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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 8:05 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Even if you believe Wins are good stat, there is no denying that the other peripheral numbers are much better at projecting the future.


True to some degree, but also the reason people kept given big money to guys like Javy Vazquez and Edwin Jackson.

Its especially misleading to look at Samardzija's wins. The Cubs have been 28th in runs the last two years.


It may be misleading and it may not. He could be Dave Stewart or Red Ruffing, but I'd say it's more likely that he's A.J. Burnett at best.

Yeah, that's about right. Burnett is a good pitcher.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 8:11 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Big Chicagoan wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
12 mill is about average for a decent #2-#3 starter


He wants $18M/yr.

He's not getting that.

Which is why I proposed the more realistic 15 per


If they offer 5 yrs 75 and he wants 5 years 90 i think they can make it work. With these tv contracts entering the picture will 15-18 per even be huge money towards the end of this deal?

I wish they could lock down shark at 5/75 and T Wood at 5/60.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 8:14 am 
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Makes sense. Burnett makes 15M.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 8:22 am 
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Ive obviously underestimated what the market should bear for a career .500 pitcher. If Burnett is the benchmark, ( whom Sammy will be lucky to be as good as / have the career that he has which is 12 over .500 in 16 years) then yeah I guess 4 or 5 years at 15 per is fair. Seems like thats a lot to pay for a 3rd starter when you still need a number 1 and 2.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 8:37 am 
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badrogue17 wrote:
Ive obviously underestimated what the market should bear for a career .500 pitcher. If Burnett is the benchmark, ( whom Sammy will be lucky to be as good as / have the career that he has which is 12 over .500 in 16 years) then yeah I guess 4 or 5 years at 15 per is fair. Seems like thats a lot to pay for a 3rd starter when you still need a number 1 and 2.

Pitching is insane.

41 starting pitchers make 10 million per year and that doesnt include young guys (like Sale)who arent paid yet


http://www.spotrac.com/rankings/mlb/total/starting-pitcher/limit-100/


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 8:45 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Its a difficult thing to get a near ready for MLB SP unless what you're trading for him is MUCH better (like Cliff Lee, Sabathia, at the times of their trades)


Id keep Samardzija only because I can't see getting proper value for him



Sign Shark and Wood and you have half a decent rotation guarenteed for 4 years


That's the way I see it. Payroll is low right now. Spend a little.

Isn't he under control for another 2 years anyway?

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 8:54 am 
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bigfan wrote:
[To his credit this year, to date, he has been a legit #1, best pitcher in Chicago?.


Hmmm...I guess Sale DID have that one start where he didn't absolutely dominate.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:02 am 
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good dolphin wrote:
bigfan wrote:
[To his credit this year, to date, he has been a legit #1, best pitcher in Chicago?.


Hmmm...I guess Sale DID have that one start where he didn't absolutely dominate.


Actually he had 1 game in which he dominated and gave up no earned runs, the other 2 he allowed 3 ER in each, which is good but not dominate.

Jeffers, has allowed 0,1,2 runs in his respective starts.

I don't think it will continue, but TO DATE, Sale has not been the better pitcher.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:07 am 
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bigfan wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
bigfan wrote:
[To his credit this year, to date, he has been a legit #1, best pitcher in Chicago?.


Hmmm...I guess Sale DID have that one start where he didn't absolutely dominate.


Actually he had 1 game in which he dominated and gave up no earned runs, the other 2 he allowed 3 ER in each, which is good but not dominate.

Jeffers, has allowed 0,1,2 runs in his respective starts.

I don't think it will continue, but TO DATE, Sale has not been the better pitcher.

Sale has a much better WHIP, which I'm always told is a better measure than anything else.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:07 am 
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Fail, bigfan. Sale HAS been the better pitcher.

3-0 2.66 ERA 0.93 WHIP

0-1 1.29 ERA 1.05 WHIP

That is not to say that Samardjiza has been bad, but give me a 3-0 record with a 2.6 ERA in the AL 100% of the time over the numbers Samardjiza has put up so far in the NL.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:27 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Fail, bigfan. Sale HAS been the better pitcher.

3-0 2.66 ERA 0.93 WHIP

0-1 1.29 ERA 1.05 WHIP

That is not to say that Samardjiza has been bad, but give me a 3-0 record with a 2.6 ERA in the AL 100% of the time over the numbers Samardjiza has put up so far in the NL.


