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CUBS - DIAMONDBACKS
When the Cubs open the National League Division Series on Wednesday at Arizona, Chase Field will have a definite Chicago flavor with all the displaced Cubs fans who live in the Valley of the Sun. The Cubs have a huge contingent of fans in the Scottsdale area where they have played their exhibition ball for decades. There's no denying that the Cubs have the more potent and experienced lineup and the perceived bullpen and pitching advantage of the Diamondbacks is myth and not grounded in fact. Surprisngly, the Cubs have the better overall pitching numbers allowed:
Chi AZ
ERA 4.02 4.14
AVE .246 .262
OBP .322 .335
SL% .398 .420
HITTING
The DBacks come in tied for the lowest batting average (.250) and on base percentage (.321) in the NL and scored the 3rd fewest runs (721). While the Cubs should have more potent offensive numbers for the season, their offense is hitting on all cylinders now as they seem healthier than they have been all year. They are capable of scoring in bunches and their big names give them as potent a a top of their order as anyone in baseball.
ARIZONA
Arizona ranks 14th (tied) in the NL in runs scored, with good reason. Despite having a ton of talent on its roster, its hitters haven't performed up to expectations, and a major reason why is that so many of these young hitters were not ready for the majors when they first got there. The Diamondbacks' typical lineup is a collection of big hacks, and you don't see a lot of adjustments to offspeed stuff. Chris Young can crush balls, but his swing is long, he's very pull-oriented and he doesn't recognize breaking balls. He jumps all over first-pitch fastballs, and teams will figure that one out quickly. Young has hit 32 HR's but with a .295 on base percentage, he is not the quintessential leadoff hitter. In addition, Young struck out 141 times while only walking 43 times. Mark Reynolds chases breaking balls low and away, sliders in on his hands, fastballs up above the zone and breaking balls down and in, which doesn't leave much else. He will crush hanging breaking balls and fastballs in the zone, but you can beat him soft away because he won't take those pitches to right. Reynolds whiffed an incredible 128 times while walking just 36 times in 343 appearances (one whiff per 3 plate appearances).Snyder is a dead fastball hitter and will go after breaking balls in the dirt. As a result, they are not a hard team to pitch to, since their weaknesses as hitters are obvious and they don't draw a lot of walks. The best swing in the lineup is Stephen Drew's, but right now, he's not strong enough to drive good stuff to right field, and his approach doesn't include taking those balls to left-center often enough. Upton is a potential star and can drive a ball out with the best of them, but in a late-September look, he seemed tired and wasn't catching up to harder stuff he would have crushed two months ago.
Byrnes has really tailed off after a first half where many considered him an MVP candidate. He hit just .258 since the All-Star break with 7 HR's and 34 RBI's. Overall they have only one player with 70 or more RBI's.
YOUNG (32/68/.237) (Post AS 13/31/.242)
BYRNES (21/83/.286) (Post AS 7/34/.258)
JACKSON (15/60/.285) (Post AS 10/34/.309)
REYNOLDS (17/62/.281) (Post AS 11/39/.287)
DREW (12/60/.240) (Post AS 8/31/.237)
CUBS
The Cubs came to life offensively in September and hit the second most HR's in the month of September. Most of the Cubs' hitters were around .300 or more for the month of September. In a normal season Derrek Lee is one of the five best hitters in the league, but until September of this year, his power wasn't anywhere near what he's capable of showing. He's squaring balls up just like he usually does, but Lee wasn't driving the ball as recently as the final week of August. It might have been the lingering effects of last year's broken wrist, but his seven-homer September might be indicative that he is healthy and ready to be the Lee will all know. After missing most of August. Soriano was on fire in September breaking the Cubs all-time record for most HR's in a month with 14. For the month he hit .320 and seems to be in peak form entering the playoffs. Aramis Ramirez remains the Cubs best clutch hitter producing 101 RBI's. All of the Cubs 3 top guns were inured at one point this season, but all seem healthy now. Jacques Jones came to life after the all-star break with 45 RBI's and a .326 average. He will more than likely get the start throughout the series in center against lefties and righties. Soto gives the Cubs a solid platoon behind the plate as he was on fire in September with a .426 average. Floyd and Murton will platoon in RF and both are solid offensive weapons.
