What about the Oaks?

I rarely troll.

My biggest mistake in the past with the Derby is not picking the favorite to win, but instead going for value. After watching a video of A.P. yesterday, I don't see how he'll lose after winning the Arkansas Derby by 11 lengths. He showed no sign of tiring by the end, so he should be able to finish the mile and 1/4 strong. Pedigree for distance matters more in the Belmont than in the Derby. My only concern with A.P. is that he gets stuck in traffic coming from the outside and he is not able to put it into overdrive until the final stretch, when it could be too late.

I don't think any horse has ever won the Derby with Storm Cat that close in his pedigree. Pharoah is all sprint on his dam's side. As impressive as it was, I don't think he beat a whole lot in Arkansas.

And I'll say this, American Pharoah at 2-1 or 5-2 is just a horrible bet. If you win it, great, but it was still a bad bet. You bet horses like him at those odds in fields like this, you lose long term. But we'll see. Maybe he's 4-1 and not quite so bad. I still think there are other horses in here that are going to be longer odds and have better chances to win- Dortmund, Mubtaahij, Carpe Diem, maybe even Bolo.

By Johnny D.

Below is this season’s Kentucky Derby Horse-by-Horse Analysis. At the bottom is a suggested $100 Kentucky Derby wagering strategy.

Regular readers of this space know that I feel strongly that American Pharoah is a special racehorse. That stance brings several obvious questions forward for debate:

Is American Pharoah unbeatable in the Kentucky Derby?
No. Anything can happen during a race. No horse is unbeatable.

Is American Pharoah a good bet to win the Kentucky Derby?
At 2-1 he’s actually not a good bet to win the Kentucky Derby. In a field of 20 horses it’s difficult to take such a short price on any runner. Plus, this year’s Derby crop is outstanding.

If I’m such a big fan of American Pharoah and he’s a bad bet to win the race, how can we make decent money wagering on this year’s Kentucky Derby?
That’s probably the most important question of all and I hope the answer is buried in the exotic wagers I’ve outlined below.

First, here’s a horse-by-horse analysis of this year’s field, including jockeys, trainers, post positions and morning-line odds.

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho Trujillo Cassidy 50-1
Trainer Jim Cassidy politely has made it clear that this colt is here because the owner wants to run in the Kentucky Derby. The horse, according to Cassidy, is doing fine, so why not run him in the race and make the owner happy? Unfortunately, Ocho Ocho Ocho drew the rail and that’s not the place to begin this mile and one-quarter journey. He’s a toss for me.

2. Carpe Diem Velazquez Pletcher 8-1
This once-beaten son of Giant’s Causeway isn’t brilliant, but he hardly can be knocked. His speed figures put him in the mix and his style seems to fit this year’s Derby—he closes from just off the pace. The only loss on his resume occurred in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when he was a well-beaten second to the now injured Texas Red. While not close to the winner that day, Carpe Diem fought hard to get up for second when it would have been easy for him to give up the fight. He does get a bit worked up in the paddock and could unravel before the large crowd on Derby Day. He didn’t get a boost when he drew the number two post position. Don’t like him to win the race, but might use him sparingly in exotics.

3. Materiality Castellano Pletcher 12-1
Here’s a lightly raced (3 starts) unbeaten son of Afleet Alex with plenty of natural talent. He’ll need to overcome the Apollo jinx to win this race—a trend that says a horse must first race as a 2-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby. That curse has been rolling along since 1882, so there just may be something to it. Materiality’s claim to fame is that he won the Florida Derby, traditionally a great steppingstone to the Kentucky Derby. However, his inexperience is a definite disadvantage in a challenging race like this season’s Kentucky Derby. I don’t like him to win and may use him sparingly in exotics, if at all.

4. Tencendur Franco Weaver 30-1
This New York-bred (one of a record three in this year’s Derby) took the lead in the Wood at Aqueduct at a big price and appeared headed for victory before he was run down late by a determined Frosted. That’s the best race on this one’s resume. He was fourth in the Withers and fifth in the Gotham, so he’s been there or thereabouts. However, this is a huge step up. He would be a total shock on the win end and a major surprise in the exotics.

