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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 2:48 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Hussra wrote:
The teams that make the most use of advanced stats in the NBA (Houston) and MLB (Oakland) typically over-perform in the regular season but can't win in the playoffs. They're like a blackjack player relentlessly heeding a conservative martingale strategy and so they never lose big but never win big either?

The Red Sox used advanced stats in winning two World Series


And before you post the Manny/Ortiz thing, just remember that Ortiz was signed mostly because of his ability to get on base.


Anyway, advanced stats help. They are not magic beans though.


That's great, instead in turned into a giant roid monster that hit a shitload of HR's in a hitter friendly park. If he stays in the "he gets on base!" mold than the Red Sox don't win those titles.


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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 2:49 pm 
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SomeGuy wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Hussra wrote:
The teams that make the most use of advanced stats in the NBA (Houston) and MLB (Oakland) typically over-perform in the regular season but can't win in the playoffs. They're like a blackjack player relentlessly heeding a conservative martingale strategy and so they never lose big but never win big either?

The Red Sox used advanced stats in winning two World Series


And before you post the Manny/Ortiz thing, just remember that Ortiz was signed mostly because of his ability to get on base.


Anyway, advanced stats help. They are not magic beans though.


That's great, instead in turned into a giant roid monster that hit a shitload of HR's in a hitter friendly park. If he stays in the "he gets on base!" mold than the Red Sox don't win those titles.

Missing the point.

He was signed because of advanced stats. And he never stopped being a huge on base guy.

Every other team could have signed him, but they didnt.

Dont be afraid of advanced stats and dont just take the opposite side of Bernstein every time. He's mistakenly right some of the time.


Last edited by rogers park bryan on Tue May 06, 2014 2:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 2:50 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Hussra wrote:
The teams that make the most use of advanced stats in the NBA (Houston) and MLB (Oakland) typically over-perform in the regular season but can't win in the playoffs. They're like a blackjack player relentlessly heeding a conservative martingale strategy and so they never lose big but never win big either?

The Red Sox used advanced stats in winning two World Series


And before you post the Manny/Ortiz thing, just remember that Ortiz was signed mostly because of his ability to get on base.


Anyway, advanced stats help. They are not magic beans though.


Ortiz wasn't signed because his slugging with the cards the previous fall won them a series?

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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 2:52 pm 
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pittmike wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Hussra wrote:
The teams that make the most use of advanced stats in the NBA (Houston) and MLB (Oakland) typically over-perform in the regular season but can't win in the playoffs. They're like a blackjack player relentlessly heeding a conservative martingale strategy and so they never lose big but never win big either?

The Red Sox used advanced stats in winning two World Series


And before you post the Manny/Ortiz thing, just remember that Ortiz was signed mostly because of his ability to get on base.


Anyway, advanced stats help. They are not magic beans though.


Ortiz wasn't signed because his slugging with the cards the previous fall won them a series?

What? No, you're thinking of someone else



BTW,


The Twins released Ortiz after the season, after finding themselves unable to find a team willing to trade for him


Bet the Yankees wish they would have signed him.


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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 2:53 pm 
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pittmike wrote:
Ortiz wasn't signed because his slugging with the cards the previous fall won them a series?

Huh?

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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 2:57 pm 
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Ortiz was a monster for St. Louis.

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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 2:58 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
SomeGuy wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Hussra wrote:
The teams that make the most use of advanced stats in the NBA (Houston) and MLB (Oakland) typically over-perform in the regular season but can't win in the playoffs. They're like a blackjack player relentlessly heeding a conservative martingale strategy and so they never lose big but never win big either?

The Red Sox used advanced stats in winning two World Series


And before you post the Manny/Ortiz thing, just remember that Ortiz was signed mostly because of his ability to get on base.


Anyway, advanced stats help. They are not magic beans though.


That's great, instead in turned into a giant roid monster that hit a shitload of HR's in a hitter friendly park. If he stays in the "he gets on base!" mold than the Red Sox don't win those titles.

Missing the point.

He was signed because of advanced stats. And he never stopped being a huge on base guy.

Every other team could have signed him, but they didnt.

Dont be afraid of advanced stats and dont just take the opposite side of Bernstein every time. He's mistakenly right some of the time.


Hey ,dipshit, I'm not "afraid" of advanced stats as they are useful so settle your shit down and don't talk SomeGuy without knowing what SomeGuy thinks.

That said, you're missing the point, Ortiz was targeted because of his on base numbers, you admitted that. Advanced stats didn't have him hitting a shit ton of HR's and RBI's. Advanced stats had him getting on base, that's why the Red Sox acquired him. Like I said, if Ortiz stayed as the on base guy the Red Sox signed him for they don't win those titles.

Every other team didn't sign him because scouting and ADVANCED STATS didn't project him to be a HR/RBI beast machine. No one saw that.


