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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 7:46 am 
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Whoo hoo! They won a game! They win one today, thats two in a tow. Win one tomorrow, thats called a winning streak. It has happened before.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:00 am 
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badrogue17 wrote:
SpiralStairs wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
SpiralStairs wrote:
My biggest issue is assigning an individual statistic for the performance and an entire team.

No one takes quarterback "win/loss" records seriously. Why should it be any different in baseball?


Because a baseball team is radically different depending upon the starting pitcher. It would be like if each quarterback only played every third game.


All a win tells you is that a pitcher happened to pitch long enough and allow fewer runs than the other team's pitcher on a particular day. Anyone looking at how effective a pitcher is can start by looking at win totals, but as soon as you compare one pitcher to another the usefulness of win/loss totals becomes less meaningful because so many other factors are necessarily added into that comparison.

In 1993 something called John Burkett went 22-7 for the Giants. That same year Greg Maddux went 20-10. Why did Burkett win more and lose less than Maddux when by every measurable account Maddux was the better pitcher?

Thats exactly what his job is.


Then by that logic John Burkett was was a better pitcher than Maddux that year, and that John Danks, Brett Cecil, and Carl fucking Pavano were better pitchers than Felix Hernandez in 2010.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:02 am 
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SpiralStairs wrote:
Then by that logic John Burkett was was a better pitcher than Maddux that year, and that John Danks, Brett Cecil, and Carl fucking Pavano were better pitchers than Felix Hernandez in 2010.


The sample is too small. Was John Paciorek the greatest hitter of all-time? I guess one could argue he was. But if you're suggesting that John Burkett was a bum, you're wrong there too.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:06 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
SpiralStairs wrote:
Then by that logic John Burkett was was a better pitcher than Maddux that year, and that John Danks, Brett Cecil, and Carl fucking Pavano were better pitchers than Felix Hernandez in 2010.


The sample is too small. Was John Paciorek the greatest hitter of all-time? I guess one could argue he was. But if you're suggesting that John Burkett was a bum, you're wrong there too.


An entire season of play is too small a sample size to tell which pitcher pitched best in a particular year?

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:10 am 
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SpiralStairs wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
SpiralStairs wrote:
Then by that logic John Burkett was was a better pitcher than Maddux that year, and that John Danks, Brett Cecil, and Carl fucking Pavano were better pitchers than Felix Hernandez in 2010.


The sample is too small. Was John Paciorek the greatest hitter of all-time? I guess one could argue he was. But if you're suggesting that John Burkett was a bum, you're wrong there too.


An entire season of play is too small a sample size to tell which pitcher pitched best in a particular year?



It's too small to say who was a better pitcher. It's 32 or 33 starts. A W/L record isn't going to shake out over that span. How small do you want to narrow it down? You must agree that John Paciorek is the greatest three at-bat man ever, right?

Let me ask you this, who is the great starting pitcher who was unlucky enough to have a poor record over the course of his career? I want you to find me just one. That unlucky soul must exist, right?

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:17 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
SpiralStairs wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
SpiralStairs wrote:
Then by that logic John Burkett was was a better pitcher than Maddux that year, and that John Danks, Brett Cecil, and Carl fucking Pavano were better pitchers than Felix Hernandez in 2010.


The sample is too small. Was John Paciorek the greatest hitter of all-time? I guess one could argue he was. But if you're suggesting that John Burkett was a bum, you're wrong there too.


An entire season of play is too small a sample size to tell which pitcher pitched best in a particular year?



It's too small to say who was a better pitcher. It's 32 or 33 starts. A W/L record isn't going to shake out over that span. How small do you want to narrow it down? You must agree that John Paciorek is the greatest three at-bat man ever, right?

Let me ask you this, who is the great starting pitcher who was unlucky enough to have a poor record over the course of his career? I want you to find me just one. That unlucky soul must exist, right?


Over the course of his career Cy Young won 511 games, Bob Gibson only won 251. Everyone knows Bob Gibson is a better pitcher even though he won half as many games. Why is that?

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:25 am 
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SpiralStairs wrote:
Over the course of his career Cy Young won 511 games, Bob Gibson only won 251. Everyone knows Bob Gibson is a better pitcher even though he won half as many games. Why is that?


:lol: :lol: Everyone doesn't "know" that. It isn't even true. Bob Gibson's legend has grown so much after his retirement it's almost silly. In his own time he was never considered a better pitcher than Juan Marichal or Warren Spahn or Tom Seaver. Besides that, Gibson had a .590 winning percentage. Try again.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:32 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
SpiralStairs wrote:
Over the course of his career Cy Young won 511 games, Bob Gibson only won 251. Everyone knows Bob Gibson is a better pitcher even though he won half as many games. Why is that?


