Baez Strikeout-O- Meter

rogers park bryan · **Joined:** Wed Sep 24, 2008 12:16 pm **Posts:** 81625

Hatchetman wrote:

and if he is right and they all bust out, it will be incredibly funny. :lol:

Yes, that would be something.

Im confident one of the 5 will work out. Probably more like 2-2.5

City of Fools · **Posted:** Tue Mar 10, 2015 10:13 am

Everybody wants to live in a particular camp. It's all a gray area.

It's highly probable Baez will be a bust.

It's highly probable Bryant will be a good player and on the Cubs for some time.

It's highly probable that Addison Russell will do the same.

It's highly probable that if Soler has to play 162 games, his health will be an issue.

It's highly probable that Schwarber won't end up a catcher, and it's way too early to declare him a high prospect.

It's highly probable that Billy McKinney will be a serviceable major league player.

It's highly probable that Almora will at best be a late bloomer.

It's highly probable that Alcantara is a bust.

It's highly probable that there is one major league talent we haven't even heard of yet that will be a great player for the Cubs. It is equally probable that one of their three best prospects (Bryant, Russell or Soler) will be a bust even after the best evaluations.

rogers park bryan · **Joined:** Wed Sep 24, 2008 12:16 pm **Posts:** 81625

City of Fools wrote:

Everybody wants to live in a particular camp. It's all a gray area.

It's highly probable Baez will be a bust.

It's highly probable Bryant will be a good player and on the Cubs for some time.

It's highly probable that Addison Russell will do the same.

It's highly probable that if Soler has to play 162 games, his health will be an issue.

It's highly probable that Schwarber won't end up a catcher, and it's way too early to declare him a high prospect.

It's highly probable that Billy McKinney will be a serviceable major league player.

It's highly probable that Almora will at best be a late bloomer.

It's highly probable that Alcantara is a bust.

It's highly probable that there is one major league talent we haven't even heard of yet that will be a great player for the Cubs. It is equally probable that one of their three best prospects (Bryant, Russell or Soler) will be a bust even after the best evaluations.

I agree with almost all of that.

good dolphin · **Joined:** Thu Feb 17, 2005 2:35 pm **Posts:** 82152

rogers park bryan wrote:

good dolphin wrote:

rogers park bryan wrote:

[
of course it isn't. It just sets you up to be correct if a few turn out to be good and in a full on strut if 50% achieve.

Its truly amazing how much you and others worry about this.

If a few turn out, I will be right because that is what I always predicted (that's what happens with prospects on any team)

If one turns out decent, you'll be wrong because you and others have painted yourself in a corner by staking out the they'll all bust position.

Im sorry you painted yourself in that corner.

wrong but you are used to that

good dolphin · **Joined:** Thu Feb 17, 2005 2:35 pm **Posts:** 82152

City of Fools wrote:

Everybody wants to live in a particular camp. It's all a gray area.

It's highly probable Baez will be a bust.

It's highly probable Bryant will be a good player and on the Cubs for some time.

It's highly probable that Addison Russell will do the same.

It's highly probable that if Soler has to play 162 games, his health will be an issue.

It's highly probable that Schwarber won't end up a catcher, and it's way too early to declare him a high prospect.

It's highly probable that Billy McKinney will be a serviceable major league player.

It's highly probable that Almora will at best be a late bloomer.

It's highly probable that Alcantara is a bust.

It's highly probable that there is one major league talent we haven't even heard of yet that will be a great player for the Cubs. It is equally probable that one of their three best prospects (Bryant, Russell or Soler) will be a bust even after the best evaluations.

You cannot put a highly probable about MLB futures on any player who hasn't played at the MLB level. You are basing it on an inexact science in which there are far too many variables.

I'm not even in that group that makes definitive statements about Baez and Alcantara.

