This weekly wagering contest will reward the best football prognosticator with a $100 gift certificate from a meat/steak company. New guys can still join in any time and you don't have to make a pick every week. You can post your plays any time, but they must be posted before a game you are playing kicks off. You must make your picks in this thread and you must provide at least one reason for each pick.

............................Last Week........Season..........%
Mitch Cumstein..........4-2...............4-2.........67
schmitty1121.............2-1...............2-1.........67
Irish Boy...................8-7-2.............8-7-2.......53
donspiracy.................3-2...............4-4.........50
Darren-Tinley Park.....3-3...............3-3.........50
boilermaker rick.........2-2...............2-2.........50
Hawkeye Vince..........1-0-1.............2-2-1.......50
reents.......................5-9-1.............9-12-1......43
FarveFan.....................2-3...............2-3.........40
good dolphin................3-5...............5-8.........38
muman89....................1-2...............1-2.........33
chus.........................4-8-1.............7-17-1......30
chuckle nuts................1-3...............1-3.........25
BD..............................1-3...............1-3.........25
hootmon.....................0-3-1.............0-3-1.......0
Coasttocoast................0-0...............0-2.........0
Bud Dude....................0-0...............0-1.........0
Nas.............................0-1...............0-1.........0

Thanks for the help.

_________________
CSFMB: Home of the small minded

Cincinatti -6.5 over Cleveland

Cleveland is a mess and the Bengals can easily win this 27-10 without even trying.

Houston +6.5 over Carolina

Im not completely sold on Carolina and I like Houston's defense. Mario Williams looked awesome against KC. I think this could be close

GB -1 over NYG

The Giants are too banged up and without Eli, GB has San Diego the next week and they know they need this win.

Seattle -3 over Cardinals

Arizona didnt look really good against a 49ers team that also didnt look good. I really like this Seattle team and think they will win by 10 points

Bears - 12 over Chiefs

The Chiefs are terrible and the Bears are pissed. I think Benspn has one of his few great games this year against a team missing their best D Lineman. 35-0 Bears.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

Cincinnati -6.5
The Browns might be the worst team in the league. The Bengals defense was very impressive last night. I know you shouldn't bet based on one game, but I watched their game against the Steelers (my buddy that has the ticket is a Steeler fan). They couldn't get out of their own way. The number will surely climb to seven. Bengals roll.

Carolina -6.5
The Texans don't get Damon Huard and Michael Bennett this week. The Panthers have two backs to pound you, the best receiver in football, a better QB and better defense than the Chefs, and now they play on the road. The number should be higher, but after a Texans win, they are a bit overvalued.


Temple +29.5
UConn should never be a four touchdown favorite against anyone.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Purdue -20.5 vs. Central Michigan
The Purdue offense is clicking on all cylinders against inferior defenses. I've seen this type of game for many years and when the offense is clicking like this they are dominant. I'm not ready to predict them to dominate the Big Ten this way, but they will dominate Central Michigan. Purdue to cover.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Iowa State +17.5 over Iowa
Rivalry games always find a way to be closer than they should be and while Iowa is good this year they are not dominant on offense.

Louisville -6.5 over Kentucky
Louisville's offense is too powerful to not win the game by at least a TD.

Note: All my lines come from sportsbook.com

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

New Orleans -3
Another number that will rise. Tampa is bad. Cadillac is in the garage, the receivers are bad, and the defense isn't that good anymore. The Saints will be fired up after being embarassed by Goober and the Colts.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

All picks in this post moved below...

_________________
Fire Phil Emery

USC -10 vs. Nebraska
USC is too good, and they want to put up an LSU-like statement game.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Packers vs. Giants and the over set at 37.5
Giants pass D did not look good on Sunday, Favre will do his little song and dance and put up some numbers. Even if Eli doesn't play it will turn into a some sort of a shootout.

Can someone help me with the math that 2-2-1 is not 50%?