:lol: :lol: Everyone doesn't "know" that. It isn't even true. Bob Gibson's legend has grown so much after his retirement it's almost silly. In his own time he was never considered a better pitcher than Juan Marichal or Warren Spahn or Tom Seaver. Besides that, Gibson had a .590 winning percentage. Try again.


Sphan and Seaver may be better but Gibson won more games than Marichal. How could he not be better than him? If Marichal is better than Gibson what made him better than Gibson?

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:34 am 
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SpiralStairs wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
SpiralStairs wrote:
Over the course of his career Cy Young won 511 games, Bob Gibson only won 251. Everyone knows Bob Gibson is a better pitcher even though he won half as many games. Why is that?


:lol: :lol: Everyone doesn't "know" that. It isn't even true. Bob Gibson's legend has grown so much after his retirement it's almost silly. In his own time he was never considered a better pitcher than Juan Marichal or Warren Spahn or Tom Seaver. Besides that, Gibson had a .590 winning percentage. Try again.


Sphan and Seaver may be better but Gibson won more games than Marichal. How could he not be better than him? If Marichal is better than Gibson what made him better than Gibson?


Marichal had a better career winning percentage and a lower ERA. So did Whitey Ford.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:43 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
SpiralStairs wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
SpiralStairs wrote:
Over the course of his career Cy Young won 511 games, Bob Gibson only won 251. Everyone knows Bob Gibson is a better pitcher even though he won half as many games. Why is that?


:lol: :lol: Everyone doesn't "know" that. It isn't even true. Bob Gibson's legend has grown so much after his retirement it's almost silly. In his own time he was never considered a better pitcher than Juan Marichal or Warren Spahn or Tom Seaver. Besides that, Gibson had a .590 winning percentage. Try again.


Sphan and Seaver may be better but Gibson won more games than Marichal. How could he not be better than him? If Marichal is better than Gibson what made him better than Gibson?


Marichal had a better career winning percentage and a lower ERA. So did Whitey Ford.


It sounds like we have to look at more than a W/L record to tell how good a pitcher is. Whitey Ford has the 3rd best career win% is he the 3rd best pitcher in MLB history?

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:49 am 
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SpiralStairs wrote:
It sounds like we have to look at more than a W/L record to tell how good a pitcher is. Whitey Ford has the 3rd best career win% is he the 3rd best pitcher in MLB history?


And yet, you can't show me the good pitcher with a less than good W/L record.

RE: Ford: Conventional wisdom says no, but I'd certainly put Whitey up there. What don't you like about any of his numbers? For left-handers, you've got Grove, Johnson, Spahn and I'd say Ford is next. You can make an argument for Koufax, but he's a special guy, an oddity with a short career.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:57 am 
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Over the course of 10 years W/L % is a pretty good measure of a pitcher's worth. Over one season, not so much.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:09 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
SpiralStairs wrote:
It sounds like we have to look at more than a W/L record to tell how good a pitcher is. Whitey Ford has the 3rd best career win% is he the 3rd best pitcher in MLB history?


And yet, you can't show me the good pitcher with a less than good W/L record.

RE: Ford: Conventional wisdom says no, but I'd certainly put Whitey up there. What don't you like about any of his numbers? For left-handers, you've got Grove, Johnson, Spahn and I'd say Ford is next. You can make an argument for Koufax, but he's a special guy, an oddity with a short career.


I'm not saying W/L records tell us nothing, I'm saying that the information it provides tells little about how and why and what makes one pitcher better than another. Is Whitey Ford a better pitcher than Greg Maddux? Looking at his career win% would seem to suggest that, but Maddux has 100 more wins than Ford. How do we determine who is the better pitcher now?

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:40 am 
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SpiralStairs wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
SpiralStairs wrote:
It sounds like we have to look at more than a W/L record to tell how good a pitcher is. Whitey Ford has the 3rd best career win% is he the 3rd best pitcher in MLB history?


And yet, you can't show me the good pitcher with a less than good W/L record.

RE: Ford: Conventional wisdom says no, but I'd certainly put Whitey up there. What don't you like about any of his numbers? For left-handers, you've got Grove, Johnson, Spahn and I'd say Ford is next. You can make an argument for Koufax, but he's a special guy, an oddity with a short career.


