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Kirkwood
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:00 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
There is a legitimate line of thinking that they are better off on the road


Since 2005 the Cubs have a 0% winning percentage at home in the playoffs
Since 2000 the Cubs have a 22% winning percentage at home in the playoffs
Since 1980 the Cubs have a 36% winning percentage at home in the playoffs
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denisdman
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:01 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
My fellow north siders, the model was tested and retested. It held up to scrutiny. It was proven to be accurate both in theory and then in practice. We shall chalk it up as a misstep by Theo, albeit a trifling one. The greatness of Theo is that out of this mistake, he became an even better GM, as he showed his evolution on the subject by bringing up Schwarber prematurely to great success. I can only hope that my metrics provided the support needed to make this the championship season I know it will be.


LOL, you're trying way too hard. But that's why we love you. The Cubs will be playing on Wednesday, while you'll simply be playing with yourself.

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City of Fools
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:04 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
There is a legitimate line of thinking that they are better off on the road

the guy that won't benefit, ironically is Bryant. But it shouldn't matter.

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leashyourkids
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:07 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
You left out an adverb. Do you know what it was?
Nearly doesn't change the thought much.


6% isn't "that much."

So I think "nearly" changes it enough.


How would you like it if your home mortgage rate was 6% larger? How about your penis?


Well, those aren't "odds" situations so they're not a very good barometer. In odds situations, one percentage point one way means a drop in percentage the other way.

For the second example, I think that my argument that 6% doesn't change it that much holds up. When you're big, you're big, bro.

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leashyourkids
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:09 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
You left out an adverb. Do you know what it was?
Nearly doesn't change the thought much.


6% isn't "that much."

So I think "nearly" changes it enough.
Well, lots of people seemed very interested in catching the Pirates to get the game at home. Why didn't you and Kirkwood tell them all that it was nearly meaningless?


It's funny you say that. Among friends, I've been saying just that for weeks. That's why you weren't aware.

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leashyourkids
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:11 pm 
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I will also let it slide that you are representing the difference as 6%. From the Cubs perspective "meaningless" would be 50%. As a road team, they would be at 47% (assuming the stat is right.) That's a 3% difference.

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FavreFan
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:12 pm 
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Pretty funny to hear Cub fans try to argue their way around the 6% thing (which is actually about 8%). It's impossible to argue that number is statistically irrelevant.

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Brick
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:13 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
I will also let it slide that you are representing the difference as 6%. From the Cubs perspective "meaningless" would be 50%. As a road team, they would be at 47% (assuming the stat is right.) That's a 3% difference.
You'll let it slide because it is completely accurate.

Out of 100 chances, the home team will win 6 more times. That is 6%.

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good dolphin
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:13 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
Kirkwood wrote:
the fixation on 6% when no context is known....


There are so many people who look bad in this thread. You don't have to be one of them.



Coming from king of the trolls, too funny. The Cubs have the 3rd best record in baseball, made the playoffs, and have an extra year of control with Bryant. It could not have worked out much better relative to any reasonable expectation on their 2015 season. And yet you fools still have things to gripe about with the way the Cubs handled their roster.

It is you and your legion of Cub trolls that looks really bad.


Everything you said is irrelevant to the discussion. The fact is that it could have worked out a little bit better and it was failure on both the baseball on business side that prevented it from happening. I know the Cubs will win on Wednesday but it would have taxed the team less and been better for the entire city if they had done so at home.

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City of Fools
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:14 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
Pretty funny to hear Cub fans try to argue their way around the 6% thing (which is actually about 8%). It's impossible to argue that number is statistically irrelevant.

the better argument is that a properly pitching Arrieta makes percentages irrelevant.

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Brick
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:14 pm 
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City of Fools wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Pretty funny to hear Cub fans try to argue their way around the 6% thing (which is actually about 8%). It's impossible to argue that number is statistically irrelevant.

the better argument is that a properly pitching Arrieta makes percentages irrelevant.
:lol: Oh boy.

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FavreFan
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:15 pm 
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City of Fools wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Pretty funny to hear Cub fans try to argue their way around the 6% thing (which is actually about 8%). It's impossible to argue that number is statistically irrelevant.

the better argument is that a properly pitching Arrieta makes percentages irrelevant.

