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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 1:37 pm 
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The DH is terrible, get rid of it.

If it is going to be kept, there should be a rule that says there DH must bat 9th. That would take away from the fat blobs that are DH that don't even own a glove.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 1:40 pm 
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WestmontMike wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
WestmontMike wrote:

It is necessarily true. The difference between an AL lineup and an NL lineup is the DH v the pitcher. Where anyone bats in the order has no bearing on this.


I understand your point but teams build their rosters differently based on the league. You can live with not as much power at a typical power postion because you rely on the DH. I think you compare the 9 spot because it's the worst hitter in the lineup. Whether that is the pitcher or a 2B shouldnt really matter.

If it was truly comparing the P v DH, wouldnt the total runs scored per league skew much higher to the AL. I think typically the numbers are close.


Sure, I get it, but your kinda making my greater point. There are so many differences between the leagues that you can't just look at one thing and draw an absolute conclusion.


I agree, its hard to draw an absolute conclusion on a lot of baseball debates. I just think at some point you have to try to compare the leagues as best you can. It's all MLB, we cant ignore half the teams, especially with so much interleague and free agency movement.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 1:56 pm 
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WestmontMike wrote:
Sure, I get it, but your kinda making my greater point. There are so many differences between the leagues that you can't just look at one thing and draw an absolute conclusion.

The average AL team has scored 34 more runs than the average NL team. If a starter starts every fifth game, that is .22 runs per game for that starter, as it would be 6.8 runs total and we're splitting it over 30 starts. Let's say that Arrieta somehow gave up all 6.8 in his innings during those games, and let's say they were all somehow earned runs. Again and as before, worst case scenario for Arrieta in this theory. Arrieta now has a 3.00 ERA in this worst case scenario. Chris Sale's ERA in 2012-2013? 3.06 combined.

And even then, we understand that not all runs given up in a ballgame are earned, and not all runs given up in a ballgame are tagged onto the starter.

edit: For full transparency, I factored in 6 runs as JORR understands you cannot have .8 runs in the game of baseball. So if we were to do 6.8, it would be 3.05 ERA.

If you take Arrieta's 3.00 ERA (or 3.05 ERA) and adjust it to ERA+ using AL's variable of lgERA, Arrieta remains superior. Even in a worst case scenario.

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Last edited by IMU on Fri Sep 19, 2014 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 1:59 pm 
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They are both no Edwin Jackson, I will give them that much.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:01 pm 
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Wow. IMU is showing domination that hasn't been seen in quite sometime.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:07 pm 
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Hank Scorpio wrote:
I agree, its hard to draw an absolute conclusion on a lot of baseball debates. I just think at some point you have to try to compare the leagues as best you can. It's all MLB, we cant ignore half the teams, especially with so much interleague and free agency movement.


Of course, but in the case of Arrieta v Sale, the difference is so marginal when everything is taken into account. You could say, as IMU is saying, that Arrieta's 2014 is better than Sale's 2012 and 2013. Although I don't see what the point of that is.
You could also argue the opposite. The numbers are so close that the argument ends up being about everything except the players.

I like sports debate when there's something to argue. I remember when Grace and Thomas were the city's first baseman and people would actually argue who's better. Next to nothing about those two guys was similar so it made for a more interesting debate despite the obviousness of it.


Last edited by WestmontMike on Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:11 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
WestmontMike wrote:
Sure, I get it, but your kinda making my greater point. There are so many differences between the leagues that you can't just look at one thing and draw an absolute conclusion.

The average AL team has scored 34 more runs than the average NL team. If a starter starts every fifth game, that is .22 runs per game for that starter, as it would be 6.8 runs total and we're splitting it over 30 starts. Let's say that Arrieta somehow gave up all 6.8 in his innings during those games, and let's say they were all somehow earned runs. Again and as before, worst case scenario for Arrieta in this theory. Arrieta now has a 3.00 ERA in this worst case scenario. Chris Sale's ERA in 2012-2013? 3.06 combined.

And even then, we understand that not all runs given up in a ballgame are earned, and not all runs given up in a ballgame are tagged onto the starter.

edit: For full transparency, I factored in 6 runs as JORR understands you cannot have .8 runs in the game of baseball. So if we were to do 6.8, it would be 3.05 ERA.

If you take Arrieta's 3.00 ERA (or 3.05 ERA) and adjust it to ERA+ using AL's variable of lgERA, Arrieta remains superior. Even in a worst case scenario.


so now you're basing clear superiority on a 0.06 (or 0.01 or whatever it is you're calculating) difference in ERA?
Got it. Now it all makes sense.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:12 pm 
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WestmontMike wrote:
immessedup17 wrote:
WestmontMike wrote:
Sure, I get it, but your kinda making my greater point. There are so many differences between the leagues that you can't just look at one thing and draw an absolute conclusion.

The average AL team has scored 34 more runs than the average NL team. If a starter starts every fifth game, that is .22 runs per game for that starter, as it would be 6.8 runs total and we're splitting it over 30 starts. Let's say that Arrieta somehow gave up all 6.8 in his innings during those games, and let's say they were all somehow earned runs. Again and as before, worst case scenario for Arrieta in this theory. Arrieta now has a 3.00 ERA in this worst case scenario. Chris Sale's ERA in 2012-2013? 3.06 combined.

And even then, we understand that not all runs given up in a ballgame are earned, and not all runs given up in a ballgame are tagged onto the starter.

edit: For full transparency, I factored in 6 runs as JORR understands you cannot have .8 runs in the game of baseball. So if we were to do 6.8, it would be 3.05 ERA.

