I'm not making excuses for Green Bay. I don't need to. They won the division. Just explaining why I think it's false to suggest the teams were basically equal.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

You are what your record says you are. If you want to say an 8-7-1 team isn't in the same ballpark as an 8-8 team, go ahead. They don't base your record on your predicted 22 starters. In the NFL the odds are your starting QB is going down at some point so you can't just throw those games out. We all can't have Josh McCown waiting in the wings.

This is not really true.

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The Bulls haven't done anything wrong, and they're not going to do anything wrong.

You're talking about judging what a team did last year. I'm talking about predicting future performance. It's hard to argue that the Packers were much better than the Bears last year. If Rodgers doesn't miss half of next season, it's easy to see how Green Bay will be significantly better next year.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

Do they still think Marshall sucks?

Although it's kind of the point of sports and what we do, I think it's hard to be very predictive of the upcoming season at this point in time.

Nevermind. My mistake.

_________________
The Bulls haven't done anything wrong, and they're not going to do anything wrong.

I think most things are very difficult to predict. I think it's safe to say GB, NE, and Denver will all make the playoffs barring an injury to their QB. Top 3 QBs very rarely seem to miss the playoffs.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

NE and Denver, yes. The Pack is similar to the Bears. Their defense was horrendous last year, as you know.

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Of course it was. It will be bad again this year, which is why they won't win the SB. But just having Rodgers for 15 or 16 games all but ensures them a playoff spot, and is the HUGE difference between them and the Bears. And I don't think New England and Denver's defense will be particularly good either.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

Agree that's the big difference between them and the Bears, but you can't pencil the Pack into the playoffs before the season. Football is too weird to do that for any team other than maybe the Patriots, who have an organization and QB that are amazingly consistent.

I do believe Rodgers is currently the best QB in the game, but the Pack hasn't capitalized on his prime years like they should have to this point. Even with injuries, they should dominate the North every year, but they've been surprisingly inconsistent during his tenure.

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How many times has Green Bay missed the playoffs with Rodgers? Maybe you can't etch them in stone in the playoffs, but of course you can pencil them in. If Rodgers starts all 16 games Green Bay is going to the playoffs. We both know this. And they already won a Super Bowl. I don't think it's fair at all to call them underachieving.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

They shouldn't just make the playoffs every year. With Rodgers, they should be like the Pats or the Manning-led Colts... consistent juggernauts who practically always get a 1st round bye.

We know where this is going, though, so let's get to it. Want to repeat our bet from last year?

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Really? Of course.




Whiskey or vodka tonight?

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

You know I don't drink vodka.

_________________

2008: Rodgers had a decent inaugural season and the team sucked balls. I was in Basic Training/AIT so I know almost nothing about this season
2009: Rodgers was in his 2nd year and dragged a shitty team to the playoffs and played great and lost in a shootout in which he fucked up and fumbled at the end.
2010: Won the SB. 'Nuff said.
2011: Went 15-1 and lost to a team who went on to win the SB
2012: 11-5, won division, lost to a superior SF team
2013: started 5-2, broke collarbone, finished 8-7-1 and lost to a better SF team again in a much closer game.


Again, I don't think it's fair to look at these six seasons and say the team has underachieved. I think Brady's early decade Pats are spoiling your expectations. Rodgers and the Pack have done just fine over the past six years. They could obviously have done better, and it's insanely stupid that Dom Capers is still employed, but it takes a pretty biased eye to look and that and say it's underachieving. If Rodgers finished his career with just that SB, then I will agree with you.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

I look at the Packers like the St. Louis Cardinals. They're in the playoffs until they prove otherwise.

People are sleeping on the Lions. Assuming they have even a reasonably competent NFL coach, they will be tough. Huge talent over there with a somewhat easier schedule.

_________________
Soccer 1,2,3
Spanish Honor Society 1,2,3,4
Forensics 1,2,3,4

"Smiles with Nostrils"

"...no Hmong, go find some blacks"

They don't. They have Jim Caldwell. I can't even express the degree to which I am not worried about Detroit, and Bears fans shouldn't be either.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

That Packers recent history is better than I thought. Rodgers' injuries throw me off. It always seems like they're struggling going into the playoffs and then get very dangerous, but maybe that's just how I remember it.

They're still not an automatic for the playoffs though.

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Nobody is. But they've made it five years in a row and I think it's fair to say they're as automatic as any team in the league is.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

I was thinking more coordinatorish. If Lombardi (no relation) can re=create some Saints magic, they can score like 27 a game.

_________________
Soccer 1,2,3
Spanish Honor Society 1,2,3,4
Forensics 1,2,3,4

"Smiles with Nostrils"

"...no Hmong, go find some blacks"

yeah, I'll go ahead and disagree with all that. Jim is about to get "smarter" this season. The Lions can and should win that division.

_________________
Ба́бушка гада́ла, да на́двое сказа́ла—то ли до́ждик, то ли снег, то ли бу́дет, то ли нет.

Bet them then. You'll get pretty great value for a team that should win the division anyway.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

Good point. I'm getting 8-1/2 as an over under on wins and +400 to win the division (Pack is -110 and Bears are +250). Both are awfully good bets.

_________________
Soccer 1,2,3
Spanish Honor Society 1,2,3,4
Forensics 1,2,3,4

"Smiles with Nostrils"

"...no Hmong, go find some blacks"

*sigh* Care for yet another avatar bet? I'd like to be wrong at least once.

_________________
Ба́бушка гада́ла, да на́двое сказа́ла—то ли до́ждик, то ли снег, то ли бу́дет, то ли нет.

I got Bears +275 to win the division. They are +1,000 to win the NFC.

There are some interesting NBA futures too. The Mavs are +5,000 to win the title. NBA fans, doesn't that seem like a value? They have the same odds as the Knicks.

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Damn. Shots fired at FarveFan.

He can't get no relief!

It's decent value, I guess, but the Mavs are not winning the NBA title next year. It'd be throwing money away.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

the last one or two seemed rather logical to me. This one is a stretch but I really think the Lions are due.

_________________
Ба́бушка гада́ла, да на́двое сказа́ла—то ли до́ждик, то ли снег, то ли бу́дет, то ли нет.