The really smart baseball guys do use Wins as a major indicator of how a guy has pitched, Frank is right again. I apologize. And .93 is Far Superior to 1.05 in the WHIP category.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:31 am 
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Sale has been far superior. Steve Stone was correct again!

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:34 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
badrogue17 wrote:
A number I like to look at for starters is wins and Sammy had all of 8 to go along with a sparkling 4.3 ERA last year. Again what he's doing now is mirroring what he did last year at the start. Im more interested in how he's going to handle July August September this year . Even then Im not writing him the check he wants . He thinks he's better than he is.

Even if you believe Wins are good stat, there is no denying that the other peripheral numbers are much better at projecting the future.

Especially pitching for a terrible team like the Cubs.

Bernstein continuously preaches that wins are a totally meaningless stat.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:35 am 
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SteveSarley wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
badrogue17 wrote:
A number I like to look at for starters is wins and Sammy had all of 8 to go along with a sparkling 4.3 ERA last year. Again what he's doing now is mirroring what he did last year at the start. Im more interested in how he's going to handle July August September this year . Even then Im not writing him the check he wants . He thinks he's better than he is.

Even if you believe Wins are good stat, there is no denying that the other peripheral numbers are much better at projecting the future.

Especially pitching for a terrible team like the Cubs.

Bernstein continuously preaches that wins are a totally meaningless stat.

Bernstein knows not of which he speaks when it comes to baseball in general and its most pronounced when discussing advanced stats.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:42 am 
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SteveSarley wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
badrogue17 wrote:
A number I like to look at for starters is wins and Sammy had all of 8 to go along with a sparkling 4.3 ERA last year. Again what he's doing now is mirroring what he did last year at the start. Im more interested in how he's going to handle July August September this year . Even then Im not writing him the check he wants . He thinks he's better than he is.

Even if you believe Wins are good stat, there is no denying that the other peripheral numbers are much better at projecting the future.

Especially pitching for a terrible team like the Cubs.

Bernstein continuously preaches that wins are a totally meaningless stat.


Partially misleading is a better way of saying it.

Wins are a situational stat and they should be redone as so. CGW, QGW, etc

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:43 am 
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bigfan wrote:
And .93 is Far Superior to 1.05 in the WHIP category.

:lol: Actually yes, it is.

You don't think JORR is a really smart baseball guy?

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:45 am 
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good dolphin wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Its a difficult thing to get a near ready for MLB SP unless what you're trading for him is MUCH better (like Cliff Lee, Sabathia, at the times of their trades)


Id keep Samardzija only because I can't see getting proper value for him



Sign Shark and Wood and you have half a decent rotation guarenteed for 4 years


That's the way I see it. Payroll is low right now. Spend a little.

Isn't he under control for another 2 years anyway?


There are two Cy Young winners who will be FA in the next two seasons. Spend the money on them and sacrifice the draft picks. Even if they have to pay $25M+ yr to those guys, the payroll right now is ridiculously low.

Use Shark to replace those draft pick prospects in a trade. Resign Wood and fill out the rotation with Hendricks, Rusin, Johnson, Edwards, Arrieta.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:46 am 
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FavreFan wrote:
You don't think JORR is a really smart baseball guy?

Image

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:47 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Fail, bigfan. Sale HAS been the better pitcher.

3-0 2.66 ERA 0.93 WHIP

0-1 1.29 ERA 1.05 WHIP

That is not to say that Samardjiza has been bad, but give me a 3-0 record with a 2.6 ERA in the AL 100% of the time over the numbers Samardjiza has put up so far in the NL.

Runs that Cubs scored in Shark's starts: 0, 0 and 6 (Veras blowing a 3-1 save). Sale really earned that win going 5IP, 3ER Friday.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:48 am 
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spanky wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
You don't think JORR is a really smart baseball guy?

Image

There's less than 5 guys on this board who know more about baseball than JORR. There might be none.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:50 am 
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Kirkwood wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Fail, bigfan. Sale HAS been the better pitcher.

3-0 2.66 ERA 0.93 WHIP

0-1 1.29 ERA 1.05 WHIP

That is not to say that Samardjiza has been bad, but give me a 3-0 record with a 2.6 ERA in the AL 100% of the time over the numbers Samardjiza has put up so far in the NL.

Runs that Cubs scored in Shark's starts: 0, 0 and 6 (Veras blowing a 3-1 save). Sale really earned that win going 5IP, 3ER Friday.

