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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 10:07 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 10:13 pm 
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You again, Franky T? The guy who answers his own questions and belongs on the Laurence Holmes thread?

I see you picked one hell of an avatar photo. Was that your cook county mug shot?


Last edited by Dignified Rube on Sat Aug 30, 2014 10:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 10:15 pm 
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Mr. Reason wrote:
Beardown is a longtime sufferer of hoof and mouth disease.


My hooker gave this to me. :(


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 Post subject: Final Thoughts
PostPosted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 10:53 pm 
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Bears Assessment

Special Teams: Possibly Worst in the league. Hurt by loss of long snapper to retirement.

Defense: Old and not demonstrably better in pre-season to league's last ranked defense from a year ago. Little depth at any position behind the D-line. Cannot get off the field on third down and inclined to make dumb penalties.

Offense: Passing dominated offense led by temperamental mediocre quarterback prone to making interceptions, particularly in the red zone. Rarely stays healthy entire season and lacks mental toughness. Top receiver apt to drop unchallenged passes. Virtually no running game due to poor run blocking.

Did someone say last in the NFC North?


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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 11:05 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2014 7:52 am 
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Oh, boo hoo. Another B&B sycophant brainwashed into thinking that the Bears are actually good, or will be once they get that process thing figured out.

Bears are about as dysfunctional as they come. They hire a general manager with no general manager experience, who hires a coach with no NFL head coaching experience, who together draft a player with no football experience.

But still they're my team and I can say whatever the fuck I want about them. I can still hope for Gruden as head coach.


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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2014 8:18 am 
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I don't know why all Bears season ticketholders didn't burn their tickets after the Bears hired Trestman, when they could have got a guy like Gruden or someone of his caliber. Instead, they went the cheap route and hired Trestman (after they went the same cheap route with Lovie Smith) who was the last one on Emory's list after all other candidates had rejected working under him because of his philosophy of drafting athletes first and football players second. Remember his defense of McClellin, "Well it's true he can't play football, but he has one hell of a vertical!" Emory had to find Trestman in the artic circle, where he was living in self imposed exile because of his hair. But in defense of Trestman, he's very efficient. He's got that kicking field goals on third down going for him.

My God people. How long are you going to accept a second rate product because of ownership cheapness and stupidity?


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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2014 8:28 am 
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denisdman wrote:
A troll is getting fed. The only question is whether the troll eats with his pants on.


I don't know what that means exactly, but it would make a great code-phrase.

"The Eagle has landed."
"One if by land; two if by sea."
"The troll eats with is pants on."

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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2014 8:42 am 
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Well, it seemed that the troll was having so much fun that I suspected he might be posting with his pants off. It's his natural Viagra.

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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2014 12:19 pm 
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Getting back to my original thoughts. Some other people are thinking this too.

http://sports.yahoo.com/video/could-qua ... 00820.html

And what was that about the line going to -7 1/2? :oops: It's at -6 1/2 now.

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml


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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2014 12:31 pm 
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Keeping score = dignified rube


There are only 3-4 guys on this team I wont criticise ...because they produce at an extremely high level, Marshall is one of em.

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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2014 12:42 pm 
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Dignified Rube wrote:
Expect Cutler to get heavily blitzed by Sherman since the Bears can't run the ball.


Who is Sherman?

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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2014 12:49 pm 
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Dave In Champaign wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
Expect Cutler to get heavily blitzed by Sherman since the Bears can't run the ball.


Who is Sherman?


Schwartz. Mistype. Hey, for my production, I'm allowed one mulligan.


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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2014 12:58 pm 
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312player wrote:
Keeping score = dignified rube


There are only 3-4 guys on this team I wont criticise ...because they produce at an extremely high level, Marshall is one of em.


And Cutler and Briggs are the other two? You might be in for a long season of self-denial.


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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2014 3:37 pm 
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312player wrote:
Keeping score = dignified rube


There are only 3-4 guys on this team I wont criticise ...because they produce at an extremely high level, Marshall is one of em.


Jeffery and Gould. That would be about it.

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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2014 4:13 pm 
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Jaw Breaker wrote:
312player wrote:
Keeping score = dignified rube


There are only 3-4 guys on this team I wont criticise ...because they produce at an extremely high level, Marshall is one of em.


