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 Post subject: Better Minor Production
PostPosted: Thu Apr 17, 2014 10:48 am 
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Top 5 MLB draft picks should work out to some degree as a major league players. I would say I can't give Theo and Jed tons of credit for the #1 picks of Almora, Bryant and Baez. However, I watched Jim Hendry mess up a whole load of #1 picks, so when I compare these #1 picks to the past of Pie, Vitters, Jackson, Simpson, A RodII, etc. These guys are busts. Not just bad major leaguers, but non MLB players. Tyler colvin at least came up and played a little as a real player.

While I can't say "ANYONE COULD HAVE PICKED THOSE GUYS" because facts show others may have screwed it up and these guys still need to show they are as good as billed.

Who else has this system of statistical wizards produced? Olt and Edwards, sure I will give them credit for making the trade for them, but it's still not another guy they drafted.

Even Rusin isn't a THEO Inc. pick.

Looking for the guy they found in round 10 that becomes something, to warrant the money, hype and resources put into "The Program"

They have made very good deals (minus E jax) and who they have drafted high look very promising, but where is the development?

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 17, 2014 10:50 am 
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Baez was Hendry


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 17, 2014 11:02 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Baez was Hendry


Further diggin my point in.

I just don't think GM's picking guys who are proving themselves in college, are a stretch. Bryant, Prior, Sale, etc. You know what these guys are.

Rizzo, gets some credit for Jed and Theo, as he is what they want and was still a risk when they traded cashner (Yes, hendry)

Still, 3 years of minor leaguers, I want to see one guy rise from nowhere to be a top 5 prospect? How about a top 10? and not a guy who was drafted in round 1.

They said, part of the plan was drafting a large number of pitchers after round 1, which they have done, now which one has developed? I will sit down and listen for my answer.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 17, 2014 11:03 am 
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Late round draft picks take awhile to be judged...they usually don't just set the world on fire right away. In 2016 we may be able to look at a 20th round draft pick in 2012 and say "wow, good pick."

C J Edwards was 48th round in 2011.

At this point, two years into Theo and Jed, I'm happy there hasn't been a complete bust like Hayden Simpson yet. I'm also happy with their dedication to outlining a plan and sticking with it, despite minor outcries from idiot fans.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 17, 2014 11:04 am 
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bigfan wrote:
They said, part of the plan was drafting a large number of pitchers after round 1, which they have done, now which one has developed? I will sit down and listen for my answer.

2012 draft picks had their first full season of minor league ball last season, and 2013 picks have not had a full season yet.

2011 draft was Hendry.

Are you trolling or oblivious?

edit: And international picks this past season are too young / raw to even be judged. These have to be considered, but not now. A couple years from now.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 17, 2014 11:08 am 
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Blackburn and Tseng are pitching pretty well in KC.

Saunders and Rademacher have both hit well in Daytona though both are just considered organizational guys. Almora has been so so with a bloody nose. Vogelbach has hit a wall so far this season there. (he might be a hendry guy)
Rob Zastryzny has pitched ok in Daytona. 2nd round pick last year...1 good outing one not so good outing but not terrible.

Nothing doing in AA other than Bryant and all the pitchers they traded for (edwards,pinero and black) all doing well btw but not homegrown.

Damn......after looking through the guys who are playing this year they really haven't done a fucking thing outside of the 1st round. They have developed to high A organizational guys. Maybe they flooded the organization with high school guys and international guys who are all still in extended spring training. They should be producing at least something from rounds 2-10 and there is nothing...other than vogelbach who was only drafted that low because of the money they threw at him to keep him away from college.

It pisses me off still that the Cardinals can just draft and develop anyone. They have a guy on their fucking major league roster contributing who where drafted while jed and theo have been with the Cubs. Wong was from Hendry's last draft and Wacha after.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 17, 2014 2:02 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
C J Edwards was 48th round in 2011.
He should act like a 48th round pick; http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/cj-edwar ... in-pennant

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 17, 2014 2:38 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Late round draft picks take awhile to be judged...they usually don't just set the world on fire right away. In 2016 we may be able to look at a 20th round draft pick in 2012 and say "wow, good pick."

C J Edwards was 48th round in 2011.

At this point, two years into Theo and Jed, I'm happy there hasn't been a complete bust like Hayden Simpson yet. I'm also happy with their dedication to outlining a plan and sticking with it, despite minor outcries from idiot fans.


About 3 days ago, jeff samardzija said the exact same thing about " losing on purpose". I'm surprised it didn't get more play in the press.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 17, 2014 7:02 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
bigfan wrote:
They said, part of the plan was drafting a large number of pitchers after round 1, which they have done, now which one has developed? I will sit down and listen for my answer.

2012 draft picks had their first full season of minor league ball last season, and 2013 picks have not had a full season yet.

2011 draft was Hendry.

Are you trolling or oblivious?

edit: And international picks this past season are too young / raw to even be judged. These have to be considered, but not now. A couple years from now.


Even Johnson and Blackburn, ranked 15th and 19th are 1st round picks.

I am not talking about a guy who is a Baseball America top 50 kid, I am just talking about a guy ranked #19 in the system, because he is 6'6" and throws 95 or 98 and now they need to straighten him out.

I see a ton of "doesn't throw hard" guys, but "crafty and has 4 pitches" as the premier prospects in the pitching tunnel.

