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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:18 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
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and their top prospects were the likes of Chris Archer, Brett Jackson, Trey McNutt, Hak-Ju Lee, Josh Vitters, Chris Carpenter, Matt Szczur, Hayden Simpson, Rafael Dolis and Brandon Guyer.



I realize you may be biased, but do you really not remember many of those guys who are now dismissed like pieces of shit being discussed in the same terms as Bryant, Baez, and Russell are currently? One of the Cub "realists" compared Brett Jackson to Mike Trout, for God's sake!


Exaggeration. Jackson maybe. But, only Cubs touted like these guys recently would be Patterson, Pie, Prior, those types. I wasn't checking minor league updates daily on Brandon Guyer. Now, the Cubs have 3 guys like that and maybe 4 with Schwarber starting with 3.000 OPSs.

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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:21 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
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and their top prospects were the likes of Chris Archer, Brett Jackson, Trey McNutt, Hak-Ju Lee, Josh Vitters, Chris Carpenter, Matt Szczur, Hayden Simpson, Rafael Dolis and Brandon Guyer.



I realize you may be biased, but do you really not remember many of those guys who are now dismissed like pieces of shit being discussed in the same terms as Bryant, Baez, and Russell are currently? One of the Cub "realists" compared Brett Jackson to Mike Trout, for God's sake!


Exaggeration. Jackson maybe. But, only Cubs touted like these guys recently would be Patterson, Pie, Prior, those types. I wasn't checking minor league updates daily on Brandon Guyer. Now, the Cubs have 3 guys like that and maybe 4 with Schwarber starting with 3.000 OPSs.



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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:21 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
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and their top prospects were the likes of Chris Archer, Brett Jackson, Trey McNutt, Hak-Ju Lee, Josh Vitters, Chris Carpenter, Matt Szczur, Hayden Simpson, Rafael Dolis and Brandon Guyer.



I realize you may be biased, but do you really not remember many of those guys who are now dismissed like pieces of shit being discussed in the same terms as Bryant, Baez, and Russell are currently? One of the Cub "realists" compared Brett Jackson to Mike Trout, for God's sake!


Exaggeration. Jackson maybe. But, only Cubs touted like these guys recently would be Patterson, Pie, Prior, those types. I wasn't checking minor league updates daily on Brandon Guyer. Now, the Cubs have 3 guys like that and maybe 4 with Schwarber starting with 3.000 OPSs.



I would say Jackson, Vitters, Archer, McNutt, and Lee were all viewed as elite prospects by many Cub fans.

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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:22 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
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and their top prospects were the likes of Chris Archer, Brett Jackson, Trey McNutt, Hak-Ju Lee, Josh Vitters, Chris Carpenter, Matt Szczur, Hayden Simpson, Rafael Dolis and Brandon Guyer.



I realize you may be biased, but do you really not remember many of those guys who are now dismissed like pieces of shit being discussed in the same terms as Bryant, Baez, and Russell are currently? One of the Cub "realists" compared Brett Jackson to Mike Trout, for God's sake!


Jackson and Vitters were supposed to be the real deals. What Epstein has sold me on is that they have improved their scouting and player development. Meaning, they are drafting better and then developing better than what was done before he got here. I have no clue if that will in fact make a difference because none of his guys are at the major league level (Rizzo maybe?). But I would say the Bryant pick looks real solid. And the fact that independent organizations are rating the Cubs at the top is why I am optimistic. If the majority of these guys fall flat on their faces like Felix Pie and Corey Patterson, well then all hope is lost.

From the sound of things, Cubs fans around here want the Hendry model back. So what, we can go on booing Soriano and Sosa, call ARam lazy, throw Milton Bradley out in his first month here along with a lot of other really questionable spending decisions? Yes, the Cubs won a lot of regular season games, but it was not a sustainable long term model. More than one way to skin a cat, and I choose this way.

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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:22 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
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and their top prospects were the likes of Chris Archer, Brett Jackson, Trey McNutt, Hak-Ju Lee, Josh Vitters, Chris Carpenter, Matt Szczur, Hayden Simpson, Rafael Dolis and Brandon Guyer.



I realize you may be biased, but do you really not remember many of those guys who are now dismissed like pieces of shit being discussed in the same terms as Bryant, Baez, and Russell are currently? One of the Cub "realists" compared Brett Jackson to Mike Trout, for God's sake!

Archer is a real good MLB pitcher. Jackson was kind of touted. That's about it.

Vitters was questioned since day one because he was drafted high. I heard some good things about McNutt.

Simpson? Cmon


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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:24 pm 
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:lol: no one touted Hayden Simpson.

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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:24 pm 
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There was McNutt love....still hope that Mickey D's will introduce McNutts.

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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:25 pm 
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There's a difference between elite prospects and promising. Jackson and Vitters were borderline elite but I don't think they were "can't miss" type guys.

I'd put Patterson, Pie, Prior, Bryant, Baez, and (from what I've read to this point of Russell) Russell as "can't miss"-level prospects. Cubs have had 1 or 2 of those types per decade at best. Now they have 3, possibly 4, plus Alcantara (who should be considered prime prospect) at once. You can be optimistic that things work out in better fashion now than when all the eggs are in Corey Patterson's basket.

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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:26 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
There's a difference between elite prospects and promising. Jackson and Vitters were borderline elite but I don't think they were "can't miss" type guys.

