After 9 years do they raise it a 1/4 tomorrow?

Its a YES or NO question, as I am sick of listening to experts says that if they dont they will in a future meeting.

_________________
"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

I am a yes even though there are compelling reasons not to raise rates. Low interest rates have created a ton of economic distortions and misplaced incentives. The key will be the Fed statement talking about the pace of interest rate increases, which should be quite slow and measured.

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You

I am saying NO, only because they want to do so at the next meeting and then see what happens in 2016. They dont want the shock for the few months, then everyone leaves town in November and the market is just dead because 37 people control the worlds wealth and they run to the Hamptons for Thanksgiving to Xmas, so they can oversee the "closeup" of the "Hamp House" until the spring. These are issues that are such a headache to the 1%, YOU DONT EVEN KNOW.

_________________
"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

NO.

_________________

My guy says Yes.

Yes

_________________
2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

The reason I am guessing now is to take the uncertainty out of the market. If they leave it for December, then we are back to the yes or no in December. I think they will take the hit now, and say that any additional increases will not come until 2016.

But Yellen is as dovish as they come.

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You

It's needed, but they won't do it with the current market volatility.

Next meeting: maybe.

_________________
Not a mult.

I will agree that Now or December, it WILL NOT be the first of many to come....They will wait at least a year to see what happens before raised again.

_________________
"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

Boers vibe.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Except that his guy is saying it before the announcement.

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You

Many experts think the uncertainty is creating more volatility. But yes there are plenty of reasons to wait, none of which are correct. They have wrecked the balance of the fixed income markets and pushed equity prices to unreasonable levels.

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You

what will happen first a fed increase or a cutler game winning drive?

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

No

_________________

I'm hearing that from my guy too.

_________________

My guy is an Italian Sox fan so...

I'm hearing that Yellen is very, very, very, very, very, very upset.

_________________

No. Inertia is the natural state of government organizations

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

MAYBE a .25 raise. But why bother with that? It's all about the stock market now.

Any appreciable hikes will blow a hole through the Federal budget and raise debt interest payments...~300 billion per year at the moment...every hike will blow that up. Mortgages, cheap car loans....

Plus you have pension funds that need a guaranteed return.

A return to 5% or thereabouts is a pipe dream. Never again in our lifetimes.

If anything they do more QE to juice the markets and really crush the non-wealthy.

My gut tells me NO. All they can do is play the PR game now. It's over.

The market will tank if they don't raise rates. It's built in already

_________________

Not a snowball's chance. Not happening. Not this time. Not even this year.

Probably never, ever again.

They've painted themselves into quite corner.

I am sensing that as well. It used to be the Fed's dual mandate was minimizing unemployment and keeping prices/inflation stable, but last year I saw Bill Gross mention that a third nebulous element, "financial conditions," was also creeping in as a third (if unofficial) factor. If the stock market drops, the "wealth effect" goes with it, people spend less, yada yada (forget the fact that the rise in the stock market due to zero rate policy is the biggest reason for income inequality...but they don't want you to know that). Add in the fear of emerging markets crumbling, and there are a plethora of excuses they will fall back on to postpone yet again. I think the only question is whether/when QE4 will be announced.

_________________

Think so?

Yes, I don't have a link handy, but I think it was proven that most (but not all) of the increase in the gap over the last several years was due to capital gains, not wages. (And as you know, not only have capital gains exploded due to ZIRP, but they are also taxed at a lower rate, which aggravates the issue even more.)

_________________

Rich and upper middle class folks make more from variable compensation (stock options and bonuses) than salaries. Then you add in the increase in their wealth from a rising stock market, and that is one of the big drivers with income inequality.

The disparity in wealth is directly related to the stock market and rising asset prices. The disparity in pay is partially so.

Have any of you guys ever looked at the proxy statement compensation tables of public companies? Executives don't receive tens of millions from salaries. It is all variable compensation.



Comp table on page 47

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/ ... def14a.htm

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You

variable compensation package of CEO:
-if company does well you make a shit-ton of money
-if company does poorly you make a shit-ton of money

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

It's part of the reason the quarter to quarter/ share price fixation process has taken over and ruined companies.

Funny you say that, and it seems like the case. I actually was reviewing a company today where the executives did not get bonuses for two years straight, and they came up just short on their targets. I rarely see that.


My point is that stock related compensation goes up in value directly with the stock market. Those comp tables will show the grant date fair value of the stock options. But if the stock doesn't move, the options are worthless. So when the market runs like it has due to the Fed's low interest rate policy, those executives are gaining substantial amounts of additional wealth.

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You

Yes, MBA programs teach that you want to align executives with shareholders, so they suggest stock options. However, that does not eliminate the agency problem, especially the short term thinking of executives. Executives tend to win no matter what with the only thing in question is the degree of their gains.

I can tell you long term cash bonus plans absolutely align management with shareholders....

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You