(HR/RBI/AVE)
SORIANO (33/70/.299) (Sept 14/27 .320)
LEE (22/82/.317) (Sept 7/14/.363)
RAMIREZ (26/101/.310) (Sept 8/21/.287)
DEROSA (10/72/.293) (Sept 2/10/.316)
JONES (5/66/.285) (Sept 0/15/.326)
SOTO (3/8/.389) (Sept 3/7/.426)
MURTON (8/22/.281) (Sept 3/6/.341)
STARTING PITCHING
Zambrano and Webb are two of the top pitchers in the NL and could actually go head-to-head twice in this series. There is no real advantage either way, although Zambrano has been the sharper of the two over the last three weeks. Overall, the Cubs have what seems to be an advantage with 2nd and 3rd starters. Lilly and Hill have had solid seasons while Davis has been up and down and Hernandez has been mediocre at best. Owings has been sharp his last two against weak hitting teams and could have upside for the DBacks and could have a slight advantage over Marquis. Hill ranks 5th in the NL in strikeouts, Zambrano 7th and Lilly 11th. Against a starting lineup with some hitters who are quite prone to striking out, this has to be an advantage for the Cubs. The Cubs may have a slight advantage overall in starting pitching and the DBacks chances will lie on the arm of Brandon Webb.
ARIZONA
Brandon Webb is a high level #1 starter and will hold the key to the series, particularly in Game 1. The DBacks must win Game 1 to have any real chance in this series. Webb is a "groundball machine" and throws a heavy sinker. At 89-91 mph, his velocity is just average, but his sink is off the charts -- an 80 on the 20-80 scale -- with an almost splitter-like bottom, plus run to boot. He also throws an average curve and a plus changeup that also has a splitter-like tumble to it, commands all three pitches and has plus control. He will, on occasion, leave a fastball up, and that's a hitter's best opportunity to do something other than ground out. Webb was outstanding again this season at 18-10 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.19 WHIP; however, his recent numbers were not spectacular. In Webb's last 7 starts, he tossed 44 2/3 innings and allowed 45 hits and 23 runs with a 28:14 K:BB ratio and 4.63 ERA.
Doug Davis was in peak form post all-star break but weakened over his last 4 starts of the year. Overall, Davis was 13-12 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Over his last 4 starts, Davis lasted only 18 1/3 innings and allowed 30 hits, 16 runs and had a 17:6 K:BB ratio. He has very fringy stuff, living largely off of a low-80s cutter and a pitching plan to work away from contact. He constantly is behind hitters, and he always is among the league leaders in walks.
Livan Hernandez just does not seem like the Livan of old. Herenandez fastball also is well-below average, running 80-84 mph, and he uses a big, slow curve around 60-62 mph that might succeed because it's below hitting speed. He has control and a feel for pitching that Davis lacks, but his stuff leaves him zero margin for error, and better offenses will feast on him if he's not pinpoint. This season Hernandez was just 11-11 with a 4.93 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and .308 average allowed. Over his last 5 starts, he pitched just 27 innings and allowed 41 hits, 20 runs, 6 HR's and had a 12:12 K:BB ratio. He has solid post season experience, but he is not the pitcher he once was.
Micah Owings could be the DBacks "X" factor. His numbers were decent for the season at 8-8 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. In Owings last two starts, he was phenomenal throwing 15 1/3 innings and allowing just 6 hits, no runs and had a 8:1 K:BB ratio; albeit against the Giants and Pirates. While Owings has just average stuff on the mound -- an 88-91 mph fastball, an 82-83 mph slider with early break and a changeup he rarely uses -- he commands everything to both sides of the plate, and he's a hidden weapon because he can hit. He has a strong, full swing, centers the ball well, shows some plate discipline and can adjust to soft stuff away. With a .333 average this season, having him on the playoff roster gives Arizona another pinch-hitting option off the bench, and it's almost like having a designated hitter when he's in the lineup.
