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Five Historical Precedents For Cubs’ Loaded Top 100 Class
February 20, 2015 by Matt Eddy
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Not often does an organization place three or more position players in the top 20 of the Top 100 Prospects list. The Cubs accomplished that rare feat this year with No. 1 Kris Bryant, No. 3 Addison Russell, No. 12 Jorge Soler and No. 19 Kyle Schwarber—with C.J. Edwards (No. 38) and Billy McKinney (No. 83) checking in further down the list.
Because hitting prospects tend to be less volatile than pitching prospects, the Cubs appear to be well positioned for the immediate future. To get an idea of what Chicago can expect from its loaded prospect class, we took a look at how organizations with a similar, top-heavy collection of position players have fared.
The areas considered are: (1) each big league club’s results for the six seasons beginning with the Top 100 class, (2) a Wins Above Replacement (Baseball-Reference.com version) accounting of each Top 100 class, including the value accrued by players acquired in subsequent trades of Top 100 Prospects, and (3) a closing summation.
1. 2006 Diamondbacks
The Players
SS Justin Upton (#2), SS Stephen Drew (#5), 1B Conor Jackson (#17), OF Carlos Quentin (#20), OF Chris Young (#23), OF Carlos Gonzalez (#32), RHP Dustin Nippert (#67)
The First Six Seasons
Arizona went 477-495 (.491) from 2006-11, with three winning seasons and two trips to the playoffs, one courtesy of an National League West division title.
Where Did Everybody Go?
Prospect
WAR Turned Into
WAR Turned Into
WAR
Upton 14.3 3B Martin Prado
RHP Randall Delgado
RHP Zeke Spruill
SS Nick Ahmed
3B Brandon Drury 3.9 C Pete O’Brien
RHP Myles Smith —
Drew 13.1 SS Sean Jamieson —
Jackson 2.2 RHP Sam Demel -1.0
Quentin -0.1 1B Chris Carter — Packaged with Carlos Gonzalez,
four others for Dan Haren
Young 14.7 SS Cliff Pennington
RHP Heath Bell 3.1 RHP Justin Choate
OF Todd Glaesmann —
Gonzalez — RHP Dan Haren
RHP Connor Robertson 13.3 LHP Joe Saunders
LHP Pat Corbin
LHP Tyler Skaggs
RHP Rafael Rodriguez
LHP Scott Schoeneweis 4.2
Nippert -0.7 RHP Jose Marte —
TOTAL 43.5 19.3 4.2
The 2007 Diamondbacks advanced to the NL Championship Series, with Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin, Chris Young and Dustin Nippert all contributing to the team’s success, to varying degrees. In fact, Young, Upton and Drew are some of the most decorated players in franchise history—they rank fourth, fifth and sixth, respectively, among position players on Arizona’s all-time WAR leaderboard. All three stuck around long enough to contribute to the 2011 wild-card winners, too.
While Arizona traded Quentin and Carlos Gonzalez before they blossomed in the majors, they did secure three good seasons from Dan Haren in the exchange, and then Haren turned into Pat Corbin and Tyler Skaggs, who in turn begat Mark Trumbo (not shown above).
What’s most interesting about the D-backs’ class of 2006 is how they have more-or-less direct corollaries with the Cubs’ class of 2015. For example, Upton (who quickly moved from shortstop, his draft position) and Kris Bryant are the righthanded-hitting, corner mashers. Drew and Addison Russell are the hard-hitting, fundamentally-sound shortstops. Quentin and Jorge Soler are the power-hitting, profile right fielders. Jackson and Kyle Schwarber are the accomplished college hitters who fit lower on the defensive spectrum in the long term. The Cubs’ version of Chris Young might be Javier Baez (No. 5 on last year’s Top 100), the 2014 rookie second baseman with plus power, contact issues and an up-the-middle profile.
2. 2011 Royals
The Players
1B Eric Hosmer (#8), 3B Mike Moustakas (#9), OF/C Wil Myers (#10), LHP John Lamb (#18), LHP Mike Montgomery (#19), SS Christian Colon (#51), LHP Danny Duffy (#68), RHP Jake Odorizzi (#69), LHP Chris Dwyer (#83)
The First Six Seasons
Kansas City has gone 318-330 (.491) in the first four seasons since its historic class accounted for nearly 10 percent of all Top 100 Prospects. They have two winning seasons and one wild-card berth, which they parlayed into a trip to the 2014 World Series.
Where Did Everybody Go?
Prospect
WAR Turned Into
WAR Turned Into
WAR
Hosmer 5.5
Moustakas 4.5
Myers — RHP James Shields
RHP Wade Davis
SS Elliot Johnson 12.6
Lamb —
Montgomery — Packaged with Myers,
three others for Shields/Davis —
Colon 0.7
Duffy 4.6
Odorizzi — Packaged with Myers,
three others for Shields/Davis —
Dwyer 0.1
TOTAL 15.4 12.6
The Royals’ prospect depth allowed them to cover for the underwhelming returns from Hosmer and Moustakas thus far, while the also allowing them to part with Myers, Montgomery and Odorizzi to acquire Shields and Davis, two pitchers crucial to the 2014 club’s success.
Maybe the Royals had that much faith in their second wave of talent. Outside the Kansas City top 10, one finds key contributors such as Yordano Ventura, Salvador Perez, Jarrod Dyson and Kelvin Herrera, and appearing on the depth chart that year were Greg Holland and Will Smith, the lefthanded reliever who turned into Nori Aoki in a trade with the Brewers. Perez, for example, has accrued 12 WAR in parts of four seasons. That sextet of players gives the Royals additional important members of the 2014 playoff roster who did not come all that close to ranking among the Top 100 Prospects. Depth matters, too.