Kirkwood · **Posted:** Tue Mar 10, 2015 10:31 am

good dolphin wrote:

You cannot put a highly probable about MLB futures on any player who hasn't played at the MLB level. You are basing it on an inexact science in which there are far too many variables.

I'm not even in that group that makes definitive statements about Baez and Alcantara.

except rodon. that's different. :lol:

good dolphin · **Joined:** Thu Feb 17, 2005 2:35 pm **Posts:** 82152

Kirkwood wrote:

good dolphin wrote:

You cannot put a highly probable about MLB futures on any player who hasn't played at the MLB level. You are basing it on an inexact science in which there are far too many variables.

I'm not even in that group that makes definitive statements about Baez and Alcantara.

except rodon. that's different. :lol:

Rodon as well. I count on him for nothing at this point and would make him earn his way onto an MLB roster. Rodon is a perfect example of the flaws in the ranking system. Most of the opinion on him is formed through facing college players.

rogers park bryan · **Joined:** Wed Sep 24, 2008 12:16 pm **Posts:** 81625

good dolphin wrote:

rogers park bryan wrote:

good dolphin wrote:

rogers park bryan wrote:

[
of course it isn't. It just sets you up to be correct if a few turn out to be good and in a full on strut if 50% achieve.

Its truly amazing how much you and others worry about this.

If a few turn out, I will be right because that is what I always predicted (that's what happens with prospects on any team)

If one turns out decent, you'll be wrong because you and others have painted yourself in a corner by staking out the they'll all bust position.

Im sorry you painted yourself in that corner.

wrong but you are used to that

You're an embarrassment at this point. You are becoming the White Sox version of Elmhurst Steve.

When you start having rational thoughts again, you'll be treated as such

rogers park bryan · **Joined:** Wed Sep 24, 2008 12:16 pm **Posts:** 81625

good dolphin wrote:

Kirkwood wrote:

good dolphin wrote:

You cannot put a highly probable about MLB futures on any player who hasn't played at the MLB level. You are basing it on an inexact science in which there are far too many variables.

I'm not even in that group that makes definitive statements about Baez and Alcantara.

except rodon. that's different. :lol:

Rodon as well. I count on him for nothing at this point and would make him earn his way onto an MLB roster. Rodon is a perfect example of the flaws in the ranking system. Most of the opinion on him is formed through facing college players.

http://score670.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=2182600#p2182600

jimmypasta · **Posted:** Tue Mar 10, 2015 11:06 am

Just in case anyone thinks I'm not rooting for the Cubs,I am. I just feel from what I watched and what I am still reading,that Baez is a bust. Brett Jackson looked like he had all the tools,too but his constant lack of contact was alarming.

Hey, Cubs farm system,what else you got?

City of Fools · **Posted:** Tue Mar 10, 2015 11:08 am

good dolphin wrote:

Kirkwood wrote:

good dolphin wrote:

You cannot put a highly probable about MLB futures on any player who hasn't played at the MLB level. You are basing it on an inexact science in which there are far too many variables.

I'm not even in that group that makes definitive statements about Baez and Alcantara.

except rodon. that's different. :lol:

Rodon as well. I count on him for nothing at this point and would make him earn his way onto an MLB roster. Rodon is a perfect example of the flaws in the ranking system. Most of the opinion on him is formed through facing college players.

pretty sure you count on him to be Chris Sale like.

City of Fools · **Posted:** Tue Mar 10, 2015 11:09 am

good dolphin wrote:

City of Fools wrote:

Everybody wants to live in a particular camp. It's all a gray area.

It's highly probable Baez will be a bust.

It's highly probable Bryant will be a good player and on the Cubs for some time.

It's highly probable that Addison Russell will do the same.

It's highly probable that if Soler has to play 162 games, his health will be an issue.

It's highly probable that Schwarber won't end up a catcher, and it's way too early to declare him a high prospect.

It's highly probable that Billy McKinney will be a serviceable major league player.

It's highly probable that Almora will at best be a late bloomer.