No, that's dumb too. If Arrieta pitches as well as has been, the Cubs should rightly be favored to win, but there is nothing that invalidates the small, but real, advantage that home field gives.

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312player
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:16 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
My fellow north siders, the model was tested and retested. It held up to scrutiny. It was proven to be accurate both in theory and then in practice. We shall chalk it up as a misstep by Theo, albeit a trifling one. The greatness of Theo is that out of this mistake, he became an even better GM, as he showed his evolution on the subject by bringing up Schwarber prematurely to great success. I can only hope that my metrics provided the support needed to make this the championship season I know it will be.













The Polish runs deep in this one.

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8675309
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:17 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
Pretty funny to hear Cub fans try to argue their way around the 6% thing (which is actually about 8%). It's impossible to argue that number is statistically irrelevant.


Image

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good dolphin
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:17 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
My fellow north siders, the model was tested and retested. It held up to scrutiny. It was proven to be accurate both in theory and then in practice. We shall chalk it up as a misstep by Theo, albeit a trifling one. The greatness of Theo is that out of this mistake, he became an even better GM, as he showed his evolution on the subject by bringing up Schwarber prematurely to great success. I can only hope that my metrics provided the support needed to make this the championship season I know it will be.


LOL, you're trying way too hard. But that's why we love you. The Cubs will be playing on Wednesday, while you'll simply be playing with yourself.


I have said for several days now that I will be watching the game cheering for my Cubs. However, as a practitioner of the erotic arts, I find absolutely nothing wrong with a night spent as you have described.

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good dolphin
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:18 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
There is a legitimate line of thinking that they are better off on the road


not legitimate, but you'll find some who hold that thought

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denisdman
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:18 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
denisdman wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
My fellow north siders, the model was tested and retested. It held up to scrutiny. It was proven to be accurate both in theory and then in practice. We shall chalk it up as a misstep by Theo, albeit a trifling one. The greatness of Theo is that out of this mistake, he became an even better GM, as he showed his evolution on the subject by bringing up Schwarber prematurely to great success. I can only hope that my metrics provided the support needed to make this the championship season I know it will be.


LOL, you're trying way too hard. But that's why we love you. The Cubs will be playing on Wednesday, while you'll simply be playing with yourself.


I have said for several days now that I will be watching the game cheering for my Cubs. However, as a practitioner of the erotic arts, I find absolutely nothing wrong with a night spent as you have described.


Good stuff all the way around. Enjoy the game and yourself!

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Kirkwood
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:21 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
City of Fools wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Pretty funny to hear Cub fans try to argue their way around the 6% thing (which is actually about 8%). It's impossible to argue that number is statistically irrelevant.

the better argument is that a properly pitching Arrieta makes percentages irrelevant.

No, that's dumb too. If Arrieta pitches as well as has been, the Cubs should rightly be favored to win, but there is nothing that invalidates the small, but real, advantage that home field gives.

@PNC - Cubs 6-4
@WRIGLEY - Cubs 5-4

Cubs better at PNC in 2015.
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:22 pm 
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One thing is certain.

The Cubs have, at least, a 47% better chance of winning a playoff game tomorrow than the White Sox do.

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City of Fools
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:24 pm 
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Kirkwood wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
City of Fools wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Pretty funny to hear Cub fans try to argue their way around the 6% thing (which is actually about 8%). It's impossible to argue that number is statistically irrelevant.

the better argument is that a properly pitching Arrieta makes percentages irrelevant.

No, that's dumb too. If Arrieta pitches as well as has been, the Cubs should rightly be favored to win, but there is nothing that invalidates the small, but real, advantage that home field gives.

@PNC - Cubs 6-4
@WRIGLEY - Cubs 5-4

Cubs better at PNC in 2015.

don't talk statistics! Talk more statistics!

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denisdman
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:26 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
One thing is certain.

The Cubs have, at least, a 47% better chance of winning a playoff game tomorrow than the White Sox do.


Your perspective is always appreciated.

