We have same age, real world data on both players. There is no need for scouting.

As an example, in Starlin Castro's age 21 year (his second year in the league already) he hit .307/.341/.432. He was an All Star and received votes for MVP.

Russell rookie year at age 21 is .242/.299/.388

If you want to dismiss it as a rookie learning curve, I'd refer you to Starlin's rookie year, which is still light years better than Russell.

Have you people forgotten how good Castro was? Addison Russell couldn't hold the jock of old school Starlin.

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Russel's OPS is 100 points higher in the second half.


Putrid is a little strong, I think

Those are fighting words. When I see you at the next board meeting you're goin down.

Castro was an excellent hitter. The power never really showed up.

Russel's OPS in the second half is .751. Castro is .717 for his career and the highest he ever finished was .777

All that means is that Castro developed faster and then hit a plateau. Players don't all develop at the same rate. Anyone watching this season closely, can see the increased development of Russell in recent weeks and the increased power. Castro hit for a good average, but never has had good power numbers even hitting in the 3 hole.

_________________
Go Cubs!!!!

Castro's "plateau" was of a level where people were making "more hits by age ____ than" hall of famers statements.

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

You really want to credit the projections that say Castro would be a great hitter while advocating an 89 OPS+ rookie take his job and that isn't having it both ways?

There are far more guys that don't make it than guys that do. That's a fact. I'm not sure how you can argue about it. You're fascinated by prospects. That's part of the way you enjoy the game. That's fine. But when a "great" guy busts you don't sit around talking about it, you just move on to the next "great" prospect.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

Why do you think his second half is the real him rather than the first?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

Obviously because some guy on some TV show told me. Duh!

_________________
Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

The same people who are projecting Russell to be great projected Castro as a 20+ homer guy.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

I'm not saying Russell won't be great. He might. I just don't think anyone posting in this forum is sure what he will be and there are various guys who make millions to project what he may be and they don't all agree on what that is.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

It's really a mystery to me how this guy can suck in '13,have a great '14 and suck in '15. What's the diff?

Rick Renteria!

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favrefan said:"Chris Coghlan isn't gonna pay your rent, Jimmy."

Seriously, that's most guys. They have good years and bad years. The ones that put together twenty great years are in the Hall of Fame. Put together 15 decent years in a White Sox uniform, you might get a statue at U.S. Cellular Field.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

I never said that. Although, right now Russell is probably the better option overall when you consider the fielding.


Yes, that is a fact that you twist to try and act like all projections are bullshit. Which they are clearly not.



Why would I sit around talking about a guy that is out of baseball? I understand what prospects are and what the percentages are. I acknowledge that many top prospects bust. But you dont acknowlege that many of them dont and there is some value to scouting and projections.

Im not the crazy one here. You're the one being extreme and dismissing an entire industry because it doesnt have perfect results.

And you're hypocritical too, because I know you were glad to get Rodon in the draft and you had probably never seen him pitch. Certainly not enough to have any opinion that wasnt dependant on scouting and projections.


Anyway, time will tell. Just like it has with Rizzo and Harper.

Never said it was.

Im just saying what I would say if I were attempting to make the argument Steve was.

Although, I am aware that most players struggle at first at the MLB level. That seems lost on many here.

Come the fuck on.

So now after all that Russell might be great? and you're basing this on what? Projections?

I'm not dismissing all scouting. Some scouts thought Jose Quintana wasn't worth keeping. Other scouts wanted to get him. They're right and wrong all the time. I would agree that consensus means something, although oftentimes everybody's "can't miss" does, in fact, miss.

Honest to God, I never thought about Carlos Rodon for one second. I just don't follow the game that way. When I was a kid I heard my old man talk about how Bee-Bee Richard was going to replace Aparacio. I remember Mike Colbern was the consenus to be the next Johnny Bench. Danny Goodwin was the first pick in the draft coming out of high school and then four years later. I've seen too may "can't miss" guys bust to worry about the next one until he's doing it at the big league level.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

I'm not basing it on anything. I don't know what will happen. I'm pretty sure I'm as good at predicting the future as you, that is to say, not any good at all.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

I dont know what were arguing about then. I've never said projections are gospel. You asked why someone would think Russell is better and I answered.

Right, but it's really just parroting something someone else said. I'm sure there's some scout somewhere that has a strong belief in Tyler Saladino. If I read a blog post by that guy, I might be saying the shit Steve is saying about Russell about Saladino. I just don't put stock in it.

And as I pointed out, there's obvious bias. If Beane or Epstein believe in a guy, the "analysts" give that more weight. And maybe those two guys have earned such respect, but that isn't real analysis of a player. For example, I read all kinds of things about Jose Abreu's bat, how great it was, how it would translate to MLB, not one bad thing about him as an offensive player, then suddenly the Sox signed him and I started reading his bat was "slow". That's just bias. Disrespect for the White Sox as an organization, perhaps earned, perhaps not, but bad analysis. In fact, not really analysis at all since the player didn't actually change.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

But the overwhelming majority do like Russell. Its not just one guy's opinion.

As I said, consensus is meaningful, but still not that meaningful. (Danny Goodwin number 1 two times.) We don't know if Russell is any good. We know guys who get paid to be "experts" think he will be. He's supposed to be good. Whether he actually is will be decided on the field. Now that he's playing in the big leagues we no longer need to rely on what anyone else says. Castro has shown you he can be good over long stretches. To me, that's more meaningful than projections.

It's really no different than horse racing. The horse that costs $350,000 is supposed to be better than the one that costs $10,000. That often isn't the case when they hit the racetrack.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

66% of players drafted in the 1st round make it to the big leagues. After the first round, each subsequent round features a significant dropoff in the chances of reaching the major leagues.

For those players drafted in the second round of the draft, the chances of reaching the major leagues drops to 49%.

Rounds 3-5 are a major turning point where the odds begin to drastically decrease, as only 32% of players drafted reach the majors.

And the likelihood of playing in the major leagues continues to worsen, as only 20% of players drafted in Rounds 6-10 reach the majors.

The odds nearly slice in half from Rounds 6-10, as only 11 percent of players drafted in Rounds 11-20 reach the big leagues.

the chances of a player drafted after the 21st round reaching the major leagues is a slim seven percent.

You have the best CHANCE at an All-Star player if you draft him in the 1st round. Every round later your odds of producing an all-star player drops significantly.

The "core" of the Cubs prospects are all first rounders. We HOPE they become All-Stars because of the increase chance that they will. Not sure why you have a hard time understanding that.

This post is McCarveresque.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

Your post is very Hawk Harrelsonesque
So you think a player drafted in rounds 5-10+ has the same chance to become an all-star as a player drafted in the 1st round?

ChicagoCubsOnline retweeted
Christopher Kamka ‏@ckamka 8m8 minutes ago

Starlin Castro: 20 for 47 (.426), 3 HR, 7 RBI in last 16 games.
4 straight multi-hit starts #Cubs

Did the benching get his head right or does the time off help him? I am thinking the time off and no pressure on him is a huge help for him to make an impact. Might not say much for him in the long run, jusy cant handle the day to day grind, but I am content with this guys "CONTRIBUTE" off the bench.

_________________
"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

Except he handled it just fine for half a decade. The dude had a bad four months. It could happen to anyone.

_________________
Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

Helps his trade value.

His many lapses in judgement happened all the time, while he was a FT guy as well. he just had a higher BA...

_________________
"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”