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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 1:44 pm 
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TurdFerguson wrote:
America wrote:
fWAR for pitchers is pretty stupid. I say that as a Sox fan, who's team has two pitchers in the top 10. It's basically FIP.

Edit- I like FIP, but if I want FIP I'll go look at FIP. Don't dress up one stat as another.


And FIP likes Arrieta.

1. Kershaw 1.86
2. Arrieta 2.30
3. Sale 2.46
4. Kluber 2.47
5. Hernandez 2.59

Trolling aside, Sale > Arrieta, but I'm not going to say its Sale>>>>>>>>Arrieta. In the spectrum of pitchers, Arrieta is much closer to being a Sale caliber pitcher, than he is to being a good number 3. I don't expect another historically great season from Arrieta, but I do see him as a legitimate number 1 going into next year.

To put Arrieta's current FIP score in perspective, its the 4th lowest FIP score in the the last 10 years. Sale's current year, is 10th on this list.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=140&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2005&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,a

"Min IP: 140"

That should read qualified. In which case Arrieta isn't on there and Sale is 9th. This is why I hate the Cubs and their fans. Everything has to be at or among the best, even if it's not.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 1:50 pm 
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America wrote:
This is why I hate the Cubs and their fans. Everything has to be at or among the best, even if it's not.


Kindda like Sox fans who think their 28th place farm system is a Top 15.

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Last edited by THE INQUISITOR on Wed Sep 17, 2014 2:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 1:51 pm 
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America wrote:
TurdFerguson wrote:
America wrote:
fWAR for pitchers is pretty stupid. I say that as a Sox fan, who's team has two pitchers in the top 10. It's basically FIP.

Edit- I like FIP, but if I want FIP I'll go look at FIP. Don't dress up one stat as another.


And FIP likes Arrieta.

1. Kershaw 1.86
2. Arrieta 2.30
3. Sale 2.46
4. Kluber 2.47
5. Hernandez 2.59

Trolling aside, Sale > Arrieta, but I'm not going to say its Sale>>>>>>>>Arrieta. In the spectrum of pitchers, Arrieta is much closer to being a Sale caliber pitcher, than he is to being a good number 3. I don't expect another historically great season from Arrieta, but I do see him as a legitimate number 1 going into next year.

To put Arrieta's current FIP score in perspective, its the 4th lowest FIP score in the the last 10 years. Sale's current year, is 10th on this list.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=140&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2005&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,a

"Min IP: 140"

That should read qualified. In which case Arrieta isn't on there and Sale is 9th. This is why I hate the Cubs and their fans. Everything has to be at or among the best, even if it's not.


So if he does get in 2 more starts this season totaling 12.1 IP, does that catapult his season, in your eyes, to a historically good season? We are dealing with razor thin absolutes.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 2:53 pm 
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12 IP is barely less than 10% of his entire season to date. This is why they have qualified leaderboards.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 2:54 pm 
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THE INQUISITOR wrote:
America wrote:
This is why I hate the Cubs and their fans. Everything has to be at or among the best, even if it's not.


Kindda like Sox fans who think their 28th place farm system is a Top 15.

It's not 28th nor is it top 15. I really don't care where we find our players, just that we find them. Congratulations to the Cubs on the 2014 Farm System World Series, nobody cares.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:00 pm 
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America has gotten terribly tiresome. I'm officially off the bandwagon.

Cubs/Sox trolling is fun in March-May, gets annoying by June and from the all-star break on it's terrible. In mid September with both teams out of the running its beyond awful. Bears season is here lets focus on what is important.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:01 pm 
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Hank Scorpio wrote:
America has gotten terribly tiresome. I'm officially off the bandwagon.

Cubs/Sox trolling is fun in March-May, gets annoying by June and from the all-star break on it's terrible. In mid September with both teams out of the running its beyond awful. Bears season is here lets focus on what is important.

And be positive, amirite?

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:13 pm 
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Hank Scorpio wrote:
America has gotten terribly tiresome. I'm officially off the bandwagon.

Cubs/Sox trolling is fun in March-May, gets annoying by June and from the all-star break on it's terrible. In mid September with both teams out of the running its beyond awful. Bears season is here lets focus on what is important.

You do know this all sprung from a comment saying Jake Arrieta is the best pitcher in Chicago, right?


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:13 pm 
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America wrote:
Jake Arrieta is the best pitcher in Chicago

I agree.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:14 pm 
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America wrote:
THE INQUISITOR wrote:
America wrote:
This is why I hate the Cubs and their fans. Everything has to be at or among the best, even if it's not.


Kindda like Sox fans who think their 28th place farm system is a Top 15.

It's not 28th nor is it top 15. I really don't care where we find our players, just that we find them. Congratulations to the Cubs on the 2014 Farm System World Series, nobody cares.


27TH SORRY...READ IT AND WEEP

and YOU said they are a Top 15 system over in the Sox section.....