If you look at others records he is counting a tie as a loss

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

Ties should be counted as a push not a loss

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Exactly Chus.....That should be the same across the board. I was only pointing out my own, but you're right.

Seattle -2.5
Alexander and Hucklebuck are healthy, and their defense is exceptional. I don't like Matt Leinart, and Edge is on his last legs. Zona's D is average at best. 'Hawks by 7.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

I corrected them above.

To start week 2/3 off

Thursday night
TCU -8 @ Air Force and OVER 42
This looks to be a tremendous opportunity to play TCU. Air Force is still a one dimensional team and this is a TCU team that since joining the Mountain West has laid the lumber to Air Force by an average of 43 to 12. This TCU team has knocked off a Big 12 squad (Baylor) and had Texas on the ropes before letting them slip away. Typically when Air Force loses as a home dog they get smoked. 35-10 in the asking here.

Friday night:
Oklahoma State @ Troy +10
At first glance, you'd think Troy would be prime to get smoked this week but after looking a bit more, they have played two of the toughest SEC teams in the country in Florida and Arkansas on the road the last two weeks. They get a rare home game against a BCS school and look to take advantadge. This is a total trap game for OKState, coming off a win against Florida Atlantic and looking forward to a matchup with A&M. Give me Troy and the points.

Adding on Saturday at 12:30 - keeping to one post to make it easier to keep track....

Western Michigan @ Missouri -20.5
Missouri had been on the road the last two weeks, winning two tough games against BCS foes in Mississippi and Illinois. They are averaging nearly 40 a game. Western Michigan comes into this game after losing at home to Indiana and are giving up nearly 50 a game. Mizzou is 7-1 ATS at home the last 8 games.

Southern Mississippi @ East Carolina +1.5
East Carolina has played two tough games against ACC foes and comes home to open conference play. They excel in their rushing defense which balances against SM's strength on O.

Indianapolis (-6.5) @ Tennessee (bookmaker): Vince Young just wins games! Until he doesn't, because Indy just put up 49 and VY has no one to throw the ball to. Don't let week one fool you; Chris Brown is bad. Remember that huge week one that Cade McNown had in 2000 against the Vikings. Flukes happen. Indy covers without any problems.

Houston (+7) @ Carolina (bodog): All aboard the Houston bandwagon! The Panthers main weapon is Steve Smith, but I have a feeling that Dunta Robinson will do a decent job of shutting him down. I'm going to keep playing Houston until ESPN Live is running "where did the Texans come from?" specials in week 6. I think everyone else would be supporting me on this if Houston was still the Oilers.

Chicago (-11) vs KC (bookmaker): KC is the worst team in the NFL. I already predicted 44-0 in the Bears section. The Bears are lightyears better than KC in every facet of the game, except for post-game speeches. Herm Edwards may let out a doosy on Sunday.

Washington (+7) @ Philly (bodog): I've got the Redskins winning the NFC East this year. Something's not quite right with McNabb; he's rushing the recovery, and he's worried about his job. I don't know that Washington wins this game, but I think they'll cover.

KC/Chicago 34.5 OVER (bodog): Because the Bears will get that alone, and if they don't, KC will clean up that mess with a garbage TD in the 4th quarter.

Oakland/Denver 38.5 UNDER (bodog): Neither team is going to be able to move the ball on the other. I know that Detroit put up a big number on Oakland, but Detroit has way more weapons through the air, and I just don't think that Mike Shanahan is going to put Jay Cutler in any position to rack up points. Plus, if anything, this game is going to be a blowout in favor of Denver, who still won't put up 30 points.

Notre Dame/Michigan 45 UNDER (bodog): I'd love to bet the Irish today, but I'm afraid I'll get more value out of pissing on my money, then eating it. I will, however, take the under on two teams starting freshman QBs.

