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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:16 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
IMU wrote:
I don't understand the last several posts.


Kirkwood said road/home win percentages in baseball are nearly meaningless.

Rick's alter ego, THE INQUISITOR, agreed and even gave the percentages - 53/47 - which validated Kirkwood's statement.

Rick and JORR laughed and made fun of INQUISITOR.

I agreed with Kirkwood's statement and took a passive-aggressive swipe at pittmike.
A 6% better chance of winning is meaningless to you?


You left out an adverb. Do you know what it was?

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:16 pm 
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Kirkwood wrote:
What is this 53% chance based on? Playoffs games? Elimination games? Regular season games?

What I do know is for play in games the home team is 2-4. 33%

Cubs were right to play at Pittsburgh. Unless they're dumb for wanting a 66% chance of winning!?!?!!
This and your thought that Bryant actually hurts the Cubs chances of winning are causing you to have a tough thread.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:18 pm 
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Kirkwood wrote:
Cubs went 5-3 (.625 ball) in his absence and received an extra year of control. With Bryant they went 92-62 (.600 ball).

Plus, home field is nearly meaningless in baseball.

Other than that the article was great.


the meaninglessness of it is yet to be determined as the importance of being at home for many other games provides no insight to the importance of being at home for this game

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:20 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
You left out an adverb. Do you know what it was?
Nearly doesn't change the thought much.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:20 pm 
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THE INQUISITOR wrote:
Kirkwood wrote:
home field is nearly meaningless in baseball.


You are correct

Home team 53% win percent Visitor 47% nearly a coin flip.


Ummm, that is not a coin flip. 6% is a statistically significant advantage.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:27 pm 
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I only care about the Cubs 6% of the time.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:33 pm 
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:34 pm 
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still waiting to be shown how holding down bryant "made a difference"....


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:37 pm 
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Both road teams are minus 110..home field means very little in most places.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:38 pm 
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I stand by that he should have been here on Day 1.

Can't say if it would have made this difference or not but he was the best 3B on the roster on Opening Day and he wasn't here for far-distant financial reasons.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:38 pm 
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You have to understand that this thread was created well before I was sending thoughts and prayers the Cubs way. While it is humorous to look back to see some fans foolishly chasing their tails to prove me wrong, I want the world to know that this does not accurately represent my hopes for Cubs success over the next few weeks. While I may have originally questioned the Theology behind the move to keep him in the minors, I now understand it was a brilliant move by hatched months in advance by management to let the Pirates think they had an advantage by playing at home. Theo plays chess while I play checkers.

Go Cubs. Go Cats.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:40 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
You left out an adverb. Do you know what it was?
Nearly doesn't change the thought much.


6% isn't "that much."

So I think "nearly" changes it enough.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:40 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
I stand by that he should have been here on Day 1.

Can't say if it would have made this difference or not but he was the best 3B on the roster on Opening Day and he wasn't here for far-distant financial reasons.

that makes two of us.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:42 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
You left out an adverb. Do you know what it was?
Nearly doesn't change the thought much.


6% isn't "that much."

So I think "nearly" changes it enough.


Neither of us are statisticians so us debating 6% is just two novices blabbering. It really looks bad when a man of numbers like Kirkwood defends its meaninglessness.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:42 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
You have to understand that this thread was created well before I was sending thoughts and prayers the Cubs way. While it is humorous to look back to see some fans foolishly chasing their tails to prove me wrong, I want the world to know that this does not accurately represent my hopes for Cubs success over the next few weeks. While I may have originally questioned the Theology behind the move to keep him in the minors, I now understand it was a brilliant move by hatched months in advance by management to let the Pirates think they had an advantage by playing at home. Theo plays chess while I play checkers.

Go Cubs. Go Cats.

that's a lot of words saying nothing.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:42 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
You left out an adverb. Do you know what it was?
Nearly doesn't change the thought much.


6% isn't "that much."

So I think "nearly" changes it enough.


How would you like it if your home mortgage rate was 6% larger? How about your penis?