It's highly probable that Alcantara is a bust.

It's highly probable that there is one major league talent we haven't even heard of yet that will be a great player for the Cubs. It is equally probable that one of their three best prospects (Bryant, Russell or Soler) will be a bust even after the best evaluations.

You cannot put a highly probable about MLB futures on any player who hasn't played at the MLB level. You are basing it on an inexact science in which there are far too many variables.

I'm not even in that group that makes definitive statements about Baez and Alcantara.

why even have a minor league system? Just farm other team's collections of major league talent. You can't tell anything about these prospects.

good dolphin · **Joined:** Thu Feb 17, 2005 2:35 pm **Posts:** 82152

rogers park bryan wrote:

good dolphin wrote:

Kirkwood wrote:

good dolphin wrote:

You cannot put a highly probable about MLB futures on any player who hasn't played at the MLB level. You are basing it on an inexact science in which there are far too many variables.

I'm not even in that group that makes definitive statements about Baez and Alcantara.

except rodon. that's different. :lol:

Rodon as well. I count on him for nothing at this point and would make him earn his way onto an MLB roster. Rodon is a perfect example of the flaws in the ranking system. Most of the opinion on him is formed through facing college players.

http://score670.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=2182600#p2182600

that's a report of what someone else wrote

Frank Coztansa · **Posted:** Tue Mar 10, 2015 12:29 pm

Kirkwood wrote:

Ya, it's kinda bizarre how delusional he is.

Hello pot, meet kettle.

City of Fools · **Posted:** Tue Mar 10, 2015 2:23 pm

good dolphin wrote:

rogers park bryan wrote:

good dolphin wrote:

Rodon as well. I count on him for nothing at this point and would make him earn his way onto an MLB roster. Rodon is a perfect example of the flaws in the ranking system. Most of the opinion on him is formed through facing college players.

http://score670.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=2182600#p2182600

that's a report of what someone else wrote

I've seen you write that Rondon will be plugged in next year and you also stated that using him in the bullpen is ridiculous. I think the public record shows you've already formed some opinions.

8675309 · **Posted:** Tue Mar 10, 2015 2:27 pm

Wow, I honestly think some of you need to seek professional help or at least have a restraining order filed before we find a dead Cubs player buried in an Alsipian grave.
Move on...enjoy your "team".

America · **Posted:** Tue Mar 10, 2015 2:28 pm

The risk behind pitchers is different than the risk behind hitters. I can assure you that a healthy Carlos Rodon will get major league outs with his slider/fastball, maybe not as a frontline starter but he at least could forge a career as a reliever with that combination of pitches. Two things that could stop him (really three, but two are so similar they might as well be the same): 1. Injury, obvs. 1a. His stuff disappears (think Erik Johnson) because he suffers an injury that simply hasn't been discovered by research 2. He cant maintain his control.

The odds of any of those things happening is in excess of 50%, by the way. But when it comes to Rodon I dont talk about the things that necessarily need to happen for him to be successful, its the things that need not to happen. That is not the case for hitters 99% of the time.

**TINSTAAP is bullshit invented by Red Sox fans upset with DiceK. If you believe in it you're stupid.

Matches Malone · **Posted:** Tue Mar 10, 2015 4:40 pm

City of Fools wrote:

Everybody wants to live in a particular camp. It's all a gray area.

It's highly probable Baez will be a bust.

It's highly probable Bryant will be a good player and on the Cubs for some time.

It's highly probable that Addison Russell will do the same.

It's highly probable that if Soler has to play 162 games, his health will be an issue.

It's highly probable that Schwarber won't end up a catcher, and it's way too early to declare him a high prospect.

It's highly probable that Billy McKinney will be a serviceable major league player.

It's highly probable that Almora will at best be a late bloomer.

It's highly probable that Alcantara is a bust.