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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 2:59 pm 
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pittmike wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Hussra wrote:
The teams that make the most use of advanced stats in the NBA (Houston) and MLB (Oakland) typically over-perform in the regular season but can't win in the playoffs. They're like a blackjack player relentlessly heeding a conservative martingale strategy and so they never lose big but never win big either?

The Red Sox used advanced stats in winning two World Series


And before you post the Manny/Ortiz thing, just remember that Ortiz was signed mostly because of his ability to get on base.


Anyway, advanced stats help. They are not magic beans though.


Ortiz wasn't signed because his slugging with the cards the previous fall won them a series?

you are confusing me.

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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 2:59 pm 
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redskingreg wrote:
Ortiz was a monster for St. Louis.

No, sorry. Could not have happened. Theo invented steroids and the only two guys to use them were Manny and Ortiz.


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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 2:59 pm 
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Someguy, I am disappointed you have come in to join the sheep.

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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 3:01 pm 
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Hawg Ass wrote:
Someguy, I am disappointed you have come in to join the sheep.


Sheep of what? What flock? SomeGuy PTFB's the B&B show after transition, actually, I stuck around to hear BernSTINE scream "THAT'S RACIST!"

But whatever.


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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 3:01 pm 
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That's right, Bill James consults for/works in the Red Sox front office. So roster-building for those world series defintely benefited from sabermetrics.

Wonder to what extent sabermetrics filtered/filters down to in-game tactics. In the NBA, Houston does a lot of this. I think Miami does too. Thibs probably lives and breathes gameday matchups and situational advantages from a defensive POV. Unless Mark Jackson was working with his own stats and model, he never seemed to have the right guy in the right place with the ball at the end of games. Same for Vinny Del Negro. Who calls end-of-game isolation plays for Jarrett Jack? Cleveland doesn't even let Jarrett Jack on the court at the end of games.

Seems like an MLB manager would have to be off-his-rocker not to take advantage of all the stats available in 2014. No reason to ever have a defender out of position or to throw a hitter the wrong pitch at the wrong time. Unless you're Jim Leyland and the hitter's David Ortiz and it's the ALCS with bases juiced and you're 4 outs from a 2-0 lead in the series. Ortiz knocked Lelyand right out of baseball with that shot.


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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 3:04 pm 
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pittmike wrote:

Ortiz wasn't signed because his slugging with the cards the previous fall won them a series?


is it 420 already? Image


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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 3:05 pm 
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The mystery is why Minnesota released Ortiz in the first place. Arb eligible and they were THAT cheap? could be. Or something else....

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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 3:05 pm 
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SomeGuy wrote:

Hey ,dipshit, I'm not "afraid" of advanced stats as they are useful so settle your shit down and don't talk SomeGuy without knowing what SomeGuy thinks.

Well then dont post like a lunatic who only lives to disagree with Bernstein. I judge from your crazy posts. I know you're smarter than that. But at some point you decided to just be ANTI BERNSTEIN GUY

SomeGuy wrote:
That said, you're missing the point, Ortiz was targeted because of his on base numbers, you admitted that. Advanced stats didn't have him hitting a shit ton of HR's and RBI's. Advanced stats had him getting on base, that's why the Red Sox acquired him. Like I said, if Ortiz stayed as the on base guy the Red Sox signed him for they don't win those titles.

Ortiz was targeted because he was undervalued. He hit 20 homeruns in Minnesota the last year in 125 games. The power didnt come out of nowhere. And signing a lefty when you play in a park with a short RF porch is SMART. Its not something to put down the GM who signed him.

Also, OBP is a bigger factor for SABR guys than Slugging.


SomeGuy wrote:
Every other team didn't sign him because scouting and ADVANCED STATS didn't project him to be a HR/RBI beast machine. No one saw that.

Every other team didnt sign him because they didnt know he could be great. Epstein did because he saw the value of such a high OBP guy. And he was right.

You think a 1B with 20 homers in 120 games with a traditionally high OBP would be outright released in today's game? No, they wouldnt.

And Why? because the rest of the league caught up


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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 3:10 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:

Well then dont post like a lunatic who only lives to disagree with Bernstein. I judge from your crazy posts. I know you're smarter than that. But at some point you decided to just be ANTI BERNSTEIN GUY


Now you're just being a fucking idiot who is talking out of his ass.

You need to work on comprehension and the fact that just because someone disagrees with BernSTINE/YOU (one in the same) doesn't make them an "ANTI BERNSTINE GUY."

You made incorrect assumptions about my post and my stance on ADVANCED STATS and you got called it.

Now move along.


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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 3:17 pm 
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Hatchetman wrote:
The mystery is why Minnesota released Ortiz in the first place. Arb eligible and they were THAT cheap? could be. Or something else....


Twins let him walk after a season in which he tripled his HR output in the 2nd half and then failed a test for PEDs the next season in Boston?
Image


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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 3:20 pm 
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SomeGuy,

RPB has been doing fantastic Grimace work. Cut him some slack.