I'm not saying W/L records tell us nothing, I'm saying that the information it provides tells little about how and why and what makes one pitcher better than another. Is Whitey Ford a better pitcher than Greg Maddux? Looking at his career win% would seem to suggest that, but Maddux has 100 more wins than Ford. How do we determine who is the better pitcher now?



I don't really look at the game that way. There's no reason we should have to definitively determine whether Whitey Ford is better than Greg Maddux. And the truth is, we can't. Stuff like that is just fun to argue about and there is no real right or wrong answer.

Obviously, there are many statistics we can look at and there are new ones every day. But if we could only look at one stat for a starting pitcher, career W/L record tells you more than any other single statistic.

If I give you 3.19 ERA, what does that mean? There's no context. It seems good. What if the guy pitched in the 60s? It's still okay, but probably not as good as you thought. It really isn't telling you much at all. It could be Nolan Ryan or it could be Pete Richert. But if I tell you the same guy was 134-84, it tells you a whole lot more. You know he was a starter who was highly effective. You can figure he pitched 1700-1900 innings.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:43 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
SpiralStairs wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
SpiralStairs wrote:
It sounds like we have to look at more than a W/L record to tell how good a pitcher is. Whitey Ford has the 3rd best career win% is he the 3rd best pitcher in MLB history?


And yet, you can't show me the good pitcher with a less than good W/L record.

RE: Ford: Conventional wisdom says no, but I'd certainly put Whitey up there. What don't you like about any of his numbers? For left-handers, you've got Grove, Johnson, Spahn and I'd say Ford is next. You can make an argument for Koufax, but he's a special guy, an oddity with a short career.


I'm not saying W/L records tell us nothing, I'm saying that the information it provides tells little about how and why and what makes one pitcher better than another. Is Whitey Ford a better pitcher than Greg Maddux? Looking at his career win% would seem to suggest that, but Maddux has 100 more wins than Ford. How do we determine who is the better pitcher now?



I don't really look at the game that way. There's no reason we should have to definitively determine whether Whitey Ford is better than Greg Maddux. And the truth is, we can't. Stuff like that is just fun to argue about and there is no real right or wrong answer.

Obviously, there are many statistics we can look at and there are new ones every day. But if we could only look at one stat for a starting pitcher, career W/L record tells you more than any other single statistic.

If I give you 3.19 ERA, what does that mean? There's no context. It seems good. What if the guy pitched in the 60s? It's still okay, but probably not as good as you thought. It really isn't telling you much at all. It could be Nolan Ryan or it could be Pete Richert. But if I tell you the same guy was 134-84, it tells you a whole lot more. You know he was a starter who was highly effective. You can figure he pitched 1700-1900 innings.


3.19 means he was usually going to give you a quality start. going 10-0 with a 5.19 ERA means you are very lucky.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:45 am 
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jimmypasta wrote:
3.19 means he was usually going to give you a quality start. going 10-0 with a 5.19 ERA means you are very lucky.


Jimmy is a baseball savant! :lol: Cubs should've hired him.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:47 am 
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jimmypasta wrote:
3.19 means he was usually going to give you a quality start.


In the 60s 3.19 meant you were Jon Garland.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:50 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
In the 60s 3.19 meant you were Jon Garland.


You'd be Jim Lonborg -- Cy Young!!

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:53 am 
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Hatchetman wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
In the 60s 3.19 meant you were Jon Garland.


You'd be Jim Lonborg -- Cy Young!!



Bobby Bolin had a 2.89 in 1966. I demand his retroactive Cy Young!

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 11:59 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I don't really look at the game that way. There's no reason we should have to definitively determine whether Whitey Ford is better than Greg Maddux. And the truth is, we can't. Stuff like that is just fun to argue about and there is no real right or wrong answer.

Obviously, there are many statistics we can look at and there are new ones every day. But if we could only look at one stat for a starting pitcher, career W/L record tells you more than any other single statistic.

If I give you 3.19 ERA, what does that mean? There's no context. It seems good. What if the guy pitched in the 60s? It's still okay, but probably not as good as you thought. It really isn't telling you much at all. It could be Nolan Ryan or it could be Pete Richert. But if I tell you the same guy was 134-84, it tells you a whole lot more. You know he was a starter who was highly effective. You can figure he pitched 1700-1900 innings.


I'm not sure that's the case. Look at Whitey Ford again. Great pitcher, Hall of Fame pitcher. Does he have the same career W/L record if he plays his entire career for the Washington Senators? His W/L record necessarily depends on the team he plays for. A statistic like WHIP tells you a lot more about how a pitcher performs individually as it doesn't rely as heavily (if at all) on the performance of other members of the pitcher's team.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 12:24 pm 
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SpiralStairs wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I don't really look at the game that way. There's no reason we should have to definitively determine whether Whitey Ford is better than Greg Maddux. And the truth is, we can't. Stuff like that is just fun to argue about and there is no real right or wrong answer.

