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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 7:01 am 
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badrogue17 wrote:
THE INQUISITOR wrote:
Jaw Breaker wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Lester is the 10th highest paid starter and guys will continue to pass him on that list.


Not sure where you got that from, but according to Forbes, Lester and Kershaw are at #1 in 2015 with $30m each and Verlander is next with $28m.


From Cotts:
The highest-paid starting pitchers, by average annual value:
1. Clayton Kershaw, $30,714,286 (2014-20)
2. Max Scherzer, $30,000,000 (2015-21)
3. Jon Lester, $25,833,333 (2015-20)
4. Justin Verlander, $25,714,286 (2013-19)
5. Felix Hernandez, $25,000,000 (2013-19)
6. Zack Greinke, $24,500,000 (2013-18)
7. CC Sabathia, $24,400,000 (2012-16)
8. Cole Hamels, $24,000,000 (2013-18)
… Cliff Lee, $24,000,000 (2011-15)

:lol: Lot of aces there (maybe Scherzer being the exception) when they signed those deals.

I dont know why you care how much Tom Ricketts spends.

Bottom line, Lester is not a top 5 pitcher and never has been.

He's top 10-ish. If you expect more than that, you will be dissapointed

That list supports what Im saying, btw. There are two aces on that list. (Felix and Kershaw) Scherzer...maybe. The rest (Greinke, Hamels)are in the second tier with Lester or below/injured (Lee, Verlander, Sabathia )

I mean, I understand being skeptical but you really seem to be hoping Lester is bad so you can be right. I mean, when he pitches well (as he did for the most part friday) does it bother you?

The guy struck out 10 over 6 and the team won and your first thought was Lester and his contract? It seems like you'd never be happy. But to each their own.


Last edited by rogers park bryan on Mon Apr 27, 2015 7:13 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 7:11 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Jaw Breaker wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Lester is the 10th highest paid starter and guys will continue to pass him on that list.


Not sure where you got that from, but according to Forbes, Lester and Kershaw are at #1 in 2015 with $30m each and Verlander is next with $28m.

That Forbes site always has errors on it. Its weird, but Ive noticed that in the past.

He's making 20m this year, which makes him 10th

If you average it out over the life of the deal he's 3rd but like I said, people will continue to pass him. Its just not on the level of the Soriano deal and suggesting such is silly.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lestejo01.shtml#contracts

Im suggesting that by the end of the deal, what he will have provided performance wise in relation to the money will be worse than Soriano. Soriano was productive for a few years . Never to the level he signed for but still productive. I think when all is said and done his numbers will pencil out to between what a 3 and 4 starter will have done for 8x the money. Guess we will have to wait and see.

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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 7:24 am 
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Soriano was good for a few years but the contract was crippling. Lester's contract will never be crippling, imo. Soriano's money was such a huge part of the payroll and sooo long. 8 years is what made that deal terrible. If that thing was 5-6 years it would have just been another bad contract but not what it was.


So you will be pleasantly surprised if Lester wins like 13-14 games then? You said you expect he'll never approach last year's 16-11 right?


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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 7:31 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Soriano was good for a few years but the contract was crippling. Lester's contract will never be crippling, imo.

It wont stop them from spending.

So you will be pleasantly surprised if he wins like 13-14 games then?

Not sure how many he'll win. Its how many he's going to lose thats the issue. I don't really consider say, 13-11, 14-12 with a 4ish ERA to be very good and he's going to have to bust ass to even get to those numbers this year. I guess its all about expectations. For that money Im expecting more than that. I don't know how you can say he wasn't signed to be the number 1 here. Number 1 carries with it a certain level of performance. I don't see the Cubs getting that from him.

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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 7:55 am 
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badrogue17 wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Soriano was good for a few years but the contract was crippling. Lester's contract will never be crippling, imo.

It wont stop them from spending.

So you will be pleasantly surprised if he wins like 13-14 games then?

Not sure how many he'll win. Its how many he's going to lose thats the issue. I don't really consider say, 13-11, 14-12 with a 4ish ERA to be very good and he's going to have to bust ass to even get to those numbers this year. I guess its all about expectations. For that money Im expecting more than that. I don't know how you can say he wasn't signed to be the number 1 here. Number 1 carries with it a certain level of performance. I don't see the Cubs getting that from him.