ORGANIZATION STANDINGS • DOMESTIC CLUBS ONLY
No Organizatio W L PCT Playoff
1 Mets+ 434 330 .568 3
2 D-backs+ 431 337 .561 5
3 Rangers 378 314 .546 4
4 Cardinals+ 417 348 .545 4
5 Red Sox 368 328 .529 4
6 Twins 366 327 .528 3
7 Cubs 361 330 .522 3
8 Astros+ 397 368 .519 2
9 Tigers 360 337 .516 2
10 Nationals 358 338 .514 3
11 Athletics 356 338 .513 2
12 Giants 354 342 .509 2
13 Yankees+ 387 373 .509 2
14 Brewers 350 339 .508 2
15 Indians 349 340 .507 4
16 Rays+ 383 376 .505 3
17 Marlins 347 350 .498 2
18 Blue Jays 379 386 .495 2
19 Braves 339 348 .493 2
20 Reds 339 354 .489 2
21 Angels 337 356 .486 5
22 Mariners+ 359 397 .475 1
23 Padres 328 367 .472 2
24 Rockies 332 381 .466 2
25 Orioles 324 373 .465 0
26 Dodgers 316 374 .458 3
27 White Sox 315 376 .456 1
28 Pirates+ 343 420 .450 1
29 Royals 317 387 .450 1
30 Phillies 303 393 .435 0

and the BIG League team ain't finding em either 22nd place 2 WHOLE games ahead of those brutal bulit to lose Cubs....

Hope you enjoyed the last three years of WIN NOW and the nest three years of the RELOAD.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:16 pm 
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THE INQUISITOR wrote:
Hope you enjoyed the last three years of WIN NOW and the nest three years of the RELOAD.
There it is. So the Sox are going to be bad for 6 years in a row?

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:28 pm 
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He's using minor league win % to determine which org had better prospects. That's not how it works, son. I could care less that Winston Salem didn't make the playoffs.

The Cubs have the 7th best used car salesmen in the country. All those years of sucking finally paid off.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:34 pm 
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America wrote:
He's using minor league win % to determine which org had better prospects. That's not how it works, son. I could care less that Winston Salem didn't make the playoffs.
Wait, what?

I missed that. :lol:

Embarrassing. THE INQUISITOR should be suspended for 8 weeks.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:39 pm 
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America wrote:
He's using minor league win % to determine which org had better prospects. That's not how it works, son. I could care less that Winston Salem didn't make the playoffs.

The Cubs have the 7th best used car salesmen in the country. All those years of sucking finally paid off.


ask JORR all that matters is WINS....

and if you look at prospect ranking preseason and mid season... the Cubs were TOP 3 by all sources.
and had 3 in the TOP 10 4 in the Top 33

Your Sox ... NADA...ZERO...GOOSE EGG

Yuo understand those numbers....

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:41 pm 
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THE INQUISITOR wrote:
America wrote:
He's using minor league win % to determine which org had better prospects. That's not how it works, son. I could care less that Winston Salem didn't make the playoffs.

The Cubs have the 7th best used car salesmen in the country. All those years of sucking finally paid off.


ask JORR all that matters is WINS....

and if you look at prospect ranking preseason and mid season... the Cubs were TOP 3 by all sources.
and had 3 in the TOP 10 4 in the Top 33

Your Sox ... NADA...ZERO...GOOSE EGG

Yuo understand those numbers....

The Brewers were supposed to be the worst and finished 14th on the list provided.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:41 pm 
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What a horrible turn this thread has taken. THE INQUISITOR is embarrassing all of Cubbie Nation.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:44 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
What a horrible turn this thread has taken. THE INQUISITOR is embarrassing all of Cubbie Nation.


How is THAT .500 record for your SOX prediction going there BRICK..talk about an embarrassment that one is an ALL TIMER

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:45 pm 
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THE INQUISITOR wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
What a horrible turn this thread has taken. THE INQUISITOR is embarrassing all of Cubbie Nation.


How is THAT .500 record for your SOX prediction going there BRICK..talk about an embarrassment that one is an ALL TIMER
Please bump that prediction. Thanks.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:45 pm 
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THE INQUISITOR wrote:
America wrote:
He's using minor league win % to determine which org had better prospects. That's not how it works, son. I could care less that Winston Salem didn't make the playoffs.

The Cubs have the 7th best used car salesmen in the country. All those years of sucking finally paid off.


ask JORR all that matters is WINS....

and if you look at prospect ranking preseason and mid season... the Cubs were TOP 3 by all sources.
and had 3 in the TOP 10 4 in the Top 33

Your Sox ... NADA...ZERO...GOOSE EGG

Yuo understand those numbers....


So did the Royals in 2011. They might squeeze into the playoffs this year. I follow farm systems but I know the success rate on a top 100 player is about 20%.

I am not JORR. I am America.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:48 pm 
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America wrote:
THE INQUISITOR wrote:
America wrote:
He's using minor league win % to determine which org had better prospects. That's not how it works, son. I could care less that Winston Salem didn't make the playoffs.

The Cubs have the 7th best used car salesmen in the country. All those years of sucking finally paid off.


ask JORR all that matters is WINS....

and if you look at prospect ranking preseason and mid season... the Cubs were TOP 3 by all sources.
and had 3 in the TOP 10 4 in the Top 33

Your Sox ... NADA...ZERO...GOOSE EGG

Yuo understand those numbers....