Jeffery and Gould. That would be about it.


Of course Forte. It will be a travesty this season if he doesn't get the ball. I don't expect it to happen until week two, though, if pre-season is any indication. Trestman will have to come under fire with Martz like criticism for lopsided play calling for that to happen. Forte, Gould and Jeffrey are the only players whose jerseys deserve to be worn now that Urlacher retired.


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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2014 9:41 pm 
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-115 FYI for the Bears -6.5

I have a feeling Rubes life here will be very short.

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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2014 11:07 pm 
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Dignified Rube wrote:
Sam Rosen will probably be on the call, not Aikman and Buck. Hence there is more room for error with this line.



The Bills are the road team, which means the game will be on CBS.

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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 3:10 am 
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Holy crap that was some of the worst sports betting reasoning ever. I live in Vegas and hear gems at the book like...

1. They're gonna kill 'em
2. It's a lock
3. This is so easy. I can make a living at this.

We can add Kyle Orton is worth three points to the point spread. Chicago -2 on what? A super teaser parlay card?

The consensus line is currently at Chicago -6.5. I can see the line making a drop to -6 by the sharps. The Bears are one of the more public teams in Vegas. They always will get people betting them unless they run into a better public team. Since nobody non professional wants any part of the Bills. People will bet the Bears on Saturday and Sunday before the game wither in parlays or straight bets. It'll probably close near -7.

Don't get me wrong. The Bears are in for a rude awakening post Buffalo. A 3-5 start through the bye seems about spot on. Vegas is not that high on the Bears as Chicagoans are. If the Bears are 3-6 after a Green Bay loss on Sunday Night post bye. The Fire Trestman calls will start.

Don't count on the NFC North to win any playoff games again this year.


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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 8:16 am 
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Rube has been way too dumb, way too early in his board life.

I would love to hear how the announcers (Sam v Troy) have anything to do with the line.

Vegas, good to have you!

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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:20 am 
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bigfan wrote:
-115 FYI for the Bears -6.5

I have a feeling Rubes life here will be very short.


All you do is snipe at people here. Is that all you're capable of doing? You certainly aren't very funny.

Please don't preach to us how smart you are. If saying wagering on Superbowl games is the same as that on a second tier Bears-Bills game in week 1 is the culmination of your intellectual prowess, then you would be better off seeking the audience of Bob in Niles.

The spread has moved in the direction I said it would, leaving you with egg on your face. We'll know more as the week goes on. The fact that TV networks are already running pieces speculating on Orton playing confirms the sentiment that I expressed.

Two of the things I said have come true: that there would be speculation Orton starts, which there has been, and that the spread would come in. My original comments on the magnitude of the spread change was hyperbole, get it. Nothing you have uttered is true, while your penchant for logical fallacies is all the more striking.

I have no doubt that after Spiegel announced on air he had placed bets on the Bears in Vegas to win the NFC North, NFC Conference and Superbowl, you did the same. You must like losing money. They won't even win the North.

And it's starting to become clear that you are a Bernstein lackey. Instead of B. F., I will call you B. L. from now on.


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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 1:22 pm 
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The line will not move because of Kyle Orton. The line will move because sharps (dime bettors on up) bet it with little resistance from the Chicago side. They see that the Bears defense is just as bad as last year. The betting public ($20 bettors who bet Saturday night and Sunday morning) will push back the line as they believe Buffalo sucks.

A quick rule of thumb

1. If a football line moves right after it's posted
Sharp money

2. If a line moves slowly on the more popular team the day of or day before.
Public money

3. If there's a sudden move in the last 30 minutes and you're on the other side?
Prepare to lose.

Orton is as good as the bottom five starters in the NFL.


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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 2:31 pm 
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vegasck wrote:

A quick rule of thumb

1. If a football line moves right after it's posted
Sharp money

2. If a line moves slowly on the more popular team the day of or day before.
Public money

3. If there's a sudden move in the last 30 minutes and you're on the other side?
Prepare to lose.



Correct on all three counts. I will add a fourth.

4. If 75% of the bets are on one side, but the line is going the other way, the sharps are part of that 25%. Their big bets move the numbers.

