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 Post subject: Jon Lester
PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2014 8:36 pm 
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OK Cubs fans.

Should we offer 5/100? 5/125? 6/140 or don't go beyond 4/80??

The guy has the pedigree and they need a top shelf starter but is this the guy they bite the bullet with and cough up the cash??


Last edited by cpguy on Tue Sep 30, 2014 6:55 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: John Lester
PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2014 9:04 pm 
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I saw 5 years, $110 million. I would be surprised if they do it. I think they are still a year or two away from making a big splash in free agency. Besides, they are seeing some success with picking off the Orioles staff (Arrieta, Strop, Hammel, Wada):

https://sports.vice.com/article/you-got-played-how-the-cubs-salvaged-the-orioles-failed-pitching-prospects

I think eventually you look at a staff that has Hendricks, Arrieta, Wood, Wada or Turner. Not good, but it shows progress, right?

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 Post subject: Re: John Lester
PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2014 9:08 pm 
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Crystal Lake Hoffy wrote:
I saw 5 years, $110 million. I would be surprised if they do it. I think they are still a year or two away from making a big splash in free agency. Besides, they are seeing some success with picking off the Orioles staff (Arrieta, Strop, Hammel, Wada):

https://sports.vice.com/article/you-got-played-how-the-cubs-salvaged-the-orioles-failed-pitching-prospects

I think eventually you look at a staff that has Hendricks, Arrieta, Wood, Wada or Turner. Not good, but it shows progress, right?


Wood sucked last year and Wada is nothing more than a 5th starter. Turner has a chance to be good but I think they need to go hard after Lester.


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 Post subject: Re: John Lester
PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2014 9:11 pm 
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Crystal Lake Hoffy wrote:
I saw 5 years, $110 million. I would be surprised if they do it. I think they are still a year or two away from making a big splash in free agency. Besides, they are seeing some success with picking off the Orioles staff (Arrieta, Strop, Hammel, Wada):

https://sports.vice.com/article/you-got-played-how-the-cubs-salvaged-the-orioles-failed-pitching-prospects

I think eventually you look at a staff that has Hendricks, Arrieta, Wood, Wada or Turner. Not good, but it shows progress, right?


eventually? How about this past year...that was the staff for the last month...and Wood earned himself a demotion or a short leash at best

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 Post subject: Re: John Lester
PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2014 9:12 pm 
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As I said, not good, but its progress. I would like to see them have one or two guys they have drafted as a 3-5 in the rotation. If they are above .500 next year, I wouldn't mind if they went after a number 1-2 starter in free agency. The problem is that they don't come cheap.

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 Post subject: Re: John Lester
PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2014 9:12 pm 
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bigfan wrote:
Crystal Lake Hoffy wrote:
I saw 5 years, $110 million. I would be surprised if they do it. I think they are still a year or two away from making a big splash in free agency. Besides, they are seeing some success with picking off the Orioles staff (Arrieta, Strop, Hammel, Wada):

https://sports.vice.com/article/you-got-played-how-the-cubs-salvaged-the-orioles-failed-pitching-prospects

I think eventually you look at a staff that has Hendricks, Arrieta, Wood, Wada or Turner. Not good, but it shows progress, right?


eventually? How about this past year...that was the staff for the last month...and Wood earned himself a demotion or a short leash at best


Yeah, I avoided baseball this year.

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 Post subject: Re: John Lester
PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2014 9:57 pm 
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Better John than his brother Mo.


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 Post subject: Re: John Lester
PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2014 10:04 pm 
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5/$115m


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 Post subject: Re: John Lester
PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2014 10:20 pm 
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I'd start with offering to spell his name right.

Signing him is a death sentence for whatever franchise is stupid enough to acquire him. I'd give him $10m/year for 3 years, thats the max. Anything more is idiotic.


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 Post subject: Re: John Lester
PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2014 10:42 pm 
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America wrote:
I'd start with offering to spell his name right.

Signing him is a death sentence for whatever franchise is stupid enough to acquire him. I'd give him $10m/year for 3 years, thats the max. Anything more is idiotic.

This makes me a lot more comfortable with...