So did the Royals in 2011. They might squeeze into the playoffs this year. I follow farm systems but I know the success rate on a top 100 player is about 20%.

I am not JORR. I am America.


And yet, you say Rodon will be a sure thing and that the Sox will have the best 1, 2, 3 in baseball next season.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:49 pm 
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It's official. THE INQUISITOR has doubled down on his embarrassment. I can't find any place where I predicted a .500 record.

bigfan,
Please ban THE INQUISITOR for 8 weeks.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:52 pm 
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Big Chicagoan wrote:
America wrote:
THE INQUISITOR wrote:
America wrote:
He's using minor league win % to determine which org had better prospects. That's not how it works, son. I could care less that Winston Salem didn't make the playoffs.

The Cubs have the 7th best used car salesmen in the country. All those years of sucking finally paid off.


ask JORR all that matters is WINS....

and if you look at prospect ranking preseason and mid season... the Cubs were TOP 3 by all sources.
and had 3 in the TOP 10 4 in the Top 33

Your Sox ... NADA...ZERO...GOOSE EGG

Yuo understand those numbers....


So did the Royals in 2011. They might squeeze into the playoffs this year. I follow farm systems but I know the success rate on a top 100 player is about 20%.

I am not JORR. I am America.


And yet, you say Rodon will be a sure thing and that the Sox will have the best 1, 2, 3 in baseball next season.

Pitchers are a little different. As long as they can still locate their stuff in the bigs you can tell when a guy has MLB stuff by watching him. It's a lot easier to project.

The risk for pitchers comes from injuries. Nobody knows anything about what causes those.

I said if Rodon lives up to my 3.5-3.75 ERA projection BARRING INJURY the Sox have one of the best 1-2-3's in the game. And I'm right. It's not complicated.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:54 pm 
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America wrote:
So did the Royals in 2011. They might squeeze into the playoffs this year. I follow farm systems but I know the success rate on a top 100 player is about 20%.

I am not JORR. I am America.

I believe RPB posted a few tables of a research project a Royals blog performed. Top 100 is very broad and you are probably correct in bust rate.

But, pitchers are notoriously unreliable leading to the acronym TINSTAAPP.

Second, top 10 prospects and especially position players in the top 10 have a much higher success rate.

But you already knew all the above. The above are just wearing the wrong jersey. :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:54 pm 
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So you're already predicting Rodon to be better than Arrieta?

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:56 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
So you're already predicting Rodon to be better than Arrieta?


And Semien being better than Rodon. It's a lock. America has spoken.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 4:02 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
So you're already predicting Rodon to be better than Arrieta?

I would make that trade. I am loathe to Rodon's agent.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 4:05 pm 
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America wrote:
Big Chicagoan wrote:
America wrote:
THE INQUISITOR wrote:
ask JORR all that matters is WINS....

and if you look at prospect ranking preseason and mid season... the Cubs were TOP 3 by all sources.
and had 3 in the TOP 10 4 in the Top 33

Your Sox ... NADA...ZERO...GOOSE EGG

Yuo understand those numbers....


So did the Royals in 2011. They might squeeze into the playoffs this year. I follow farm systems but I know the success rate on a top 100 player is about 20%.

I am not JORR. I am America.


And yet, you say Rodon will be a sure thing and that the Sox will have the best 1, 2, 3 in baseball next season.

Pitchers are a little different. As long as they can still locate their stuff in the bigs you can tell when a guy has MLB stuff by watching him. It's a lot easier to project.

The risk for pitchers comes from injuries. Nobody knows anything about what causes those.

I said if Rodon lives up to my 3.5-3.75 ERA projection BARRING INJURY the Sox have one of the best 1-2-3's in the game. And I'm right. It's not complicated.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 4:07 pm 
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As for TINSTAAP, it's a bit outdated or misundetstood. Injuries play a big part in it, and are part of the reason it's perpetuated itself, but to convince me Matt Harvey or Jose Fernandez would've fallen apart anyway if they had not been hurt is silly.

If a guy has a 95+ fastball with bat missing breaking stuff the only real hurdle to getting major leaguers out is maintaining an ability to locate his pitches. I do not know if Rodon will lose his location in the bigs, recent history of White Sox top flight arms suggests he won't. But he could.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 4:11 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
THE INQUISITOR wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
What a horrible turn this thread has taken. THE INQUISITOR is embarrassing all of Cubbie Nation.


How is THAT .500 record for your SOX prediction going there BRICK..talk about an embarrassment that one is an ALL TIMER
Please bump that prediction. Thanks.


Here ya go ...you are the official sea lawyer here so you know what this means....

Boilermaker Rick wrote:
THE INQUISITOR wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
3 games from monumental.


and you were saying?
3 games from monumental!

It's been a long road to get back to striking distance but we are doing it!


Read between the lines and infer like you do to everyone else...you thought this was going to happen and be monumental.

now go into back the corner .....

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 4:13 pm 
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That was not a prediction. Not even close.

It was a statement of where they were and how they were now within striking distance of a monumental season.

Please apologize or be prepared for me to PM bigfan to have you banned for 8 weeks.

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