This weekly wagering contest will reward the best football prognosticator with a $100 gift certificate from a meat/steak company. New guys can still join in any time and you don't have to make a pick every week. You can post your plays any time, but they must be posted before a game you are playing kicks off. You must make your picks in this thread and you must provide at least one reason for each pick. Minimum 50 picks to qualify by the end of the contest.

..............................Last Week..........Season.........%
buryman....................1-0.....................2-0...........100
Mitch Cumstein...........4-1-2................11-5-4........69
Mustang Rob...............2-0....................4-2...........67
Boilermaker Rick.........3-2....................8-5...........62
donspiracy..................2-3....................9-9...........50
Nas............................3-4-1................7-7-1.........50
Hawkeye Vince............4-5..................8-10-1........44
good dolphin...............2-0....................7-9...........44
reents........................3-5-1...............16-21-4.......43
Irish Boy....................2-7-1...............16-21-3.......43
schmitty1211..............1-3-1................5-7-2..........42
FarveFan....................2-4-1...............6-10-1.........38
BD.............................0-0....................2-4...........33
muman89..................2-4-1................4-9-1..........31
Chus.........................2-5-1...............12-29-3.......29
chuckle nuts...............0-0...................1-3............25
Darren-Tinley Park......0-2.................3-10-1.........23
hootmon....................0-0..................1-7-1..........13
newper......................0-0..................0-2-1...........0
Coasttocoast..............0-0...................0-2.............0
Bud Dude..................0-0....................0-1.............0


Let me know if any of the totals are incorrect. Thank you.

_________________
CSFMB: Home of the small minded

Denver +11 at Indy (5dimes) I think there's value in this number, and it may set up a middling opportunity later on. At the very least, Indy seems to not especially like covering big spreads, so I'll follow the trend. Denver might be undervalued a bit after the Jacksonville loss as well.

Green Bay -1 at Minnesota (5Dimes) Seems to good to be true, but maybe it isn't. Bodog already has it listed at -3, and I think that's where it will settle later in the week. We'll see.

Minnesota +3 vs. Green Bay (bodog) It's still at +3, and I don't see it moving to 3.5 if it hasn't already. I'll go ahead and lock this one in as well. Go Green Bay by 2!

Arizona +6 vs. Pittsburgh (CRIS) I think Arizona hangs close in most of their games this year, especially at home.

Illinois +3 vs. Penn State: Strict homerism and anti-public sentiment on my part. Almost 90% of the money is going on Penn St. Books win money somehow, and it's at least on part on games like this. Look for the Illini to surprise on Saturday

Chicago/Detroit OVER 44.5 Vasher and Tillman are out, so who is covering whom? Detroit might do this alone- Chicago D is overvalued. Both teams score 27+ points.

Detroit OVER 21.5 (Bodog) Kevin Payne is starting today. That's not good.

Cincy +7.5 vs. New England (ABC) At some point, betting against NE will be profitable. Cincy gets the Pats at home on Monday night, with their back up against the wall. Let's hope they pull through.

NE/Cincy UNDER 54.5 explained in post below.

St. Louis + 14 vs. Dallas (5Dimes) Dallas's defense still sucks, and while St. Louis hasn't been lighting the world on fire, they'll also be taking to the air with Steven Jackson out.

Bucs +3 vs. Carolina I don't think that the football universe has yet adjusted to the fact that the Bucaneers are the best team in the NFC south. That doesn't mean all that much, but it does mean they are better than the Panthers.

OAK/MIA UNDER 40.5 (CRIS) Two decent defenses and bad offenses, plus there's a weather front moving through. If it's storming down there, no one's putting up any points.

BAL/CLE OVER 40 (5Dimes) The Baltimore defense isn't quite what people think it is, and Cleveland can put points on the board. Plus, everyone knows about Cleveland's defense.

_________________
Fire Phil Emery

Iowa -11 vs. Indiana
The Hawkeyes remember what happened last year. IU is not good.

Penn State -3 vs. Illinois
The Illini are improving, but Penn State is too strong.

Minnesota +23.5 vs. Ohio State
Minnesota gets within 3 td's in garbage time. The offense is good.

Michigan -16.5 vs. Northwestern
Mike Hart has another big day.

West Virginia -7 vs. South Florida
High powered offense vs. an up and coming South Florida team. In the end, West Virginia is too strong.

Edited for incorrect +/- signs.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I need to step it up this week. Here goes nothing..

Chicago -2.5 over Detroit

After going 1-3 in my college games I need a strong showing today. I think the Bears struggle with the Lions but win the game in the 4th quarter 27-24.