If you take Arrieta's 3.00 ERA (or 3.05 ERA) and adjust it to ERA+ using AL's variable of lgERA, Arrieta remains superior. Even in a worst case scenario.


so now you're basing clear superiority on a 0.06 (or 0.01 or whatever it is you're calculating) difference in ERA?
Got it. Now it all makes sense.

Let's just call it superiority. I'll leave it up to the individual to decide how large or small the superiority is. I'm presenting statistics and facts. Giving up less runs is better than giving up more runs.

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Last edited by IMU on Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:12 pm 
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Jake Arrieta has a career ERA above 4.50. I'd just like to remind everyone of that.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:13 pm 
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IMU drew an incorrect conclusion. Seems like the difference is statistically irrelevant, not Arietta being superior.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:14 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
I'm presenting statistics and facts.
Wait, are you trolling still or not?

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:14 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
WestmontMike wrote:
immessedup17 wrote:
WestmontMike wrote:
Sure, I get it, but your kinda making my greater point. There are so many differences between the leagues that you can't just look at one thing and draw an absolute conclusion.

The average AL team has scored 34 more runs than the average NL team. If a starter starts every fifth game, that is .22 runs per game for that starter, as it would be 6.8 runs total and we're splitting it over 30 starts. Let's say that Arrieta somehow gave up all 6.8 in his innings during those games, and let's say they were all somehow earned runs. Again and as before, worst case scenario for Arrieta in this theory. Arrieta now has a 3.00 ERA in this worst case scenario. Chris Sale's ERA in 2012-2013? 3.06 combined.

And even then, we understand that not all runs given up in a ballgame are earned, and not all runs given up in a ballgame are tagged onto the starter.

edit: For full transparency, I factored in 6 runs as JORR understands you cannot have .8 runs in the game of baseball. So if we were to do 6.8, it would be 3.05 ERA.

If you take Arrieta's 3.00 ERA (or 3.05 ERA) and adjust it to ERA+ using AL's variable of lgERA, Arrieta remains superior. Even in a worst case scenario.


so now you're basing clear superiority on a 0.06 (or 0.01 or whatever it is you're calculating) difference in ERA?
Got it. Now it all makes sense.

Let's just call it superiority. I'll leave it up to the individual to decide how large or small the superiority is.


Arrieta's ERA is better, yes. His season? Yes, no, about the same. All good answers.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:15 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
immessedup17 wrote:
I'm presenting statistics and facts.
Wait, are you trolling still or not?


Either way, he's dominating.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:18 pm 
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leash has started his weekend a little early.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:25 pm 
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I found Jake Arrieta

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl ... position=P

He's even got the one year of finding a cutter similarity.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:38 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leash has started his weekend a little early.

Very troubling to see a once promising poster reduced to being IMU's water carrier.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:39 pm 
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WestmontMike wrote:
immessedup17 wrote:
WestmontMike wrote:
You're comparing the 9 spot in the order when you should compare the pitcher vs the DH. That's the difference between the leagues, the DH... DH's don't usually hit 9th in the order.

Fair enough. But again, ERA+ and ERA- have already taken care of this for us.


No, it doesn't. It doesn't at all. They're not in the same league.


Correct. All ERA+ does is compare a pitcher's adjusted ERA to other pitchers in the same league in a given season.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:43 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leash has started his weekend a little early.

Very troubling to see a once promising poster reduced to being IMU's water carrier.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:45 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
What is the best stat to compare NL vs AL starters?


Well, according to JORR, they are paid to win games wherever they are. But if they're in different leagues, that changes everything.


Image :lol: :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:48 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:54 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
What is the best stat to compare NL vs AL starters?


Well, according to JORR, they are paid to win games wherever they are. But if they're in different leagues, that changes everything.


At lesst a man's W/L record compares him to guys he actually faced rather than a tortured comparison of numbers generated in different leagues with different rules.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:55 pm 
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I guess nobody wants to talk about the Esteban Loaiza comp.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:55 pm 
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America wrote:
Jake Arrieta has a career ERA above 4.50. I'd just like to remind everyone of that.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:56 pm 
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America wrote:
I guess nobody wants to talk about the Esteban Loaiza comp.


I think nobody wants to talk to you. :P

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:58 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
What is the best stat to compare NL vs AL starters?


Well, according to JORR, they are paid to win games wherever they are. But if they're in different leagues, that changes everything.


At lesst a man's W/L record compares him to guys he actually faced rather than a tortured comparison of numbers generated in different leagues with different rules.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 3:01 pm 
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CAREER WAR
Chris Sale 22.5
Jake Arrieta 5.3


Also, in 2012 and 2013 Sale finished 6th and 5th respectively in the Cy Arrieta voting. We'll see where exactly where ol' Jake ends up this year.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 3:08 pm 
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Hank Scorpio wrote:
America wrote:
I guess nobody wants to talk about the Esteban Loaiza comp.


I think nobody wants to talk to you. :P

It is a little uncomfortable to the bizarre delusional Cubs narrative here.


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 3:45 pm 
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America wrote:
I guess nobody wants to talk about the Esteban Loaiza comp.

Yeah, that's another guy who had an awesome year out of nowhere. He was a bit older.

We'll see.

Maybe the Cubs will trade Arrieta for a guy who ends up winning 16 consecutive games


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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 4:06 pm 
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That, is what we call in the business, a steal.

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 Post subject: Re: Arrieta!!
PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 4:50 pm 
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America wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
America wrote:
I guess nobody wants to talk about the Esteban Loaiza comp.


I think nobody wants to talk to you. :P

It is a little uncomfortable to the bizarre delusional Cubs narrative here.


And yet you can't stop posting here.


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