5. Danzig Moon Leparoux Casse 30-1
This son of Malibu Moon hasn’t been able to get in front of Carpe Diem in either of his last two starts. There’s nothing to suggest he will turn the tables on that one in Louisville. Danzig Moon boasts a sharp one-mile maiden score at Gulfstream Park as his only win. It would be a huge surprise if he appeared in the winner’s circle and a surprise to see him in the exotics. He is relatively lightly raced—five starts—so he could have more to give….maybe.

6. Mubtaahij Soumillon de Kock 20-1
The UAE Derby winner ships here from Dubai with plenty of hype. The son of Dubawi has won four of five starts on the dirt and has one second. He looks as if the mile and one-quarter Derby distance will be right up his alley—he’s won at a mile and three-sixteenths. There’s some question about the level of competition he’s been beating in Dubai—pretty much the same two horses. His trainer is top notch and his jockey should be able to handle a Derby stampede. This one’s a tough call. Ultimately, in a year when the US contingent appears as strong as ever, I’m finding it difficult to believe that a horse can ship halfway around the world, change his feed, his groom, his training site, etc., race without Lasix in the most demanding test in this country and emerge victorious. If he does it, I will stand and applaud knowing I have seen one of the great performances of all time. Can he hit the exotics? I suppose he could, but he will not be a major player on any of my tickets. I always said I would make one of these Dubai-based runners beat me before I’d ever consider one in this race. I stick to that belief. Exotic consideration is the best I can do.

7. El Kabeir Borel Terranova 30-1
This colt was the star of the show at Aqueduct this winter. He won the Jerome, was second in the Withers, won the Gotham and was third in the Wood. He’s been a steady performer through nine career starts with four wins, two seconds and two thirds. He’s earned over three-quarters of a million dollars. Multiple Kentucky Derby winning rider Calvin Borel will replace veteran Chuck Lopez in the Kentucky Derby. It should be noted that Borel won with El Kabeir the only time he rode him. This horse has the right style for the Derby, but he seems to be just a cut below the best in a challenging year.

8. Dortmund Garcia Baffert 3-1
He’s unbeaten in six starts. What else do you need to know? He has speed and ought to be close to whatever early pace there is in the Derby. He’s not a speed-crazy horse, though. He grinds steady quarter-mile times at foes and runs them into submission. He has won on the lead and from just off the pace, so he’s versatile. He’s also fast enough on figures to claim title as one of the ones to beat. Hard to knock this one as he deserves win consideration as well as inclusion in exotic plays.

9. Bolo Bejarano Gaines 30-1
He has just two career wins and both of those have come on the turf. Following his last race, a well-beaten third in the Santa Anita Derby, both former jockey Mike Smith and trainer Carla Gaines suggested that this one would be headed back to the grass. Apparently, Bolo’s owners had other plans and here he is in the Kentucky Derby. Actually, he’s not a total toss, as he finished less than two lengths behind Dortmund in the San Felipe, his first try on dirt. Unfortunately, he didn’t follow that effort up with much of a display in the Santa Anita Derby. He’d be a shock for me on the win end and a decent surprise in the exotic picture.

10. Firing Line Stevens Callaghan 12-1
If a horseplayer likes Dortmund—and I do—I have to have respect for Firing Line. The pair dueled in the Los Alamitos Futurity along with Mr. Z in a thrilling three-horse stretch run. Dortmund, on the outside, proved just a head better than Firing Line, who was bounced around a bit between horses. In the Robert Lewis at Santa Anita, Firing Line collared Dortmund early in the stretch and moved a length clear. Amazingly, Dortmund re-rallied on the inside to nail Firing Line right on the line by a head. Now, was that because Dortmund is just better than Firing Line or was Firing Line still learning what the racing game is all about? Firing Line then shipped to Sunland Park and crushed a non-descript field by over 14 lengths in track-record time. There’s not much to dislike about Firing Line. While the mile and one-quarter distance is a question, there’s no doubt he’s a talented runner who must be respected in the exotics.

11. Stanford Geroux Pletcher 30-1
It’s very difficult to make a case for this one’s chances to win the Derby. He has just two lifetime wins—a five-furlong maiden score at Monmouth and a six-furlong allowance sprint at Gulfstream. Also, Stanford appears to have a front-running style that won’t be an advantage in this race.

