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PostPosted: Thu Dec 11, 2014 6:29 pm 
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8675309 wrote:
No reason to hedge on injuries.....duh.
If I was betting $ and the season started today I would put the W total at 83 wins with the rest of the league knowing the big blue monster is about to eat you for the next 7 to 10 years.

Right handed power is the the BIGGEST deficiency in MLB and the Cubs have an embarrassing amount of it.

How'd you like to face a 3,4,5 of Rizzo, Bryant, Solar and the oldest one is 25.....


In all honesty, I'd love it. Maybe that will change in 3 years. This year and next year, I think pitchers would line up for that.

I do like this narrative of future Cub dominance. The arrogance of it will make opposing players both hate the organization and gear up to play these guys.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 11, 2014 6:43 pm 
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I hadn't really considered that aspect. Young players will be exploited, once their deficiencies become known. At least a couple of these guys won't be able to make the adjustments required to be a star.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 11, 2014 9:12 pm 
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The Cubs will have a winning record. Being in the toughest division in the NL will be the limiting factor.

Madden playing the NL game will be fun to watch.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 11, 2014 9:26 pm 
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.500 give or take. A lot of the kids will be abused by veteran pitchers.

People will give up on the season before ASB, then the Cubs will make a nice run as a few guys figure it out and the clear busts (BAEZ) are sent to the glue factory.


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:56 am 
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Honestly, 80.

Which would be a big letdown IMO. There is no reason whatsoever that the Cubs should not compete for a playoff spot. That doesn't mean win 97 games and leapfrog the Cardinals, but 85, 86 wins at least as you in the conversation for a Wild Card. The Cubs should have been at that stage last year, but decided to trade all of their pitching in July.

Lot of years for Lester (and a lot of $ for Robertson, but such is the market), and with some of their other moves-- Maddon included-- the tanking or waiting til next year is ovah. The Cubs need to contend in 2015.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:10 pm 
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Hussra wrote:
The Cubs run differential got worse in the 2nd half,

Image


That 28-3 pasting in Toronto in September didn't help.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:24 pm 
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I didn't realize they played the Toronto Argonauts...

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:27 pm 
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I'll boldly predict they win 50 and lose 50 and what they do with the other 60 will define their season.


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 14, 2014 1:26 pm 
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82 wins


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:51 pm 
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77-85

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:15 pm 
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91 Wins.


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:35 pm 
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Tall Midget wrote:
77-85


that's about where I am at...and it will be met with pleasure as indication of further progression, even though there are plenty of fans calling them a contender today

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:09 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
77-85


that's about where I am at...and it will be met with pleasure as indication of further progression, even though there are plenty of fans calling them a contender today


Not just the Fans

From Bovada ODDS for winning the 2015 World Series

Los Angeles Dodgers: 15/2
Boston Red Sox: 9/1
Washington Nationals: 15/2
Chicago Cubs: 12/1
Detroit Tigers: 12/1
Los Angeles Angels: 12/1
San Francisco Giants: 14/1
Seattle Mariners: 14/1
St. Louis Cardinals: 14/1
Baltimore Orioles: 18/1
Toronto Blue Jays: 18/1
Kansas City Royals: 20/1
New York Mets: 25/1
New York Yankees: 25/1
Atlanta Braves: 28/1
Chicago White Sox: 28/1
Cleveland Indians: 33/1

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:12 pm 
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86-76 and therefore a shot at the wild card if not the division if the Cards or Brewers regress.


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:16 pm 
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87-75. With a rotation now that I'm guessing will go ......Lester, Arietta, Hammel, Wood and Hendricks (Wood ahead of Hendricks only to avoid back to back lefties), they should be in most games. I think more small moves will take place, but the team should be pretty much in place now. A good high OBP CF would sure be nice, but it would have to be an older guy, so as to avoid creating a log jam for Albert Almora. With Castro, Rizzo, Bryant, Montero, Coghlan and Soler, the run production in 2015 should be markedly improved. If Baez and Alcantra can make improvements, perhaps they too will be part of the picture. But I'm not sold on either as everyday players at this point.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 15, 2014 5:20 pm 
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THE INQUISITOR wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
77-85


that's about where I am at...and it will be met with pleasure as indication of further progression, even though there are plenty of fans calling them a contender today


Not just the Fans

From Bovada ODDS for winning the 2015 World Series

Los Angeles Dodgers: 15/2
Boston Red Sox: 9/1
Washington Nationals: 15/2
Chicago Cubs: 12/1
Detroit Tigers: 12/1
Los Angeles Angels: 12/1
San Francisco Giants: 14/1
Seattle Mariners: 14/1
St. Louis Cardinals: 14/1
Baltimore Orioles: 18/1
Toronto Blue Jays: 18/1
Kansas City Royals: 20/1
New York Mets: 25/1
New York Yankees: 25/1
Atlanta Braves: 28/1
Chicago White Sox: 28/1
Cleveland Indians: 33/1


I'm not fully versed in the complexities of oddsmaking but I am fairly certain that type of bet is directly related to fan (or gambler) sentiment rather than the bookmaker's opinion of team quality.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:29 am 
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good dolphin wrote:
THE INQUISITOR wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
77-85


that's about where I am at...and it will be met with pleasure as indication of further progression, even though there are plenty of fans calling them a contender today


Not just the Fans

From Bovada ODDS for winning the 2015 World Series

Los Angeles Dodgers: 15/2
Boston Red Sox: 9/1
Washington Nationals: 15/2
Chicago Cubs: 12/1
Detroit Tigers: 12/1
Los Angeles Angels: 12/1
San Francisco Giants: 14/1
Seattle Mariners: 14/1
St. Louis Cardinals: 14/1
Baltimore Orioles: 18/1
Toronto Blue Jays: 18/1
Kansas City Royals: 20/1
New York Mets: 25/1
New York Yankees: 25/1
Atlanta Braves: 28/1
Chicago White Sox: 28/1
Cleveland Indians: 33/1


I'm not fully versed in the complexities of oddsmaking but I am fairly certain that type of bet is directly related to fan (or gambler) sentiment rather than the bookmaker's opinion of team quality.