CUBS
Carlos Zambrano is a high level # 1starter and when on, he is probably the best pitcher in the NL. When off, he is really off. Zambrano works with an old-school approach, establishing his 90-94 mph fastball early, dialing up and down as the situation requires (he'll touch 95 when he's going for a strikeout). His slider has good tilt and he'll use it against hitters on both sides, especially to put it under a lefty's hands, but he doesn't use it all that often, and his split-change only shows up a few times a game.He finished the season at 18-13 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. In his last 5 starts, he was very solid, throwing 32 innings and allowing 22 hits, 6 runs and had a 22:14 K:BB ratio with an ERA of 1.69. In fact, his one bad start out of the last 5 was on 3 days rest when he allowed 4 runs. Zambrano was throwing a very heavy ball in the last month of the season and his GB:FB ratio was over 3:1 over the last month of the season. We should see the Zambrano who is the quality #1 starter. Zambrano could have two road starts here and ironically, he was much better on the road this season with a 3.06 ERA.The young DBacks did not face Z this season which should be an advantage for Zambrano against some young hitters with strikeout problems.
Ted Lilly was truly a solid #2 starter for the Cubs this season at 15-8, with a 1.14 WHIP and 3.83 ERA. Lilly is a four-pitch lefty who, on good nights, will show an average fastball, plus curveball, plus changeup and an average slider. He's got a lot of deception in his delivery, and that combined with his willingness to throw any pitch makes it tough for hitters to adjust to him.In his last 6 starts, he was solid, tossing 42 2/3 innings and allowing 37 hits, 18 runs and a 41:9 K:BB ratio with a 3.80 ERA.
Rich Hill had a nice season for the Cubs at 11-8 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with a 183:63 K:BB ratio. Hill is a left-handed curveball specialist; he throws a sharp 12-to-6 breaking ball at 73-75 mph, but cuts it a little to get some slider-like tilt up near 80 mph. His fastball touches average at 87-92 but has zero downhill plane, and he doesn't have the command to get away with it in the upper half of the zone, meaning he's very prone to the long ball. Because of his out-pitch curve and his plus control, Hill has been able to work around the home runs. In his last 4 starts, he threw 22 2/3 innings and allowed 16 hits, 8 runs and a 22:7 K:BB ratio and 3.18 ERA.
Jason Marquis <http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6493> could be the 4th starter for the Cubs, which is a weak spot for the Cubs. Despite decent season numbers of 12-9 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, marquis has been awful his last 3 outings allowing 21 hits and 16 runs in 8 1/3 innings. He has a lot of playoff experience but the Cubs could consider Sean Marshall or Steve Trachsel also, although neither is an solid option.
BULLPENS
ARIZONA
Bullpen numbers the last 2 months:
IP H ER BB K ERA
Pena 24.1 25 18 13 20 6.66
Lyon 22 23 8 7 12 3.27
Cruz 20 13 8 9 31 3.60
Wickman 13.2 14 3 6 8 1.98
Valverde 23.1 18 7 9 32 2.70
The Diamondbacks' bullpen is the main reason they are outperforming their projected record, and it's not just a question of the quality of their arms -- it's how they use them. The Diamondbacks eschew the traditional slotting of roles in their bullpen, with one pitcher the "seventh-inning guy" and another the "eighth-inning guy." Instead, they think of relievers by situation, such as using Juan Cruz as their "tied or down-by-one guy."
For most of this season, Arizona has used three relievers in those tight situations. Jose Valverde is the one traditionally used reliever in the group, since he nearly always works as a one-inning closer, although he rarely works in situations when Arizona is up by more than two runs (just 17 of his 63 appearances). Valverde blows most hitters away with high heat in the 93-96 mph range, but he has two solid secondary offerings in a splitter with good bottom and a little fade away from lefties and a slider with a very short, mostly downward break. His arm action in back is ugly, but he hides the ball pretty well and it loosens up as it comes around his body.