4Y/$95M or 5Y/$110M

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 Post subject: Re: John Lester
PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2014 10:43 pm 
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Who is John Lester?

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 Post subject: Re: John Lester
PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2014 11:33 pm 
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Why should anyone want to pay a guy who will be 31 on opening day huge money? Has anyone not even looked around the league at all?


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 Post subject: Re: John Lester
PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 6:22 am 
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America wrote:
Why should anyone want to pay a guy who will be 31 on opening day huge money? Has anyone not even looked around the league at all?

Because a pitcher can easily be in his prime in his young 30's.

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 Post subject: Re: John Lester
PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:27 am 
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Crystal Lake Hoffy wrote:
As I said, not good, but its progress. I would like to see them have one or two guys they have drafted as a 3-5 in the rotation. If they are above .500 next year, I wouldn't mind if they went after a number 1-2 starter in free agency. The problem is that they don't come cheap.


The Cubs have plenty of cash. Waiting another year or two would be foolish from a baseball standpoint, especially with the free agents out there this year...it's not like Ricketts is going to take the extra profits from the last several years and then spend it. And no one was probably happier than Ricketts that Tanaka got hurt--he can point to that as another reason to keep giving lowball offers.

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 Post subject: Re: Jon Lester
PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 11:40 am 
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I'd rather they go after David Price.

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 Post subject: Re: Jon Lester
PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 11:47 am 
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It's not my money, so I guess I shouldn't care. But we all know teams have budgets and a finite amount of cash to spend in any given year. As such, I view these free agent pitchers in the context of what are we sacrificing to get a certain guy. If they sign Lester for $110M, then that is $110M not spent elsewhere. I am not in favor of signing 30+ year old players to expensive long term deals. My thought would change if they were only a player or two away.

My preference is to trade some farm system talent for a younger pitcher who is under control. If he pitches well, then buyout his free agency/arbitration years with a long term deal.

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 Post subject: Re: Jon Lester
PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 11:48 am 
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I'd rather the Cubs bring in another 3 or 4 decent starters to add quantity to the pitching staff. Epstein has done a great job weeding out some solid guys on the cheap.

I'm hoping for Russel Martin and a couple of veteran bats to fill out some areas that need it.

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 Post subject: Re: Jon Lester
PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 12:00 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
My preference is to trade some farm system talent for a younger pitcher who is under control.


It's hard to find that guy. And it's probably harder to shake him loose with the kind of guys you want the Cubs to trade. If I said Archie Bradley for Bryant, you probably say no, but I'd give up Castro. Anyway, how often do you see good young guys swapped for each other? The best way to get a promising young guy is to leverage him out of a team that is in contention before the deadline. The Cubs squeezed Arrieta out of Baltimore that way. It just isn't that easy to do.

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 Post subject: Re: Jon Lester
PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 12:03 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
denisdman wrote:
My preference is to trade some farm system talent for a younger pitcher who is under control.


It's hard to find that guy. And it's probably harder to shake him loose with the kind of guys you want the Cubs to trade. If I said Archie Bradley for Bryant, you probably say no, but I'd give up Castro. Anyway, how often do you see good young guys swapped for each other? The best way to get a promising young guy is to leverage him out of a team that is in contention before the deadline. The Cubs squeezed Arrieta out of Baltimore that way. It just isn't that easy to do.



JORR, do you think big money pitching free agents past the age of 30 are a better way to go? It seems like a lot more wasted money. I'd rather spread the money around for depth. Again, it's a fixed pot of payroll dollars to be spent.

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 Post subject: Re: Jon Lester
PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 12:15 pm 
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I would love to know the history of signing players over 30 to long term contracts. I am guessing it is not good.

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 Post subject: Re: Jon Lester
PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 12:18 pm 
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conns7901 wrote:
I would love to know the history of signing players over 30 to long term contracts. I am guessing it is not good.

Definitely bad.

But definition of long is changing. 5 years for a pitcher seems almost standard now


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 Post subject: Re: Jon Lester
PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 12:19 pm 
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conns7901 wrote:
I would love to know the history of signing players over 30 to long term contracts. I am guessing it is not good.