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good dolphin
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:26 pm 
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312player wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
My fellow north siders, the model was tested and retested. It held up to scrutiny. It was proven to be accurate both in theory and then in practice. We shall chalk it up as a misstep by Theo, albeit a trifling one. The greatness of Theo is that out of this mistake, he became an even better GM, as he showed his evolution on the subject by bringing up Schwarber prematurely to great success. I can only hope that my metrics provided the support needed to make this the championship season I know it will be.













The Polish runs deep in this one.


I'm a good natured guy so I will take that as a compliment.

If it were intended another way, such as a perpetuation of a stereotype that Polish people are stupid, I would take off my internet glove, strike you across the face with it, throw it down on the ground and challenge you to a duel of comparative intelligences at dawn on the morn.

but I like to believe the best of others so, as a proud son of the people of the field, I thank you for recognizing my heritage

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Last edited by good dolphin on Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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FavreFan
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:27 pm 
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Kirkwood wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
City of Fools wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Pretty funny to hear Cub fans try to argue their way around the 6% thing (which is actually about 8%). It's impossible to argue that number is statistically irrelevant.

the better argument is that a properly pitching Arrieta makes percentages irrelevant.

No, that's dumb too. If Arrieta pitches as well as has been, the Cubs should rightly be favored to win, but there is nothing that invalidates the small, but real, advantage that home field gives.

@PNC - Cubs 6-4
@WRIGLEY - Cubs 5-4

Cubs better at PNC in 2015.

SSS

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leashyourkids
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:29 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
I will also let it slide that you are representing the difference as 6%. From the Cubs perspective "meaningless" would be 50%. As a road team, they would be at 47% (assuming the stat is right.) That's a 3% difference.
You'll let it slide because it is completely accurate.

Out of 100 chances, the home team will win 6 more times. That is 6%.


If home field were completely meaningless, how many games would the away team win out of 100, on average?

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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:31 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
I will also let it slide that you are representing the difference as 6%. From the Cubs perspective "meaningless" would be 50%. As a road team, they would be at 47% (assuming the stat is right.) That's a 3% difference.
You'll let it slide because it is completely accurate.

Out of 100 chances, the home team will win 6 more times. That is 6%.


If home field were completely meaningless, how many games would the away team win out of 100, on average?


Ooooh, standard deviation talk! I love it!

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312player
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:32 pm 
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So cubs have a higher win % @ PNC √
They are favored @ minus 110√
The Home team is 2-4 in Mlb play in games√
Both road teams are favored for this years play in games..After the Cubs and Astros win it will be home team 2-6 for play in games- 25% winning percentage.. Home field in MLB playoff games means absolutely nothing.

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leashyourkids
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:34 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
I will also let it slide that you are representing the difference as 6%. From the Cubs perspective "meaningless" would be 50%. As a road team, they would be at 47% (assuming the stat is right.) That's a 3% difference.
You'll let it slide because it is completely accurate.

Out of 100 chances, the home team will win 6 more times. That is 6%.


If home field were completely meaningless, how many games would the away team win out of 100, on average?


Ooooh, standard deviation talk! I love it!


I'm actually on vacation this week and out fishing today. The fact that I am in a statistics debate on my phone is proof that technology is the devil.

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Rod
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:34 pm 
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312player wrote:
So cubs have a higher win % @ PNC √
They are favored @ minus 110√
The Home team is 2-4 in Mlb play in games√
Both road teams are favored for this years play in games..After the Cubs and Astros win it will be home team 2-6 for play in games- 25% winning percentage.. Home field in MLB playoff games means absolutely nothing.


Maybe the Cubs should sell Wrigley for condos and play all their games on the road.

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Brick
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:37 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
If home field were completely meaningless, how many games would the away team win out of 100, on average?
50.

If the odds were 99-1 what would the difference in the percentage be? Would it be 49%?

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good dolphin
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:39 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
I will also let it slide that you are representing the difference as 6%. From the Cubs perspective "meaningless" would be 50%. As a road team, they would be at 47% (assuming the stat is right.) That's a 3% difference.
You'll let it slide because it is completely accurate.

Out of 100 chances, the home team will win 6 more times. That is 6%.


If home field were completely meaningless, how many games would the away team win out of 100, on average?


Ooooh, standard deviation talk! I love it!


Image

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