I'd put Patterson, Pie, Prior, Bryant, Baez, and (from what I've read to this point of Russell) Russell as "can't miss"-level prospects. Cubs have had 1 or 2 of those types per decade at best. Now they have 3, possibly 4, plus Alcantara (who should be considered prime prospect) at once. You can be optimistic that things work out in better fashion now than when all the eggs are in Corey Patterson's basket.

No, the correct answer is

They will all be busts and if one isnt, the Cubs will find some way to fuck him up, because the Cubs are the Cubs. You should quit following them.


That is the only correct answer.


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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:27 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
There's a difference between elite prospects and promising. Jackson and Vitters were borderline elite but I don't think they were "can't miss" type guys.

I'd put Patterson, Pie, Prior, Bryant, Baez, and (from what I've read to this point of Russell) Russell as "can't miss"-level prospects. Cubs have had 1 or 2 of those types per decade at best. Now they have 3, possibly 4, plus Alcantara (who should be considered prime prospect) at once. You can be optimistic that things work out in better fashion now than when all the eggs are in Corey Patterson's basket.


I think Patterson could have been a solid major leaguer but the Cubs developed him poorly. He was brought up too early and then asked to swing for the fences. Piersol got fired for his comments to that effect.

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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:29 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
What Epstein has sold me on is that they have improved their scouting and player development. Meaning, they are drafting better and then developing better than what was done before he got here.


Even the guys at Baseball America and Prospectus said the way they scouted has changed. They admitted that guys like Pie and Patterson were too "toolsy" and wouldn't be ranked as high in their new scouting.


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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:32 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
I'd put Patterson, Pie, Prior, as "can't miss"-level prospects.


How many misses does it take before you stop being a "realist"? :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:32 pm 
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I have also been accused of being too toolsy.

This is a fun argument. However, I'm on vacation this week and, unlike Baby McNown, I don't plan to spend much of it here. Taking the kids to see Godzilla (the real one on my island, not the movie) in a few minutes.

Carry on the good fight, Cub Realists! I look forward to reading it on the beach later this week.

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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:33 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
I'd put Patterson, Pie, Prior, as "can't miss"-level prospects.


How many misses does it take before you stop being a "realist"? :lol:


Ex post facto.

It cannot be disputed that those individuals were rated as can't miss at the time. My point still stands. The odds increase with more numbers.

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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:34 pm 
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It's a sad day when I am agreeing with Rozner and Bernsie against the CSFMB collective. Oh well.

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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:35 pm 
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What's the true hit % on top 10 prospects? Maybe 50%?
Top 20 prospects? 25%?

I think if half these guys pan out the Cubs will have done very well for themselves.

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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:38 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
It's a sad day when I am agreeing with Rozner and Bernsie against the CSFMB collective. Oh well.


Resistance is futile.


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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:41 pm 
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Hatchetman wrote:
What's the true hit % on top 10 prospects? Maybe 50%?
Top 20 prospects? 25%?

I think if half these guys pan out the Cubs will have done very well for themselves.



"Summary

I threw a lot of graphs out there, but the biggest takeaway is the second one: nearly 80% of the top 100 players in recent seasons were ranked in the top 100 by Baseball America. Of all the talk about failure rates (12% of prospects don't even get to the majors, only 69% fail to put up a career WAR over 10), the fine folks at BA are really good at finding the top players."

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/3/4386214/how-well-does-the-baseball-america-prospect-top-100-estimate-the-top

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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:47 pm 
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denisdman wrote:


That is exactly the opposite of what I want to know. Obviously the great MLB players were once likely top prospects. Sabergenius at work.

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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:50 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
What's the true hit % on top 10 prospects? Maybe 50%?
Top 20 prospects? 25%?

I think if half these guys pan out the Cubs will have done very well for themselves.



"Summary

I threw a lot of graphs out there, but the biggest takeaway is the second one: nearly 80% of the top 100 players in recent seasons were ranked in the top 100 by Baseball America. Of all the talk about failure rates (12% of prospects don't even get to the majors, only 69% fail to put up a career WAR over 10), the fine folks at BA are really good at finding the top players."

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/3/4386214/how-well-does-the-baseball-america-prospect-top-100-estimate-the-top



I have your back Denis. As far as Cub fans go you are getting a bad rap. You are trying to be analytical/sensible right or wrong. You have an opinion. No one should be thinking arrogance or unrealistic with you pal.

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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:52 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
I'd put Patterson, Pie, Prior, as "can't miss"-level prospects.


How many misses does it take before you stop being a "realist"? :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:55 pm 
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Hatchetman wrote:
denisdman wrote:


That is exactly the opposite of what I want to know. Obviously the great MLB players were once likely top prospects. Sabergenius at work.

:lol:


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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 1:03 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 1:04 pm 
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That was a good Baldwin tribute by Affleck


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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 1:12 pm 
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Can someone just put a damn Cubs hat on Bernstein already? My goodness!

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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 1:19 pm 
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spmack wrote:
Can someone just put a damn Cubs hat on Bernstein already? My goodness!

Ironically all the YELLING and SPELLING. OUT. WORDS. and freaking out over Theo will cease if Theo succeeds and wins a World Series at which point it will be time for quiet reflection


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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 1:20 pm 
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Dan bernstein-cubs/bulls water carrier.


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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 1:23 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 1:24 pm 
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they just give him a ladies portion up there.

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 Post subject: Re: 7/7: 7
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 1:26 pm 
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Is Dan going to these great lengths to praise Theo if his last name is not Epstein?

This reminds me of 1988 when my roommate at college, who was Greek, suddenly became VERY "politically active" when Dukakis won the Democratic nomination for President.


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