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:43 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
You left out an adverb. Do you know what it was?
Nearly doesn't change the thought much.


6% isn't "that much."

So I think "nearly" changes it enough.
Well, lots of people seemed very interested in catching the Pirates to get the game at home. Why didn't you and Kirkwood tell them all that it was nearly meaningless?

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:44 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
You left out an adverb. Do you know what it was?
Nearly doesn't change the thought much.


6% isn't "that much."

So I think "nearly" changes it enough.
Well, lots of people seemed very interested in catching the Pirates to get the game at home. Why didn't you and Kirkwood tell them all that it was nearly meaningless?

I screamed that at my TV every night. They ushered me to the bedroom after awhile.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:45 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
You left out an adverb. Do you know what it was?
Nearly doesn't change the thought much.


6% isn't "that much."

So I think "nearly" changes it enough.
Well, lots of people seemed very interested in catching the Pirates to get the game at home. Why didn't you and Kirkwood tell them all that it was nearly meaningless?

if i had ticket it wouldn't have been meaningless. i could've made nice buck.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:46 pm 
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If Theo's college of stat nerds were plugging away at their computers and determined that was one area that gave the team a 6% better chance of winning, do you think they would be running to Theo with that information? Would Theo be passing it down to Maddon? Would Maddon be adding it to his game plan? Would us Cubs fan be calling him a genius if they won based in part to the magic 6% advantage their computers identified?

Guys, I am now on the same page as you. You don't have to fight me. The Cubs will still win.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:49 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
You left out an adverb. Do you know what it was?
Nearly doesn't change the thought much.


6% isn't "that much."

So I think "nearly" changes it enough.


How would you like it if your home mortgage rate was 6% larger? How about your penis?




:lol:

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:49 pm 
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City of Fools wrote:
I screamed that at my TV every night. They ushered me to the bedroom after awhile.


Image

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:50 pm 
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the fixation on 6% when no context is known....


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:50 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
You left out an adverb. Do you know what it was?
Nearly doesn't change the thought much.


6% isn't "that much."

So I think "nearly" changes it enough.
Well, lots of people seemed very interested in catching the Pirates to get the game at home. Why didn't you and Kirkwood tell them all that it was nearly meaningless?





Bad^


Every Cub fan I'm aware of has known for 45 plus days its coming down to Cole v Arietta and it doesn't really matter where its played.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:51 pm 
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Kirkwood wrote:
the fixation on 6% when no context is known....


There are so many people who look bad in this thread. You don't have to be one of them.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:53 pm 
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There is a legitimate line of thinking that they are better off on the road


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:57 pm 
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I wanted to see the game at Wrigley because I thought it would be fun to see Wrigley rocking for such a big game.

I don't think it would really give them an advantage in the game. Arrieta pitching gives them more of an advantage than where the game is located.

And as RPB mentioned, being on the road could have advantages as well. They are together and focused on the job at hand, not at home with all the distractions of family, friends, etc

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:59 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
Kirkwood wrote:
the fixation on 6% when no context is known....


There are so many people who look bad in this thread. You don't have to be one of them.



Coming from king of the trolls, too funny. The Cubs have the 3rd best record in baseball, made the playoffs, and have an extra year of control with Bryant. It could not have worked out much better relative to any reasonable expectation on their 2015 season. And yet you fools still have things to gripe about with the way the Cubs handled their roster.

It is you and your legion of Cub trolls that looks really bad.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:59 pm 
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My fellow north siders, the model was tested and retested. It held up to scrutiny. It was proven to be accurate both in theory and then in practice. We shall chalk it up as a misstep by Theo, albeit a trifling one. The greatness of Theo is that out of this mistake, he became an even better GM, as he showed his evolution on the subject by bringing up Schwarber prematurely to great success. I can only hope that my metrics provided the support needed to make this the championship season I know it will be.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:00 pm 
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312player wrote:
Every Cub fan I'm aware of has known for 45 plus days its coming down to Cole v Arietta and it doesn't really matter where its played.
At least look at the Cubs section before posting things like this. Present some sort of challenge please.

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