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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 2:38 pm 
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Chus wrote:
vegasck wrote:

A quick rule of thumb

1. If a football line moves right after it's posted
Sharp money

2. If a line moves slowly on the more popular team the day of or day before.
Public money

3. If there's a sudden move in the last 30 minutes and you're on the other side?
Prepare to lose.



So does #3 mean someone has inside info, or that the game, race or match is fixed?

Correct on all three counts. I will add a fourth.

4. If 75% of the bets are on one side, but the line is going the other way, the sharps are part of that 25%. Their big bets move the numbers.

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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 2:48 pm 
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Dignified Rube wrote:
bigfan wrote:
-115 FYI for the Bears -6.5

I have a feeling Rubes life here will be very short.


All you do is snipe at people here. Is that all you're capable of doing? You certainly aren't very funny.

Please don't preach to us how smart you are. If saying wagering on Superbowl games is the same as that on a second tier Bears-Bills game in week 1 is the culmination of your intellectual prowess, then you would be better off seeking the audience of Bob in Niles.

The spread has moved in the direction I said it would, leaving you with egg on your face. We'll know more as the week goes on. The fact that TV networks are already running pieces speculating on Orton playing confirms the sentiment that I expressed.

.


Line is now Bears -7 at all Stations Casinos and a few others....thus moving in the other direction from what you claimed it would.

I will hang up and listen for your answer, while I wipe the egg from my face Mr. Rube.

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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 4:04 pm 
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Seacrest wrote:
Chus wrote:
vegasck wrote:

A quick rule of thumb

1. If a football line moves right after it's posted
Sharp money

2. If a line moves slowly on the more popular team the day of or day before.
Public money

3. If there's a sudden move in the last 30 minutes and you're on the other side?
Prepare to lose.





Correct on all three counts. I will add a fourth.

4. If 75% of the bets are on one side, but the line is going the other way, the sharps are part of that 25%. Their big bets move the numbers.


So does #3 mean someone has inside info, or that the game, race or match is fixed?


Sometimes the smart money waits, because they think a line will move in their favor.

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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 4:49 pm 
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Quote:
Orton is as good as the bottom five starters in the NFL


Cutler's Career TDs/Interceptions = 155/112 or 38% more TDs than interceptions.

Orton's TDs/Interceptions = 83/59 or 41% more.

Ouch :oops: . Thank you very little, Vegas Pro.

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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 6:07 pm 
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One more time - if Orton plays at all Sunday at Soldier Field, Bills win against the spread. If the line stays at -6 1/2 or -7, good for me.

I also expect more people to be cheering for Orton than for Cutler.


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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:35 pm 
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The Bills may cover with E.J. Manuel at QB. I expect any QB to put up good numbers against this Bears D. Spiller can easily go for 125 and 2 TD's (before his annual injury.) The Bills usually will play competitive for the first six weeks or so. If the Bears do not easily dispatch this team. It's nothing but red flags going forward.

Orton is on his fifth franchise. The Bears traded him and three other teams said no thanks after employing him. Orton is a game manager, you don't win with that in the NFL any longer. He is a starter on an bottom five team and a backup elsewhere. I guess the scouts are wrong and you're right.

I think you're trying too hard to stir the pot.


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 Post subject: Re: Orkin News
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:43 pm 
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Chus wrote:
Seacrest wrote:
Chus wrote:
vegasck wrote:

A quick rule of thumb

1. If a football line moves right after it's posted
Sharp money

2. If a line moves slowly on the more popular team the day of or day before.
Public money

3. If there's a sudden move in the last 30 minutes and you're on the other side?
Prepare to lose.





Correct on all three counts. I will add a fourth.

4. If 75% of the bets are on one side, but the line is going the other way, the sharps are part of that 25%. Their big bets move the numbers.


So does #3 mean someone has inside info, or that the game, race or match is fixed?


Sometimes the smart money waits, because they think a line will move in their favor.


There's nothing like seeing the 9 AM rush for the 10 AM games. It's purely chaos until 9:55.

I doubt on a fixing of a game. It's that the regular joe doesn't look past the billboard. They saw what they saw last week. Last week is over and the matchups may have a totally different result for a team. Say the Browns are 1-4 are on a three game losing streak and are playing the 3-2 Dolphins at home. You get the following line on Sunday night.

MIA
CLE -2 47

Most people will take Miami +2 without thinking twice about it.


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