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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:02 pm 
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America wrote:
0-4 4 K. Batting average has dipped below the Mendoza Line. Javier Baez vs. A Real Pitcher.



Yeah...that's just brutal .

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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:07 pm 
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Mr. Reason wrote:
My math says Baez wore the golden sombrero tonight.


Yes he earned the unwanted chapeau. But that's what he does. They won 3-0, with Rizzo and Alcantara homering tonight. Baez may well homer tomorrow, but even if he does, it's likely he will strikeout 2-3 times as well. But when he runs into one, it often goes a long way. He's on a pace for over 50 homers in a full season, as well as over 200 strikeouts. But if he can hit over 50 homers, I can live with the strikeouts.

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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:08 pm 
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Elmhurst Steve wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
It looks like Steve had wrong HR totals for two seasons too.

So, that is another 5 home runs total. 28 home runs a year.

Looks like "simple math" isn't so simple.


I indicated that my numbers were off and he averaged 27 and 95. But that still isn't the 30/100 NAS represented he had averaged, so I was right to say that those numbers were wrong. My initial numbers were incorrect, but all the while his averages were/are less than the 30/100 NAS quoted.


My Incorrect Numbers Still Represent Being Right By Being Wrong: The Elmhurst Steve Story


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:16 pm 
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Elmhurst Steve wrote:
Mr. Reason wrote:
My math says Baez wore the golden sombrero tonight.


Yes he earned the unwanted chapeau. But that's what he does. They won 3-0, with Rizzo and Alcantara homering tonight. Baez may well homer tomorrow, but even if he does, it's likely he will strikeout 2-3 times as well. But when he runs into one, it often goes a long way. He's on a pace for over 50 homers in a full season, as well as over 200 strikeouts. But if he can hit over 50 homers, I can live with the strikeouts.

Extrapolate all you want, Grandma Moses, he ain't going to hit 50 home runs if he doesn't make adjustments. Rob Deere ain't good enough for me.

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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:16 pm 
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312player wrote:
America wrote:
0-4 4 K. Batting average has dipped below the Mendoza Line. Javier Baez vs. A Real Pitcher.



Yeah...that's just brutal .


Was it brutal when Dunn was hitting 41 homers and had 96 RBI in 2012, while hitting just .204 and striking out 222 times?? Many called that a good season, because of the power numbers. I believe Baez will make adjustments and strikeout less often in the future. But as long as he continues to produce power numbers, it's not that difficult to live with the strikeouts.

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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:18 pm 
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Mr. Reason wrote:
Elmhurst Steve wrote:
Mr. Reason wrote:
My math says Baez wore the golden sombrero tonight.


Yes he earned the unwanted chapeau. But that's what he does. They won 3-0, with Rizzo and Alcantara homering tonight. Baez may well homer tomorrow, but even if he does, it's likely he will strikeout 2-3 times as well. But when he runs into one, it often goes a long way. He's on a pace for over 50 homers in a full season, as well as over 200 strikeouts. But if he can hit over 50 homers, I can live with the strikeouts.

Extrapolate all you want, Grandma Moses, he ain't going to hit 50 home runs if he doesn't make adjustments. Rob Deere ain't good enough for me.


I believe he will make adjustments, just as he did at every minor league level he struggled at initially, before dominating.

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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:21 pm 
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America wrote:
44% K rate. Second in the majors this year in 4 strikeout games.

Hype is bad.


So is judging a player by such a small sample size in the bigs.

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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:24 pm 
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Elmhurst Steve wrote:
312player wrote:
America wrote:
0-4 4 K. Batting average has dipped below the Mendoza Line. Javier Baez vs. A Real Pitcher.



Yeah...that's just brutal .


Was it brutal when Dunn was hitting 41 homers and had 96 RBI in 2012, while hitting just .204 and striking out 222 times?? Many called that a good season, because of the power numbers. I believe Baez will make adjustments and strikeout less often in the future. But as long as he continues to produce power numbers, it's not that difficult to live with the strikeouts.

Yes, the Adam Dunn years have been brutal. If anyone wants to claim otherwise they are an idiot.

Even then, Adam Dunn's worst season in Chicago featured a 35% K rate... which is nowhere near Baez who's making a real effort to strikeout in HALF OF HIS PLATE APPEARANCES. It's going to take a lot of adjusting, and it'll only get worse as opponents really zero in on what his weaknesses are.


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:27 pm 
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RFDC wrote:
America wrote:
44% K rate. Second in the majors this year in 4 strikeout games.