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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 3:21 pm 
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SomeGuy wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:

Well then dont post like a lunatic who only lives to disagree with Bernstein. I judge from your crazy posts. I know you're smarter than that. But at some point you decided to just be ANTI BERNSTEIN GUY


Now you're just being a fucking idiot who is talking out of his ass.

SOMEGUY IS GETTING UPSET!


No, Im being accurate and you know it.

What percentage of your posts are all caps sarcastic quotes of Bernstein? Should we check or do you want to just admit that you do that a good portion of the time?


SomeGuy wrote:
Now move along.

:lol: Nah, think Ill keep posting

Sorry that Theo once made a good move and you're upset about it. Also sorry that you dont really understand the stats you're talking about.

BTW, Bill Mueller is another high opb guy that Theo signed and helped win a WS. Probably roids though


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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 3:25 pm 
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SomeGuy wrote:
Hawg Ass wrote:
Someguy, I am disappointed you have come in to join the sheep.


Sheep of what? What flock? SomeGuy PTFB's the B&B show after transition, actually, I stuck around to hear BernSTINE scream "THAT'S RACIST!"

But whatever.

Ok, you are back in my good graces.

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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 3:29 pm 
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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 3:31 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
SomeGuy wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:

Well then dont post like a lunatic who only lives to disagree with Bernstein. I judge from your crazy posts. I know you're smarter than that. But at some point you decided to just be ANTI BERNSTEIN GUY


Now you're just being a fucking idiot who is talking out of his ass.

SOMEGUY IS GETTING UPSET!


No, Im being accurate and you know it.

What percentage of your posts are all caps sarcastic quotes of Bernstein? Should we check or do you want to just admit that you do that a good portion of the time?


SomeGuy wrote:
Now move along.

:lol: Nah, think Ill keep posting

Sorry that Theo once made a good move and you're upset about it. Also sorry that you dont really understand the stats you're talking about.

BTW, Bill Mueller is another high opb guy that Theo signed and helped win a WS. Probably roids though

RPB IS BEING A DOUCHE!

Anyways, instead of reading my quips about BernSTINE being an idioy maybe you could actually uae your brain and read what I posted in our present conversation. The one where I agreed with you about advanced stats but disagreed with you about Ortiz.

Yes, I agreed with your general point about advqnced metrics and actually share BernSTINES take on them.

Yet here you are refusing to acknowledge any of these truth's, instead you reference past posts and otger garbage.

You're going to quickly find yourself saying something you can't take back.

That's a scary place for you to be.


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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 3:37 pm 
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Hussra wrote:
Image

:lol:

SomeGuy just got destroyed.

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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 3:42 pm 
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But where's the 13796th post?

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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 3:42 pm 
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Hussra wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
The mystery is why Minnesota released Ortiz in the first place. Arb eligible and they were THAT cheap? could be. Or something else....


Twins let him walk after a season in which he tripled his HR output in the 2nd half and then failed a test for PEDs the next season in Boston?
Image


Yeah, I don't think Minnesota was really sold on his power as a first baseman or DH. Steroids aside, I don't think playing in Fenway hurt his slugging. And Minnesota is a team that loves fundamentals. Ortiz made Abreu look like J.T. Snow over at first.

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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 3:44 pm 
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Ya know I really shouldnt be criticizing anyones posting patterns. I shouldn't assume to know peoples thoughts either (though I formulated the opinion ased on your many posts seemingly marginalizing advanced stats)

We disagree on the Ortiz signing. So be it.


But when you do your anti Bernstein thing I usually think "id like his actual thoughts on this"


Anyway, I think we can all agree that Ortiz was waay underrated as a Cardinal


Last edited by rogers park bryan on Tue May 06, 2014 3:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 3:45 pm 
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SomeGuy hasn't posted in this thread since Hussra knocked him out after he finished his last attempt at rpb.

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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 3:52 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Hussra wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
The mystery is why Minnesota released Ortiz in the first place. Arb eligible and they were THAT cheap? could be. Or something else....


Twins let him walk after a season in which he tripled his HR output in the 2nd half and then failed a test for PEDs the next season in Boston?
Image


Yeah, I don't think Minnesota was really sold on his power as a first baseman or DH. Steroids aside, I don't think playing in Fenway hurt his slugging. And Minnesota is a team that loves fundamentals. Ortiz made Abreu look like J.T. Snow over at first.

Also remember the Twins were in danger of being contracted at the time and Ortiz had shown he was going to be a DH primarily. They didnt (and still dont) have the money to pay a guy to just DH


But no one willing to trade for him is weird


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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 3:57 pm 
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Hatchetman wrote:
The mystery is why Minnesota released Ortiz in the first place. Arb eligible and they were THAT cheap? could be. Or something else....

Wasn't that right around the time that Doug Mankantfuckingspellhisnamevitch was coming up?


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PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 4:04 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
SomeGuy hasn't posted in this thread since Hussra knocked him out after he finished his last attempt at rpb.


#rekt

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