Oakland +4.5 over Miami

This Oakland team is better than I have given them credit for, and I think they win this game, plus Miami shouldnt be favored by 4.5 over any team in the league.

Green Bay -1 over Minnesota
GB/MINN UNDER 38

Im worried about them going to the Metrodome, and this is so obvious Im a bit worried, but its too easy to not take. Favre will struggle a bit as usual in the Metrodome, and the Vikings have a great run D. I see the Packers winning 16-13.

Tampa Bay +3 over Carolina

Carolina is not a great team, Tampa Bay might be the most underrated team in the NFL right now. I can see them winning 10 games.

Seattle -1 over San Francisco

Seattle is way better than San Fran. This might be close but Seattle wins it.

Kansas City +11.5 over San Diego

KC doesnt suck as much as we thought, SD just isnt good enough to cover this spread, I wouldnt be surprised if this is a 3 point game.

Denver + 11 over Indy.

Denver sucks and wont win, but Indy hates covering spreads for some reason. Indy dominates the whole game and wins by 4.

New England -6.5 over Cincinatti

Bengals defense sucks, their offense wont score more than 24, they lose by at least 10.

NYJ -3.5 over Buffalo
NYJ/BUFF OVER 37.5

The Jets arent great but I think Buffalo has like 80% of their starters injured. Im not sure this one will ever get closer than 14 once the Jets start scoring. Buffalo has maybe the worst defense in the league and the Jets defense is pretty weak also.

Penn State -3 over Illini

Im going to try picking college games now to change my luck. I think Illini are good, not this good, and Penn St, cant afford to lose to Illinois. Penn St. by 6.

Michigan +16.5 over Northwestern
Michigan is back and Mike Hart is one of my new favorite college football players in the country. how can you not like this kid?

Virginia Tech -18 over North Carolina

This seems like the type of easy game that VY usually dominates. I think they easily cover.

Notre Dame +22 over Purdue

Purdue no doubt wins this game, but ND can stay within 3 TDs, especially considering they are off to their worst start in their 119 year history and they desperately need a win.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

Jets over Bills by more than 3.5. (Bodog) Bills with a quarterback no one has heard of and Bills defense has been beaten bad.

45 points between the Bears and Lions is a bit too low for me to pass up. I'll take the over because Lions will score some points but for the first week in awhile Bears get close to 25-30 points.

In need of a win, I'm back picking

Boise State -11

More points than I would like to give up, but I'll go for it anyhow. In the matchup tonight, I see Boise State controlling the rushing effort of Southern Miss. This should force Southern Miss into more long third down passing situations, which should give the Broncos a slight edge being able to go into Nickle and Dime formations. Even though the Broncos offense looks a little subpar, the Golden Eagle defense isn't a shining star either. Boise State should be able to establish the run with Johnson and force the Golden Eagles to respect both run and pass. Accompanied with the Smurf Turf and the good home field crowd, it's enough for me to go for it.

Indiana +11 vs. Iowa

Wisconsin -7.5 vs Sparty

Bills Jets over 37

Bears Lions over 45

And for Mackiefish Ball State -15.5 against Buffalo

You have these the wrong way I think

You are right. I guess I wasn't thinking last night. I will edit the post. I would probably be 5-0 on these predictions though

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Purdue/Notre Dame over 53.5
I think that Purdue scores at least 45 points in this game. I don't want to think about the cover so I will make my first over/under bet of the year.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

OK, I'll give this a go. Odds from sportsbook.com

Michigan -17 over NU
Blue is kinda waking up and purple is really bad.

MIA -4.5 over OAK
Culpepper lays an egg against his former team.

DET +3 over CHI
Maybe my betting against the bear will inspire some fire and passion.

DET/CHI under 44.5
I know the corners are out, but the front 7 pressures Kitna. Griese dinks and dunks and Turner tries to jump-start Cedric.

NE/CIN under 53
NE defense holds down the bengal.

Michigan -16.5
The Wolverines are back on track, and the Cats are brutal.

Kansas State +14.5
This is not the same Texas team from the last few years, and KSU is undervalued.

Rutgers -18
Maryland cannot stack up with teams that have elite talent.


South Carolina -14
Virginia Tech -19.5
Akron +15.5
Indiana +10
Auburn +17.5
Auburn/Florida under 54.5
UCLA +3
Tulane +41.5
LSU/Tulane over 52
Oklahoma -23
Virginia -6

I am too hungover to do any write ups.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Bengals +7.5 against Patriots

Fading NSJ and siding with The Bookie Priest. Seriously though, it has been the weekend of the home dog. This one would be the icing on the cake. I think the Patriots have played their absolute best football this year and it has been impressive. It is difficult to sustain that near perfection for this long though. I am looking at this more as as Patriot let down than a huge Bengal rally. In reality, if the Pats are this good, the line should be bigger. The public is all over them. So why is this line still single digits?