12. International Star Mena Maker 20-1
He’s not as fast as others in here, but he’s a tiger. He won all three Derby prep races in Louisiana and he did that the old fashioned way, he earned it. Owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey he was a bargain purchase for $85,000. He’s now a millionaire. He’s not pretty in the stretch—changing leads back and forth and sometimes not running in a straight line—but he’s all determination and grit. He’s also got the right style for this race—he waits until late to make his thus far winning move. Doubt he can win, but keep him around in exotics, for sure.

13. Itsaknockout L. Saez Pletcher 30-1
Hopes for this one rose when Upstart was disqualified for interference in the stretch of the Fountain of Youth and this one was placed first. Unfortunately, he didn’t duplicate that effort in the Florida Derby. It’s difficult to get behind this one too strongly on the basis of just one decent effort.

14. Keen Ice Deormeaux Romans 50-1
This one’s closing effort in the Risen Star was strong enough to put him on my radar as a possible exotic price play in the Kentucky Derby. He’s got a closing style that so often comes in handy in Louisville on the first Saturday in May. Trainer Dale Romans has had longshots hit the board in this race before. Romans has stated that he hasn’t ‘squeezed the lemon dry’ yet, but would do so for the Derby. Keen Ice is one-for-one over the Churchill strip. The down side is that he hasn’t run fast enough to put him in the game at this point. It’s true, he’s improving, but he would need a big jump forward to hit the exotics. I’m on the fence with this one—like his style, looking for better in the Derby, but don’t know if he’s quite good enough to hit the exotics. He will be a big price, so I got that going for me…which is nice!

15. Frosted Rosario McLaughlin 15-1
One win and three seconds at two put this one in the soph spotlight. He was a well-beaten second in the Holy Bull before taking the lead in the Fountain of Youth and stopping to a walk in a matter of strides. Trainer McLaughlin made numerous changes to this one’s equipment, including a minor throat procedure. The alterations worked wonders as Frosted took the Wood Memorial in a hand ride. A repeat of that race would put Frosted squarely in the Kentucky Derby win picture. However, it’s difficult to imagine that this colt will be able to immediately repeat such a strong performance. The Wood tally was better than anything else he’s done. We’ll pass on this one in the win position and use him lightly, if at all in the exotics.

16. War Story Talamo Amoss 50-1
This late-running son of Northern Afleet has been either second or third behind fellow Derby entrant War Story on three occasions. Why would that order of finish change in the Kentucky Derby? No real reason I can find to expect a different outcome. War Story would be a huge surprise on the win end and also an upset if he’s in the exotics.

18. American Pharoah Espinoza Baffert 5/2
This son of Pioneerof the Nile has assumed Kentucky Derby favoritism on the basis of a romping eight-length tally in the Arkansas Derby. He proved his affinity for Churchill Downs in a sparkling workout Sunday before the Derby. ‘Pharoah has won four of five starts, losing his first out when off the turn he inexplicably stopped. Following that race, blinkers were removed and cotton was inserted into the colt’s ears for his next outing and the rest has been magic—sort of. Although he hasn’t lost since that first out at Del Mar, American Pharoah was forced to miss the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with a hoof injury. That setback also cost the colt some prep time this winter, but he was fit and ready to gallop in a sloppy Rebel Stakes, winning by over six lengths. Trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Victor Espinoza have won multiple Kentucky Derbies each, so they know what it takes to sniff roses: a very talented horse. American Pharoah is a very, very talented horse.

19. Upstart J. Ortiz Violette 15-1
According to the extremely reliable Thoro-Graph speed figures, this colt consistently has been the fastest of all Derby entrants. He made four starts at two and won two of those, including a third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he was nailed on the money for second by Carpe Diem. This year he has finished first two times and second once from three starts, however, he was disqualified from victory in the Fountain of Youth when he drifted out in the stretch. He battled tooth and nail with Materiality for much of the Florida Derby, finally losing that battle in the final stages. Upstart had a sinus infection and missed a few days of training in mid-April. He’s returned to work well for the Derby. His quality is not in doubt, but there is some question about his ability to effectively go a mile and one-quarter. He’s not a colt I would use in the win position, but he’s certainly one that needs to be seriously considered in the exotics.