:lol: We going to go down this road again?

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:55 am 
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If Frank thinks Sale barely "outdueling" a fifth starter by doing the bare minimum then yes an education must commence.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 10:03 am 
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Big Chicagoan wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Its a difficult thing to get a near ready for MLB SP unless what you're trading for him is MUCH better (like Cliff Lee, Sabathia, at the times of their trades)


Id keep Samardzija only because I can't see getting proper value for him



Sign Shark and Wood and you have half a decent rotation guarenteed for 4 years


That's the way I see it. Payroll is low right now. Spend a little.

Isn't he under control for another 2 years anyway?


There are two Cy Young winners who will be FA in the next two seasons. Spend the money on them and sacrifice the draft picks. Even if they have to pay $25M+ yr to those guys, the payroll right now is ridiculously low.

Use Shark to replace those draft pick prospects in a trade. Resign Wood and fill out the rotation with Hendricks, Rusin, Johnson, Edwards, Arrieta.


How much do you think they will have to overpay for those two Cy Young's to convince them to join The(o) Plan versus, say, the Tigers who are a ready made contender with deep pockets?

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 10:05 am 
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Kirkwood wrote:
If Frank thinks Sale barely "outdueling" a fifth starter by doing the bare minimum then yes an education must commence.
One pitcher is 3-0. However he got there, he is 3-0 with a 2.26 ERA.

bigfan erroneously stated that Sale has not been the better pitcher to date. I pointed out just how wrong he was.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 10:09 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Kirkwood wrote:
If Frank thinks Sale barely "outdueling" a fifth starter by doing the bare minimum then yes an education must commence.
One pitcher is 3-0. However he got there, he is 3-0 with a 2.26 ERA.

bigfan erroneously stated that Sale has not been the better pitcher to date. I pointed out just how wrong he was.

But it is funny to hear Cub fans on one hand say how Samardjiza has been the best pitcher in Chicago this year, and on the other say they don't want to pay him. I'm glad Hahn was smart enough to avoid any of this type of dilemma with Sale.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 10:13 am 
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good dolphin wrote:
Big Chicagoan wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Its a difficult thing to get a near ready for MLB SP unless what you're trading for him is MUCH better (like Cliff Lee, Sabathia, at the times of their trades)


Id keep Samardzija only because I can't see getting proper value for him



Sign Shark and Wood and you have half a decent rotation guarenteed for 4 years


That's the way I see it. Payroll is low right now. Spend a little.

Isn't he under control for another 2 years anyway?


There are two Cy Young winners who will be FA in the next two seasons. Spend the money on them and sacrifice the draft picks. Even if they have to pay $25M+ yr to those guys, the payroll right now is ridiculously low.

Use Shark to replace those draft pick prospects in a trade. Resign Wood and fill out the rotation with Hendricks, Rusin, Johnson, Edwards, Arrieta.


How much do you think they will have to overpay for those two Cy Young's to convince them to join The(o) Plan versus, say, the Tigers who are a ready made contender with deep pockets?


Price will get $30M/yr, Scherezer will get $27.5M. Scherezer basically already told Detroit to go suck a dick, so shouldn't be a problem getting to put an offer on him. There aren't too many big market teams with loads of cash to spend.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:57 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Fail, bigfan. Sale HAS been the better pitcher.

3-0 2.66 ERA 0.93 WHIP

0-1 1.29 ERA 1.05 WHIP

That is not to say that Samardjiza has been bad, but give me a 3-0 record with a 2.6 ERA in the AL 100% of the time over the numbers Samardjiza has put up so far in the NL.

Give me the guy who's giving up well over a run less per game at the expense of what amounts to one extra hit/walk.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:58 pm 
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Give me a sample size of more than three starts.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 1:02 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
Give me a sample size of more than three starts.

Well obviously, but if we are gonna compare the two...


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 1:13 pm 
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lipidquadcab wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Fail, bigfan. Sale HAS been the better pitcher.

3-0 2.66 ERA 0.93 WHIP

0-1 1.29 ERA 1.05 WHIP

That is not to say that Samardjiza has been bad, but give me a 3-0 record with a 2.6 ERA in the AL 100% of the time over the numbers Samardjiza has put up so far in the NL.

Give me the guy who's giving up well over a run less per game at the expense of what amounts to one extra hit/walk.



I'll take the guy who is pitching better than the guys he is facing.

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