Green Bay — Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy are fond of saying that success in pro football is determined by the play of veterans, not rookies.
Seldom would that seem more apropos than for the Green Bay Packers in 2014.
Each year, several of the Packers' draft choices bring more to the team than might be expected sight unseen. Personnel people say teams never really know what they have until seeing the rookies in their uniforms and on their fields.
If forced to take a premature position, my guess would be that the Packers won't gain much game-changing impact from their nine-man draft class this season and will realize only a modest amount when the final tally is made a decade from now.
The Packers' first two choices ran slow 40-yard dashes compared to other top players at safety and wide receiver, and only the last pick possesses exceptional speed.
Four of the first five choices were juniors, including three who had just three years on campus.
The Packers drafted the smallest of the top-10 centers, a short outside linebacker, another short defensive tackle and a slight wide receiver.
Three of the nine have had major operations and a fourth has had at least three concussions, according to several teams.
Two players will be 25 years old before the end of the season.
Thompson said he maintained the integrity of his board, but it could be argued that the Packers valued both of their third-round selections and their fourth-round pick higher than the league consensus.
Under Thompson, the Packers almost never have drafted people who couldn't play. Green Bay's board is respected by opposing scouts. One hears that year after year.
As always, only time will tell.
Rather than resort to superficiality and assign a letter grade on the draft overall, let's dig into the Packers' nine choices. Much of the information stems from countless interviews with general managers, personnel directors, scouting directors and area scouts in the last five months on more than 300 draft-eligible players.
Following each pick are two numbers. On a 1-to-10 scale — with 10 being the highest — the first number is the player's chance to really contribute as a rookie and the second number is his chance to really contribute during his career in Green Bay.
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama (9, 9): Inside linebackers Ryan Shazier, who went 15th to Pittsburgh, and C.J. Mosley, who went 17th to Baltimore, are game-changing players. Clinton-Dix probably won't be, but there's no reason he can't be a solid starter on a Super Bowl team.
Take Thompson at his word when he conceded he would have been "crushed" if the Crimson Tide's prototypical free safety had been snatched from his clutches immediately before the Packers chose 21st.
Calvin Pryor went three slots before Clinton-Dix, but it's likely the Packers preferred their man. My love for butt-kicking players such as Pryor knows no bounds, but the rules have changed and they will affect Pryor.
Despite a worrisome 4.59-second 40, Clinton-Dix has more potential than Pryor. It remains to be seen if he turns out better than Jimmie Ward (4.49), who went 30th to San Francisco. Ward has slot cover skills and is a more explosive athlete than Clinton-Dix, but he's also 3 inches shorter at 5-10½.
Speed is Clinton-Dix's only glaring negative. Remember how often Nick Collins would chase down breakaway ball carriers, saving what would have been a 75-yard touchdown? Clinton-Dix doesn't have game-saving burst, but he's rangier, a more accurate tackler and far more fundamentally sound entering the league than Collins, whose level of performance has become exaggerated over time.
Clinton-Dix won't be 22 until late December. He isn't a big hitter now, but give him two years of NFL weight work and maturity and he'll play stronger and with more confidence. He never turned anything down at Alabama. When it's his turn to collide with a running back, he collides.
Morgan Burnett is faster and a much better athletic tester. Clinton-Dix takes excellent angles and sees the field better.
Davante Adams, WR, Fresno State (8, 9): You've seen those phenomenal catches that Chicago's Alshon Jeffery, the 45th pick in 2012, has made at the pylon and across the middle. That's what Adams, the 53rd choice, has done.
Adams (6-1, 214, 4.55) isn't as tall and doesn't separate like Jeffery (6-3, 214, 4.48), but he has the same type of post-up ability and is probably even more dangerous after the catch.
His highlight reel of one-handed catches in the red zone is remarkable. Adams also bested Jeffery in the vertical jump (39½ inches to 36½) and broad jump (10-7 to 10-2).
Mike Evans (6-4½, 231, 4.52), the seventh selection, and Adams might have been the two best contact catchers in the draft. However, Adams is an even more confident catcher than Evans and can make a defender miss better after the catch.
Unlike many receivers, Adams isn't a diva and he's not selfish. Although he won't be 22 until Christmas Eve, he already takes a professional approach.
Scouts have called him sincere, compliant and a perfect teammate.
Thompson chose Adams over Penn State's dynamic Allen Robinson. That comparison will bear watching.
Adams' 40 time wasn't good. In the NFL today, however, some of the wideouts catching all the balls aren't much faster. With his hands and ability to leverage in traffic, he won't be a disappointment.
Khyri Thornton, DE-DT, Southern Mississippi (5, 7): Depending on how you categorize Thornton, he was either the sixth 3-4 defensive end or the eighth inside pass rusher off the board.
He is a physical specimen. He has a sudden first step. He has good strength and power.
Problem is, Thornton doesn't always play hard and only flashes production. He's raw using his hands, positioning his body, focusing and showing consistency. He also will turn 25 in November.
Thornton endured frequent coaching changes and played in a losing program. He is in need of good coaching, and that's what he will receive from Mike Trgovac.
The Packers viewed Thornton as having outstanding interior quickness, penetrating skill and speed in pursuit. Other teams saw his quickness as average and questioned if he would ever catch on.