20. Far Right Smith Moquette 30-1
He was king in Arkansas until American Pharoah arrived. Far Right won the Smarty Jones and Southwest Stakes with strong closing kicks. He skipped the sloppy Rebel Stakes taken by American Pharoah and then finished a well-beaten second to that foe in the Arkansas Derby. Far Right has the correct running style for this race—he comes from well off the pace and should catch plenty of early speed to set up his closing charge. He’s one of those improving types who often hit the Derby exotics at big prices. No matter if you are using Beyer Speed Figures or Thoro-Graph numbers, you detect a healthy, improving pattern in Far Right. However, he will need to take a big step forward to contend. Far Right has raced three times at Churchill with a win, a second and a third. Unless they get really speed crazy up front he’s not really fast enough to threaten for the win. However, if he improves a bit more and if the pace suits his closing style, he could get a piece of the exotics at a big number.

Bottom Line:

Strictly One to Beat
18-American Pharoah

Most Likely Upsetter
8-Dortmund

Exotic Price Plays
12-International Star, 10-Firing Line, 20-Far Right, 19-Upstart


$100 Kentucky Derby Wagering Strategy

$1 Trifecta (Total $96)
First: 18-American Pharoah

Second: 2-Carpe Diem 6-Mubtaahij 7-El Kabeir, 8-Dortmund, 10-Firing Line, 12-International Star, 19-Upstart, 20-Far Right

Third: 2-Carpe Diem, 3-Materiality 5-Danzig Moon, 6-Mubtaahij, 7-El Kabeir, 8-Dortmund, 9-Bolo, 10-Firing Line, 12-International Star, 14-Keen Ice, 15-Frosted, 19-Upstart, 20-Far Right

Race On!

####

I rarely troll.

I rarely troll.

I rarely troll.

Should be noted that with the scratch, American Pharoah will now be sent from Gate #17 (although he'll still be 18 in the Programs..)

Gate #17 is 0 for 36 in the Derby History.

I was curious about this, so they move the horses outside of him down a gate and he gets the outside post?

I rarely troll.

It's a bad bet at 2-1 or 5-2 only if you don't win.

Yeah since Stanford was #11, that means everyone in from the original 12-20 moves in one.

Fuck, I could be wrong.

Ahmed Zayat ‏@jazz3162 1m1 minute ago
Damn now I get the 17 hole. I was ecstatic about 18. No winners have come from the 17 hole. I guess AP has to be the 1st

I rarely troll.

I rarely troll.

Joe, no. Oh no, Joe. Say it ain't so. Joe!

Seriously, that's the thing about betting horses. You know you're going to lose a lot of the time. You have to bet vlaue to make profit. Most people bet lunch money on winners and rent money on losers. Because the collective isn't stupid. Everyone can see how good AP and Dortmund are. I don't think the risk is worth the potential reward.

Take a horse like Mubtaahij, yeah he's trying to do something that hasn't been done. But he's going to be upward of 15-1 and I think his chances are a lot better than that. He fits on speed figs. He has the right running style. He has the right pedigree. And most of all, he's already gone further than 1-1/8th miles twice. No other horse in the field has done that.

I'm certainly not telling you how to bet. And if you make one bet a year, I suppose what you say might be true. But to clarify, AP at 2-1 in this race is a bad bet in the same way the yo-leven is on a craps table. Sure, guys walk up and toss $100 on there and win fifteen hundo sometimes. That doesn't change the fact that it was a bad bet. The true odds are 17-1.

I don't believe that if they ran this race 99 times, AP would win 33 times. That's what you would have to believe to feel like 2-1 was a fair price. Fuck, I could be wrong. Maybe this horse is Secretariat.

I understand what you're saying---there's no value in A.P. with 2-1 odds in a 20 horse race, where anything can happen and does happen. But, as I was saying, you shouldn't out-think yourself with the favorite. In the last five derbys, the favorite or one of them has won three times (California Chrome, Orb, Animal Kingdom). I don't remember whether Super Saver was the favorite in 2010. I'll Have Another was a long-shot in 2012, so let's call that the anomaly. If you miss the winner, then all your exactas and trifectas are blown, unless you're playing boxes. If A.P. wins, you can still get good odds in the exactas and trifectas.

After what American Pharoah did in the Arkansas Derby, you have to pick him to win. He can't be any less of a favorite than California Chrome was.

Did Baffert ever say which horse he thought was better between A.P. and Dortmund?

Mubtaahij just did't like him working at Arlington...why not Churchill???????

His "A" rider has Dortmund though.

I rarely troll.