Bears -3 at Lions

Someone please make a legitimate argument on how the Bears are a three point favorite in this game...and yet they are. VERY odd line here. So that means pound the bears.

Packers at Vikings UNDER 38

The Packers have had zero success running the ball this year. They will not get healthy on the Vikings. I think the Pack passing game will be heavily affected by the noise in the dome (stat guys out there help me, doesn't Favre have a horrible record in domes). Vikings are a one dimensional team. This plays into the one apsect of the Packers that has impressed me, the D. I look for Farve to have a 3 pick day and the Vikings to do very little with it.

Falcons +3 against Texans

Someone took too big a sip on the Texan Kool Aid before making this line. Texans have had a lot of injuries at key offensive poisitons the last 2 weeks. They are hurting and never been a road favorite in their history. Nothing makes me think they should be.

Cardinals +6 against Steelers

Mac had this one picked right at the beginning of the week. Arizona always seems to bring out the worst in northern cities.
Alabama +2.5 against FSU in Jacksonville

This is a neutral site and I believe Bama is the better team. Two tough defenses in this one will make it low scoring and I like to take the points in those situations

ILL-INI +3 against PSU

This one's for you Doc Ken. The Illini have been playing tough D for two years now. That will not change tomorrow. PSU is weak across the board on O. This one will be decided by a turnover

Michigan State +7.5 at Wisconsin

Nothing Wisconsin has done this year screams big favorite. A weak Iowa offense had them down most of the game last week. MSU has more power then the Hawkeyes and is their equal on D.

SMU -1.5 against UTEP

Just because I like to throw an unknown game at you once in a while

BYU -5.5 at New Mexico

BYU is a major under the radar team this year. The Mormons actually feature D now.

ASU -14 at Stanford

ASU has always been a team with a lot of talent and zero heart. They seem to be getting it this year. I like them to ROLL this weekend.

GD I assume you are going with the Lions? u made a typo just trying to avert any controversey

_________________
"Stay out of courtrooms-but if you must go in be Well Armed and Don't compromise. You are innocent, remember that. They are guilty" -- Dr. Gonzo

GD comes from the Boilermaker Rick school of reversing all the lines, then betting. I imagine that's an especially lucrative way of betting.

_________________
Fire Phil Emery

South Florida +7
Getting 7 at home, after winning last year on the road. Should be a close game, take the points.

Houston -2.5

Texans are 5-0 ATS in last 5 and 4-2 ATS on the road. Texans are bruised but Falcons wont be able to keep up with decent Texans offense

Minnesota +1

Vikings have dominated the Pack at home in the last 15 and Green Bay to beat up and not as good as they look to get a win in the dome.

Jets +3.5

Jones will have a huge day against brutal Bills Run D and Bills mustering less points per game then the Bears, I like the Jets straight up.

Browns +4

Raves are very inconsistent and haven’t beat the spread this year and the Browns are capable of putting up points should keep it close against a lame Ravens O.

Chargers –11.5

Chargers are due and KC wont be able to score much on the road and a D that has looked decent for the Chiefs the past 2 and brutal for the Chargers will reverse rolls this week.

I'm feeling really stupid for not having played the WV/SFU game. I loved SFU tonight, but I've been horrible playing college football, so I avoided it. 14-0 with 2:00 to go before halftime, and I'm kicking myself.

_________________
Fire Phil Emery

Indiana +10 vs Iowa- I think IU is going to play tough in some games this year and last week Iowa lost some key players, the gameplan for the Hawkeyes will be to run, but if IU can control first down look out.

Illinois +3 vs Penn State- Penn State is coming off a brutal loss, some Penn State receivers are starting to talk that they aren't getting the ball and if the Illinni can run, look out.

California and Oregon over 73- I know a lot of points, but both teams will score today and Cal has allowed a bunch of points in their wins and Oregon gave up over 30 to Stanford last week.

Virginia -5.5 vs Pittsburgh- Pitt looks bad and Virginia is starting to turn in around now, because there was some talk they were a dark horse before the season.

Let's hope for a little better luck than last week (I don't think it could get worse). From thegreek.com:

Penn State -3 over Illinois
Like I said in a different thread, I love the Illini but I don't think they beat the Nittany Lions.

Michigan -16.5 over Northwestern
Sorry Mud and NSJ, but the Wolverines are starting to get on a roll and the Cats lost to Duke last week.

California / Oregon under 73.5
Sooner or later these teams will have to learn to play defense too.