Please don't even start preaching to me about patience. Forget the losing and getting a high pick strategy, but the money and development of a system should be in place at this point and I just want one surprise to arise from the self described mess of pitchers that they have acquired.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 17, 2014 7:17 pm 
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Fair enough. You may still get your surprise. You have to give those late rounders a chance to separate themselves from the rest.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 17, 2014 8:26 pm 
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One of the products of this rebuilding was a minor league system that produced from finding that needle in a haystack, or in this case, the kid whose stats just didnt seem right, the guy who was better than everyone thought, because Theo, Jed and Computer Programmer #12545 contrived a formula to find this guy.

Just by shear luck teams find these guys. Castro came from nowhere, Buhrle came from nowhere (Unless you ask some people), but teams do just find guys that after age 18 become much better players.

I might suggest they start looking for some bigger kids as well. Guys that grew when they turned 16 and 17, and thus didnt get on the radar. This is for pitchers and hitters, but I am this is baked into the WAR DEPT.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 17, 2014 9:02 pm 
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Saunders is having himself a nice night in Daytona. Few hits, HR, SB. He was a 29th round pick in 2012 I believe.
Ben Carhart is doing pretty well but he is also only in KC. he was a 35th round pick in 2012.

Saunders could actually develop. He is close to if not 25 already so he is kind of old but the guy could be a utility steal from a D3 college. He can play 3rd,ss,2b and all OF positions. He has speed and just hits no matter what level they have put him at. He was hurt a lot of last year but they beat the shit out of him his 1st year. He played in 50 or so college games which at the d3 level is a lot in an extremely short period of time and then he went straight to arizona and played the entire rest of the season...which he is in no way used to.

It will be a few years to see if any of the younger high school late round guys develop as they are still in extended spring training.

The only names that I see popping up out of nowhere seem to be from dsl or vsl.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 17, 2014 9:12 pm 
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bigfan wrote:
Top 5 MLB draft picks should work out to some degree as a major league players. I would say I can't give Theo and Jed tons of credit for the #1 picks of Almora, Bryant and Baez. However, I watched Jim Hendry mess up a whole load of #1 picks, so when I compare these #1 picks to the past of Pie, Vitters, Jackson, Simpson, A RodII, etc. These guys are busts. Not just bad major leaguers, but non MLB players. Tyler colvin at least came up and played a little as a real player.

While I can't say "ANYONE COULD HAVE PICKED THOSE GUYS" because facts show others may have screwed it up and these guys still need to show they are as good as billed.

Who else has this system of statistical wizards produced? Olt and Edwards, sure I will give them credit for making the trade for them, but it's still not another guy they drafted.

Even Rusin isn't a THEO Inc. pick.

Looking for the guy they found in round 10 that becomes something, to warrant the money, hype and resources put into "The Program"

They have made very good deals (minus E jax) and who they have drafted high look very promising, but where is the development?

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 18, 2014 1:39 am 
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2013 Draft

Zack Godley P RD 10
Trevor Graham P RD 13
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=643375 Tyler Ihrig P RD 23

2012 Draft

Pierce Johnson p RD CA
Michael Heesch P RD 8
Bijan Rademacher RF RD 13
Corbin Hoffner P RD 14
Michael Hamann P RD 16
Nathan Dorris P RD 17
Jasvir Rakkar P RD 26
Tim Saunders 2B RD 32

All these guys are productive. They have a shot of making the majors if they can keep improving.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 18, 2014 7:47 am 
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OK, Tyler I RIG, 25 inn, 2 ER allowed. Sure it's Rookie Ball, but have to start somewhere.

Like the 30 K's, 25 inn ratio.

I know they drafted a slew of pitchers, it's easy to say if guys keep progressing they will be good.

I want to see the guy who is better than the guys he is playing against now in the minors.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 18, 2014 8:38 am 
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I don't know if it is still a popular metric but I have always thought the K:BB ratio for a minor league pitcher is a really good indicator of dominance.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 18, 2014 1:28 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
I don't know if it is still a popular metric but I have always thought the K:BB ratio for a minor league pitcher is a really good indicator of dominance.


All of the guys I listed have a good K:BB ratio and low era. One of the things that stood out was the lack of quality position players after the first round. Saunders was the only guy with decent stats. No one however had any power. No Micah Hoffpauir in this group of youngsters.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 18, 2014 1:31 pm 
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Juiced wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
I don't know if it is still a popular metric but I have always thought the K:BB ratio for a minor league pitcher is a really good indicator of dominance.


All of the guys I listed have a good K:BB ratio and low era. One of the things that stood out was the lack of quality position players after the first round. Saunders was the only guy with decent stats. No one however had any power. No Micah Hoffpauir in this group of youngsters.


That's because they barely drafted any position players after the first round. A lot of the positional talent at the lower levels are all signed as FA from other countries.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 18, 2014 3:01 pm 
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Juiced wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
I don't know if it is still a popular metric but I have always thought the K:BB ratio for a minor league pitcher is a really good indicator of dominance.


All of the guys I listed have a good K:BB ratio and low era. One of the things that stood out was the lack of quality position players after the first round. Saunders was the only guy with decent stats. No one however had any power. No Micah Hoffpauir in this group of youngsters.


They said they will draft a large number of pitchers v PP.

This is the 3rd year of playing for Theo and Jedds picks. By the 3rd year certain guys start to seperate themselves. This doesnt even mean they will be good ML pitchers. Unless everyone is so good that we have amassed a treasure trove of pitching and I will praise The WAR DEPT to no end.

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