly written him off as if hes been here "long enough "


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