It's highly probable that there is one major league talent we haven't even heard of yet that will be a great player for the Cubs. It is equally probable that one of their three best prospects (Bryant, Russell or Soler) will be a bust even after the best evaluations.

Let's get this out of the way.

Baez = Lou Whitaker
Bryant = Frank Robinson
Russell = Ozzie Smith/Gary Templeton combination.
Soler = Sosa
Schwarber = Egdar Martinez (NL will adopt the DH) or Rusty Staub
McKinney = Von Hayes
Almora = Devon White
Alcantara = Chone Figgins (Angels version)
Hendricks = Mark Buehrle
Edwards = Dennis Martinez
Rondon = Jon Wetteland
Ramirez = Mariano Rivera

That about sums it up.

rogers park bryan · **Joined:** Wed Sep 24, 2008 12:16 pm **Posts:** 81625

Matches Malone wrote:

City of Fools wrote:

Everybody wants to live in a particular camp. It's all a gray area.

It's highly probable Baez will be a bust.

It's highly probable Bryant will be a good player and on the Cubs for some time.

It's highly probable that Addison Russell will do the same.

It's highly probable that if Soler has to play 162 games, his health will be an issue.

It's highly probable that Schwarber won't end up a catcher, and it's way too early to declare him a high prospect.

It's highly probable that Billy McKinney will be a serviceable major league player.

It's highly probable that Almora will at best be a late bloomer.

It's highly probable that Alcantara is a bust.

It's highly probable that there is one major league talent we haven't even heard of yet that will be a great player for the Cubs. It is equally probable that one of their three best prospects (Bryant, Russell or Soler) will be a bust even after the best evaluations.

Let's get this out of the way.

Baez = Lou Whitaker
Bryant = Frank Robinson
Russell = Ozzie Smith/Gary Templeton combination.
Soler = Sosa
Schwarber = Egdar Martinez (NL will adopt the DH) or Rusty Staub
McKinney = Von Hayes
Almora = Devon White
Alcantara = Chone Figgins (Angels version)
Hendricks = Mark Buehrle
Edwards = Dennis Martinez
Rondon = Jon Wetteland
Ramirez = Mariano Rivera

That about sums it up.

Soler will hit more homers than Sosa and Russell will be A Rod without the Roids, but the rest makes sense

BigW72 · **Posted:** Wed Mar 11, 2015 8:29 am

Hatchetman wrote:

just wait'll Joe Borchard learns to lay off the sliders. :lol:

This...and you can add Mike Caruso, Gordon Beckham, and I'm sure others to the list.

That is why as a Sox fan I'm keeping my mouth shut on prospects for ANY team.

IMU · **Posted:** Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:27 am

wdelaney72 wrote:

That is why as a Sox fan I'm keeping my mouth shut on prospects for ANY team.

You don't need to do that. There is no reason to be ashamed of being hopeful that prospects turn into solid contributors, or even stars.

Just don't overreact to early successes or early failures. At 21 years old, you have no idea what you have with a player. You identify bad traits; try to correct as many as possible. You highlight strengths; try to improve them. And after a few years, you have an idea of where the player will end up.

Baez has shown enough pros that you give him a chance to fix his cons and become a good major leaguer. I'm less worried about Bryant and Soler, but they've got at least a couple years before I can say they are reliable major leaguers.

good dolphin · **Joined:** Thu Feb 17, 2005 2:35 pm **Posts:** 82152

IMU wrote:

[.

Just don't overreact to early successes or early failures..

That has been my point since the beginning. The argument arises in what I consider overreaction compared to what other think it is.

Brick · **Posted:** Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:48 am

IMU wrote:

wdelaney72 wrote:

That is why as a Sox fan I'm keeping my mouth shut on prospects for ANY team.

You don't need to do that. There is no reason to be ashamed of being hopeful that prospects turn into solid contributors, or even stars.

Just don't overreact to early successes or early failures. At 21 years old, you have no idea what you have with a player. You identify bad traits; try to correct as many as possible. You highlight strengths; try to improve them. And after a few years, you have an idea of where the player will end up.

