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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 12:38 pm 
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Kirkwood wrote:
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ERA Minus, FIP Minus, and xFIP Minus are the pitching version of OPS+ and wRC+: a simple way to tell how well a player performed in relation to league average. All of these statistics have a similar scale, where 100 is league average and each point above or below 100 represents a percent above or below league average. However, as lower is better for (almost) all pitching stats, a lower ERA- or FIP- is better.

2014 Jake Arrieta:
ERA-: 71
FIP-: 61

2013 Chris Sale:
ERA-: 72
FIP-: 76

2012 Chris Sale:
ERA-: 74
FIP-: 77

I thought IMU was full of BS when first posting but might have a point.
You guys are working pretty hard to say Arrieta is better than Sale without actually saying Arrieta is better than Sale.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 12:44 pm 
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I don't think he's better than Sale. Though, now if we talk Kyle Hendricks thats a different story. Len said he's like Greg Maddux. :D


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 12:45 pm 
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Kirkwood wrote:
I don't think he's better than Sale. Though, now if we talk Kyle Hendricks thats a different story. Len said he's like Greg Maddux. :D
Of course you don't.

But then we get statistics saying he is better than Sale.

Still better than the Rizzo/Abreu stolen bases dominance though. :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 1:51 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Kirkwood wrote:
I don't think he's better than Sale. Though, now if we talk Kyle Hendricks thats a different story. Len said he's like Greg Maddux. :D
Of course you don't.

But then we get statistics saying he is better than Sale.


I agree with you.

It does look like he's better than Sale.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 1:59 pm 
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If you're building a team for one year and had the choice between Arrieta and Sale, would anybody take Arrieta?


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:00 pm 
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WestmontMike wrote:
If you're building a team for one year and had the choice between Arrieta and Sale, would anybody take Arrieta?


No, not at this time. Arrieta has to prove this isnt a fluke.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:01 pm 
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Hank Scorpio wrote:
WestmontMike wrote:
If you're building a team for one year and had the choice between Arrieta and Sale, would anybody take Arrieta?


No, not at this time. Arrieta has to prove this isnt a fluke.


Yes, he has to prove he can continue to be better than Sale.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:15 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
WestmontMike wrote:
If you're building a team for one year and had the choice between Arrieta and Sale, would anybody take Arrieta?


No, not at this time. Arrieta has to prove this isnt a fluke.


Yes, he has to prove he can continue to be better than Sale.


i like the way you think


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:16 pm 
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WestmontMike wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
WestmontMike wrote:
If you're building a team for one year and had the choice between Arrieta and Sale, would anybody take Arrieta?


No, not at this time. Arrieta has to prove this isnt a fluke.


Yes, he has to prove he can continue to be better than Sale.


i like the way you think

Careful Mike, that can get you in more trouble than Erin Andrews.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:18 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
WestmontMike wrote:
If you're building a team for one year and had the choice between Arrieta and Sale, would anybody take Arrieta?


No, not at this time. Arrieta has to prove this isnt a fluke.


Yes, he has to prove he can continue to be better than Sale.
Thank you for being more open with it than others.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:37 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Because Sale rarely gets to face pitchers. And he plays home games in the same friendly launching pad that you have insisred has helped Abreu all season.

Uhhh...he is playing in that same launching pad this season.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:48 pm 
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Hank Scorpio wrote:
immessedup17 wrote:
Inquisitor and America are bad.


Agreed. They both need to take lessons at the Good Dolphin School of Chicago Baseball Trolling. My god can that man troll. It's like watching Wood throw the greatest game in MLB history.


Like Rizzo and Samardzija, I fade down the stretch.

I do expect I'll be able to keep my strength up when The(o) Plan is providing October baseball

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:19 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Because Sale rarely gets to face pitchers. And he plays home games in the same friendly launching pad that you have insisred has helped Abreu all season.

Uhhh...he is playing in that same launching pad this season.


No shit. So if it's helping Abreu, it's hurting Sale. Pitching is hitting. Hitting is pitching. How the fuck does xFIP adjust for that? And for Arrieta striking out pitchers. Is s fraction of a run per game huge or not? You guys should really decide. Because I'm sure facing a pitcher instead of a professional hitter accounts for some fraction.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:34 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
immessedup17 wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Because Sale rarely gets to face pitchers. And he plays home games in the same friendly launching pad that you have insisred has helped Abreu all season.

Uhhh...he is playing in that same launching pad this season.


No shit. So if it's helping Abreu, it's hurting Sale. Pitching is hitting. Hitting is pitching. How the fuck does xFIP adjust for that? And for Arrieta striking out pitchers. Is s fraction of a run per game huge or not? You guys should really decide. Because I'm sure facing a pitcher instead of a professional hitter accounts for some fraction.

Oh, so you want adjusted ERA+ which factors in league and ballpark?

2014 Arrieta: 145
2013 Sale: 137
2012 Sale: 140

What else do you have?

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:35 pm 
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Image

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:51 pm 
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IMU has Sox Subdivision on the ropes!!!

