You are assuming that the top 20-30 automatically qualify as #1 pitchers. I would say there are only a handful of clear #1 pitchers.

Just because you pitch the opener, does not mean you are actually a #1 pitcher. You are just the best of the shit on your team.

I think many teams top pitcher is actually more of a #3. Someone that has good stuff, is effective, but cannot win a game by themselves most of the time.

For me, a #1 pitcher is someone you are surprised to score a run on. A #2 pitcher, you are surprised to score more than a couple runs on. #3 pitchers will give up 3-4 runs a game, but will do so over 7 innings. 4's and 5's are innings eaters, who you hope keep it close enough to outscore your opponent.

A guy at 56 and trending downward will probably finish 50?

I have MANY years of experience in trying to appreciate steaming piles of dogshit.

Christian Villanueva, 3B, Cubs (Double-A Tennessee)
After a season in which he slashed .261/.317/.469 as a 22-year-old at Double-A, Villanueva ranked ninth on a loaded Cubs Top 10 Prospects list this offseason and started the year with the Iowa Cubs in the Pacific Coast League. A mixture of poor performance (.656 OPS) and the promotion of Kris Bryant led to a mid-June demotion back to the Southern League, where the now 23-year-old regressed in almost every statistical category. Defense has never been a question for Villanueva, as he possesses a plus-plus glove at the hot corner, armed with quick feet, soft hands, excellent balance and coordination, true third-base instincts, and a plus arm to boot. On the other hand, questions have revolved around the utility of the stick at the higher levels, a concern that was exacerbated with a poor statistical showing this season. The raw ingredients are impressive at the plate, as the Mexico native utilizes a tip-and-rip loading mechanism with above-average bat speed and plenty of lower-half utilization throughout, resulting in plus raw power and solid contact when squared. His path to the ball can get loopy at times, though, and his control of the barrel often suffers as a result. Paired with questionable pitch-recognition skills and an aggressive approach, Villanueva will always have some swing-and-miss in his game. Though the on-the-field development stalled this year, Villanueva still possesses major-league upside with double-plus defense, a below-average hit tool (.240 to .250 batting average), and average power output with the potential to hit 15 to 20 bombs annually, potentially occupying a Matt Dominguez–type role, with the ability to provide plenty of value in his cost-controlled years and beyond. The current logjam of Cubs position prospects diminishes the chance that this occurs on the north side of Chicago. –Ethan Purser

Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Cubs (Low-A Kane County)
Sometimes "best shape of his life" stories happen in the minors as well. The formerly stocky third baseman entered 2014 just inside the Cubs' Top 10 as a testament to his pitch recognition and ability to drive balls hard into the gaps. Candelario showed up in much better shape and ready for a test in the Florida State League, but he floundered to start the year. It earned him a demotion to Kane County to build confidence and figure things out. Candelario is a different-looking hitter at the plate this year: He’s dipping the back shoulder a lot and trying to reach back for power that isn’t natural to his game. In the field he hasn’t gained any range with the lost weight. His reactions are slow. He can get to the balls hit at him, and flashes a strong arm, but overall he hasn’t been impressive at the hot corner. It’s been a major step backward for the young switch-hitter. That said, the 21-year-old is enjoying moderate success in Low-A, so there’s time to get back on track, especially if he can tone the swing down. –Mauricio Rubio

Dan Vogelbach, 1B, Cubs (Daytona, A+): 2-4, R, HR, 2 K. The Florida State League is a tough place to develop as a power hitter, so it shouldn’t be too much of a concern that his home run total actually dropped from 19 last year to 16 this year. In fact, Vogelbach’s total tied for the league lead. Vogelbach’s raw power is very real, and he’s a good enough hitter to allow it to play in game action. He could explode next year, and that’s a comment on his power potential and not his waistline.

Cubs to call up Schlitter, Vizcaino, Straily, Rosscup, Lake, catcher Lopez and LHP Jokisch. Ruggiano to 60 day DL.

