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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:50 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Kirkwood wrote:
So he's a fluke, will get injured, or just OK enough to be in the rotation.

It's clear what superfan America thinks with pretty much anything.
Didn't you recently brag about how you used statistics to show that a regression with Abreu's power was coming? What is the difference with what America is doing?

He seems to be giving some pretty solid statistical reasons behind his posts. Is it that you don't like his ultimate conclusions?

I did the exact same with Alcantara, I was much maligned for it.

Side note: You will never see me ever reference xFIP. Shallow pop Flys counting as 1/10th of a HR is counter intuitive and stupid as fuck. I don't mind FIP, I think it's brilliantly simple, but xFIP is taking a good idea too far.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:57 am 
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Nothing I've seen from Arrieta the last 2 years tells me that he is a candidate to regress to a lesser version of what he currently is. He isn't getting lucky outs and scraping by in innings. He's showing dominant control of his pitches.

He's improved his ability to locate his pitches. That, IMO, is not something that will suddenly then go away. It is possible he could go through a stretch of wildness but it's more likely that he's developed his game to be a top-line starter. This is a stretch of 30+ starts now where he's demonstrated this development.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:03 am 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Nothing I've seen from Arrieta the last 2 years tells me that he is a candidate to regress to a lesser version of what he currently is. He isn't getting lucky outs and scraping by in innings. He's showing dominant control of his pitches.

He's improved his ability to locate his pitches. That, IMO, is not something that will suddenly then go away. It is possible he could go through a stretch of wildness but it's more likely that he's developed his game to be a top-line starter. This is a stretch of 30+ starts now where he's demonstrated this development.

I think he's a solid, if not very good, #3. I have said this before.

He's not better than Chris Sale. Chris Sale is arguably the second best pitcher in the game.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:05 am 
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He's pitching much better than a #3.

He's a 1/2 and there's no reason to think he can't continue to be. He's got dominant stuff as has been demonstrated for over a year.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:13 am 
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America wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Nothing I've seen from Arrieta the last 2 years tells me that he is a candidate to regress to a lesser version of what he currently is. He isn't getting lucky outs and scraping by in innings. He's showing dominant control of his pitches.

He's improved his ability to locate his pitches. That, IMO, is not something that will suddenly then go away. It is possible he could go through a stretch of wildness but it's more likely that he's developed his game to be a top-line starter. This is a stretch of 30+ starts now where he's demonstrated this development.

I think he's a solid, if not very good, #3. I have said this before.

He's not better than Chris Sale. Chris Sale is arguably the second best pitcher in the game.

He should try being the best pitcher in the AL Central first.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:17 am 
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America wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Nothing I've seen from Arrieta the last 2 years tells me that he is a candidate to regress to a lesser version of what he currently is. He isn't getting lucky outs and scraping by in innings. He's showing dominant control of his pitches.

He's improved his ability to locate his pitches. That, IMO, is not something that will suddenly then go away. It is possible he could go through a stretch of wildness but it's more likely that he's developed his game to be a top-line starter. This is a stretch of 30+ starts now where he's demonstrated this development.

I think he's a solid, if not very good, #3. I have said this before.

He's not better than Chris Sale. Chris Sale is arguably the second best pitcher in the game.

He is not better than Kershaw or Hernandez.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:42 am 
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Kirkwood wrote:
He should try being the best pitcher in the AL Central first.
So you think Chris Sale sucks. Got it.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:47 am 
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If you think Max Scherzer, David Price or Corey Kluber are better than Chris Sale you are a fucking idiot. I was listening to Cleveland sports radio during the LeBron uncertainty (my once every few years give a fuck about the NBA moment), which ran simultaneous to the Final Vote thing. When Sale won, every host and everyone who called in and said "Well yea, Sale is better so duh."

Sale could also be better than Felix, could. It's arguable. You can make that argument (Sale strikes more batters out and gives up fewer runs). It's not open and shut by any means (Felix pitches more innings at comparable effectiveness to Sale amd walks slightly fewer people). That's a debate you can have.

You can even debate whether Kluber should finish ahead of Sale in Cy Young voting, and I think Kluber should. But finishing ahead of in Cy Young voting does not necessarily make one a better pitcher than another. You look at Sale, who has been nothing short of dominant his entire MLB career, and he's almost as good as it gets. If Sandy Koufax didn't come back to LA as a 20 year old Sale would be the most dominant pitcher in the game.

The fact you won't say, flat out, that Sale is better than Arrieta makes you fucking retarded. Completely, entirely, hopelessly retarded. You should be ashamed.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:58 am 
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America wrote:
If you think Max Scherzer, David Price or Corey Kluber are better than Chris Sale you are a fucking idiot. I was listening to Cleveland sports radio during the LeBron uncertainty (my once every few years give a fuck about the NBA moment), which ran simultaneous to the Final Vote thing. When Sale won, every host and everyone who called in and said "Well yea, Sale is better so duh."