Hype is bad.


So is judging a player by such a small sample size in the bigs.


He's struck out 4 or more times in 20% of his big league games. There's small sample size, then there's someone who clearly doesn't belong in a major league batters box.


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:27 pm 
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Elmhurst Steve wrote:
Mr. Reason wrote:
Elmhurst Steve wrote:
Mr. Reason wrote:
My math says Baez wore the golden sombrero tonight.


Yes he earned the unwanted chapeau. But that's what he does. They won 3-0, with Rizzo and Alcantara homering tonight. Baez may well homer tomorrow, but even if he does, it's likely he will strikeout 2-3 times as well. But when he runs into one, it often goes a long way. He's on a pace for over 50 homers in a full season, as well as over 200 strikeouts. But if he can hit over 50 homers, I can live with the strikeouts.

Extrapolate all you want, Grandma Moses, he ain't going to hit 50 home runs if he doesn't make adjustments. Rob Deere ain't good enough for me.


I believe he will make adjustments, just as he did at every minor league level he struggled at initially, before dominating.


That's adjustments made against minor league talent.

He is in the big boy leagues now amd he's tanking hard and fast.


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:29 pm 
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It's one thing to adjust to guys who sell used cars in the offseason and stick at AAA because they can locate a breaking ball.


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:30 pm 
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Elmhurst Steve wrote:
Mr. Reason wrote:
Elmhurst Steve wrote:
Mr. Reason wrote:
My math says Baez wore the golden sombrero tonight.


Yes he earned the unwanted chapeau. But that's what he does. They won 3-0, with Rizzo and Alcantara homering tonight. Baez may well homer tomorrow, but even if he does, it's likely he will strikeout 2-3 times as well. But when he runs into one, it often goes a long way. He's on a pace for over 50 homers in a full season, as well as over 200 strikeouts. But if he can hit over 50 homers, I can live with the strikeouts.

Extrapolate all you want, Grandma Moses, he ain't going to hit 50 home runs if he doesn't make adjustments. Rob Deere ain't good enough for me.


I believe he will make adjustments, just as he did at every minor league level he struggled at initially, before dominating.

I'm sorry, but in no world does minor league = MLB. The MLB folks tend to be better. My heart hopes he can adjust. My brain says Deere.

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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:50 pm 
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hey, I was a fan of Deere as a kid. And Gantner and Molitor and Yount and Surhoff and Spiers and that other guy.

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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:54 pm 
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Elmhurst Steve wrote:
312player wrote:
America wrote:
0-4 4 K. Batting average has dipped below the Mendoza Line. Javier Baez vs. A Real Pitcher.



Yeah...that's just brutal .


Was it brutal when Dunn was hitting 41 homers and had 96 RBI in 2012, while hitting just .204 and striking out 222 times?? Many called that a good season, because of the power numbers. I believe Baez will make adjustments and strikeout less often in the future. But as long as he continues to produce power numbers, it's not that difficult to live with the strikeouts.




I'm not a huge homerun fan, Baez reminds me of Dan Uggla...n I was never a fan of his.or Adam Dunn...Dunn did draw a lot of walks back in the day...I'm sure his OBP was decent that year .

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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:55 pm 
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City of Fools wrote:
hey, I was a fan of Deere as a kid. And Gantner and Molitor and Yount and Surhoff and Spiers and that other guy.

Maybe you should just go fuck a wheel of cheese?

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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2014 11:03 pm 
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Nearly everyone associated with the Cubs (fans, bloggers, management, writers, broadcasters) understood he would likely struggle.

America just got the memo. :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 1:34 am 
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He's not struggling, he's drowning. He strikes out in almost half of his PA's. That's insane.


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 6:51 am 
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I don't believe it is wise to make any judgements on legitimate prospects until about 400 MLB AB.

I mean, poor Jose Abreu struggled to hit .270 in his first half year in the league. So I am still a long way away from judging "the guy no one is talking about", "#35 prospect in all the minor leagues according to Keith Law" Arismendy Alcantara as he approaches on 200 AB and is hitting below .230. I'm even further from making an analysis of Baez.

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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 7:43 am 
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Elmhurst Steve wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
It looks like Steve had wrong HR totals for two seasons too.

So, that is another 5 home runs total. 28 home runs a year.

Looks like "simple math" isn't so simple.


I indicated that my numbers were off and he averaged 27 and 95. But that still isn't the 30/100 NAS represented he had averaged, so I was right to say that those numbers were wrong. My initial numbers were incorrect, but all the while his averages were/are less than the 30/100 NAS quoted.
Don't call people stupid when you clearly are. It is that simple.