3. 2007 Rays
The Players
OF Delmon Young (#3), 3B Evan Longoria (#7), SS Reid Brignac (#17), RHP Jeff Niemann (#35), LHP Jake McGee (#37), OF Elijah Dukes (#79), RHP Wade Davis (#97)
The First Six Seasons
Tampa Bay went 524-448 (.539) from 2007-12, with five winning seasons and three trips to the playoffs, courtesy of two AL East division titles and one wild card. The Rays lost the 2008 World Series to the Phillies.
Where Did Everybody Go?
Prospect
WAR Turned Into
WAR Turned Into
WAR
Young 2.1 RHP Matt Garza
SS Jason Bartlett
RHP Eduardo Morlan 18.9 RHP Chris Archer
SS Hak-Ju Lee
C Robinson Chirinos
OF Brandon Guyer
OF Sam Fuld
RHP Brandon Gomes
RHP Adam Russell
LHP Cesar Ramos
2B Cole Figueroa 9.8
Longoria 40.0
Brignac 1.5
Niemann 4.2
McGee 4.8
Dukes 1.9 LHP Glenn Gibson —
Davis 2.8 OF Wil Myers
RHP Jake Odorizzi
LHP Mike Montgomery
3B Patrick Leonard 2.4 OF Steven Souza
LHP Travis Ott
1B Jake Bauers
RHP Burch Smith
C Rene Rivera —
TOTAL 57.0 21.3 9.8
The Rays’ 2008 class featured many of the same characters listed above—it also included No. 10 David Price and No. 59 Desmond Jennings—but in terms of position-player concentration, the 2007 class is most similar. Tampa Bay did not thrive with a high-octane offense fueled by Top 100 Prospects during this period, though.
While first-rounders Price and Evan Longoria added legitimate star power to the franchise—as did Carl Crawford—the Rays have acquired a large portion of their value by trading for other teams’ prospects. For example, Tampa Bay turned 2003 No. 1 overall pick Delmon Young into Matt Garza, a rotation anchor for the 2008 pennant winners. They then turned Garza into Chris Archer, one of their most effective current starters. The Rays turned Wade Davis (and James Shields) into Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi, then this offseason they turned Myers into prospects including big league-ready outfielder Steven Souza and low Class A first baseman Jake Bauers.
In the case of the Rays, realistic evaluations of their own personnel combined well with a proficient pro-scouting department kept them competitive for six straight years beginning in 2008.
4. 1992 Braves
The Players
SS Chipper Jones (#4), 1B Ryan Klesko (#8), RHP Mark Wohlers (#13), OF Mike Kelly (#19), RHP David Nied (#56), C Javy Lopez (#87), OF Keith Mitchell (#89)
The First Six Seasons
Atlanta went 557-349 (.615) from 1992-97, with six winning seasons and five trips to the playoffs, thanks to division titles in each season but 1994, which was truncated by the strike.
Where Did Everybody Go?
Prospect
WAR Turned Into
WAR Turned Into
WAR
Jones 85.0
Klesko 10.7 1B Wally Joyner
OF Reggie Sanders
2B Quilvio Veras 3.6
Wohlers 3.2 RHP John Hudek -0.2
Kelly -0.4 RHP Chad Fox
LHP Ray King 0.3 OF Gerald Williams
RHP Jon Ratliff 4.1
Nied 1.0
Lopez 23.4
Mitchell 0.2
TOTAL 99.5 3.7 4.1
The early-’90s Braves had a limitless future. They entered 1992 fresh off a surprise NL pennant and, thanks to a recent string of high first-round picks, they had one of the best farm systems in baseball. Ultimately, Atlanta won the 1995 World Series versus the Indians but lost the Fall Classic in 1992 and ’96, both times in six games.
While Chipper Jones, Ryan Klesko and Javy Lopez served as lineup anchors throughout the ’90s, the core strength of those Braves teams is not reflected here. That core strength is, of course, the string of successful starters that kept Atlanta perennially competitive: Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Steve Avery, Kevin Millwood, Denny Neagle and others.
5. 2004 Brewers
The Players
2B Rickie Weeks (#5), 1B Prince Fielder (#10), SS J.J. Hardy (#19), OF/1B Brad Nelson (#48), LHP Manny Parra (#69), RHP Mike Jones (#84)
The First Six Seasons
Milwaukee went 476-495 (.490) from 2004-09, with three winning seasons and one trip to the playoffs in 2008 as the NL wild card.
Where Did Everybody Go?
Prospect
WAR Turned Into
WAR Turned Into
WAR
Weeks 12.3
Fielder 16.8
Hardy 10.9
OF Carlos Gomez 18.8
Nelson -0.3
Parra -3.3
Jones —
TOTAL 36.4 18.8
Three of the five historical precedents played roughly .490 ball in the six years following their loaded Top 100 Prospects class, and the Brewers represent probably the worst-case scenario. They snuck into the playoffs only once, in 2008 when they relied on a September collapse by the Mets and the left arm of workhorse C.C. Sabathia in equal measures.
Jack Zduriencik, then scouting director of the Brewers, had a clear knack for identifying hitters in the draft—Milwaukee also selected Ryan Braun, Michael Brantley and Corey Hart during his tenure—but all the ace-caliber playoff starters in recent franchise history, other than 2004 second-round pick Yovani Gallardo, have arrived via trades that cost the Brewers players such as Brantley (for Sabathia) and Jake Odorizzi, Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain (for Zack Greinke).
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