Green Bay -1.5 over Minnesota
This line may seem too good to be true, but I'll take it anyways.

Baltimore -4 over Cleveland
Baltimore's defense is just too good for Cleveland to score many points.

Week 5 Conference Shenanigans

Mich St. @ Wisc. -7

PJ Hill and an adequate defensive showing by the Badgers will send the Spartans home sonfounded.

Mich St. 14 Wisc. 24

Clemson -3 @ GT

GT QB is going to have a long day. Close game, a grinder special.

Clemson 16 GT 12

Cal +6 1/2 @ Oregon (73)

The Golden Bears get jammed by some crooked, baby Jesus hatin' commie referee. I can feel it. Take the over. This is an EA sports presentaion.

Cal 40 Fightin' Swooshes 41

THE Luckeyes -24 @ Mimmesota (60 1/2)

OSU should have this covered by the first quarter. Gophers never quit, lots of D opportunites to get some of them hella sweet decals for their helmets. Take the over.

OSU 47 Gophers 16

Auburn @ Florida -17 1/2 (54)

Tebow time under the lights. Take the over. Cox and Tate get some for AU.

The Tigers, however, have won four straight and eight of nine against Top 10 opponents, with the only loss coming in overtime against LSU in 2005. Though Florida owns the nation's second-longest home winning streak at 18 games, Auburn has won 12 of 13 SEC road games, including six in a row.

Tigers 20 Florida 38

_________________
CSFMB: Home of the small minded

Five picks for my week (lines from the Greek):

-Baltimore(-4) over Cleveland. I guess I am just a Browns hater.

--Detroit (+3) over Bears. It is hard to beat a passing team with your whole secondary out. This line puzzles me, so it is probably a trap, but I am going with first impressions.

--Green Bay (-1-1/2) over Minnesota. Packers should win by three at least. I am predicting more than ten.

--Carolina (-3) over Tampa Bay. The Tampa bandwagon hits a big bump in the road.

--Giants (+3) over Philly. Must game for both. Have to go with the home team since Westbrook may be hurt or not (what else is new?). Just have a feeling that the NY defense will actually show up on Sunday.

_________________
You cannot make me care about the WNBA.

Georgia Tech +3 (-105)
Nevada -4
Houston -13
Florida State -1.5
Wisconsin -7 (-105)
Oregon State -3
New Mexico +4

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

The Greek 8/29
GB v. Vikes Over 38
Favre is playing well and not making mistakes. Without a ruunning game they are throwing it a lot and should be a fairly high scoring game with both teams in the 20's

Seattle - 2
San Fran tends to keep home games close even when they lose, but their defense is not very good. Big day for Alexander & Gore in this one.

Steelers -6
This isn't Cowher's team anymore. The spread offense fits the personnel better, and they should beat the confused Cards by double digits.

Denver +10
They always play close, but this one is a pure gut play. I don't think Indy offense is clicking yet.

_________________
“Mmmm. Move over, eggs. Bacon just got a new best friend - fudge.”

I liked your earlier picks better, Rick

_________________
Fire Phil Emery

I took UCLA originally, and then bought it back. I should know by now to stick with my first instinct.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Oakland/Miami under 41
Oakland +4
Atlanta +3
Cleveland +4
Chicago -2.5
Minnesota +1.5
St. Louis +13
Buffalo +3.5
Carolina -3
Tampa Bay/Carolina under 40
San Francisco +2
Kansas City/San Diego over 38.5
Denver +10
New England/Cincinnati under 54
Cincinnati +9

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Texans -2.5 vs Falcons- I know the thought is the Falcons could get one today, but I think Schaub shows Atlanta they kept the wrong quarterback and explodes for a big passing day.

Panthers -3 vs Buccanneers- It sounds like Carr starts today and he will show the Bucs he is a good quarterback in the league and the Panthers running game will wear down the Bucs today.

Lines are from Pinnacle sports.

Miami -4 Oakland is still terrible, Duante will flop against former team as Miami still has some semblance of a defense

Cleveland +4, Baltimore is the worst team to ever accumulate 12 victories last year, reality sets in and Cleveland wins this outright

Detroit +3, unfortunately d-fense is too banged up this one is ugly and detroit pulls it out 17-13

Chicago/Detroit UNDER 45 (see above)

Green Bay -1, yes this is probably a sucker bet but come on, the Viqueens have no QBs or WRs

_________________
"Stay out of courtrooms-but if you must go in be Well Armed and Don't compromise. You are innocent, remember that. They are guilty" -- Dr. Gonzo

Packers -1
Brett has a great game in the dome, and Minnesota never gets the ground game going.

Oakland/Miami Under 40.5
2 bad offenses, and bad weather= low scoring game