Pretty much. If the Cardinals have the same odds as the Mariners, and worse than the Angels, Cubs and Nationals, it's not a reflection of reality.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:52 pm 
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Fangraphs has their early projections out. they will be updated throughout the off season and during the actual season.

The Cubs are third in the NL Central at 83-79 but tied for the second wild card spot with the Giants.

You can see all the projections here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.as ... dings#AL-C

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Last edited by THE INQUISITOR on Wed Dec 17, 2014 9:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:54 pm 
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THE INQUISITOR wrote:
Fangraphs has their early projections out. they will be updated throughout the off season and during the actual season.

The Cubs are third in the NL Central at 83-79 but tied for the wildcard second wild card spot with the Giants.

You can see all the projections here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.as ... dings#AL-C

At 83 wins? Damn.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 26, 2014 9:04 am 
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Allow me to pop in with a perfectly objective opinion: It's reasonable to assume that your Cubs will finish over .500 and still be in contention for the Central deep into September. That's all any team can ask in this tough ass division.

I think a lot depends on how well your manager uses the talent upgrades...that's a big "how". A lot depends on how the Pirates and Cardinals (my team) do. I just don't see the Reds and Brews doing that well for a scad of reasons. But on the other hand, I thought the Reds would win the Central for the past 2 seasons (talent) and they flopped.

The Pirates are good. The Cards are good, but Mike Matheny is the God awful worst in baseball. It was painful to watch him fuck up the team with his La Russa-esque "style" these last 3 years. If it takes finishing in the basement this year to get his ass fired...I'm down with it!

You guys will do alright. And thanks to the the Cubs' acquisitions the media will run with NL Central news coverage for a change. That's a good thing. Good for baseball. This Yanks/Sawx/Angels/Dodgers shit must end! :wink:


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 26, 2014 9:14 am 
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St. Louis Bull Man wrote:
I think a lot depends on how well your manager uses the talent upgrades...


Outside of Lester, what are the "talent upgrades"? All the other "upgrades" are based on assumption rather than any track record.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 26, 2014 9:23 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
St. Louis Bull Man wrote:
I think a lot depends on how well your manager uses the talent upgrades...


Outside of Lester, what are the "talent upgrades"? All the other "upgrades" are based on assumption rather than any track record.

The manager is a talent upgrade

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 26, 2014 9:37 am 
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spanky wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
St. Louis Bull Man wrote:
I think a lot depends on how well your manager uses the talent upgrades...


Outside of Lester, what are the "talent upgrades"? All the other "upgrades" are based on assumption rather than any track record.

The manager is a talent upgrade


The manager isn't going to win or lose any more games than any other manager.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 26, 2014 10:03 am 
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Everybody is excited for what? Very good to great starting pitching?

That's the same thing the Cubs have had going in to the last 5-7 seasons. I mentioned on here before how the Cubs starting pitching always seems at least respectable. From the days of Wood & Prior through the times with Dempster,Lilly up on to Zambrano & the Shark.

What concerns me is the lack of quality bats. What has been done to improve the line-up? Montero improves it and that's about it. Theo needs to add a couple of guys that can rake. To hell with blocking the path of another youngster. Those that can produce will play. I don't want to watch Lester losing 2-1 every 5 days.

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 28, 2014 4:05 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
St. Louis Bull Man wrote:
I think a lot depends on how well your manager uses the talent upgrades...


Outside of Lester, what are the "talent upgrades"? All the other "upgrades" are based on assumption rather than any track record.
Well, yes....technically you're right. I see I'm going to have to remember that optimism is still a little foreign to the true blue Cub fan.


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 10:46 am 
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Nightengale had the same observation as Joe. Lester is significant but they are still probably a below .500 team

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 10:49 am 
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Safe assumption: The Cubs' offense will be better in 2015 than it was in 2014.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 7:26 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
Nightengale had the same observation as Joe. Lester is significant but they are still probably a below .500 team


Every time I hear Bob Nightingale and his weird weezing I picture a serial killer dressed as a clown.
Really creepy sounding dude.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 30, 2014 9:18 am 
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8675309 wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
Nightengale had the same observation as Joe. Lester is significant but they are still probably a below .500 team


Every time I hear Bob Nightingale and his weird weezing I picture a serial killer dressed as a clown.
Really creepy sounding dude.


when I hear Heyman, I picture a guy drinking Folger's coffee and watching the sun rise

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 30, 2014 9:20 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
St. Louis Bull Man wrote:
I think a lot depends on how well your manager uses the talent upgrades...


Outside of Lester, what are the "talent upgrades"? All the other "upgrades" are based on assumption rather than any track record.

Montero is an upgrade to a very important position.


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