Sale could also be better than Felix, could. It's arguable. You can make that argument (Sale strikes more batters out and gives up fewer runs). It's not open and shut by any means (Felix pitches more innings at comparable effectiveness to Sale amd walks slightly fewer people). That's a debate you can have.

You can even debate whether Kluber should finish ahead of Sale in Cy Young voting, and I think Kluber should. But finishing ahead of in Cy Young voting does not necessarily make one a better pitcher than another. You look at Sale, who has been nothing short of dominant his entire MLB career, and he's almost as good as it gets. If Sandy Koufax didn't come back to LA as a 20 year old Sale would be the most dominant pitcher in the game.

The fact you won't say, flat out, that Sale is better than Arrieta makes you fucking retarded. Completely, entirely, hopelessly retarded. You should be ashamed.

I could care less about Arrieta, and I still won't agree with you about Sale being the 2nd best pitcher in baseball.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:08 am 
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America wrote:
You can even debate whether Kluber should finish ahead of Sale in Cy Young voting

No debate. He should.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:10 am 
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Kirkwood wrote:
America wrote:
You can even debate whether Kluber should finish ahead of Sale in Cy Young voting

No debate. He should.

We agree. That doesn't make Kluber a better pitcher than Sale. And it doesn't make Arrieta better than Sale either.

What's wrong with you? Are you literate? I hope you don't have kids, I don't want to pay for the orderly to wipe the drool off their shirts all day.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:12 am 
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America makes jimmyp & Frank look like calm considered veteran baseball sages.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:13 am 
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Don Tiny wrote:
America makes jimmyp & Frank look like calm considered veteran baseball sages.

He sounds like he is about 15 with all of the name calling or Ike.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:15 am 
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Chris Sale as a starter for the White Sox:

Average of 13-8 W/L, 2.75 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 4.66 K/BB

Jake Arrieta as a starter for the Cubs:

Average of 13-7 W/L, 3.08 ERA, 2.97 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 3.03 K/BB

Just as a comparison. Chris Sale has been slightly better as a White Sox than Jake Arrieta has been as a Cub over the duration of both tenures as starters. But they are extremely close. If Arrieta continues walking no one while striking out everyone and that gap no longer exists.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:17 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Chris Sale as a starter for the White Sox:

Average of 13-8 W/L, 2.75 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 4.66 K/BB

Jake Arrieta as a starter for the Cubs:

Average of 13-7 W/L, 3.08 ERA, 2.97 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 3.03 K/BB

Just as a comparison. Chris Sale has been slightly better as a White Sox than Jake Arrieta has been as a Cub over the duration of both tenures as starters. But they are extremely close. If Arrieta continues walking no one while striking out everyone and that gap no longer exists.
I'm no baseball expert but there seems to be some pretty big holes in your argument here.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:18 am 
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Don Tiny wrote:
America makes jimmyp & Frank look like calm considered veteran baseball sages.

I am working with people who think Jake Arrieta is better than Chris Sale and try to prove it by saying Felix Hernandez is better than Chris Sale. It doesn't make any sense, I cannot figure it out.

Everything about Cubs fans on this board is ass backwards: The worse Alcantara and Baez play the better they will be next year (wut), the longevity of Chris Sale's dominance means he's less ultimately dominant than a guy who's had a very nice season for himself, Jose Abreu being a .370 hitter makes him worse than Anthony Rizzo (a .280 hitter).

What can men do in the face of such reckless stupidity? Do we cower away? Pretend it doesn't exist? No. We must stand and fight. On the beaches, in the air...


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:22 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Chris Sale as a starter for the White Sox:

Average of 13-8 W/L, 2.75 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 4.66 K/BB

Jake Arrieta as a starter for the Cubs:

Average of 13-7 W/L, 3.08 ERA, 2.97 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 3.03 K/BB

Just as a comparison. Chris Sale has been slightly better as a White Sox than Jake Arrieta has been as a Cub over the duration of both tenures as starters. But they are extremely close. If Arrieta continues walking no one while striking out everyone and that gap no longer exists.

...

I can't even. Do you really believe Arrieta is better than Sale? Don't deflect. Make one of two statements: 1. "Sale is better than Arrieta" 2. "Arrieta is better than Sale". I want to read it.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:28 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
I'm no baseball expert but there seems to be some pretty big holes in your argument here.
The biggest hole is that Sale has started 83 games for the Sox (appeared in 80 more), while Arrieta has started 32 games for the Cubs. IMU is correct that the gap will no longer exist if Arrieta performs at a Cy Young level for his next 80 starts :lol:



For his career, Arrieta is 32-32 with a 4.61 ERA (edit- 101 games, 95 as a starter)

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:32 am 
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It also counts Sale's rookie year as a reliever. Cleverly masked by "average wins per year" instead of overall team record. It's bad, he should feel bad.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:32 am 
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America wrote:
Everything about Cubs fans on this board is ass backwards: The worse Alcantara and Baez play the better they will be next year (wut)

Who said that?