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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 7:51 am 
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America wrote:
It's one thing to adjust to guys who sell used cars in the offseason and stick at AAA because they can locate a breaking ball.


Even in mult form I'm shocked a liberal would bad mouth the poor guys that sell used cars.
Image

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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 11:25 am 
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Baez is 189th ALL TIME in games with 4 or more K's. Baez has played in 21 games.


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 11:28 am 
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I'll give the kid a break as yes its early, but when does this start becoming a problem? Halfway into next year ? After watching the big oaf on the south side I have no interest in a 30HR 200k .225 hitter who in this case, doesn't walk.

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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 11:34 am 
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If you're the Cubs, and you are reasonably certain Soler, Bryant and Russell will be good (which is fair), you don't stick around to find out. Baez still intrigues enough teams where they'll pay a hefty price for him, if this keeps up a year from now he will not be much of a commodity.


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 12:54 pm 
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If Baez can hit .250/.330 with 180 K's and 30 HR's, I would call that a success. I think he is capable of those numbers. The Cubs brought him up basically expecting him to suck the rest of the year with the hopes he will "figure it out" by the start of next season.


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 2:18 pm 
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Big Chicagoan wrote:
If Baez can hit .250/.330 with 180 K's and 30 HR's, I would call that a success. I think he is capable of those numbers. The Cubs brought him up basically expecting him to suck the rest of the year with the hopes he will "figure it out" by the start of next season.


This is another aspect of The Plan that seems to be different than with call-ups from previous regimes. We're being told that we should expect Alcantara and Baez to "suck" (and they have) for a while until they "figure it out." I don't recall those low expectations for Patterson, Pie, Prior, etc or even Castro for that matter. I think there is always the expectation/hope that a minor leaguer will improve over time, but the Really.Smart.People seem to be going overboard in tempering our expectations.

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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 2:30 pm 
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Jaw Breaker wrote:
Big Chicagoan wrote:
If Baez can hit .250/.330 with 180 K's and 30 HR's, I would call that a success. I think he is capable of those numbers. The Cubs brought him up basically expecting him to suck the rest of the year with the hopes he will "figure it out" by the start of next season.


This is another aspect of The Plan that seems to be different than with call-ups from previous regimes. We're being told that we should expect Alcantara and Baez to "suck" (and they have) for a while until they "figure it out." I don't recall those low expectations for Patterson, Pie, Prior, etc or even Castro for that matter. I think there is always the expectation/hope that a minor leaguer will improve over time, but the Really.Smart.People seem to be going overboard in tempering our expectations.
That's a good point. I'm more of the mind that if just one of these guys becomesban impact player and 1 or 2 more become serviceable mlb players that the Cubs will be lucky. They ain't all gonna hit big I know that much.

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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 2:38 pm 
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badrogue17 wrote:
Jaw Breaker wrote:
Big Chicagoan wrote:
If Baez can hit .250/.330 with 180 K's and 30 HR's, I would call that a success. I think he is capable of those numbers. The Cubs brought him up basically expecting him to suck the rest of the year with the hopes he will "figure it out" by the start of next season.


This is another aspect of The Plan that seems to be different than with call-ups from previous regimes. We're being told that we should expect Alcantara and Baez to "suck" (and they have) for a while until they "figure it out." I don't recall those low expectations for Patterson, Pie, Prior, etc or even Castro for that matter. I think there is always the expectation/hope that a minor leaguer will improve over time, but the Really.Smart.People seem to be going overboard in tempering our expectations.
That's a good point. I'm more of the mind that if just one of these guys becomesban impact player and 1 or 2 more become serviceable mlb players that the Cubs will be lucky. They ain't all gonna hit big I know that much.

We could never say that before though. There rarely was that other guy. The was a guy.


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 2:42 pm 
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Very true. The more shots you get at the board the better but law of averages is going to say most of these guys coming up arent going to get it done so let's not be surprised when that happens

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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 2:56 pm 
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Big Chicagoan wrote:
If Baez can hit .250/.330 with 180 K's and 30 HR's, I would call that a success. I think he is capable of those numbers. The Cubs brought him up basically expecting him to suck the rest of the year with the hopes he will "figure it out" by the start of next season.


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL BAEZ THREAD
PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 8:54 pm 
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Baez just crushed a double to knock in 2 runs against the Reds. He KILT it!

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