Even a "safe" signing like Pujols has been a lot of wasted money. His numbers are good, but they are way off from where they were and no where near in line with his contract.


http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?play ... pe=%27R%27

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 Post subject: Re: Jon Lester
PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 12:21 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
denisdman wrote:
My preference is to trade some farm system talent for a younger pitcher who is under control.


It's hard to find that guy. And it's probably harder to shake him loose with the kind of guys you want the Cubs to trade. If I said Archie Bradley for Bryant, you probably say no, but I'd give up Castro. Anyway, how often do you see good young guys swapped for each other? The best way to get a promising young guy is to leverage him out of a team that is in contention before the deadline. The Cubs squeezed Arrieta out of Baltimore that way. It just isn't that easy to do.



JORR, do you think big money pitching free agents past the age of 30 are a better way to go? It seems like a lot more wasted money. I'd rather spread the money around for depth. Again, it's a fixed pot of payroll dollars to be spent.


No. I agree with you in principle. Some dumbass team is going to eat Scherzer. You may get away okay with Lester or Price, but there's still a lot of risk. I think the Cubs pitching is in better shape than most Cub fans seem to. Arrieta and Hendricks should be a decent 1-2. The one thing TheoandJed have shown is they can find other teams' castoffs to give them strong innings. I would stick with that plan. Keep the guys you think are solid, flip the ones you think are fluky, and dump the ones that are horseshit.

Lester is a winning pitcher. And there's no doubt in my mind that after the careers are in the books a comparison between him and Quintana is going to be silly. But if you're looking at the next two or three seasons, the difference between a Quintana and a Lester for the money, I'd have to say you're way better off with Quintana. The problem is it's not easy to find the Quintana. When a guy hits free agency, you probably aren't getting him cheap. I hope the Sox are targeting Brandon McCarthy. I'm almost certain Theo is looking at him before Lester or Price.

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 Post subject: Re: Jon Lester
PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 12:26 pm 
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Rare good ones

Adrian Beltre to Texas at age 32
Buehrle to Miami age 33
Beltran has worked out for a couple teams


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 Post subject: Re: Jon Lester
PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 12:27 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
conns7901 wrote:
I would love to know the history of signing players over 30 to long term contracts. I am guessing it is not good.


Even a "safe" signing like Pujols

Not close to safe. The HUGE risk was discussed at the time. Opposite of SAFE


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 Post subject: Re: Jon Lester
PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 12:29 pm 
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Guys in the office think the Cubs are trying to pry Cole Hamels from Philly. Also, the Mets want Castro apparently and are willing to give up good young pitching.

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 Post subject: Re: Jon Lester
PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 12:32 pm 
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The thing is, you had about a fifteen years stretch there when PEDs were at their peak and 34 was a relatively young guy. I don't think that PEDs necessarily helped guys hit more (I believe that had more to do with the ball), but what they did do was help them hit more longer. You look historically and guys were starting to wind down their careers at 33-35. A guy like Hank Aaron was freakish. In the 90s you had guys who got better at 36 or 37.

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 Post subject: Re: Jon Lester
PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 12:34 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
Guys in the office think the Cubs are trying to pry Cole Hamels from Philly. Also, the Mets want Castro apparently and are willing to give up good young pitching.

I think that Mets deal will happen.

I dont know about Hamels. Not sure what they'd have to give up


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 Post subject: Re: Jon Lester
PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 12:36 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Guys in the office think the Cubs are trying to pry Cole Hamels from Philly. Also, the Mets want Castro apparently and are willing to give up good young pitching.

I think that Mets deal will happen.

I dont know about Hamels. Not sure what they'd have to give up


Who do you think they can get from the Mets for Castro who is ready to help them now? Montero?

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 Post subject: Re: Jon Lester
PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 12:48 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Guys in the office think the Cubs are trying to pry Cole Hamels from Philly. Also, the Mets want Castro apparently and are willing to give up good young pitching.

I think that Mets deal will happen.

I dont know about Hamels. Not sure what they'd have to give up


Who do you think they can get from the Mets for Castro who is ready to help them now? Montero?

Syndergaard or Wheeler


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