Green Bay (pick) vs. NYG: I couldn't believe this line when I saw it. Green Bay isn't giving up points after beating Philly against a team with no QB? I know that the Packers had trouble scoring points, and that's going to be a recurring theme all year, but the Giants defense is bad, and that was before injuries to half the starting staff.

Louisville (-6.5) vs. Kentucky (sportsbook.com): piggybacking off Rick's pick. I don't normally play college football, but if I see a line I like, I'll play it. Louisville's stock is a little low after a closer-than-expected game against Bumblefuck State (IIRC), but all teams deserve a mulligan or two against lesser competition, as long as they still win their mulligans by 2 TDs. They'll come out strong again, and the Brian Brohm Heisman Experience will continue rolling. They seem like a lock to win by a TD or more, especially if Tubby Smith has been recruiting for the football team as well.

Seattle (-3) vs. Arizona: Arizona is bad, and they will have only 6 days to prepare. Yes, they'll be at home, but it's not like Glendale is exactly anyone's house of horrors, although give it a few years and ask Ken Whisenhunt again. If Seattle is a good team, they should win this game by at least a field goal- no excuse for them not to cover here.

Cincy (-6.5) vs. Cleveland: everyone seems ready to jump off this pick/disown it/hedge themselves. Not me! Come on, guys, this seems like one of those games you worry about being close until about 12:14 in the first quarter, when Chad Johnson starts humping the pylon because he just scored from Cincy's 35 yard line.

Oakland (+10) vs. Denver: Denver plays down to their competition, and I think Oakland can at the very least keep this one close. I just don't trust the Broncos to cover that many points.

That's it for me this week. All in one handy dandy post for your viewing pleasure!

EDIT- Sun. about 10:00 A.M.- OK, one more pick

Giants UNDER 20.5 (newbodog)- not against this Packers defense they're not. Not without Brandon Jacobs they're not. Not without either Jared Lorenzen or an injured Eli Manning behind center they're not.

_________________
Fire Phil Emery

TCU -7.5
TCU over 24.5
TCU/Air Force over 42
(bookmaker)

This game looks too easy, but I am expecting a blowout tonight. TCU may break 42 themselves.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

TCU -8 at Air Force

The only thing that will stop TCU is a let down after a big game.

WV -17 (newbodog) -- Mountaineers should be easily able to cover the seventeen here. They love running the score up on national televised games, and will want to show the public that the 2nd half of the Marshall game was much more their speed than the 1st. Maryland comes into the game 2-0, though one was against a FCS team and the other against a Sun Belt team. With the exception of Lattimore, I don't see the Terps being able to hang in a shootout with WV, and WV has only allowed 7 rushing first downs in the first two games.

----

After starting the week with a WV push, I'll throw a couple more out there (newbodog lines)

East Carolina +1 - Fresh off a win over North Carolina, Chris Johnson and Patrick Pickney should find enough holes in the Southern Miss secondary to be able to create some big plays and roll on to victory.

UCLA -15.5 - UCLA needs to use this game as a tune-up before starting the bulk of their Pac-10 run. Utah hasn't been able to move the ball well on offense, which hopefully will provide a confidence boost to UCLA's defense.

Maryland +17
This is way too many points for a home dog against their rivals, on national TV on Thursday night. WV has played two cupcakes so far. Maryland is a far superior opponent.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Bears -12 vs KC

This could be 40-0. KC and Cleveland are the two worst teams in the NFL.

Bengals -6.5 @ Cleveland

See above, Cleveland is the worst team in the league. Surprised the number is this low.

NY Jets +10.5 @ Baltimore

I know Pennington might be out, but I can't understand why this number is so high. A lot of value here.

Louisville -6.5 @ Kentucky

Perhaps Louisville was looking ahead last week, but I expect Brohm and co. to light it up against a mediocre Kentucky defense.

Oakland/Denver over 37.5

Oakland's D is way over-rated, and I think Denver will be able to exploit them.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Chus, and everyone else, please just edit your original post when you have additional thoughts on the week. It makes it less confusing and easier to follow the thoughts of people whose opinions I respect.