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:09 pm 
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:lol: He's swung and missed more often than not. You throw 1100 punches in a fight, you're bound to land a few.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:14 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Arrieta's 2014 has been better than Sale's 2012 or 2013.


True.

One thing to consider is that Jake has pitched about 150 innings while Sale pitched another 50 or so innings in each of those years. And while their stats are already very similar to the point where the differences are almost statistically irrelevant. Through 150 innings in 2013 and 2012, Sale's stats are almost identical to Arrieta's are this year. ERA of 2.77 and 2.65, whip of 1.058 and 1.033.

So what did i learn from looking up those stats? Nothing. You're welcome.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:15 pm 
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Hank Scorpio wrote:
IMU has Sox Subdivision on the ropes!!!


They're down for the count, Hank. Down.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:47 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
:lol: He's swung and missed more often than not. You throw 1100 punches in a fight, you're bound to land a few.


:lol: :lol: And he doesn't even understand ERA+. Maybe THE INQUISITOR can explain it to him.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:48 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
:lol: He's swung and missed more often than not. You throw 1100 punches in a fight, you're bound to land a few.


:lol: :lol: And he doesn't even understand ERA+. Maybe THE INQUISITOR can explain it to him.
Be careful. You'll lose all your mults if you get into it with him. :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 5:34 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
:lol: He's swung and missed more often than not. You throw 1100 punches in a fight, you're bound to land a few.


:lol: :lol: And he doesn't even understand ERA+. Maybe THE INQUISITOR can explain it to him.

Please let us know where you take exception.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 5:49 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
:lol: He's swung and missed more often than not. You throw 1100 punches in a fight, you're bound to land a few.


:lol: :lol: And he doesn't even understand ERA+. Maybe THE INQUISITOR can explain it to him.

Please let us know where you take exception.


Arrieta's ERA+ is unrelated to Sale's. It's based on the league average ERA and adjusted.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 5:59 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
immessedup17 wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
:lol: He's swung and missed more often than not. You throw 1100 punches in a fight, you're bound to land a few.


:lol: :lol: And he doesn't even understand ERA+. Maybe THE INQUISITOR can explain it to him.

Please let us know where you take exception.


Arrieta's ERA+ is unrelated to Sale's. It's based on the league average ERA and adjusted.

Yes.

And that number is a reflection of how much better he is than his peers. And you are the number one propopent around here of 'you can only play the games you play against the people you play against and the ballparks you play in.' And ERA+ shows that Arrieta has dominated his game situations in 2014 better than Sale did in either 2012 or 2013.

Arrieta has separated himself from other NL pitchers more than Sale has separated himself from other AL pitchers.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 6:09 pm 
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So how can you compare two guys using a number based on their peers when they have different peers? For that matter, how can you compare them using 'offense against" numbers when one guy faces pitchers and the other does not?

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 7:35 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
immessedup17 wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Because Sale rarely gets to face pitchers. And he plays home games in the same friendly launching pad that you have insisred has helped Abreu all season.

Uhhh...he is playing in that same launching pad this season.


No shit. So if it's helping Abreu, it's hurting Sale. Pitching is hitting. Hitting is pitching. How the fuck does xFIP adjust for that? And for Arrieta striking out pitchers. Is s fraction of a run per game huge or not? You guys should really decide. Because I'm sure facing a pitcher instead of a professional hitter accounts for some fraction.


This year PPFP

Sale 101.1
Arrieta 104.7

100 would be neutral. Over 100 is hitter friendly. Under 100 is pitcher friendly.

Based on these numbers Jake has pitched more often in hitter friendly parks this season then Chris. The numbers are adjusted for actual innings pitched by park.

OK JORR here is the definition from Baseball Reference

PPFp, Custom Park Factors

Since we have gamelogs, we can also customize our park factors to the parks the pitcher actually pitched in. This can have an impact in a division like the NL West where you have three fairly extreme pitcher parks and two fairly extreme hitter parks. Usually, pitchers' custom park factors are less than a point away from their teams' park factor, but on occasion it can be multiple points. For pre-gamelog seasons, we use the team's park factor. All park factors are 3-year.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 7:42 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
So how can you compare two guys using a number based on their peers when they have different peers? For that matter, how can you compare them using 'offense against" numbers when one guy faces pitchers and the other does not?

So what you're now saying is that you cannot compare pitchers based on wins since they are facing different schedules / teams / lineups?

How are you going to weasel out of this? I'm intrigued.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 7:43 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
So how can you compare two guys using a number based on their peers when they have different peers? For that matter, how can you compare them using 'offense against" numbers when one guy faces pitchers and the other does not?

So what you're now saying is that you cannot compare pitchers based on wins since they are facing different schedules / teams / lineups?



Oh this should be good.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 10:10 pm 
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A decision is not dependent on conditions the same way these other measures are. Why would you expect a guy facing a nine hitter lineup to allow as few runs or hits as a guy facing eight hitters and a near automatic out?

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 10:16 pm 
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:lol: :lol:

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