Obviously, there are many statistics we can look at and there are new ones every day. But if we could only look at one stat for a starting pitcher, career W/L record tells you more than any other single statistic.

If I give you 3.19 ERA, what does that mean? There's no context. It seems good. What if the guy pitched in the 60s? It's still okay, but probably not as good as you thought. It really isn't telling you much at all. It could be Nolan Ryan or it could be Pete Richert. But if I tell you the same guy was 134-84, it tells you a whole lot more. You know he was a starter who was highly effective. You can figure he pitched 1700-1900 innings.


I'm not sure that's the case. Look at Whitey Ford again. Great pitcher, Hall of Fame pitcher. Does he have the same career W/L record if he plays his entire career for the Washington Senators? His W/L record necessarily depends on the team he plays for. A statistic like WHIP tells you a lot more about how a pitcher performs individually as it doesn't rely as heavily (if at all) on the performance of other members of the pitcher's team.



What he would have done if... is nothing more than conjecture. We can only look at what he did. Yes, he played for the Yankees, but did you know that the Yankees often held his start in order for him to face the opposing team's best pitcher?

A statistic like WHIP tells you how many men a pitcher allows to reach base. There may be a general correlation between that and a successful pitcher, but there are many starting pitchers who are more successful than others who allow less baserunners. In fact, baserunners are allowed by design quite often.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 12:31 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
SpiralStairs wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I don't really look at the game that way. There's no reason we should have to definitively determine whether Whitey Ford is better than Greg Maddux. And the truth is, we can't. Stuff like that is just fun to argue about and there is no real right or wrong answer.

Obviously, there are many statistics we can look at and there are new ones every day. But if we could only look at one stat for a starting pitcher, career W/L record tells you more than any other single statistic.

If I give you 3.19 ERA, what does that mean? There's no context. It seems good. What if the guy pitched in the 60s? It's still okay, but probably not as good as you thought. It really isn't telling you much at all. It could be Nolan Ryan or it could be Pete Richert. But if I tell you the same guy was 134-84, it tells you a whole lot more. You know he was a starter who was highly effective. You can figure he pitched 1700-1900 innings.


I'm not sure that's the case. Look at Whitey Ford again. Great pitcher, Hall of Fame pitcher. Does he have the same career W/L record if he plays his entire career for the Washington Senators? His W/L record necessarily depends on the team he plays for. A statistic like WHIP tells you a lot more about how a pitcher performs individually as it doesn't rely as heavily (if at all) on the performance of other members of the pitcher's team.



What he would have done if... is nothing more than conjecture. We can only look at what he did. Yes, he played for the Yankees, but did you know that the Yankees often held his start in order for him to face the opposing team's best pitcher?

A statistic like WHIP tells you how many men a pitcher allows to reach base. There may be a general correlation between that and a successful pitcher, but there are many starting pitchers who are more successful than others who allow less baserunners. In fact, baserunners are allowed by design quite often.


Does this mean that they win more?

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 12:35 pm 
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Whitey Ford, beyotches! The man was money.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 1:00 pm 
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SpiralStairs wrote:
Does this mean that they win more?



It means they usually allow less runs than the opposing pitcher(s) in the actual games they pitch.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:11 pm 
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Francona pitched to Abreu again. Good call. :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:16 pm 
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Holy holy, if Abreu played in the NL he'd be knocking on the door of a triple crown. There's still a month left to catch Jose Altuve!

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:22 am 
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SpiralStairs wrote:
Holy holy, if Abreu played in the NL he'd be knocking on the door of a triple crown. There's still a month left to catch Jose Altuve!
Nope. His homers barely get over the wall. He'd have like 15 HRs on teh NL /Kirkwood

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:34 am 
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Next year he will have minimum 7 less homers. I'm assuming he plays 162


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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:36 am 
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Kirkwood wrote:
Next year he will have minimum 7 less homers. I'm assuming he plays 162
Well, he does seem to be evolving into a more well rounded hitter. If he leads the league in OPS again then a few less homers would be just fine.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:38 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Kirkwood wrote:
Next year he will have minimum 7 less homers. I'm assuming he plays 162
Well, he does seem to be evolving into a more well rounded hitter. If he leads the league in OPS again then a few less homers would be just fine.

I agree.


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