Well, you said he'll never approach or come close to last years 16-11. Id think 14-11 would qualify. That's what Im saying, it seems like you are overrating what Lester has done in the past. He's basically been Mark Buehrle with more stirkeouts.

I dont really care about the money. I dont think fans should. I expect as much from Arrieta as Lester and Im not going to be less upset if Arrieta has a bad start because he's affordable.


Being the number one on the Cubs (he's not, Arrieta probably is) is different from being a true Ace like the top guys. I doubt you think Lester is in the Felix, Kershaw class right?

And he's not gonna have to bust his ass to get those numbers. Its still way early man. If he makes two good starts he could be 2-2 with a 3 something ERA by next week.


Anyway, I think the money is the thing here. I dont care how much they make and I dont set expectations according to salary. The way MLB is, many times your best players are making very little. Guys who have been around a while make money.

The second Lester signed, my thought was good, he's a good pitcher and he'll help. Seems like yours was "this guy is overpaid and will never live up to that contract"

Anyway, we all watch and root differently. There is no right or wrong. Go Cubbees!


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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:07 am 
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Has Jon Lester been excellent? No, duh.

But the Lester criticism has gone over-the-top criticism and now the haters are chugging stupid pills.

Lester is currently rocking a .424 BABIP which makes sense given his 40.3% line drive rate. However, his previous career high LD rate was 22% in 2012. Do we all believe he's going to sport a LD rate that's double league average (20.8% in 2014)????

His K/9 is actually higher and BB/9 lower than his career averages.

I like tossing cheap shots but there appears to be some race to be able to say I was the 1st guy to say he was a bust.


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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:08 am 
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Kirkwood wrote:
I like tossing cheap shots but there appears to be some race to be able to say I was the 1st guy to say he was a bust.

Yes, this is the feeling I get from several people.


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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:10 am 
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Kirkwood wrote:
Has Jon Lester been excellent? No, duh.

But the Lester criticism has gone over-the-top criticism and now the haters are chugging stupid pills.

Lester is currently rocking a .424 BABIP which makes sense given his 40.3% line drive rate. However, his previous career high LD rate was 22% in 2012. Do we all believe he's going to sport a LD rate that's double league average (20.8% in 2014)????

His K/9 is actually higher and BB/9 lower than his career averages.

I like tossing cheap shots but there appears to be some race to be able to say I was the 1st guy to say he was a bust.

I want him to win fucking ball games like he's being overpaid to do. When he starts doing that, maybe some of the "over the top" criticism will stop. So far he fucking sucks, end of story.

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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:13 am 
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You're judging a 6 year contract on 4 starts.


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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:16 am 
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badrogue17 wrote:
So far he fucking sucks, end of story.

The unwillingness to admit he was pretty good friday night is puzzling.

I think your idea of what a starting pitcher is got all fucked up from the WINS = everything stance you've adopted.

On Friday, Lester pitched well and the team won.


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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:18 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
badrogue17 wrote:
So far he fucking sucks, end of story.

The unwillingness to admit he was pretty good friday night is puzzling.

I think your idea of what a starting pitcher is got all fucked up from the WINS = everything stance you've adopted.

On Friday, Lester pitched well and the team won.

Because he wasn't pretty good Bryan. Immediately puts his team down in the first fucking inning. They tie it and he gives the lead right back in the next half inning. He had a 4.5 ERA for the game. Thats not pretty good.

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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:18 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
badrogue17 wrote:
So far he fucking sucks, end of story.

The unwillingness to admit he was pretty good friday night is puzzling.

I think your idea of what a starting pitcher is got all fucked up from the WINS = everything stance you've adopted.

On Friday, Lester pitched well and the team won.

Because he wasn't pretty good Bryan. Immediately puts his team down in the first fucking inning. They tie it and he gives the lead right back in the next half inning. He had a 4.5 ERA for the game. Thats not pretty good.