At 6-2½, Thornton might be too short to play base end. He's a better fit as a one- or three-technique for a 4-3 team.
Will Clarke and Brent Urban were available as more traditional 3-4 ends, but the Packers seem more interested now in finding interior pass rushers even though that's what Mike Daniels, Mike Neal, Datone Jones and perhaps Jerel Worthy do best.
It was a strange choice in the third round. Thornton certainly has potential, but there are signals he will never realize it.
Richard Rodgers, TE, California (6, 7): The fact that the Packers would take a tight end after the consensus top five were selected, and with a top-100 pick, should indicate a low probability of a return by Jermichael Finley.
Making Rodgers the sixth tight end off the board shouldn't be questioned. There was grab-bag sentiment among scouts after C.J. Fiedorowicz, the No. 5 tight end.
Thompson, however, felt he needed a tight end to compete with Andrew Quarless, Brandon Bostick and others for immediate playing time. So he took Rodgers probably a round early just to get him.
Rodgers has terrific hands and NFL size (6-4, 257) and is the son of an NFL coach. He blocked OK in 2012 when he weighed about 270.
Problem is, Rodgers clocked 4.87. In 2011, Ryan Taylor ran 4.78 at 254 pounds, and you've seen what a threat he is down the seam.
All GMs reach in the first three rounds to plug needs.
Carl Bradford, OLB, Arizona State (4, 6): It's questionable if Bradford (6-1, 251), who is handicapped by 30½-inch arms, can win rushing against NFL tackles as he did ringing up 21½ sacks against collegiate tackles.
A defensive end, the Packers are projecting Bradford to linebacker. Not all scouts were convinced he could stand up.
If Bradford is capable of working from a two-point stance, he can begin to use his gifts. He's powerful, strong and a good knee-bender. With his toughness and natural leverage, he could set a heavy edge against the run provided his height isn't an impediment.
Bradford's 4.68 speed is adequate, but his pass-rushing repertoire isn't.
The only way he can overcome his length is to become technically refined. He'll give everything that he has.
In a perfect world, Bradford would be the next James Harrison (5-11, 260).
Corey Linsley, C, Ohio State (8,
: He was one of coach Urban Meyer's two or three favorite players last season. He was the Buckeyes' center for two seasons, and it's a given the Packers expect him to battle tooth and nail with converted Ivy League tackle JC Tretter for the job.
At 6-2½ and 299, Linsley was the shortest and lightest of the leading centers. He's the same height as Evan Dietrich-Smith and Jeff Saturday and one-half inch taller than Scott Wells.
However, Linsley plays stronger than 299. He can lift the gym, and that kind of power has prevented him from getting tossed around.
Linsley also runs well (4.99) and is sufficient as an athlete. He is smart and he is tough.
Jared Abbrederis, WR, Wisconsin (4, 6): His history of concussions didn't come up Saturday, but some teams are more than just mildly concerned. It was learned Sunday that one team removed him from its draft board because each succeeding concussion increases recovery time and the risk to player and team.
It was Abbrederis' medical concerns, slight stature and lack of strength that dropped him to the final pick of the fifth round as the 23rd wideout selected.
Though not particularly fast, quick or explosive, Abbrederis just knows how to get open. He put on a route-running clinic against Ohio State's Bradley Roby. He has superb hands. His Wonderlic score of 32 was the best among the top 25 wide receivers.
Scout after scout expressed admiration for Abbrederis. They just wish his durability record was better and he figured more prominently on special teams.
Demetri Goodson, CB, Baylor (1, 4): The class of cornerbacks went downhill fast after the top five went off the board. As the 29th corner selected, Goodson possesses respectable talent.
Yes, he's a project, and a medical risk, too. He played only three years of college football, and two of those seasons were cut short by major ankle and arm injuries.
Goodson, however, has nice size (5-11, 196), adequate speed (4.52) and unbelievable ball skills honed as the starting point guard for a top-25 basketball school (Gonzaga).
He'll be 25 in June. That's not ideal.
But position coach Joe Whitt made a corner out of Sam Shields, a wide receiver most of his collegiate career. One can envision a scenario in which Goodson reacts well to Whitt's tough style of coaching and blossoms at some point.
This is a unique athlete. He's worth a shot.
Jeff Janis, WR, Saginaw Valley State (1, 2): He's Billy Schroeder, the Sheboygan native who, at 6-2 and 200, ran 4.45 and had a 42-inch vertical jump coming from a one-year football career at UW-La Crosse as the Packers' sixth-round draft choice in 1994.
Actually, Janis (6-3, 217, 4.42) is bigger than Schroeder and light years more polished. Still, he needs much more refinement beating press coverage, separating at the break point and doing the little things.
Janis is faster than Jordy Nelson (6-2½, 218, 4.54) was coming out. However, he isn't nearly as loose in the hips or as agile as Nelson.
For now, Janis' forte is running deep. If he can be taught to use his big body on basketball-type routes, he could have a career.
...
Looks like Packers draft sucks. Dammit.
I wish we had beat guys like Biggs, Hoge, Zaidman or Pompeii. They'd grade the Packers draftees as all HoFers.
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