Backing up Valverde in tight situations before the ninth inning are Brandon Lyon and Tony Pena. Lyon has been both good and lucky this year. He's been good because he commands his 91-93 mph fastball and throws strike after strike, mixing in the occasional curve down and away to righties to try to get a strikeout. He's been lucky because he doesn't really have an outpitch and he works all over the zone with his fastball, which doesn't have a lot of movement, so two homers allowed in more than 70 innings is a lot fewer than his stuff would lead us to expect.
Pena was their best reliever for the first four months of the season, working with a plus fastball at 93-95 mph and a very sharp, late-breaking slider at 86-88 mph, but he has worn down as the season has progressed, and the fatigue has taken a toll on his fastball command, which was never great but is now well-below average. The role he had been filling now has been handed to Cruz, who has a similar repertoire but better commands his fastball, especially to his glove side.
CUBS
Here are the Cubs' pitching numbers over the past 2 months:
IP H ER BB K ERA
Marmol 30.1 16 4 19 43 1.19
Howry 29.2 20 6 7 29 1.82
Eyre 19 14 2 10 17 0.95
Wood 23 17 9 13 21 3.47
Wuertz 22.2 20 9 13 30 3.57
The Cubs middle relief was as good a pen as there was in the majors the last two months and they will set up nicely in this series. Carlos Marmol is the best middle reliever most people have not heard of. At times, he has filled a multiple-inning relief role similar to Mariano Rivera in 1996. Marmol, a converted outfielder, features an outstanding fastball-slider combination and is effective against hitters on both sides of the plate. Against right-handed batters, he'll utilize the run on his 92-93 mph fastball to keep the ball moving away from the hitter, and he'll throw his slider with more tilt to hit the inside corner or to sweep it down and away to make the hitter chase. Against left-handed batters, he runs his fastball in hard on their hands, and lifts his arm angle very slightly to get more depth on his breaking ball. Marmol he can be a bit wild, but has overpowering stuff that have allowed him to average close to 1.5 strikeouts per inning.
Marmol is joined by several other relievers who've been effective despite mediocre control. The "X" factor easily should be Kerry Wood. The Cubs brought Wood along slowly and at the end of the season and he hit his best stride. Since September 13th, Wood has tossed 9 2/3 inning of shutout ball allowing just 3 hits with a 13:3 K:BB ratio. His fastball is exploding in the mid 90's and he combines it with a hard slider that breaks sharply down and away from right-handed batters, and a slowed-down version of the breaking ball that he uses a little more against lefties. Wood came into some tough situations late in the season (such as bases loaded and no one out against the Marlins 4 days ago) and got out of jams unscathed. The Cubs can also run righties Mike Wuertz (fastball-slider guy who's effective against hitters from both sides) and Bobby Howry (who pounds the strike zone in the mid 90's) and have veteran left handed specialist in Soctt Eyre. Wuertz was outstanding in September throwing 9 1/3 innings with a 1.93 ERA and an incredible 19:3 K:BB ratio.
As good as the Cubs' middle relief staff is, Ryan Dempster has the potential to mess it all up in the ninth inning. It's not a question of stuff -- Dempster will show a solid-average fastball and a plus slider -- but his control is below average, not exactly what you want in a guy who's handed one-run leads with three outs to go. After all these years in the majors, he's still just a thrower with limited feel for pitching and has too much of a tendency to put men on base. I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs turn to Howry on occasion as the stopper.
OVERALL
The Cubs are the much better hitting team with more experience and explosiveness. The starting pitching slightly favors the Cubs. The #1 starters are even. The Cubs have an advantage with ther #2 and #3 starters and the DBacks could have the advantage with the #4 starter if Owings continues to pitch like he did in his last two starts. Meanwhile, the bullpens are quite even. If the Cubs can avoid any Dempster meltdowns, they should be in excellent position. Overall, the edge clearly is in favor of the Cubs.
SERIES: CUBS -120 (10 UNITS)
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