Jack Flaherty, RHP, Cardinals (Complex League GCL)
A two-way prep standout, Flaherty spent most of last summer being viewed as a future third baseman as a pro. Over the course of the high school season this spring, however, the former North Carolina commit won scouts over as a command righty featuring four pitches projecting to average or better. The Cardinals believed in the profile on the bump enough to pop Flaherty with the 34th overall pick and bestow a $2 million signing bonus.

On the development side, Flaherty’s combination of athleticism, feel, easy mechanics (and ability to repeat them), and aptitude provide a stellar foundation. His arsenal is already advanced for a prep arm, and it would be in no way surprising to see an uptick in velocity and a half-grade or better bump in the secondaries as he continues to add strength and refine his execution under pro instruction. While Flaherty was not often listed among the top impact high school arms in the draft class, there is a real chance he sets the pace for his contemporaries, starting with a loud full-season debut in 2015. –Nick J. Faleris

Gleyber Torres, SS, Cubs (Short-season Boise)
In 2013 the Cubs were aggressive in the international free agent market as they completely blew out their pool money to acquire their targets. Torres and Eloy Jimenez were the two headliners from that class, with Torres commanding a $1.7 million bonus. He is a shortstop at present but, at 17, he’s still a raw product at the position. I think he has the athleticism to remain there but he will need to take to further coaching and instruction to stick.

Torres’ breakout potential is tied a bit to his defensive home, but his carrying tool will be his bat. He is short to the ball, with a quick and compact swing. He has a wide and open stance at the plate and he tends to get busy with his hands as he has an exaggerated bat wiggle. He maintains balance in his stance and follow through. He holds his hands high and the load is simple, as is the path his hands take through the swing. Torres will have to work on the little things afield and he’ll need to develop a plan at the plate, but the potential is there to break out in a significant way in 2015. He looks like a middle-of-the-diamond player on defense even if he doesn’t stick at short. –Mauricio Rubio

He has a wide and open stance at the plate and he tends to get busy with his hands as he has an exaggerated bat wiggle.

PANIC!!!

The first set of those projections – albeit in limited form – have been released. They are the Steamer projections from Jared Cross, Dash Davidson, and Peter Rosenbloom, and they’re now visible on all player pages over at FanGraphs.com. You can have some fun tooling around with various Cubs players and prospects today, but let me point out a few notable items:
■Holy crap is Steamer optimistic on Kris Bryant next year: .265/.344/.489, with a .363 wOBA and a 130 wRC+. With average defense at third base, that would translate to a 4.0+ WAR. In his rookie season. And the sky would be the limit from there. Want.
■Similarly, Jorge Soler fares well, at .271/.330/.470, .349 wOBA, 121 wRC+. Soler has upside beyond that, but if you could lock that line down right now for next year, I think you’d do it with a big smile.
■Given their rough debuts, perhaps it’s unsurprising that Javier Baez (.231/.284/.426, .312 wOBA, 95 wRC+) and Arismendy Alcantara (.247/.296/.394, .304 wOBA, 90 wRC+). With average or better defense at second base and center field, however, each of those performances would still be good enough to make Baez and Alcantara nearly average overall big leaguers. I guess that’s not too bad for a 22 and 23-year-old in their first full big league season.

Do people really think most Cubs fans would be fine with Soler hitting .271?

Those numbers, admittedly optimistic by whoever created the post, equal up to another sub .500 team

I'll be kind of bummed if Bryant hits .265.

The implied .833 OPS would have been 12th overall in the NL this year

Cue the Hawk-type people crowing about something dumb.

Doc, it would make him the third highest OPS of 3B in MLB


Below Beltre and Harrison


Above Rendon, Donaldson, and Seager

Understood. I'm attempting to determine what he would actually need to do to get an .833 with a .265 BA.

Those projections dont always work out. Ive seen some where its mathematically impossible

Incredible that you are able to project that based on projections of 4 players.


And yes, Cub fans will be fine with Soler having an .800 OPS in his first full year