And Im not sure anyone really thinks Rizzo is better than Abreu. That argument is about Steve Stone's comment and what the difference between the two truly is


Last edited by rogers park bryan on Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:34 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:33 am 
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Why must it be a comparison? Can we not acknowledge that Sale is a great pitcher and Arrieta is having a good year?? This is just September trolling from two fan bases that have nothing else to root for this year.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:35 am 
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Hank Scorpio wrote:
Why must it be a comparison? Can we not acknowledge that Sale is a great pitcher and Arrieta is having a good year??
#Truth

IMU was the one who said that Arrieta is the most dominant starting pitcher in Chicago. #Untruth
Jake was the best one going last night, I will say that.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:35 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
America wrote:
Everything about Cubs fans on this board is ass backwards: The worse Alcantara and Baez play the better they will be next year (wut)

Who said that?

Cubs fans! As Baez drops further and further into the reaches of historical sucktitude Cubs fans in the other thread are brazenly projecting things like .250 with 25 HR. Then saying things like "Oh yea, that's one of the better 2B in baseball". They do this as he bats in the .160's with a WAR lower than Gordon Beckham in a fraction of the PA's.

It's insanity. Complete and total insanity.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:36 am 
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America wrote:
Don Tiny wrote:
America makes jimmyp & Frank look like calm considered veteran baseball sages.

I am working with people who think Jake Arrieta is better than Chris Sale and try to prove it by saying Felix Hernandez is better than Chris Sale. It doesn't make any sense, I cannot figure it out.

Everything about Cubs fans on this board is ass backwards: The worse Alcantara and Baez play the better they will be next year (wut), the longevity of Chris Sale's dominance means he's less ultimately dominant than a guy who's had a very nice season for himself, Jose Abreu being a .370 hitter makes him worse than Anthony Rizzo (a .280 hitter).

What can men do in the face of such reckless stupidity? Do we cower away? Pretend it doesn't exist? No. We must stand and fight. On the beaches, in the air...


You might find you do better long-term sticking to a style more akin to that.

Chris Sale is better than Arrieta. Not HUGEly, but certainly noticeably.

Next year, it's entirely possible that might not be the case; if so, it's probably just the inverse - noticeably, but not HUGEly.

Right now, though, it is the case that Sale is better.

This ends the intelligent portion of the discussion.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:36 am 
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America wrote:
Jose Abreu being a .370 hitter makes him worse than Anthony Rizzo (a .280 hitter).

:shock:

Where did the extra 50 points of batting average come from?


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:37 am 
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Quintana looked like Sale against the Twins


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:39 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Quintana looked like Arritea against the Twins
8)

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:39 am 
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Don Tiny wrote:
America wrote:
Don Tiny wrote:
America makes jimmyp & Frank look like calm considered veteran baseball sages.

I am working with people who think Jake Arrieta is better than Chris Sale and try to prove it by saying Felix Hernandez is better than Chris Sale. It doesn't make any sense, I cannot figure it out.

Everything about Cubs fans on this board is ass backwards: The worse Alcantara and Baez play the better they will be next year (wut), the longevity of Chris Sale's dominance means he's less ultimately dominant than a guy who's had a very nice season for himself, Jose Abreu being a .370 hitter makes him worse than Anthony Rizzo (a .280 hitter).

What can men do in the face of such reckless stupidity? Do we cower away? Pretend it doesn't exist? No. We must stand and fight. On the beaches, in the air...


You might find you do better long-term sticking to a style more akin to that.

Chris Sale is better than Arrieta. Not HUGEly, but certainly noticeably.

Next year, it's entirely possible that might not be the case; if so, it's probably just the inverse - noticeably, but not HUGEly.

Right now, though, it is the case that Sale is better.

This ends the intelligent portion of the discussion.

It is hugely. Sale has never been anything but fantastic and dominant in MLB. Arrieta (3 years older) is putting up a greatly inferior season to Sale's in a weaker league facing pitchers and has a career ERA that is more than twice the ERA Sale has put up this year. More. Than. Twice.

The gap between Arrieta and Sale is a chasm. A canyon. An ocean.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:40 am 
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I stand by my final sentence.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:41 am 
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So, let's get past the boring part to the fun part.

Assuming both avoid missing more than 2 months of the season next year:
Chris Sale will be better than Arrieta.
Chris Sale will be worse than Arrieta.
Chris Sale will be equal to Arrieta.

Any of the big talking Cubs fans willing to say that Arrieta will be better?

I'll go on record saying Chris Sale will be better than Arrieta next year.

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