That means I am still free to make multiple posts per week.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

NFL
Cincinnati -6.5
The Browns might be the worst team in the league. The Bengals defense was very impressive last night. I know you shouldn't bet based on one game, but I watched their game against the Steelers (my buddy that has the ticket is a Steeler fan). They couldn't get out of their own way. The number will surely climb to seven. Bengals roll.

Carolina -6.5
The Texans don't get Damon Huard and Michael Bennett this week. The Panthers have two backs to pound you, the best receiver in football, a better QB and better defense than the Chefs, and now they play on the road. The number should be higher, but after a Texans win, they are a bit overvalued.

New Orleans -3
&
NO/TB over 41.5
Another number that will rise. Tampa is bad. Cadillac is in the garage, the receivers are bad, and the defense isn't that good anymore. The Saints will bounce back after being embarassed by Goober and the Colts.

Seattle -2.5
Alexander and Hucklebuck are healthy, and their defense is exceptional. I don't like Matt Leinart, and Edge is on his last legs. Zona's D is average at best. 'Hawks by 7.

Oakland/Denver over 37.5
Oakland's D is way over-rated, and I think Denver will be able to exploit them.

NCAA

Temple +29.5
UConn should never be a four touchdown favorite against anyone.

Maryland +17
This is way too many points for a home dog against their rivals, on national TV on Thursday night. WV has played two cupcakes so far. Maryland is a far superior opponent.

TCU -7.5
TCU over 24.5
TCU/Air Force over 42
(bookmaker)
This game looks too easy, but I am expecting a blowout tonight. TCU may break 42 themselves.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Talk about wetting the bed. Up 17-3, throw two picks in the endzone, miss 2 fieldgoals.

Here are five picks for my week:

Bengals -6.5 over Browns--I think there has been enough discussion on Browns troubles already.

Saints -3.5 over Tampa--Saints come roaring back with a big win. Not even the 14 QBs on the Bucs roster can make a difference.

Ravens -9.5 over Jets--Jets in disarray, Ravens pissed over last week's loss. NY could be shut out in this game.

Packers +1 over Giants--Pack looked good last week. Giants say Manning might play, rest of the world thinks he is out for a month.

Bears -12 over Chefs--This one could get ugly.

_________________
You cannot make me care about the WNBA.

After starting the week with a WV push, I'll throw a couple more out there (newbodog lines)

East Carolina +1 - Fresh off a win over North Carolina, Chris Johnson and Patrick Pickney should find enough holes in the Southern Miss secondary to be able to create some big plays and roll on to victory.

UCLA -15.5 - UCLA needs to use this game as a tune-up before starting the bulk of their Pac-10 run. Utah hasn't been able to move the ball well on offense, which hopefully will provide a confidence boost to UCLA's defense.

Lines from www.thegreek.com.

Syracuse +12.5 against Illinois
I'm a big Illini fan but they haven't proved they can blow out a Division 1 team yet. I still hope Illinois wins the game though.

Virginia Tech -21 over Ohio
Danger game here. Either Va Tech will be licking their wounds from last week or taking their anger out against Ohio. I'm betting on the latter.

Notre Dame +8 against Michigan
Battle of the freshmen quarterbacks with the slight edge to Clausen. Too many points to give to ND but I'm hoping Michigan actually wins the game (so does Michael Hart).

UNLV +17 against Hawaii
Another danger game here. UNLV surprised many (including me) last week against Wisconsin. Was it a fluke? I'm going with the trend that when Hawaii travels to the US, take the points.

New Orleans -3.5 over Tampa Bay
The Saints have had plenty of time to stew over their loss to the Colts and prepare to face TB. Plus TB is a terrible team.

Carolina -6.5 over Houston
Safe pick as long as the spread stays below a td. Carolina's win last week was much more impressive than Houston's win.