You're the second person I've seen say that. Werent excited going into the 08 season?

Not the same feeling. I didn't want to miss a second of that season.

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I can see that. I mean 04 was the peak of excitement. Im not so sure about this season over 08 though. Was pretty excited for that.

You can see he's declining by the drop in his strikeouts over the past few seasons. Sure, he'll give you a lot of innings. And maybe he can transition into a guy who can succeed without overwhelming stuff. I wouldn't rule it out. But I wouldn't bet $125 million on it either.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

I don't think he was ever worth that. I could live with a 4 year $70M deal.

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Not that you asked me, but '08 was too close to the so-called Bartman game and the subsequent abortion of a season right thereafter (as much off the field as on) for me to invest myself like I am quite willing to do for 2015.

Having said that ... five frigging outs away ............

As to Shields himself, I'll just '+1' JORR's take.

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Power is always in the hands of the masses of men. What oppresses the masses is their own ignorance, their own short-sighted selfishness.
- Henry George

Who else is going to offer him $19 million a season? Aren't the Cubs bidding against themselves at some point?

In this market he's a $17M pitcher IMO. He's probably searching for $20M+ and that's not going to happen. Lester got the best deal and he might be the 3rd best pitcher.

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He probably is, but is anyone offering him anything like that on a 4 year deal right now?

I'm not sure. Haven't seen any numbers.

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Lester is better than Shields and Scherzer got a better deal than Lester.

You're Shields love and Lester dislike is curious.

Neither have I, but I have no doubt he'll end up getting something in the ballpark that you're estimating. Unless there's a 2nd team in the mix offering up a similar deal, I don't think the Cubs should have to worry about what his market value is in relation other similar pitchers. My only concern is the Cubs giving him more than they need to when the market just isn't there.

Shields was a better pitcher until a year and a half ago. I don't really trust a guy that went from average to great overnight. Scherzer got a weird contract with a bunch of deferred money IIRC.

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You don't have to speculate about the aging. Shields is older than him.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

That wasn't the point.

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Power is always in the hands of the masses of men. What oppresses the masses is their own ignorance, their own short-sighted selfishness.
- Henry George

You could almost say the same things about John Danks!

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Well, a junkballing lefty is one thing. Not sure who wants a junkballing righty. I'm not saying Shields is that yet, but he's likely to be at the back of a five year deal.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

Numbers say Lester has been better in 6 of the 9 years they've both been in the league


We've had this argument though. I see what you were saying though (considering you think Shields is better)

Cardinals don't want to give up the draft pick and accompanying bonus pool funds.


I think the plan is for Shields to go to San Diego where he'll be joined by David Price next season and then Maddon the season after (when things inevitably go south with the Cubs and Maddon bugs out for the West Coast, where he started).

I'd go 3/50 tops on Shields, MAYBE a 4th year tied to production.

I can't see him taking that deal though unless he buys into being part of a potential fairy tale which would be the Cubs winning (or getting into) the WS.

Odds 1 in 15.

Front load his deal.

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2 years @ 17 mil with option for buyout. 4 years for him is crazy and they won't do it. I wouldn't either.

You guys say what you will play but when spring training starts he will get his 4 years guaranteed. MLB econmics is not any way reality at all.

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Not my money. Do not care. Front load as I said 2 @17 no more. Sure they feel the same. Dumbass team that goes 4 on a pitcher on the way wrong side of 30 good luck I will pass.

Not even worth replying to. You're insane.

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1926-1931-1934-1942-1944-1946-1964-1967-1982-2006-2011

At least you quoted me.

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At the risk of Cardinal on Cardinal hate, stick to basketball.

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1926-1931-1934-1942-1944-1946-1964-1967-1982-2006-2011

Over the last 4 seasons, (age 28-32) Shields' K/9, ERA+ (ERA relative to league average) and FIP has declined. The most stable of these predictors; K/9-- has declined signifigantly. His ERA last year had a bounce; pitching in front of a historically great defense. He is entering his age 33 season, and leaving one of the most run-supressing parks in baseball.

There is virtually no precedent or statistical basis for your premise.

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1926-1931-1934-1942-1944-1946-1964-1967-1982-2006-2011

Give credit where due, Shields lives in San Diego, and has stated that he would prefer to sign with a team that Spring Trains in AZ.

No word on whether he has softened that stance as his suitors have dwindled.

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1926-1931-1934-1942-1944-1946-1964-1967-1982-2006-2011