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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:20 am 
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No, he was pretty good. He struck out 10, kept his team in it and gave up 3 runs in a bandbox.

Your idea of what a starting pitcher should be is all messed up from the WINS = Everything stance you've adopted.

You complimented Samardzija last week for winning a game because his offense scored 6 runs. He had the exact same line last year (except he went one more inning) and you criticized him for not getting the Win.

Perfect example of why putting all your eggs in the W-L basket is not a good idea. W-L has it's place and it matters, but its not the only thing to look at.


Last edited by rogers park bryan on Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:25 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:23 am 
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Cubs fans get quickly outraged at anyone who dares to not be a Cubs fan

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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:26 am 
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good dolphin wrote:
Cubs fans get quickly outraged at anyone who dares to not be a Cubs fan

No outrage. Im trying to understand his stance.


I already said, there is no right or wrong. He just has way higher expectations for Jon Lester than I do. I expect he'll be the same Jon Lester he's always been. Friday's start was vintage Lester.


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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:29 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
Cubs fans get quickly outraged at anyone who dares to not be a Cubs fan

No outrage. Im trying to understand his stance.


I already said, there is no right or wrong. He just has way higher expectations for Jon Lester than I do. I expect he'll be the same Jon Lester he's always been. Friday's start was vintage Lester.


Darkskies spent his last 25 posts upset with Cardinals fans

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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:31 am 
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The good(?) news for the Cubs is Lester isn't really blocking anybody. Hendricks, Hammel and probably Wood are all much worse. Hendricks in particular is probably blowing somebody to stay on the 25-man. So if Lester wants to keep sucking at least there's no arm waiting right behind him, there's a strong DFA candidate and fringe 5th starter who can be replaced much more readily.


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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:34 am 
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good dolphin wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
Cubs fans get quickly outraged at anyone who dares to not be a Cubs fan

No outrage. Im trying to understand his stance.


I already said, there is no right or wrong. He just has way higher expectations for Jon Lester than I do. I expect he'll be the same Jon Lester he's always been. Friday's start was vintage Lester.


Darkskies spent his last 25 posts upset with Cardinals fans

I guess I misunderstood your post as Rogue is a Cub fan


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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:34 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
Cubs fans get quickly outraged at anyone who dares to not be a Cubs fan

No outrage. Im trying to understand his stance.


I already said, there is no right or wrong. He just has way higher expectations for Jon Lester than I do. I expect he'll be the same Jon Lester he's always been. Friday's start was vintage Lester.

If vintage Lester pencils out to a 4.5 ERA then he won't win 10 games for them in any season.

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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:35 am 
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good dolphin wrote:
Cubs fans get quickly outraged at anyone who dares to not be a Cubs fan

Image


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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:40 am 
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badrogue17 wrote:
I want him to win fucking ball games like he's being overpaid to do. When he starts doing that, maybe some of the "over the top" criticism will stop. So far he fucking sucks, end of story.

The Cubs are 2-2 in games Lester has started. Let's not get carried away.

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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:41 am 
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badrogue17 wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
Cubs fans get quickly outraged at anyone who dares to not be a Cubs fan

No outrage. Im trying to understand his stance.


I already said, there is no right or wrong. He just has way higher expectations for Jon Lester than I do. I expect he'll be the same Jon Lester he's always been. Friday's start was vintage Lester.

If vintage Lester pencils out to a 4.5 ERA then he won't win 10 games for them in any season.

That's not true. Guys have that ERA and win 10 frequently.

Its hilarious that you are now quoting ERA so much, btw.

We'll see what happens. I dont really want to argue it. He hasnt been great, but friday he looked very good and got the job done.

Agree to disagree


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 Post subject: Re: Cubbies @ Reds
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 9:08 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
Cubs fans get quickly outraged at anyone who dares to not be a Cubs fan

No outrage. Im trying to understand his stance.


I already said, there is no right or wrong. He just has way higher expectations for Jon Lester than I do. I expect he'll be the same Jon Lester he's always been. Friday's start was vintage Lester.


Darkskies spent his last 25 posts upset with Cardinals fans

I guess I misunderstood your post as Rogue is a Cub fan


who?

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