Baez has shown enough pros that you give him a chance to fix his cons and become a good major leaguer. I'm less worried about Bryant and Soler, but they've got at least a couple years before I can say they are reliable major leaguers.

The problem with Baez is that what makes him a really good power hitter is probably why he sucks on average.

I'm not sure what Baez is if he isn't swinging at baseballs like they slept with his wife.

rogers park bryan · **Joined:** Wed Sep 24, 2008 12:16 pm **Posts:** 81625

Boilermaker Rick wrote:

IMU wrote:

wdelaney72 wrote:

That is why as a Sox fan I'm keeping my mouth shut on prospects for ANY team.

You don't need to do that. There is no reason to be ashamed of being hopeful that prospects turn into solid contributors, or even stars.

Just don't overreact to early successes or early failures. At 21 years old, you have no idea what you have with a player. You identify bad traits; try to correct as many as possible. You highlight strengths; try to improve them. And after a few years, you have an idea of where the player will end up.

Baez has shown enough pros that you give him a chance to fix his cons and become a good major leaguer. I'm less worried about Bryant and Soler, but they've got at least a couple years before I can say they are reliable major leaguers.

The problem with Baez is that what makes him a really good power hitter is probably why he sucks on average.

I'm not sure what Baez is if he isn't swinging at baseballs like they slept with his wife.

Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, Dan Uggla....

Hatchetman · **Posted:** Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:55 am

if the guy can field at ss or 2b, let him hit .185 & 35. :lol:

Brick · **Posted:** Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:56 am

rogers park bryan wrote:

Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, Dan Uggla....

Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Hank Aaron.

Are we just naming home run hitters?

IMU · **Posted:** Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:57 am

Boilermaker Rick wrote:

The problem with Baez is that what makes him a really good power hitter is probably why he sucks on average.

And this is why we have .OPS and many more metrics being used now.

You'll live with a .230 BA and 200 K's if he has an .850 OPS as a second baseman.

rogers park bryan · **Joined:** Wed Sep 24, 2008 12:16 pm **Posts:** 81625

Boilermaker Rick wrote:

rogers park bryan wrote:

Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, Dan Uggla....

Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Hank Aaron.

Are we just naming home run hitters?

Seriously?

No, were naming homerun hitters who struck out at an extremely high rate

Many of the same things were said about Reynolds and Uggla and both were good for a while, but not as good as people thought they might be. I think Baez will end up that way.

His defense is good, so that helps

Brick · **Posted:** Wed Mar 11, 2015 10:02 am

IMU wrote:

Boilermaker Rick wrote:

The problem with Baez is that what makes him a really good power hitter is probably why he sucks on average.

And this is why we have .OPS and many more metrics being used now.

You'll live with a .230 BA and 200 K's if he has an .850 OPS as a second baseman.

I don't really know if that is really a counterpoint. If he hits 70 home runs a year you'll live with it too.

What I'm saying is that I look at what makes him good and it seems like it comes from his "unique" way of swinging.

If he has to reinvent his swing then he also loses a lot of what makes him potentially very good.

Brick · **Posted:** Wed Mar 11, 2015 10:06 am

rogers park bryan wrote:

Boilermaker Rick wrote:

rogers park bryan wrote:

Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, Dan Uggla....

Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Hank Aaron.

Are we just naming home run hitters?

Seriously?

No, were naming homerun hitters who struck out at an extremely high rate

Many of the same things were said about Reynolds and Uggla and both were good for a while, but not as good as people thought they might be. I think Baez will end up that way.

His defense is good, so that helps

I'm talking about how he swings. I'm not simply talking about how many strikeouts he has.

Every time I look at him swing I just don't see how it can be fixed. Maybe he can completely revamp his swing but there is a reason that MLB players don't walk up to the plate and swing like that.

Baez Strikeout-O- Meter

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